Population Ageing & Longer Lives –
Global triumph, global challenge
Toby PorterChief Executive, HelpAge International
HelpAge International
Our vision is a world in which older people fulfill their potential to lead
dignified, active, healthy and secure lives.
-
Global ageing is a triumph of human development
Twentieth Century advances...
Health and sanitation
Education
Poverty reduction
Development progress...
more people are surviving childhood
more women are surviving childbirth
fewer children are being born...
...and people are living longer
Scale and rate of global population ageing
199019952000200520102013202020302040
Proportion of population aged 60+ in 2012 and 2050
Rapid ageingtime taken to increase the proportion
of older people from 7% to 20%
Germany United Kingdom
Russia Brazil Mexico Kenya South Africa0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
40
80
40
26 2630
4140
47
31
13 11
22 21
7-14% 14-20%
OLD-AGESUPPORTRATIO
Source: Aging Profile 2013 – United NationCited on 28 June, 2014
2013
15-64 yrs
65+yrs
9.1
2030
5.0
2050
2.8
OLD-AGESUPPORTRATIO
Source: Aging Profile 2013 – United NationCited on 28 June, 2014
2030
4.2
2013
15-64
65+
8.2
2050
2.6
OLD-AGESUPPORTRATIO
Source: Aging Profile 2013 – United NationCited on 28 June, 2014
2030
8.7
2050
6.511.7
2013
15-64
65+
The 21st century is the century of ageing
“The new millennium closes the first chapter in human history: when we were young” (Paul Wallace: “Agequake”)
Life expectancy is extending worldwide, fertility rates are falling, and demographic ageing is accelerating -
“The ageing of humanity across the world is a defining stage in history. It will change everything from business and finance to society and culture”
4 things to do
• Act early
• Act strategically
• Act positively
• Act together
4 things to do
• Act early
• Act strategically
• Act positively
• Act together
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Child Dependency Ratio Aged Dependency Ratio Total Dependency Ratio
Low TDR2000-2020
36.9
Source: United Nation DatabaseCited on 1st July, 2014
Importance of Acting Early
1980 1990 2000 2010 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 20800
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
86
76
61
43 41.4 41 42 43 44 4650
5460
67
74 76 7881 83
Child Dependency Ratio Aged Dependency Ratio Total Dependency Ratio
Source: United Nations data baseCited on 26 June, 2014
Aggregate Dependency Ratio – Vietnam
1980 – 2080 (Medium Variant)
4 things to do
• Act early
• Act strategically
• Act positively
• Act together
How consumption in Old-Ageis covered?
Saving through the working life period that provide income
- Pension (Contributory) – Smoothing consumption to save for regular repayment in old age
- Assets – Which can provide income, such physical property, stocks, saving
Mainly family support, frequently within a household (but also remittances or financial support from family members)
Indirect (i.e. access to Health services, LTC, transport subsidies)Direct: Social Cash transfer (Social Pensions)
ASSETPRIVATE
TRANSFERPUBLIC
TRANSFER
Support system for OP indeveloped countries
AUT GER HUN SLO SPA SWE USA
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Labor income Asset-based Re-allocation Private transfer Public transfer
Source: www.ntaccounts.org Cited on 26 June, 2014
Support system for OP in Asian countries
JPN PRC IND INO ROK PHI TWA THA
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Labor income Asset-based Re-allocation Private transfer Public transfer
Source: www.ntaccounts.org Cited on 26 June, 2014
United Kingdom
Iceland Japan South Korea
Brazil Chile Mexico Thailand0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
10.11
35.78
19.86
30.96
68.5
19.8
27.3223.9
Labor Force Participation Rate of OP aged 65+
Perc
enta
ge
Source: International Labor Organisation database.Cited on 1st July, 2014
The labor force participation rate of Older People aged 65 and above in other countries
Moving the boundaries of work
012345678910
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90+
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Consumption Labor IncomeLabor Income within legal retirement age
Labor Income as working time prolonged
Continuum of Care
VolunteerHome Care
PaidHome Care
Day Care
Home forThe Aged
Short stay
Nursing Home
Difficulties of ADL & IADLOf OP
Institutional careCommunity-based care
Source: Help Age Korea
Cost
The importance of Self-care
1
2
With Self-CareWithout Self-Care
Per capita labor income and consumption profile
Japan, 2004
USA, 2003
Source: www.ntaccounts.org Cited on 26 June, 2014
4 things to do
• Act early
• Act strategically
• Act positively
• Act together
A triumph seen as a crisis
Many low- and middle-income countries are said to be “growing old before they grow rich”
Media headlines on aging...
“Aging population may explode global economy by 2050”
“Silver Tsunami”
“World faces ageing population time bomb says UN”
Negative attitudes toward ageing create:
a lack of preparedness (governments and societies)
fear of old age & a wish to avoid it
a reaction against older people (generational competition)
fear-mongering today reinforces a fatalist approach to the future
Old age is seen as a disease
older people frequently report this attitude among health staff
Older people are seen as a problem
economic pressures are challenging traditional caregiving
Older people are seen as a threat
destabilising economies and societies
4 things to do
• Act early
• Act strategically
• Act positively
• Act together
ACTING TOGETHER At Family level
Problem
Compartmentalisation of different age groups
Excluding older people, their needs, vulnerabilities, contributions and capabilities runs counter to the reality of the fabric and economy of households across the world
ACTING TOGETHER: at Community level
Problem
Increasing isolation, family separation due to migration, work requirements
Lack of community-based facilities – health and community centres
Response
Village-based older people's associations - foster social bonds and help older people to support each other
training on older people's health
“age-friendly” health consultations
training on home-based care
home care volunteers for frail older people
ACTING TOGETHER: At National Level
Problem:
Political voice and power of older people is not sufficiently organised or heard
ACTING TOGETHER: At times of Crisis
Problem
Older people are especially vulnerable to
natural disasters
conflict
long-term crisis – drought, food shortages
ACTING TOGETHER: Around the World
As a global community of older people, and advocates for their rights
• Exchanging information, ideas and best practice• Coming together as a moral community at times of crisis• Combatting ageism, exclusion and discrimination• Joining forces for political and advocacy priorities
Ageing in the “post-2015” agenda
a forward-looking global agenda on health, poverty, rights, the environment -
must recognize demographic change and global ageing
needs a life-course based, inclusive approach
“… As the international community embarks on...the post-2015 development agenda, it is clear that the issue of population ageing should be fully addressed as part of this process”.
Ban Ki-moon, UN Secretary-General
A UN Convention on the rights of older people
Growing concern over challenges to older people’s rights…
…and abuses – physical, social, financial
UN review of the Madrid International Plan of Action on Ageing -
major obstacles to older people’s “participation, inclusion & social integration”, including discrimination and abuse
Global AgeWatch Index
• First-ever measure of quality of life and well-being of older people around the world• Uses the latest data available from World Bank,
WHO, ILO, and Gallup World View• Covers 91 countries representing 89% of the
world’s older people
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andom
wir
e/F
lickr
Four domains and thirteen indicators
Global AgeWatch Index - overall rankings
A new view of old age
Focus on the individual and not the age – her/his capabilities and assets, not deficits
Old age is not the problem... ...Societies need to adjust– social structures, physical environments, attitudes
Thank you