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10 Influenza Pandemic Models
By Claude Penland, Associate of the
Casualty Actuarial Society
www.CatRisky.com
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What are we doing?
• We will discuss some different types of influenza pandemic models.
• This is not intended to be a comprehensive look at the state of pandemic modeling, and instead is merely a discussion of some interesting flu pandemic models.
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What is a Pandemic?
• Pandemics are infectious disease epidemics that spread across a wide region.
• Recent pandemics include the flu pandemic of 2009 and the HIV pandemic.
• Historical pandemics have also included outbreaks of tuberculosis and smallpox.
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1. Society of Actuaries
• The Society of Actuaries’ model evaluates the potential impact on the United States life insurance industry.
• Actuarial analysis looks at possible economic effects as well as potential excess insured mortality.
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2. Pandemic Influenza Policy Model
• Military Medicine looks at a policy model for military public health officials.
• This Pandemic Influenza Policy Model (PIPM) is a collaborative computer modeling effort between the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory and U.S. Department of Defense.
• Incidentally, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s “Best Practices and Model Protocols” provides many interesting discussions of model inputs.
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3. Risk Management Solutions
• The model by a catastrophe risk modeling firm, Risk Management Solutions (RMS), supplies thousands of unique pandemic scenarios.
• These vary based on demographics, virus infectiousness, vaccine production and efficacy, lethality of virus and pandemic lifecycle.
• Additional information is available at “Managing Influenza Pandemic Risk”.
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4. FluTE
• FluTE is an open source model.
• The model is calibrated so that outcomes are consistent with the 2009 pandemic A(H1N1) and 1957/1958 Asian A(H2N2) influenza viruses.
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5. Milliman
• Milliman, a consulting actuary, has modeled pandemics so that they may price mortality catastrophe bonds.
• It is an actuarial model based on a frequency and severity approach.
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6. Epidemic Simulation System
• The National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC), which is at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, has the Epidemic Simulation System (EpiSimS).
• EpiSimS models the U.S. as fifteen regions.
• Each region is composed of around 20 million synthetic individuals.
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7. INFORMS Simulation Society
• At the INFORMS Simulation Society Winter Conference of 2009, a paper was presented on a simulation model for pandemic preparedness planning.
• The paper presents a geospatial and temporal disease spread model for flu pandemics with particular attention paid to school closings.
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8. Global Epidemic Model
• The Global Epidemic Model (GEM) enables testing of intervention strategies.
• It uses uses population data and airline travel data to create an air travel network among the major metropolitan areas of the world.
• It then models the course of the potential epidemic as it spreads around the world.
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9. VirSim
• VirSim was developed to help support policy making.
• Governments can decide on intervention strategies, and lost work and hospitalization effects on society are documented.
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10. University of South Florida
• The University of South Florida’s model performs simulations for development of dynamic mitigation strategies.
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Other Models
• Some other models include Georgia Tech’s, The University of Western Australia’s, a Biological Model for Influenza Transmission, a model of Japan and an Avian-human influenza epidemic model.
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Other Sources
• Additional sources are PandemicSimulation.com, a pandemic simulation community website, NPR, The Scientist and MAA.
• See www.CatRisky.com for catastrophe risk trends and news.
• Thank you!