Download - Population decline in Poland – country, regions and cities. Some insights to policy responses
Population decline in Poland – country, regions and cities. Some insights to policy responses
Dr Anna Kurowska
Warsaw University
Seminar on population shrinking, March 23, 2011, Brussels
Mind map of the presentation:
Characteristics of population shrinkage at the central, regional and local level
Main direct causes of population shrinkage at each level
Deaper causes of population shrinkage at the local level (case study)
RECENT POLICY RESPONSES TO THE POPULATION SHRINKAGE AT THE CENTRAL AND REGIONAL LEVEL
Graph 1. Population in Poland 1946-2009
20000
22000
24000
26000
28000
30000
32000
34000
36000
38000
40000
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
in t
ho
usa
nd
s
growth stabilisation slight decline
-2,5
-2,0
-1,5
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
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1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
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usa
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-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1946
1948
1950
1952
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1960
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2006
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pe
r 1
00
0 p
op
ula
tio
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Graph 2. Natural increase (per 1000 population) in Poland 1946-2009
Fertility rate ab 1,38
Graph 3. Net international migration (per 1000 population) in Poland 1948-2009
post-accession (EU) emigration
Graph 4. Population prognosis for Poland 2010-2035
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
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ho
usa
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s
Total Population Population in the cities Population in the rural areas
Map 1. Polish regions in Europe – population progosis
Map 2. Subregions in Poland – population density in 2008 and population change 2000-2008
Population density (inh. per 1km)
Population change 2000-2008
increase
decline
Source: Krajowa Strategia Rozwoju Regionalnego 2010-2020
Map 3. Regions in Poland – population and prognosis on population change 2008-2030
Population in thousands
Population prognosis 2008-2030 (%)
increasedecline Source: Krajowa Strategia Rozwoju Regionalnego 2010-2020
> -5%
> -10%
Map 4. Regions of the highest population decline between 2010-2035 (prognosis)
Map 5. Natural increase in 2009 by regions in Poland
Source: Polish Demographic Yearbook 2010
Map 6. Intensity of international migrations (immigrations) in the pre- and post-accession period in Polish regions.
Pre-accesion period
Post-accesion period
Number of international migrants per 1000 inhabitants
Source: Polska 2030
Map 7. Contribution of the regions to the Polish GDP (2007)
In percent
In absolute value
Within voivodship centres
Outside voivodship centres
Source: Krajowa Strategia Rozwoju Regionalnego 2010-2020
Map 8. Average GDP per capita in subregions as a percent of country average in the years 2004-2007
Source: Krajowa Strategia Rozwoju Regionalnego 2010-2020
Average subregional GDP per capita as a % of Polish average in 2004-2007
Map 9. Subregional GDP growth compared to the country average 2004-2007
The difference between the average growth in Poland and GDP dynamics in the regions in 2004-2007
Higher than the average
Lover than average
Shrinking cities in Poland - tendencies:
Number of inhabitants (in thousands) of medium size cities
Number of inhabitants (in thousands) in large cities
http://www.gazetaprawna.pl
Between 1990-2004 (transformation period):
From 38 cities with over 100 thous. inhabitants - 24 shrinked
After accession to EU (2004-2009):
From 38 cities with over 100 thous. inhabitants - 35 shrinked
Map 10. Cities with the highest intensity of socio-economic problems
Source: Polska 2030
Problem intensity
Low
Very high
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2009
in t
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Katowice Sosnowiec Bytom
Systemic transformation:
Deindustrialization
+ Suburbanization
Graph 5. Population change in Katowice, Bytom and Sosnowiec 1950-2009
Recent policy responses at the central level:Responses to low natural increase:
Family policy:
-longer than UE average: maternity (2009) and parental leaves
-child tax credits (+joint family taxation) (2007)
-family benefits: means-tested and universal – „becikowe” (2005) (low efficiency)
-public kindergartens
-new (2011) Act on childcare for children up to 3 years
Responses to negative net international migration:
- Program „Powrót” 2007 (Homecoming):
*e-services for Polish emigrants:
www.powroty.gov.pl
*tax-credits and lowering social security contributions for returning Polish emigrants-entrepreneurs
*social campaigns
*language lessons for children of Polish emigrants
-Immigration policy
Responses internal migration and depopulation of some regions and cities:
-New National Strategy for Regional Development (2010-2020):
*polarization-diffusion model (PDM)
*restoring functionality to strategic cities within the frames of (PDM): Szczecin, Łódź, Upper Silesian Conurbation: e.g. Katowice, Sosnowiec, Bytom
* Improving accessibility to regional growth centers
Exaples of support to the regional and local authorities within the frames of NSRD 2010-2020:
Investments in infrastructure (highways, express roads, high-speed railways, air connections) and institutional relations between provincial centers
Modernization of public services in order to increase consistency, access and efficiency
Investments in education, science and technology in those provincial cities that are loosig their functionality
Promoting enterpreneurship in the East Poland an other areas loosing their current socio-economic functionality
Supporting socio-economic specialization of different regions and local areas based on their comparative advantages (supporting the development of clusters)
NSRD 2010-2020 – examples of targets (indicators):
Target/indicators Value in the base year Expected value in 2020
Number of passenger transport per 1 inhabitant in the urban areas(Poland = 100)
174,5 226,8
The connection of provincial cities with expressways and highways
6/18 18/18
Population living in 60 minutes isochrone from provincial city
57,9% 68%
Number of businesses registered in the national REGON per 1000 inhabitants aged (15-64 years) in the cities and other areas losing their current socio-economic functionality
143,9 193
Concentration of GDP in the functional areas of provincial cities:
Vivodship=100 Poland=100
50,8 51,6
Net migration to the communal permanent residence per 1000 population in cities and other areas losing the current functionality
-0,4 0
Policy responses at the regional and local level – case study of (Upper) Silesian Voivodship :
Zoning + Development Strategy of Silesia Voivodship (2004 and 2010):
1. Not much attention paid strictly to the problem of shrinking population
2. In the context of shrinking population of the central and North-West parts of Voivodship, the planned directions are:
• strengthening the functions of the nodal centers of the settlement network (II)
• protection of environmental resources, strengtheningsystem of protected areas and multifunctional development of open areas (III)
• development of supra-local infrastructure systems (IV)
• stimulate innovation in the regional systemof space management (V)
• interregional cooperation in the space planning (VI)
Examples of actions in the Upper Silesian Conurbation:
Creating 2 high technology centers
Creating technology parks on post-industrial areas i.a. in Sosnowiec
Raising the rank of cultural heritage objects (recognition as a historic monument – to enter the UNESCO World Heritage List), including historic churches, post-industrial buildings,timber building
Investments in turistic areas i.a. near Katowice (Dolina Trzech Stawów) & Częstochowa (Jura Krakowsko-Częstochowska)
Investments in local and interregional transport
CONCLUSIONS:
Since the end of the XX century Polish population started to shrink. The prognosis show that this process will continue in the next 25 years.
The major cause of the population decline is close to 0 or negative natural increase. The second problem is the negative net international immigration rate.
Poland is characterized by significant regional differences in the natural increase and net immigration rate. The Central-South voivodships and the East Poland are the regions that are especially threatened by population decline.
One of the local areas that are shrinking quickly is Upper Silesian Conurbation – highly urbanized area that experienced intensive deindustrialization during the transformation period.
As the depopulation is regionally highly correlated with slower economic growth and social problems, the Polish policy at the central, regional and local level is concentrated on solving socio-economic problems and not directly on depopulation processes. The regional policy follows the ideal of diffusion-polarization model.
The important policy actions are: enforcing regional growth centers (provincial cities), investing in local and interregional transport, supporting entrepreneurship and investing in technology/science and education/cultural centers.