![Page 1: Parameterization of mires in a numerical weather prediction model Alla Yurova Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d635503460f94a45f6b/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Parameterization of mires in a numerical weather prediction model
Alla Yurova
Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia
![Page 2: Parameterization of mires in a numerical weather prediction model Alla Yurova Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d635503460f94a45f6b/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Mire (peatland): definition
•Drainage of water is blocked. Precipitation is retained. Water table is close to the surface (max 70 cm)
•Specific vegetation-Sphagnum moss, sedges
•Decomposition of organic matter is slowed-peat is formed
![Page 3: Parameterization of mires in a numerical weather prediction model Alla Yurova Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d635503460f94a45f6b/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
The spatial distribution of mires in Russia from the GIS "Peatlands of Russia" (Vompersky et al., 2005).
Mires have a specific:
•Heat balance•Moisture exchange
![Page 4: Parameterization of mires in a numerical weather prediction model Alla Yurova Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d635503460f94a45f6b/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Global semi-Lagrangian NWP model SL-AV (Tolstykh, 2001)
•Operational NWP in Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia
•Resolution 0.72о lat и 0.9о lon, 50 vertical levels
•Dynamical core- semi-Lagrangian, semi-implicit, vorticity and divergence as prognostic variables, unstaggered horizontal grid
•Physical parameterizations- ALADIN/ALARO, including ISBA LSS
•In Siberia forecasts in summer are biased towards high air temperature and low relative humidity
![Page 5: Parameterization of mires in a numerical weather prediction model Alla Yurova Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d635503460f94a45f6b/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Modifications done to the SL-AV model to simulate mire heat andwater balance
•Multilayer soil heat transfer model with heat capacity and thermal conductivity from Wania et al. (2009)
•Water balance with MMWH
•Two schemes to simulate evapotranspiration(1-Lafleur et al., 2005;2-Weiss et al., 2006)
•Prescribed roughness length and albedo
,,1
,)()()(, 33
2210
Lwt
LwtLwtLwtLwt
zzif
zzifzzszzszzssmmPETET
25,617.0
6525,53.0
65,427.0
wt
wt
wt
zifPETET
zifPETET
zifPETET1
2
ET-evapotranspirationРЕТ-potential ET
![Page 6: Parameterization of mires in a numerical weather prediction model Alla Yurova Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d635503460f94a45f6b/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
WT_max
WT_current
Saturated zone
z,cm
Capillary zone
0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9
The Mixed Mire Water and Heat model MMWH (Granberg et al., 1999)
W=P-E-q,q=lq·i·K_h(zcat-zwt),
W-water content, P-precipitation, E-evapotranspiration, q-runoff, i-slope of the water table,·K_h-transmissivity coefficient, lq-lumped parameter
zcat
zwt
![Page 7: Parameterization of mires in a numerical weather prediction model Alla Yurova Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d635503460f94a45f6b/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Sensible heat Latent heat
-50
0
50
100
150
200
0 12 24
time UTC, h
Sen
sib
le h
eat
flu
x, W
m-2
meas
mire
stand
-50
0
50
100
150
200
0 12 24
time UTC, h
Lat
ent
hea
t fl
ux,
W m
-2
meas
mire
stand
Components of the heat balance from the eddy-flux measurements, standard model simulation (stand), and simulation with a new model (mire). Degero Srormyr mire, Sweden
![Page 8: Parameterization of mires in a numerical weather prediction model Alla Yurova Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d635503460f94a45f6b/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Components of the radiation and heat balance from the standard model simulation (stand), and simulation with a new model (mire).July-August 2008, “mire” grid cells only, Western Siberia
LW balance
Sensible heat
Latent heat
Soil heat flux
![Page 9: Parameterization of mires in a numerical weather prediction model Alla Yurova Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d635503460f94a45f6b/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Mean bias error (MBE) for forecasted temperature C, for the standard model (ref), for the saturated mire surface (satur) model, for the model with the Weiss et al. (2006) function for evapotranspiration (finevap), and for the model incorporating the Lafleur et al. (2005) function for evapotranspiration (canevap).July-August 2008, “mire” stations only, Western Siberia
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
12 24 36 48 60 72
time UTC, h
MB
E, o C
ref
finevap
lafl
satur
![Page 10: Parameterization of mires in a numerical weather prediction model Alla Yurova Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d635503460f94a45f6b/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
.
00.5
11.5
22.5
3
3.54
4.55
12 24 36 48 60 72
time UTC, h
MA
E, о
С
ref
finevap
canevap
satur
Mean absolute error (MAE) for forecasted temperature C, for the standard model (ref), for the saturated mire surface (satur) model, for the model with the Weiss et al. (2006) function for evapotranspiration (finevap), and for the model incorporating the Lafleur et al. (2005) function for evapotranspiration (canevap).July-August 2008, “mire” stations only, Western Siberia
![Page 11: Parameterization of mires in a numerical weather prediction model Alla Yurova Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d635503460f94a45f6b/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Mean bias error (MBE) for forecasted relative humidity, for the standard model (ref), for the saturated mire surface (satur) model, for the model with the Weiss et al. (2006) function for evapotranspiration (finevap), and for the model incorporating the Lafleur et al. (2005) function for evapotranspiration (canevap).July-August 2008, “mire” stations only, Western Siberia
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
12 24 36 48 60 72
time UTC, h
MB
E
ref
f inevap
lafl
satur
![Page 12: Parameterization of mires in a numerical weather prediction model Alla Yurova Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d635503460f94a45f6b/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
12 24 36 48 60 72
time UTC, h
RM
SE
ref
finevap
canevap
satur
RMSE for forecasted relative humidity, for the standard model (reef), for the saturated mire surface (satur) model, for the model with the Weiss et al. (2006) function for evapotranspiration (finevap), and for the model incorporating the Lafleur et al. (2005) function for evapotranspiration (canevap).July-August 2008, “mire” stations only, Western Siberia
![Page 13: Parameterization of mires in a numerical weather prediction model Alla Yurova Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d635503460f94a45f6b/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Conclusions:
It is important to incorporate mires when forcasting weather in Siberia
Heat balance partitioning has changed
The mire parameterization has helped to reduce a large warm temperature bias in Western Siberia for the forecast for lead times of 12, 36 and 60h, but did not eliminate forecast bias for lead times of 24, 48 and 72h.
![Page 14: Parameterization of mires in a numerical weather prediction model Alla Yurova Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d635503460f94a45f6b/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Future plans:
•Testing the model for winter conditions (freezing and thawing)
•Investigating the effect of mire drainage on local and regional weather conditions
![Page 15: Parameterization of mires in a numerical weather prediction model Alla Yurova Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d635503460f94a45f6b/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Thanks for your attention!This work was financed from the RFBR grants07-05-00893-а and 06-05-64331-а