SECURING FLORIDA’S FUTURE [email protected] #FL20301
Presented to:Florida Economic Development Council
Presented by:John Kaliski
Cambridge Systematics, Inc.
May 8, 2017
SECURING FLORIDA’S FUTURE [email protected] #FL2030
Developing Blueprint for Florida’s Future2017 – Florida Jobs 2030 2016 – From Excuses to Excellence 2016 – Strategic Look at Medical Tourism 2013 – Florida Trade and Logistics Study 2.0 2011 – Immigration and Florida’s Economy 2010 – Florida Trade and Logistics Study 2010 – Closing the Talent Gap 2007 – New Cornerstone Revisited 2006 – Florida Summit on Affordable Living 2003 – New Cornerstone: Foundations for Florida’s Economy into the 21st Century 1999 – Transportation Cornerstone Florida 1997 – International Cornerstone Florida 1994 – No More Excuses: What Business Must Do To Improve Florida’s Schools 1991 – Enterprise Florida: Partnership for a Competitive Economy 1990 – Crossroads: Designing Florida’s Tax Structure 1989 – Enterprise Florida: Growing the Future 1989 – Cornerstone: Foundations for Economic Leadership 1986 – The Role of Privatization in Florida’s Growth
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“We must plan better for the next 6 million Floridians than we did for the last 6 million”
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Pillar Research Consultants
Talent Supply and Education
Innovation and Economic Development
Infrastructure and Growth Leadership
Business Climate and Competitiveness
Civic and Governance Systems & Quality Life and Quality Places
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Research Approach
• Where does Florida stand today? • How do we compare to states / nations? • How do we compare to 15 years ago?
• Where Are We?
• What are key drivers of change, uncertainties, risks, and potential disruptors?
• Where Are We Going?
• Where do we want to be in 2030? • How do we measure success?
• Where Do We Want to
Go?• How Do We
Ge There?• What actions are needed to prepare for 2030?
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Strong Jobs Recovery from Recession
7
0.95
1.04
1.13
1.21
1.30
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Observation Value FloridaUS United States
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Index, 2000:1- 1.0
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But Limited Income Gains
8
$0
$12,500
$25,000
$37,500
$50,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
23927.6522699.9122113.822386.122284.5922440.1822322.1623764.1225568.1926297.625969.9325331.5824930.5824749.1124459.1924127.01
4442942918.8841481.5642308.0242649.3441982.5440948.8143654.3345482.545543.4744015.0242739.641405.8441262.5641206.9640939.8
Florida Personal Income Per Capita, $2015
Florida Net Earnings Per Capita, $2015
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis. $2015 constant dollars
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Where Will We Be in 2030?
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MichiganPoland Massachusetts VirginiaNigeriaSwedenGeorgiaNorth CarolinaNew JerseyArgentinaOhioSaudi ArabiaSwitzerlandTurkeyNetherlandsPennsylvaniaIllinoisIndonesiaFloridaMexicoSpainRussian FederationAustraliaKorea, Rep.New York CanadaTexasBrazil Italy IndiaFranceCaliforniaUnited KingdomGermanyJapanChinaUnited States
#25 in 2030?
Florida’s economy is the 16th largest in the world today
#10 in 2030?
Source: World Bank, 2015
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Globalization
Risks
Drivers of Change
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InnovationGrowth
Diversity
Urbanization
Nature of Work
Research as of 4/18/2017
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Millio
nsMi
llions
Millio
nsMi
llions
10
14
18
21
25
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Growth: How Quickly We Will Grow?
11
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; University of Florida, Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
Low Medium High
Florida can expect up to 6 million new residents by 2030
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-1,000 0 1,000 2,000
Growth: How Are We Growing?
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Source: US Census Bureau
Net Domestic Migration Net International Migration Natural Increase Components of Population Change 2010-2016
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Diversity: Aging Population
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over age 65will be
Floridians1 out of every4 1.1 million additional
residents ages 25-44
BUT… nearly
By 2030…
Source: Florida Chamber Foundation. University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
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More Diverse Population
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49% of Florida’s
population will be minority race or ethnicity in 2030
1 out of every 5 Floridians
are foreign-born today
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
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More Diverse Population
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44% of Florida households
can not afford housing, child care, health care,
transportation and basic needs
Source: ALICE United Way of Florida | University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
2 out of every 5will spend more than30% of income
Floridians
on housing in 2030
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Urbanization: Florida’s Development Patterns
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The Villages
Orlando
Naples
Cape Coral
Crestview/Fort Walton Beach/Destin
5We are home to
of the top25
metro areasfastest growing
in the U.S.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2010-2015 population change).
9out of10urban areaslive in
Floridians
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0%
50%
All Adults Millennials Gen Xers Baby Boomers War/Silent
Urbanization: Where Do Americans Want to Live?
17
Rural Areas and Small Towns
Source: Urban Land Institute, America in 2015
0%
13%
25%
38%
50%
All Adults Millennials Gen Xers Baby Boomers War/Silent
Medium and Large Cities
Generational Community Preferences
Future
Current
Future
Current
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
FundraisingListings
Revenue
Innovation: Shared Economy +
18
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Automation +
19
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Billions of C
onnected Devices
1990 1 million
2030 30 billion
Connectivity =
20
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Disruption
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Source: McKinsey Global Institute, January 2017
46% of today’s jobs could be automated
by adapting currently available technologies
Accomodations & food servicesTransport & warehousing
ManufacturingAgriculture
Retail tradeMining
Other servicesConstruction
Wholesale tradeUtilities
Finance & insuranceArts & recreation
Real estateAdministration
InformationHealth & social services
ManagementProfessional services
Education0 20 40 60 80
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Nature of Work: Knowledge, Service Jobs Growing
22
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
Thou
sand
s of
Job
s
2015201020052000199519901985
Management and Professional Occupations Production, Construction and Transport Occupations
Sales and Office Occupations Service Occupations
Source: Federal Reserve Bank
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Nature of Work: Rise of the “Gig” Economy
23
Source: Internal Revenue Service
Index, 2001=1.0
F L 2 0 3 0 @ F L C H A M B E R . C O M # F L 2 0 3 0Source: USDA, Economic Research Service (2012) 2005$. Percent change 2010-2030.
Globalization: Growing Markets
24
Change in Global Gross Domestic Product 2010 and 2030
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Is Global Trade Growth Stalling?
25
Trilli
ons
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Merchandise Exports Merchandise Imports
Source: World Bank, Trade Indicators
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Risk: Disaster Preparedness
26
Number of Declared Disasters per Year
0
40
80
120
160
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Source: Federal Emergency Management Administration. Three-year rolling average.
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More Frequent and Disruptive Risks
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What Could the Future Look Like?
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Growth Sustained long-term gains Slowing in-migration
Diversity Strength in diversity Fragmentation and gaps
Urbanization Return to urban core Exurban and inland growth
Nature of Work
Gig economy, telework Traditional skills and jobs
Innovation Faster, smarter, automated Lagging, not leading, adoption
Globalization Integrated and connected Retrenchment
Risks Prepared and resilient Reactive and disruptive
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How Can You Get Involved?
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• Attend a Town Hall meeting
• Ask for a briefing to your group
• Take the Florida 2030 survey
• Participate in a committee or a caucus
• Share your thoughts – [email protected]
• More information at: flchamber.com/florida-2030/
SECURING FLORIDA’S FUTURE [email protected] #FL2030
Florida 2030
FL 2030 @ FL Chamber.com
1,000s of Floridians 6 Pillars 2 Years 1 Plan
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