Download - Plantilla Dist. Normal
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PROB
SABEMOS LO SIGUIENTE:
p =
q =
Tr =
AO Q m Qmax
1983 47.7 1 139.2
1982 66.8 2 131.1
1981 102.1 3 127.4
1980 53.2 4 127.1
1979 70.2 5 122.7
1977 77.3 6 117.7
1978 75.9 7 115.9
1976 99.6 8 111.7
1975 110.6 9 110.7
1973 139.2 10 110.6
1974 122.7 11 107.3
1972 105.6 12 106.7
1971 66.7 13 105.6
1970 74.5 14 105.61969 57.6 15 103.7
1968 74.4 16 102.1
1967 61.9 17 102.1
1966 33.7 18 101.4
1965 56.7 19 99.6
1964 66.1 20 98.7
1963 115.9 21 93.9
1962 93.9 22 91.9
1961 88.1 23 88.1
1960 82.6 24 83.0
1959 77.4 25 82.6
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1958 102.1 26 82.3
1957 59.6 27 77.7
1956 58.9 28 77.4
1955 131.1 29 77.4
1954 103.7 30 77.3
1953 91.9 31 75.9
1952 83.0 32 74.5
1951 106.7 33 74.4
1984 110.7 34 70.8
1985 111.7 35 70.2
1986 101.4 36 67.4
1987 70.8 37 66.8
1988 77.4 38 66.7
1989 127.1 39 66.1
1990 41.5 40 62.5
1991 62.5 41 61.91992 57.3 42 59.6
1993 67.4 43 58.9
1994 117.7 44 57.6
1995 77.7 45 57.3
1996 98.7 46 56.7
1997 107.3 47 53.2
1998 82.3 48 47.7
1999 127.4 49 41.5
2000 105.6
50 33.7
n 50
X 86 50
S 25!36
S2 643!31
111!40 85
60!67 15
A" E#UA#ION $E %EG%ESION:
B = S
A
B
y = 86.034
$ES#A%GAS ME$IAS MENSUALES:
X & S
X ' S
A = X
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LUEGO:
95!000 (
Z =
USAN$O LA #AM)ANA $E GAUSS:
) (
P =
B"
Q1 =
Q =
*)A%A Q ( 120!00
+ ( 1!339
) ( '0!4097
) , Q - 229!25 . Q / 42!71" :) (
) ( 0!8320P = 83.0
AOS $E SEQUIA:
AOS SEQ! ( 25
AOS SEQ! ( 25
E#UA#ION $E %EG%ESION: T (
p =
(
USAN$O LA #AM)ANA $
+ (
A$EMAS:
Q1 ( X & S
Q2 ( X ' S
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Q =
$ES#A%GAS ME$IAS MENSUALES:
(
$"
USAN$O LA #AM)ANA $
+ (
A$EMAS:
Q (
Q
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ABILIDAD EMPIRICA
! " 100%
# $ 1
100% - p%
1 " 100%
p
O#U%%EN#IA NO O#U%%EN#IA
)!E! ," ," T,A" + ,Q"
1!961 98!039 0!5099 2!095 2!144
3!922 96!078 0!255 1!776 2!118
5!882 94!118 0!17 1!631 2!105
7!843 92!157 0!1275 1!618 2!104
9!804 90!196 0!102 1!446 2!089
11!765 88!235 0!085 1!250 2!071
13!725 86!275 0!0729 1!179 2!064
15!686 84!314 0!0638 1!013 2!048
17!647 82!353 0!0567 0!973 2!044
19!608 80!392 0!051 0!968 2!044
21!569 78!431 0!0464 0!839 2!031
23!529 76!471 0!0425 0!813 2!028
25!49 74!51 0!0392 0!771 2!024
27!451 72!549 0!0364 0!769 2!02329!412 70!588 0!034 0!697 2!016
31!373 68!627 0!0319 0!635 2!009
33!333 66!667 0!03 0!632 2!009
35!294 64!706 0!0283 0!604 2!006
37!255 62!745 0!0268 0!536 1!998
39!216 60!784 0!0255 0!498 1!994
41!176 58!824 0!0243 0!311 1!973
43!137 56!863 0!0232 0!231 1!963
45!098 54!902 0!0222 0!081 1!945
47!059 52!941 0!0212 '0!120 1!919
49 02 50 98 0 0204 '0 136 1 917
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50!98 49!02 0!0196 '0!148 1!915
52!941 47!059 0!0189 '0!329 1!890
54!902 45!098 0!0182 '0!339 1!889
56!863 43!137 0!0176 '0!341 1!889
58!824 41!176 0!017 '0!344 1!888
60!784 39!216 0!0165 '0!400 1!880
62!745 37!255 0!0159 '0!456 1!872
64!706 35!294 0!0155 '0!459 1!872
66!667 33!333 0!015 '0!599 1!850
68!627 31!373 0!0146 '0!624 1!846
70!588 29!412 0!0142 '0!735 1!829
72!549 27!451 0!0138 '0!758 1!825
74!51 25!49 0!0134 '0!763 1!824
76!471 23!529 0!0131 '0!786 1!820
78!431 21!569 0!0128 '0!927 1!796
80!392 19!608 0!0124 '0!950 1!79282!353 17!647 0!0121 '1!043 1!775
84!314 15!686 0!0119 '1!069 1!770
86!275 13!725 0!0116 '1!121 1!760
88!235 11!765 0!0113 '1!134 1!758
90!196 9!804 0!0111 '1!155 1!754
92!157 7!843 0!0109 '1!293 1!726
94!118 5!882 0!0106 '1!512 1!678
96!078 3!922 0!0104 '1!757 1!618
98!039 1!961 0!0102 '2!064 1!527n 50
X 1!9146
S 0!1372
Q = A $ B
86!034
25!364
$ &.364
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86!034 & 25!364 * +
0.3&3&
0!6381
63.81
10.00
&0.00
*)A%A Q ( 50!00
+ ( '1!421
) ( 0!4223
0!4097 ' 0!4223
5 a
0.0 %
0!30
GAUSS:
0!842
Q = A $ B
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86!034 & 25!364 * 0!842
Q = 10(.3' !3)*
( 1 ' ,1 ' ".n( 1 ' ,1 ' 0!04".20
0!558
+ = &&.8 %
( 1 ' ,1 ' ".n0!1 ( 1 ' ,1 ' ".20
( 0!00525 ( 0!5 '0!00525
( 0!4947
GAUSS:
2!56
Q = A $ B
86!0338 & 25!364 * 2!56
( 150!965
Q = 1&0.'6&
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+,"
1!668
1!479
1!389
1!381
1!270
1!139
1!090
0!973
0!944
0!941
0!846
0!826
0!794
0!7930!737
0!689
0!687
0!665
0!610
0!580
0!424
0!355
0!221
0!033
0 017
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0!005
'0!177
'0!187
'0!189
'0!192
'0!251
'0!311
'0!314
'0!469
'0!497
'0!627
'0!655
'0!660
'0!687
'0!865
'0!894'1!017
'1!052
'1!123
'1!142
'1!171
'1!373
'1!721
'2!164
'2!822
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4 0.00013383
3.9 0.00019866
3.8 0.00029195
3.7 0.00042478
3.6 0.0006119
3.5 0.00087268
3.4 0.00123222
3.3 0.00172257
3.2 0.00238409
3.1 0.00326682
3 0.00443185
2.9 0.00595253
2.8 0.00791545
2.7 0.01042093
-4
-3.9
-3.8
-3.7
-3.6
-3.5
-3.4
-3.3
-3.2
-3.1
-3
-2.9
-2.8
-2.7
-2.6
-2.5
-2.
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2.6 0.01358297
2.5 0.0175283
2.4 0.02239453
2.3 0.02832704
2.2 0.03547459
2.1 0.0439836
2 0.053990971.9 0.06561581
1.8 0.07895016
1.7 0.09404908
1.6 0.11092083
1.5 0.1295176
1.4 0.14972747
1.3 0.17136859
1.2 0.19418605
1.1 0.21785218
1 0.24197072
0.9 0.26608525
0.8 0.28969155
0.7 0.31225393
0.6 0.3332246
0.5 0.35206533
0.4 0.36827014
0.3 0.38138782
0.2 0.39104269
0.1 0.39695255
0 0.39894228
-0.1 0.39695255
-0.2 0.39104269
-0.3 0.38138782
-0.4 0.36827014
-0.5 0.35206533
-0.6 0.3332246
-0.7 0.31225393
-0.8 0.28969155
-0.9 0.26608525
-1 0.24197072
-1.1 0.21785218
-1.2 0.19418605
-1.3 0.17136859
-1.4 0.14972747
-1.5 0.1295176
-1.6 0.11092083
-1.7 0.09404908
-1.8 0.07895016
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-1.9 0.06561581
-2 0.05399097
-2.1 0.0439836
-2.2 0.03547459
-2.3 0.02832704
-2.4 0.02239453
-2.5 0.0175283-2.6 0.01358297
-2.7 0.01042093
-2.8 0.00791545
-2.9 0.00595253
-3 0.00443185
-3.1 0.00326682
-3.2 0.00238409
-3.3 0.00172257
-3.4 0.00123222
-3.5 0.00087268
-3.6 0.0006119
-3.7 0.00042478
-3.8 0.00029195
-3.9 0.00019866
-4 0.00013383
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#AM)ANA $E GAUSS
2.3
-2.2
-2.1
-2
-1.9
-1.8
-1.7
-1.6
-1.5
-1.4
-1.3
-1.2
-1.1
-1
-0.9
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
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