Larry M Frolich
Larry M Frolich
Population and Energy in the 21st Century: A Biological Perspective
Larry M Frolich, Ph.D.Miami Dade CollegeWolfson Campus, Natural SciencesFulbright Scholar, Ecuador, 2011www.LarryFrolich.com
Larry M Frolich
Lewis Thomas
1978
Larry M Frolich
What does the century before us hold?
World population will reach its peak
The real challenge on the other side: The dependency ratio or the lack of human capital.
Fuente: UNEP
The Death of Birth: Our Dismal Fertility Rates
Larry M Frolich
What does the century before us hold?
Petroleum production will reach its peak
The real challenge on the other side: New sources of energy or the lack of stored energy capital.
Source: Exit Mundi
Larry M Frolich
The environmental movement, based on an ecological perspective:
Does not provide us with a logical solution to the lack of human capital and the lack of stored energy capital.
They ask that we lower our use of energy…and at the same time,lower fertility rate.
But these two goals cannot go together…
Larry M Frolich
Energy and Birth Rates: A biological principle
(Melanie Moses & James Brown, 2000)
Nat
ality
/Birt
h R
ate
(BR
)
Primates
Size of individual/Energy Use
monkey
humanmetabolic
human extra-metabolic
60 kg 130 WBR = 7
30,000 kg 10,000 WBR < 2
10 kg 20 WBR = 12
Mammals
mouse
elephant
0.05 kg 0.2 WBR = 100
5000 kg 1200 WBR = 4
Larry M Frolich
Actual data from Moses & Brown (2000)
Energy and Birth Rates: A biological principle
Larry M Frolich
Birth rates go downonly when energy use goes up
Energy and Birth Rates: A biological principle
Programs and policies that lower birth rates will lead to higher energy use
(example: China)
Programs and policies that increase energyuse will lead to lower birth rates.(example: Ecuador urbano)
There is no escape from this fundamental biological principle
Symbol for energy
babies being born
Larry M Frolich
The Population Bomb
So, population, in itself, is not the root of the problem
The world ecological crisis is caused by high fertility rates in the “third world” or developing countries.
But we know that lowering birth rates leads to higher energy use, which represents a general increase in the use of resources.
If we want to use population control as a way to reduce the use of energy and resources, we
should start in the “developed world” suburbs with programs aimed at reducing the number of
“30,000 kg apes.”(for example: Palo Alto, California where Paul Ehrlich lives)
1968
Larry M Frolich
Larry M Frolich
Reverse Transfer of
Technology and
Values
Larry M Frolich
The flattening of the world, and overall human/societal development, is bringing about a reduction in birth rates world-wide. All predictions indicate that we will hit a human population peak around mid-century.
Population and Energy in the 21st Century
However, while birth rates decline, enegy use will increase. At the same
time, we will hit a peak in petroleum production during the next few
decades.
Hans Rosling on global population changes, TED
Larry M Frolich
Energy: “Big History”
Larry M Frolich
Energy: “Big History”
The composition of the atmosphere depends on a balance between the process of photosynthesis and the
process of metabolic respiration carried out by living beings.
Meganeura:• 75 cm wing-span Dragonfly• From Carboniferous Period, 300 MYA• How could it fly?
Larry M Frolich
Historia del Planeta Tierra
Energy: “Big History”
300 MYA: Meganeura; Great Coal Forests, 30% O2
100 MYA: Ability to decompoase lignin; 21% O2
4.5-4.0 BYA: Earth Forms; First Life—prokaryotic cells
2.0 BYA: Origin of Photosynthesis by Cyanobacteria--O2
into atmosphere1760: Joseph Priestley discovers O2, ,CO2
1800-present: Industrial Revolution: Humans liberate fossilized carbon deposits (“fossil fuel”) CO2
rises
Larry M Frolich
Source: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
The “Swoosh” of CO2 and of temperature(“hockey stick curves”)
Larry M Frolich
World-wide energy sources
• Petroleum, coal and natural gas dominate, liberating carbon sequestered since the Carbiniferous Period.
• Sources that don’t liberate carbon provide 20% of the total
(CMO = Cubic Mile of Oil)
1 CMO ≈ 1.6 × 1020 joules
= 160 exajoules
≈ 4.454 × 1013 kilowatt-hours
= 44.54 petawatt-hours
Larry M Frolich
Every hour and a half, the surface of the planet absorbs enough solar energy to provide the 3 CMO’s that the total human population uses in one year
The challenge before us is to
capture, concentrate and store this energy
Larry M Frolich
Potential of Renewable Energy Sources
Larry M Frolich
National Geo energy fractions graph
Larry M Frolich
The “Swoosh” of solar and wind energy production
Since 2008, more than half of all new capacity
for energy production has been in renewable (non-carbon-liberating)
sources.
Larry M Frolich
Fuente: Sightline Daily using McKinsey and Company data
Larry M Frolich
Reverse transfer of
technology and values
Larry M Frolich
We are few with access to this power
1% of the world’s population goes to college
Larry M Frolich
Larry M Frolich
Thank You’s
Mediaval miniature by Berthold Furtmeyer: Baum des Todes und des Lebens, 1481 (depicting both trees in one). In: Roger Cook: The Tree of Life. Image for the Cosmos. New York 1974. 44
and Propaganda
www.jsedimensions.org
www.LarryFrolich.com
Class in Management of Information Resources,PUCE-SI, Campus Virtual, Septiembre 2011