Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
TEPS/LAMEPS at met.no
Marit Helene Jensen, Inger-Lise Frogner, Hilde Haakenstad and Ole Vignes
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
TEPS/LAMEPS
• An ensemble prediction system using IFS and HIRLAM
• Running daily since mid Feb. 2005 (quasi operational)
• Focus: Precipitation (large precipitation events of special interest)
• TEPS/LAMEPS is a supplement to EPS from ECMWF:
• LAMEPS has better resolution• TEPS/LAMEPS is designed for our area of
interest• Is valid for day 1 – 3
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
TEPS/LAMEPS – set-up
TEPS/LAMEPS:• TEPS (global model) (~80 km/40 lev.): as EPS,
except:• TEPS is targeted to our area of interest• 20 + 1 members (EPS 50 + 1)
• LAMEPS (regional model, ~20 km / 40 lev.): • HIRLAM 20 + 1 members• Initial perturbations and lateral boundary
conditions from TEPS (6 hourly updates on boundaries)
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
Verificationarea
• Target area SVs
Integration areaHIRLAM
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
Generation of perturbations
Running TEPS to +90h
20 + 1 members12 UTCTEPS is automatically transferred to met.no
TEPS is made ready to run in the Norwegian model environment
TEPS is transferred to Trondheim
Generation of HIRLAM perturbations
LAMEPS running 18 UTC, to +60hResults from LAMEPStransferred back to met.no
Generation ofproducts forusers/customers
00 UTC
30 minutes 2 hours
19 UTC
50 minutes
ECMWF
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
Verification
• 20+1 TEPS/LAMPES/EPS members• Time period 14/2-12/4-2005• Parameter: 24 hours precipitation
(from 06 to 06 UTC)• Forecast lengths
LAMEPS: +36 and +60 hoursTEPS : +42 and +66 hoursEPS : +42 and +66 hours
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
ROC
+36/+42h
NTOT= 81409, NOCC= 778, P_CLI=0.010NTOT= 81409, NOCC= 5040, P_CLI=0.062
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
+60/+66h
NTOT= 81288, NOCC= 5037, P_CLI=0.062 NTOT= 81288, NOCC= 808, P_CLI=0.010
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
Cost/loss
+36/+42h
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
+60/+66h
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
BSS/Area ROC
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
Summary verification
• Small precipitation amounts – TEPS/EPS best
• Medium precipitation amounts (~10 mm/day) - TEPS/EPS best
• Large precipitation amounts (15 mm/day and more) – LAMEPS best
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
Case study: “100 year precipitation” in the middle part of Norway in
August 2003
• 14. – 15. August 2003• Atnadalen: 116,5 mm/24h, 156,2 mm/48h• Sunndalsøra: 102,5 mm/24h, 171,9 mm/48h
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
Observed
14. Aug. 06UTC - 15. Aug. 06UTC
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
Operational HIRLAM 20 km
+42h
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
ECMWFensemble
+42h
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
LAMEPSensemble
+42h
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
Use of LAMEPS
• Forecasting • EU-project Eurorisk• Storm-surge LAMEPS• Input to hydrological models
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
Examples of use of LAMEPS
Area: Selbusjøen 615mohTime T2m dT/dz R6
18+ 0 7.4 -1.3 0.018+ 6 1.0 -0.7 0.018+12 1.7 -0.8 1.5……18+54 3.3 -0.6 1.518+60 5.1 -0.7 0.3
• Ensemble of hydrological models – one time series for each ensemble member as input to the hydrological models (customers)
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
Examples of use cont.
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
Future developments
• Include perturbing of the model physics
• Increase the time resolution of the boundary fields
• Expand system to more parameters: temperature, wind, ….
• Develop probability products• Compute SVs within HIRLAM• Move to higher resolution