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Observed Global Climate Change
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Review of last lectureReview of last lecture
Tropical climate:
• Mean state: The two basic regions of SST? Which region has stronger rainfall? What is the Walker circulation?
• Mean state: Two types of ocean upwelling, ocean-atmosphere feedback
• El Nino and La Nina: Which region has warm SST anomaly during El Nino? 4-year period.
• Land-sea contrasts: seasonal monsoon
Extratropical climate:
• Mean state: westerly winds, polar vortex
• What is the primary way El Nino affect extratropics? (PNA)
• The oscillations associated with strengthening/weakening of polar vortex: AO, AAO
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• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is organized by the World Meteorological Organization, and endorsed by the United Nations General Assembly.
• This is a worldwide enterprise that includes literally thousands of scientists that are involved in producing and critiquing a definitive statement on climate change. The political controversies have centered around condensed summaries produced for policy makers.
• We have had 5 assessments by IPCC so far.• First Assessment Report (1990)• Second Assessment Report (1995) • Third Assessment Report (2001)• Fourth Assessment Report (2007): Nobel Peace
Prize • Fifth Assessment Report (2013-2014)
How is scientific consensus achieved on global warming?
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How do human activities change the global climate?
Human beings are changing the global climate system in three different ways:
• Release or cleanse greenhouse gases• Release or cleanse pollutants (aerosols) • Change land cover (deforestation and urbanization)
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The most common atmospheric circulation structure
L
H
H
L
HeatingCoolingor No Heating
Imbalance of heating Imbalance of temperature Imbalance of pressure Wind
Radiation Convection Conduction
Latent/Sensible
BiosphereLand/Ocean/Ice/
Stratosphere Feedback
Greenhouse Gases
Pollution
Clouds Precipitation (Latent heat)
SpiritualSocialHealthEconomy
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Observed change of greenhouse gases
Global atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and CH4 have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice core measurements spanning the last 650,000 years!
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Radiative heating of greenhouse gases
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Source of greenhouse gases
CO2 fossil fuel use is the dominant cause of CO2 increase
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GHG Emissions by Sector
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Greenhouse gas emissions per capita
The developed countries and developing countries contribute almost equally to the emissions of GHGs.
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Video: A global warning?https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_miunplJK4
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Observed Change in Global Temperature: Significant warming
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Global map of temperature change: Largest warming in Arctic (“Arctic amplification”)
Larger warming over land than ocean
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Global map of snow/ice cover
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Observed Melting of Arctic Sea Ice
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/multiyear.ice.quikscat.mov
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Melting of Greenland Ice Sheet – A huge contributor to sea level rise today
Greenland is responsible for about 10% of the observed global sea level riseand accelerating. Greenland holds 7 m of sea level equivalent.
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Observed Changes in Snow Cover: Significant melting
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Melting of Mountain Glaciers: a major contributor to sea level rise
IPCC (2001)
Glacier retreat is a world-wide phenomena.
Will affect water supply for millions:• Kenya/Tanzania• Northern India• Andes Mountains
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1917 2008
1978 2004
Qori Kalis Glacier, Peru
Pedersen Glacier, Kenai Fjords National Park, Alaska
Pasterze Glacier, Austria
1875 2004
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Observed Changes in Global Sea Level
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Observed Changes in Sea Level Largest in the western part of ocean basin
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Summary: Observed significant changes
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Change in Mean vs Change in Extremes
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Observed changes in precipitation extremes: Increased contribution from very wet days
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Summary: Observed significant changes in extreme weather
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Summary
• 3 ways human activities affect the climate.
• Rapid increase of greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O) since 1750: far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice core measurements spanning the last 650,000 years, which is mainly caused by CO2 fossil fuel use. Lead to strong radiative heating.
• The developed countries and developing countries contribute almost equally to the emissions of GHGs.
• Observed change of mean: air temperature, ocean temperature, melting of arctic sea ice, Greenland ice sheet, snow and glaciers, rising of sea level.
• Observed change of extreme events: extreme precipitation events, heat waves, strongest hurricanes
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Works cited• http://www.earthtimes.org/environment/greenhouse-gases/
• National Snow & Ice Data Center
• http://sciencewithme.com/learn-about-global-warming/
• http://www.chemistryland.com/CHM107Lab/Exp04_biodiesel/BiodieselLab/Exp4Biodiesel.html
• http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/greenland-ice-sheet/greenland-ice-sheet-assessment-published
• http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/
• http://www.treehugger.com/clean-technology/yahoos-5-stunning-before-and-after-pictures-of-melting-glaciers.html
• http://www.detectingdesign.com/ancientice.html
• http://nca2009.globalchange.gov/human-health
• http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2012/10/30/hurricane-sandy-floods-new-york-city-photos-show-devastation/
• http://ocean.nationalgeographic.com/ocean/critical-issues-sea-level-rise/
• http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/multisensor_global_snow_ice.html