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OzEcco Today 2009• Transition to a low carbon economy
• Energy security….mainly transport• Economic growth……enough• Infrastructure• Ecological refurbishment• Whole economy resilience• Physical affluence…..enough• National debt• Balance of trade
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OzEcco Today 2009• Transition to a low carbon economy
• Energy security….mainly transport• Economic growth……enough• Infrastructure• Ecological refurbishment• Whole economy resilience• Physical affluence…..enough• National debt• Balance of trade
Solutions not
Problems
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Context for Work circa 1993• Future human population levels • Effect on land/water/air/biodiversity and natural amenity (environmental sectors)
• Humans effect everything….thus the meaning of life
• Search for a science based approach to integration (unpopular….not science)
• Economic ‘equilibrium’ models the norm
• But some ‘policy’ interest and support (until the results started to emerge)
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ECONOMICEFFICIENCY
SOCIAL EQUITYENVIRONMENTALQUALITY
BAU
EconomicGrowth
ConservativeDevelopment
PostMaterialism
OzEcco Energy Flows Model
HMC Production & Use
Agriculture & ForestryMining
Services
HousingIndustry
CapitalStock
Industry
IndustrialOutput
Investment inOther SectorsReinvestment
in Industry Materialstandard of
Living
AvailableHMC International
Trade
Sector-specificActivities
+
-
+
++ +
(+)
Australian Stocks and Flows FrameworkHouseholds
ASFF
Demography
Materials & Energy
Land Resources
Water Resources
Air Resources
Balance of Trade Material Resources
Material Conversion
Artefacts /Infrastructure
Lifestyle
Population
Working population
Consumption
Services
Building Space
Transportation
Construction Equipment
Recycling
Processing & Assembly
Power Generation
Agriculture
Forestry
Fisheries
Mining
QUALITATIVEScenarios
+ BOOKS/Conferences
QUANTITATIVEModels
Aggregated & top down
Highly dis-aggregated & bottom up
SEPARATING Values from Data Analysis
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OzEcco Energy Flows Model
HMC Production & Use
Agriculture & Forestry
Mining
Services
HousingIndustry
CapitalStock
Industry
IndustrialOutput
Investment inOther SectorsReinvestment
in Industry Materialstandard of
Living
AvailableHMC International
Trade
Sector-specificActivities
+
-
+
++ +
(+)
• Redevelop in Vensim• Fossil electricity • CCS• Renewables• Nuclear• Transport…gas and shale oil• Transport…methanol/DME and
ethanol• Continental land account• Continental water accounting• Detailed forestry sector• Sovereign wealth fund to
control rebound• Aggregate indicators
OzEcco Developments: Aggregated and top-down and also dollar/energy translation
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Australian Stocks and Flows Framework
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Two Policy Worlds:--Renewable energy--Conventional wisdom
Study Rationale• Oil replacement• Regional enterprise• Refurbish farming systems• Biodiversity augmentation• Salinity control• Carbon neutrality• Vital third landuse adding to
animals and crops• Drought resilient
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The Renewables Transition ‘Base Case’ STOCKS
$74,000 billion
Base Case Stocks Accumulated 2006-2051
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
GDP-$billion CO2- tonnesmillion
Capital Stocks-PJ embodied
Future Fund-$ billion
PhysicalAffluence-GJ/capita
29 billion tonnes
Twice today’s level
$1,000 billion
7,200 GJ/capita =
60 msc
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90% Shale Oil Scenarios
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Accum GDP Accum CO2 PhysicalAffluence
CapitalStocks
Future Fund
Headline Indicators
Base Case
90% Shale R
90% Shale R+TE
90% Shale IS
90% Shale IS+TE
90% Natural Gas Scenarios
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Accum GDP Accum CO2 PhysicalAffluence
CapitalStocks
Future Fund
Headline Indicators
Base Case
90% Gas
90%Gas + LE
90%Gas + LE/TE
Fossil Oil ReplacersShale
CNG
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Biofuel Oil Replacers
90% Ethanol Scenarios
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Accum GDP Accum CO2 PhysicalAffluence
CapitalStocks
Future Fund
Headline Indicators
Base Case
90% Crop
90% Ligno
90% Thermo
90% Methanol Scenarios
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Accum GDP Accum CO2 PhysicalAffluence
CapitalStocks
Future Fund
Headline Indicators
Base Case
90% Meth
90%M +TE
90%M +ZE
90%M+TE/ZE
Ethanol
Methanol/DME
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Renewable Electricity Transitioncomposition of electricity delivered
Proportional Source of Electricity Production by Technology Type: 80% Renewable Electricity
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051
Simulation Period
Gig
aw
att
Ho
urs
EPWIN
EPSTH
EPSPV
EPNUC
EPHYD
EPGST
EPGCC
EPFCL
EPCST
EPCCC
EPBIO
EPBCS
Brown C
Black C
Wind
Coal CC
Gas CC
Hydro
Gas T
Solar T
Biomass
Solar PV
Source of Electricity Production in Gigawatt Hours by Technology Type: Base Case
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051
Simulation Period
Pro
po
rtio
n
EPWIN
EPSTH
EPSPV
EPNUC
EPHYD
EPGST
EPGCC
EPFCL
EPCST
EPCCC
EPBIO
EPBCS
Brown C
Black C
Wind
Gas CCCoal CC
Gas CC
Base Case 80% Renewables
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0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Accum GDP
Accum CO2
Physical Affluence
Capital Stocks
Future Fund
80% Renewable Electricity
Base Case
80% Renewable
Renewable Electricity Transition
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Best Conventional Transitioncomposition of electricity delivered
Base Case 90% Advanced Generation
Proportional Source of Electricity Production by Technology Type: Best Conventional
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051
Simulation Period
Gig
aw
att
Ho
urs
EPWIN
EPSTH
EPSPV
EPNUC
EPHYD
EPGST
EPGCC
EPFCL
EPCST
EPCCC
EPBIO
EPBCS
Brown C
Black C
Wind
Coal CC
Gas CC
Hydro
Gas T
Biomass
Fuel Cell
NuclearSource of Electricity Production in Gigawatt Hours by
Technology Type: Base Case
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051
Simulation Period
Pro
po
rtio
n
EPWIN
EPSTH
EPSPV
EPNUC
EPHYD
EPGST
EPGCC
EPFCL
EPCST
EPCCC
EPBIO
EPBCS
Brown C
Black C
Wind
Gas CCCoal CC
Gas CC
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0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Accum GDP
Accum CO2
Physical Affluence
Capital Stocks
Future Fund
90% Advanced Conventional Electricity
Base Case
90% Adv Elect
Best Conventional Transition
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Carbon Sequestration and Storage
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Accum GDP
Accum CO2
Physical Affluence
Capital Stocks
Future Fund
80% CCS in Thermal Coal and Advanced Fossil
Base Case
CCS in Base Case
Advanced Fossil
CCS in Adv Foss
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Nuclear with Safeguards
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
Accum GDP
Accum CO2
Physical Affluence
Capital Stocks
Future Fund
30 % and 60% Nuclear Power
Base Case
30% Nuclear
60% Nuclear
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Full Renewables TransitionLow carbon electricity and transport fuels
Source: Foran… ‘Powerful Choices’ Study
Base Case, Normal Renewables and Low-Growth Renewables
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
Accum GDP Accum CO2 PhysicalAffluence
CapitalStocks
Future Fund
Headline Indicator
Mil
lio
ns
Base Case
Renewables
Low Growth
A lowgrowtheconomy
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Issues: Philosophical, Technical and Computational
• Macro/macro scales• Efficiency, rebound, sovereign wealth funds
• Growth, no-growth, development• Globalised trade and balance of payments (is there no end to it?)
• Communication….specific technical issues e.g. CCS
• Communication….the big ideas