North America Light Vehicle Outlook
October 3, 2012
Guido Vildozo Manager, Latin America IHS Automotive
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Presentation Outline
Global Vehicle Sales Forecasts
North America Overview
United States
Mexico
Summary
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
External Shocks to The Global Auto Industry
Spluttering Along
Spain & Italy Defaults, Eurozone Breaks Apart Global Financial Crisis II (Early Vortex)
Greece Exits
RECOVERY Re-ignites
Sub-Prime Crisis Bear Sterns
Oil Hits $147
Lehman Bros
Economies Rebound (inventory)
Libya, Arab Spring, Oil Surges
Japan Disasters
Greek Debt Crisis kicks off
Liquidity Freeze
Global Great Recession
US Debt Ceiling Debacle Downgraded
Is Greece Europe's Lehman Bros ?
Confidence Slumps
Markets Drag Italy Into PIIGS Class
Inflation Surges in Emerging Markets
TARP China Stimulates
Banks Recapitalised, Nationalised, Guaranteed
Fiscal Pump Priming
Private Sector Debt => Sovereign Debt
Confidence Slumps
Banking System is Stabilized
Consumer De-leveraging
Mature Economies Growth Fades
Consumer De-leveraging Still There
Polic
y R
espo
nse
Event or Shock
QEII Interest Rates Slashed, QEI
Auto Incentives Europe, China, Brazil, Japan, US India
Auto Incentives Ending
Auto Incentives Phasing out
Auto Bail Outs, Financing and Restructuring
World Auto Sales Track
Cooling Measures In EM
Japan Supply Chain Crisis
Fiscal Tightening Accelerated
Successive EU Summits -no silver bullet
Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12ECB (LTRO)
ESM
Iran embargo
?
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Global Light Vehicle Sales
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Mill
ions
BASE OPTIMISTIC PESSIMISTIC
.
% CHANGE 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 BASE 4.3% 4.7% 3.1% 6.7% 5.9%
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Light Vehicle Sales: Top Ten Manufacturers
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Mill
ions
Volkswagen-Porsche Toyota General MotorsRenault-Nissan Hyundai-Kia FordFiat Auto-Chrysler Honda PSASuzuki
Units/MM Global players, look for more cooperation among OEMS in the future
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Light Vehicle Sales: Greater China the New Colossus
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Mill
ions
% CHANGE 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 BASE 3.6% 7.2% 8.7% 10.7% 8.9%
Sales struggling a bit this year, soft landing is key to long-term growth
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Light Vehicle Sales: Western Europe
12
13
14
15
16
17
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Mill
ions
Units/MM
% CHANGE 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 BASE -0.3% -8.8% -2.0% 5.5% 5.3%
Fiscal austerity will limit long term recovery
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Light Vehicle Sales: Western Europe
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Mill
ion
s
France Germany Italy Spain United Kingdom
% CHANGE 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 France -1.4% -10.5% -4.2% 5.9% 2.7% Germany 9.7% -2.2% -0.1% 4.1% 1.7% Italy -9.9% -21.5% -1.0% 7.6% 11.8% Spain -17.0% -16.7% -2.4% 13.1% 24.3% UK -2.3% 1.1% -0.8% 5.6% 5.6%
“Southern Tier “ takes big hit, “Northern Tier” never regains scrappage peak
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Light Vehicle Sales: Eastern and Central Europe
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Mill
ions
Units/MM
% CHANGE 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 BASE 23.8% 3.3% 3.0% 9.3% 6.0%
Russia drives short term gains, other EE and CE sustain long term growth
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Light Vehicle Sales: North America
10111213141516171819202122
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Mill
ions
BASE OPTIMISTIC PESSIMISTIC
% CHANGE 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 BASE 9.3% 10.3% 3.8% 5.2% 3.7%
US leads recovery, but Canada and Mexico having a strong 2012
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Light Vehicle Sales: South America
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Mill
ions
BASE OPTIMISTIC PESSIMISTIC
% CHANGE 2011 2012 2013 2014 BASE 9.3% 5.5% -0.6% 6.1%
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Auto Industry, Balancing the “Old World” and “New Frontiers”
Triad Markets
(West Europe, Japan, North America)
‘E7’ (China, India, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey)
G7 (Germany, France, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, Russia, Canada, USA)
BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India,
China)
VISTA (Vietnam, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey,
Argentina)
MIST (Mexico, Indonesia, South
Korea, Turkey)
GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council)
N-11 (Next 11 - Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran,
South Korea, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey and Vietnam).
CEMENT (Countries in Emerging
Markets Excluded by New Terminology)
CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa)
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Country Vehicle Penetration Scatterplot Reveals Strong GDP-Vehicle Need Relationship
Vehi
cles
In U
se P
er 1
000
Peo
ple
GDP Per Capita (in thousand 2005 US$)
US
Sweden
Russia
S Korea
Japan
Australia
Brazil
Italy Slovenia
Spain
China
Poland Czech Rep
Canada
UK France
Germany
Taiwan
India
Thailand
Hungary
Mexico
Turkey Chile
Linear Trend: Each $1000 increase in wealth leads to 15 more vehicles
per 1000 people.
Source: CY2010 Data, IHS Data Insights
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y = -0.0000003749x2 + 0.0272263164x - 76.5859828870R2 = 0.7429749568
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
14
Global Light Vehicle Developments International Passenger Car Saturation Model
GDP Per Capita PPP in USD (2005)
Car density per 1000 pop
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Global Light Vehicle Developments Global Sales Forecast
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000 Beyond BRIC BRIC Mature
Key Information: • In 2000 about 80% of global light vehicle demand came out of mature markets. In 2012 this already decreased to 48% and by 2019 it will have reached 40%.
• Mature markets are not forecast to return to pre crisis 2007 volumes again. The general economic situation in various countries, demographic changes, increasing costs of ownership and different trend perceptions are only a few reasons for this development.
• China itself will contribute around 28% of global demand by 2019.
78.7 million
105.5 million
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Old Worlds and New Frontiers
05
101520253035404550
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Mill
ions
TRIAD BRICS ROW
Units/MM
ROW = Rest of World
BRICS = Brazil, Russia, India, China
TRIAD = North America, Western Europe, Japan
ROW – Iran, Saudi Arabia, South Africa are the volume leaders
Emerging markets no longer just about growth, but size and stability
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Global Light Vehicle Developments The Next Wave of Growth Markets
Population in Mio.
GDP/Capita in Real US-$
Population in Mio.
GDP/Capita in Real US-$
PopulationChange
GDP/CapitaChange
BRIC China 1,347 3,142 1,385 5,547 3% 77%BRIC India 1,241 1,065 1,372 1,802 10% 69%BRIC Brazil 197 5,729 209 7,486 6% 31%BRIC Russia 143 6,872 141 8,849 -1% 29%
1 Indonesia 242 1,660 261 2,419 7% 46%2 Mexico 115 8,378 125 10,455 9% 25%3 Philippines 95 1,434 108 1,834 14% 28%4 Turkey 74 8,325 80 10,528 9% 26%5 Thailand 70 3,024 72 4,112 3% 36%6 South Africa 50 5,969 52 7,896 4% 32%7 Colombia 47 4,130 52 5,403 11% 31%8 Argentina 41 6,773 44 8,685 7% 28%9 Malaysia 29 5,735 33 7,979 13% 39%
10 Chile 17 8,568 18 11,490 6% 34%
2011 2019
Beyond BRIC Beyond BRIC
2011 vs. 2019
Beyond BRIC
Source: IHS – August 2012 Forecast
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40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Brazil China India Russia ROW
2019 Capacity U
tilization %
Stra
ight
Tim
e C
apac
ity C
hang
e (M
illio
ns)
2012-2019 Change 2012 Utilization 2019 Utilization
Straight-Time Capacity = Core shift set up 1, 2 or 3 shifts
Capacity Shifts 2012 vs. 2019
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Capacity Expansion 2012 - 2019
0 100 200 300 400
Ford
Mitsubishi
PSA
GM
Jianghuai
Chery
Honda
Ren/Niss
VW
Fiat
Straight-time Capacity - Thousands
Brazil
0 30 60 90 120
Ren/Niss
PSA
GAZ Group
Fiat
VW
Straight-time Capacity - Thousands
Russia
19
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Capacity Expansion 2012 - 2019
0 250 500 750 1000
Honda
Ren/Niss
Tata
Hyundai
VW
GM
Ford
Bajaj Auto
Mahindra
Maruti /Suzuki
Straight-time Capacity – Thousands
India
0 300 600 900 1200
Geely
Dongfeng
FAW-VW
Dongfeng -Yueda-Kia
Great Wall
SAIC- GM-Wuling
**S-GM
Chery
Changan- Ford-Mazda
*S-VW
Straight-time Capacity - Thousands
China
20
* S-VW = Shanghai VW, ** S-GM = Shanghai GM
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Worldwide Trends
• Growing personal wealth is increasing the motorization rate in developing markets
• Air quality (smog, health effects) issues are spreading throughout the world as motorization increases, especially in cities
• Climate change (decarbonization) is becoming a global issue
• There is a growing sense of need for energy independence: some countries are turning inward to maximize the use of their own resources
• Demand for petroleum is increasing globally while lower-cost resources are largely in politically sensitive regions
• The need to import energy creates a difficult balance of trade for many countries
21
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Global CO2 Legislation Trend The countries which plan to introduce Fuel Economy regulation by 2020
Have already introduced
Will introduce
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Technology ‘Islands’ start to merge Legislative Convergence
• Standards coming in other countries as well • Likely to follow European standards • Possible global standardization of test procedures?
23
60 80
100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280
2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030
US (FTP75/US06) Europe (NEDC) Japan (JC08) China (NEDC) S.Korea (NEDC)
CO
2 (g/
km) N
orm
aliz
ed to
NE
DC
Te
st C
ycle
Global CO2 target number range now starting to converge
Global non-CO2 emission ‘norms’ continue to tighten and converge
PGM loading intensifies globally as last few regions adopt Euro3>
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Emission Summary: Most Countries Will Follow European Standards With Some Lag
24
Largely follows US standards on a sales-weighted “bubble” basis
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0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200
Time (sec)
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Spe
ed (k
m/h
)
City Mode Highway Mode
Test Cycles The decisive but divisive factor!
NEDC
FTP75/US06
JC08
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
0 300 600 900 1,200 1,500 1,800Time in s
Veh
icle
spe
ed in
km
/h
-10.0
-9.0
-8.0
-7.0
-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Acc
eler
atio
n in
m/s
²
WLTC ver.4 Acceleration
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0 5 10 15 20 25
v*a_pos in m²/s³
Cum
. fre
quen
cy
mid, WW databasemid, WLTC v2mid, WLTC v3mid, WLTC v3 1121mid, WLTC v4
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Speed (km/h)
Cum
. fre
quen
cy
mid, WW databasemid, WLTC v2mid, WLTC v3mid, WLTC v3 1121mid, WLTC v4
Cum. Frequency of V * a_positive
Cum. Frequency of Vehicle speed
WLTC ver. 4
Apply supplemental methodology
Reflection of validation1 Set minimum speed @ 10km/h Eliminate the micro transient
portions Set maximum acceleration @
95 percent tile
http://www.unece.org/trans/main/wp29/wp29wgs/wp29grpe/wltp_dhc11.html
Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP) – Characteristics of WLTC Ver.4
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Intention to Buy New Vehicle in 6 Months
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
6 Month Moving Average Actual
(Percent Yes)
Conference Board
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200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
Total Raw Material Cost in a Car
Total Cost (Euro) Total Cost (US$)
Pure Raw Material Cost in a Car – Debt Crisis Lowers Input Costs
European Car @ 2700 Lbs in Euro
US Vehicle @ 3500 Lbs In $
Steel Aluminium Plastic Resins Rubber Glass Iron
(Excludes Fuel, Processing and Transportation costs)
Latest Data Point July 2012
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0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
Direct (Bank) Loans Indirect (Dealer) Loans
(% - Accounts past due 30 days or more)
Months
Source: American Bankers Association
New Auto Loans — Delinquency Rates
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55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12
Unweighted Average of Prime, Near and SubprimeMonths
New Auto Loan Application Approvals
Source: CNW Marketing
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4.55.05.56.06.57.07.58.08.59.09.5
10.0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Quarters
(Percent)
Federal Reserve Board
New Auto Loan Rates – Commercial Banks
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$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
$5,000
$5,500
$6,000
$6,500
$7,000
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
GM Ford Chrysler Toyota Nissan Honda
Manufacturer Incentives
Source: CNW Marketing
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30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12GM Ford Chrysler IndustryToyota Honda Nissan
Source: CNW Marketing Months
Residual Value Index (Index = Lease contract residual value versus CNW estimate of residual at end of lease term)
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 34
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
Leases by Month
(Share)
US Light Vehicle Sales: Lease Penetration
Source: CNW Marketing
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US Light Vehicle Inventory: Units
Months — Seasonally Adjusted
(Units in thousands)
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
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US Light Vehicle Inventory: Days Supply
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
(Days Supply)
Months — Seasonally Adjusted
Light Trucks
Cars
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89
10111213141516171819202122
Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13
SUVL
(Units in millions)
US Light Vehicle Sales, SAAR
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 38
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 20188
10
12
14
16
18
September 2012 Forecast July 2011 Forecast
(Units in millions)
US Light Vehicle Sales
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US Sales: Major Manufacturers Market Share
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
GM FORD CHRYSLER/FIAT TOYOTAHONDA NISSAN HYUNDAI/KIA
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US Sales: By Car Segment (54%)
0%2%4%6%8%
10%12%14%16%18%20%22%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Compact Full-Size Micro + Mini Mid-Size Sports Subcompact
(Light Vehicle Share)
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US Sales: By Light Truck Segment (46%)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
CUV MPV PUP SUV VAN
(Light Vehicle Share)
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8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Mill
ions
Volume - L Canada- R Mexico - R
`
(Units in millions)
North America - Light Vehicle Production
(Share of NA Prod.)
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North America - Light Vehicles Exports
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Mill
ions
Volume - L Change - %
(Units/)
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NA Export Sales: By Region of Destination
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Asia Europe Middle East/Africa South America
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US Auto Market Overview • Pent – Up demand is driving the auto recovery. • Sales have exceeded expectations, despite a sluggish economy. • There has been a heavy dose of fleet activity in the first half of the
year. • Sales have improved, as Japanese cars return to the showrooms. • High gasoline prices actually helped sales (trade-in gas guzzlers) • Incentive spending has risen modestly, as inventories rebuild, but
there is more pricing discipline today. • There is an over-supply of 2012 models; inventories are getting
heavy. • Auto credit quality is excellent and availability is almost back to
normal. • The used car and truck market is the healthiest it has been in years. • Cost pressures are easing and industry profits in North America are
good.
Bottom Line – A weak economy will hurt the release of pent up demand, slowing not derailing, the auto market recovery
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 46
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1/1/1997 1/1/1999 1/1/2001 1/1/2003 1/1/2005 1/1/2007 1/1/2009 1/1/2011
(Units in Millions)
Mexico Light Vehicle Sales: Seasonally Adjusted Annual Selling Rate - SAAR
Monthly
Annual Average
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70
80
90
100
110
120
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 LV Sales (left scale) Consumer Confidence
Monthly Sales: Moving Average vs. Consumer Confidence
Thousand Units Index
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 48
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
1,100,000
1,200,000
1,300,000
1,400,000
1,500,000
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Light Veh -L Annual Change -R
Mexico:Light Vehicle Sales
Units
Used car imports and credit availability limit growth
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 Others Suzuki Daimler BMW Mitsubishi Mazda Honda Toyota Chrysler Ford Volkswagen General Motors Renault/Nissan
Percentage
Mexico: Market Share
Nissan grows in coming years
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Mexico: Global Segmentation
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
A B C D E F HVAN
Mill
ions
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Units
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Mexico: Bodystyle
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
Mill
ions
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Units
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 52
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
PROD
Producing for Export
Mexico Light Vehicle Production (millions of units)
Forecast at risk due to Brazil
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Mexico to Brazil –ACE 55
53
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Imports from Mexico [US$] 947,500,00 1,260,900,000 2,070,000,000 1,450,000,000 1,560,000,000 1,640,000,000
Imports from Mexico [Units] 60,138 76,748 121,745 93,500 100,000 104, 500
Vehicle price per unit [US$] 15,755 16,429 17,003 15,500 15,600 15,700
•Very little impact YOY to 2012 figures, but we had expected 200-250K. Impact will be hardest for 2013 and 2014. •Difficult to compete after quota is hit, so far Asians are down 20-40%
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 54
Mexico Light Vehicle Production: By OEM
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Renault/Nissan General Motors Volkswagen Ford Chrysler Fiat Mazda
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Units
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Bottom Line • With the exception of Western Europe, global demand will
continue to gather momentum • BRICs will outsell TRIAD (USA, WE and Japan) within a
few years • Mexico has to explore new opportunities given this
scenario, South America presents great potential • The US has turned the corner, promising outlook for sales
and production • Mexican demand has broken the million unit mark! • Production is promising but big uncertainties lie in the
future
Thank You for Your Participation!
• Guido Vildozo • Manager, Latin America • IHS Automotive
• Contact: • 24 Hartwell Ave • Lexington, MA 02421 USA
• Ph: +1 781 301 9037 • Em: [email protected]