Download - Population
Population
Sources:
The World Food Problem
Leathers and Foster, 2004
World Hunger 12 MythsLappe Collins and Rossett, 1998
Hesketh et al.,New England J. Med 353: 1171-1176
Wikipedia
http://www.lastfirst.net/images/product/R004548.jpg
Thomas Malthus
• 1798: Essay on the Principle of Population as it Affects the Future Improvement of Society
– Population growth tends to outstrip the means of subsistence
– Food increases arithmetically while population increases geometrically
– The poor can be kept alive by charity, but since they would then propagate, this is cruelty in disguise.
Paul Ehrlich
• 1968: The Population Bomb
• “The battle to feed all of humanity is over.
• In the 1970s the world will undergo famines—
• Hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death”
World Population
World Population
http://www.theglobaleducationproject.org/earth/images/final-images/g-pop-growth-chart-map-sm.gif
Human Population Density
http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.theglobaleducationproject.org/earth/images/final-images/life-expectancy-map.gif&imgrefurl=http://www.theglobaleducationproject.org/earth/human-conditions.php%3Fformat%3Dprint&h=279&w=600&sz=15&hl=en&start=3&tbnid=s2UwthIUrW89qM:&tbnh=63&tbnw=135&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dlife%2Bexpectancy%2Bmap%26gbv%3D2%26hl%3Den
Demographic Transition
• First, high birth rates and high death rates
• Then, improved living standards, health cause death rates to drop
• Finally, low birth rates match low death rates
Demographic Transition
• 1750-1950: Occurred in developed countries
• 1950: Began to see death rates drop in developing countries
• 2050: Projected completion of transition
Demographic Transition
• Example: U.S. History– When agrarian
society, people had many kids
• Source of security, labor
Demographic Transition
• Example: U.S. History– When became
industrial, fewer kids/family
• Lowered infant mortality
• No need to rely on children’s labor
• More opportunities for women
• Happened without birth control
Global Fertility
• 1950’s: 5 children/woman
• 1970’s: 4 children/woman
• 1990’s: 2.8 children/woman
• Replacement: 2.1 children/woman
Global Population
• Population growth rate is slowing down and will eventually stop
• Dip in 1960 due to 30 million deaths in China– Great Leap Forward
Famine
World Population Projection• Estimated to peak at 11 billion in 2200
World Population Growth
AIDS
• 40 million people infected with HIV– Many will die of AIDS
• Will not greatly impact global population growth
• Will Impact some countries • Losses by 2020:
– Uganda 45% – Rwanda 35%– Malawi 30%
Malawi AIDS orphans
Global HIV
Food Production per Capita
• Food Production per capita is rising worldwide– But falling in Africa
• Food production is keeping up with population– Otherwise food prices
would have risen– Food prices have dropped
Food Production in Sub-Saharan Africa
• Food Production in Sub Saharan Africa not keeping up with population
Per Capita Production of Calories, Fat, Protein
Progressivist View• Things are good and getting
better: – Worldwide standard of living
– Education
– Health
– Trade
• People are an asset.
• Population causes shortages which raise prices, – stimulating entrepreneurs to
satisfy the shortages.
• We end up better off as a result.Julian Simon
Progressivist View
• Two important indicators of progress and improvement in life are – Decreased Infant
Mortality
– Increased Life Expectancy
Life Expectancy
http://www.theglobaleducationproject.org/earth/images/final-images/life-expectancy-map.gif
Revisionist View
• Adoption and spread of agriculture have trapped humanity in a spiral of – Population growth– Ecological destruction– Social tyranny.
• The problem stems from the anti-ecological culture (religion) of agricultural societies
– humans are above and not part of nature (global ecosystem)
– and therefore can destroy it at will.
Civilization is based on Agriculture
Daniel Quinn
• 1992: Ishmael – Although population is 5.5 billion, we
produce enough food for 6.0 billion even though millions are starving
– Because we produce enough food for 6 billion, in 3 or 4 years there will be 6 billion people.
– Then, even though millions are starving, we will produce enough for 6.5 billion.
– Thus in another 3-4 years there will be 6.5 billion
– To halt this process, must face the fact that increasing food production doesn’t feed the hungry, it only fuels the population explosion.
Social Equity View
• Problems of – poverty
– overpopulation
– ecological destruction
• Are due to – inequity of wealth
– unfairness of economic and social systems
Frances Moore Lappe, Food First
http://www.mediathatmattersfest.org/mtm05/img/frances_moore_lappe.jpg
If the world were 100 people (2005)
• 51 male– 49 female
• 60 Asians, – 14 Africans, – 12 Europeans, – 8 Latin Americans,– 5 from USA and Canada – 1 from the South Pacific
• 82 nonwhite– 18 white
• 67 non-Christian– 33 be Christian
(Source: Family Care Foundation)
If the world were 100 people(2005)
• 80 live in substandard housing
• 67 unable to read • 50 malnourished
– 1 dying of starvation
• 33 without access to safe water supply
• 39 lack access to improved sanitation
• 24 have no electricity– Most of the 76 with electricity
use it only for light at night
(Source: Family Care Foundation)
If the world were 100 people(2005)
(Source: Family Care Foundation)
• 7 have access to the internet
• 1 has a college education
• 1 has HIV
• 2 near birth– 1 near death
• 5 control 32% of the entire world’s wealth – All 5 U.S. citizens
• 33 attempt to live on 3% of global income
Both hunger and high fertility occur when:
• Poverty is extreme and widespread
• Society denies security and opportunity to people
• Infant mortality is high• Most people can’t get land,
jobs, education, health care, old age security
• Few opportunities for women outside of home
Bangladesh mother
Children
• Labor force
• Chance for a job in city
• Security– major investment
– rational choice
Women’s Education
• Powerful predictor of lower fertility
• Reflects opportunity in society
Male Poverty
• Low self-esteem
• Dominate women and children
• Thus more children
Examples
• Sri Lanka: – lower price rice
• led to population decline
• Cuba: – low prices for food and health care
• reduced population rate from 4.7 to 1.6
• Kerala, India: – lower price rice, kerosene
• 1/3 birth rate of average in India• Literacy for women is 2.5 times
average in India
Kerala, India
Family Planning• Birth Control is responsible for only 15-
20% total fertility decline– Thus population growth cannot be brought
down simply by family planning or contraception
– but it can speed the decline
• Contraceptive use in Developing World has increased – 9% in 1960– 60% in late 1990s
• Demographic Transition requires improved– Health– Social Security– Education
IUD: Intra Uterine Device
Sterilization
• Encouraged by Western donors for developing countries– Quotas are set
– Incentives are used• Cash, roads, transportation,
latrines
• For hungry, choices are limited
• 1/3 of married women in India and China are sterilized
Indian woman
Puerto Rico: La Operacion
• U. S. seized in 1898• Sugar companies set up vast
plantations• Small farmers evicted• By 1925, 2% of population
owned 80% of land, 70% of population landless’
• Unemployment termed “overpopulation” by U.S.
• By 1940’s light manufacturing moved in attracted to cheap labor, low taxes
Puerto Rico: La Operacion
• Young women were key to labor force
• Problem was pregnancy
• Result: massive sterilization program
• Women coerced into sterilization without being told it was irreversible
• By 1968, 1/3 of women childbearing age were sterilized.
• Emigration and sterilization resulted in population drop with no increase in standard of living.
Bangladesh
• Intensive Family Planning in Matlab region
• Contraceptive use doubled
• Resulted in reduced birth rate
• Cost was very high: $120/birth averted– This is 120% of per capita
gross domestic product
– Not replicable on a national scale
China
• 1950s, 60s Under Mao– children encouraged
– Fertility rate: 5.9 children/woman
• 1970-1979 new policy to cope with overpopulation– “one is good, 2 is ok, 3 is too many”
– “late, long, few”• Have fewer children later
• greater spacing between
• Fertility dropped steeply to 2.9
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/asia_pac/02/china_party_congress/china_ruling_party/key_people_events/html/default.stm
Fertility decline in China
China One Child Policy• 1979 “one child” policy enacted
– For urban areas
• Material benefits – if have 1 child
• Social & official pressure– If have more than 1 child
• 71% Chinese are rural– Multiple children are common
• Fertility rate has declined – But also declined in other Asian
countries without coersion
• Human rights violation?
Birth Control Methods in China
Skewed sex ratio
• Sex ratio at birth (2000)– 117:100 male:female
• Maternal Hepatitus B may account for much of the skewing
• Boys preferred– Men care for parents in old age– Women join husband’s family
• Care for husband’s parents
• Selective abortion of girls– Use ultrasound to determine sex– If first child is a girl, want second to be a
boy– Illegal but suspected
• Female infanticide suspected– before ultrasound