Global Market Forecast 2011 - 2030
Presented byJohn Leahy
Chief Operating OfficerCustomers
North America
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Page 2
GMF 2011 Highlights
Market value of $3.5 trillion
Source: Airbus GMF
World fleet forecast 2010 2030 % change
RPK (trillion) 4.8 12.3 +157%
Passenger aircraft fleet 15,000 31,420 +109%
New passenger aircraft deliveries - 26,920 -
Dedicated freighters 1,600 3,020 +90%
New freighter aircraft deliveries - 830 -
Total new aircraft deliveries 27,750
GMF 2011 key numbers and 20-year change
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20-year demand for almost 27,800 new passenger and freight aircraft
Market value of $3.5 trillion
Source: Airbus GMFPassenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) Jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)
1,680 very large aircraft
6,920 twin-aisle aircraft
19,170 single-aisle aircraft
~27,800 new aircraft
20-year new deliveries of passenger and freight aircraft
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GDP and passenger traffic development
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
-5%
-3%
-1%
1%
3%
5%
7%
9%
J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N-0.05
-0.03
-0.01
0.01
0.03
0.05
0.07
0.09
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
World Traffic (ASKs)
Real & forecast GDP
October Passenger traffic up 6.3%
World real GDP and passenger traffic (year-over-year)
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Page 5
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
A two-speed world
New York, November-December 2011Credit Suisse Aerospace and Defense Conference - Airbus Commercial update
Source: Global Insight, Airbus* 54 emerging economies
Real GDP growth (%)
Emerging economies*
Mature economies
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Page 6
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
A two-speed world
New York, November-December 2011Credit Suisse Aerospace and Defense Conference - Airbus Commercial update
Source: Global Insight, Airbus* 54 emerging economies
History Forecast
Real GDP growth (%)
Emerging economies*
Mature economies
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Over 25% of the total world RPKs are carried on US and Canadian airlines
2010 regional distribution of total RPK traffic per airline domicile
Middle East7%
Asia24%
Europe27%
North America27%
Latin America5%
Africa3%Pacific region
4%
CIS3%
Source: OAG, Airbus GMF
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Main drivers for future growth• Replacement of aircraft in service in mature markets
• Dynamic growth in emerging markets – population and economics
• Increasing urbanisation driving wealth and traffic growth
• Strong continued growth in North American and European markets
• Expanding global middle class, especially in Asia
• Continued growth of LCCs
• Market liberalisation – more to come
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Page 9
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Air travel remains a growth market
Source: ICAO, Airbus
World annual traffic (RPKs - trillions)
20-year world annual traffic growth
4.8%ICAO
total trafficAirbus
GMF 2011
Air traffichas doubled
every 15 years
Air trafficwill doublein the next15 years
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Even with its size and maturity, North American inter-regional traffic has grown by 11% over the last 10 years
Source: OAG, comparing month of September
ASK growth: 2010 vs. 2000 (Inter-regional passenger traffic)
Middle East+229%
PRC+124%
Europe+34%
Latin America+29%
Africa+87%
Asia – Pacific region+34%
CIS+146%
India Sub-continent+141%
North America+11%
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0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
Asia-Pacific
Europe
North America
Middle East
Latin America
CIS
Africa
Asia-Pacific to lead in world traffic by 2030
Source: Airbus GMF
2010 traffic 2010-2030 traffic 28%
27%
27%
7%
5%
3%
3%
20-year world annual traffic growth
4.8%
5.7%
4.0%
3.3%
7.4%
6.1%
4.9%
5.6%
% of 2010world RPK
20-year growth
33%
23%
20%
11%
6%
4%
3%
% of 2030world RPK
World traffic by airline domicile (RPK billions)
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Page 12
0 500 1000 1500
Domestic United StatesDomestic PRC
Intra Western EuropeUnited States - Western Europe
Domestic IndiaMiddle East - Western Europe
Asia - Western EuropeSouth America - Western Europe
Asia - PRCIntra Asia
PRC - Western EuropeCentral Europe - Western Europe
Indian Sub - Middle EastDomestic BrazilDomestic Asia
North Africa - Western EuropeMiddle East - United States
Asia - Middle EastPRC - United States
Japan - United States
Today and in 2030, Domestic US traffic is and will continue to be the largest single flow
20-year growth
2.4%7.2%3.2%3.9%9.8%5.7%4.3%5.1%6.8%6.4%6.2%5.7%6.2%6.6%5.6%4.6%7.1%5.5%6.6%3.8%
% of 2010 World RPK
17.8%6.0%
10.3%6.4%1.0%1.9%2.4%2.1%1.5%1.6%1.5%1.6%1.4%1.3%1.5%1.5%0.9%1.2%1.0%1.7%
RPKs (billions)% of 2030
World RPK11.1%9.3%7.5%5.4%2.6%2.3%2.2%2.2%2.2%2.1%2.0%1.9%1.9%1.8%1.7%1.4%1.4%1.4%1.4%1.4%
2030 top 20 largest traffic flows
2010 traffic 2011-2030 growth
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Page 13
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
1970 1990 2010 2030
Traffic linking the emerging marketsto more than triple by 2030
Source: Airbus GMF
Traffic within or including emerging economies
Traffic within & between developed economies
76% 63% 43%30%24%
37%
70%
Market share on total traffic, emerging vs. mature traffic flows
RPK (trillion)
57%
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Page 14
GMF 2011 Highlights
Market value of $3.5 trillion
Source: Airbus GMF
World fleet forecast 2010 2030 % change
RPK (trillion) 4.8 12.3 +157%
Passenger aircraft fleet 15,000 31,420 +109%
New passenger aircraft deliveries - 26,920 -
Dedicated freighters 1,600 3,020 +90%
New freighter aircraft deliveries - 830 -
Total new aircraft deliveries 27,750
GMF 2011 key numbers and 20-year change
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Page 15
GMF 2011 Highlights: North America
Market value of $648 billion
Source: Airbus GMF
World fleet forecast 2010 2030 % change
RPK (trillion) 1.30 2.47 +92%
Passenger aircraft fleet 4,025 6,665 +66%
New passenger aircraft deliveries - 5,901 -
Dedicated freighters 1,000 1,797 +80%
New freighter aircraft deliveries - 414 -
Total new aircraft deliveries 6,315
GMF 2011 key numbers and 20-year change for North America
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Strongest growth potential connecting to developing regions
Source: Airbus GMF
RPK growth: annual average 2011-2030
Asia - Pacific5.3%
Europe4%
Latin America4.8%
Africa5.6%
CIS6.2%
Middle East7.1%
North America2011-2020 2021-2030 20-year
growth4.0% 3.5% 3.7%
World2011-2020 2021-2030 20-year
growth5.4% 4.3% 4.8%
2.5%
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Pending demand for aircraft replacement in North America
Ongoing replacement wave of out of production aircraft
Source: Ascend, Airbus
Asia
EuropeNorth America
Latin America
Africa
Middle East
WorldModern
Out of Production
79%
70%
75%
72%
56%
67%
59%2010 Fleet
Today, ~ 4500 out of
production aircraft to be replaced by more eco-
efficient model
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Page 18
20-year demand for over 6,300 new passenger and freight aircraft in North America
Market value of $648 billion
Source: Airbus GMFPassenger aircraft (≥ 100seats) Jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)
206 very large aircraft
1,140 twin-aisle aircraft
4,970 single-aisle aircraft
~6,300 new aircraft
20-year new deliveries of passenger and freight aircraft
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Page 19
Gulf CrisisOil CrisisAsianCrisis
WTCAttackOil Crisis SARS
FinancialCrisis
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Air travel has proved to be resilient to external shocks
Source: ICAO, Airbus
* since 2000
World annual traffic (RPKs - trillions)
+45%
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Page 20
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Since 2000, air travel has grown 45%, the growth in fuel demand relatively flat….
Source: CERA (Cambridge Energy Research Associates, Inc.)Jet fuel demand data: CERA (millions of barrels of jet fuel)
Evolution of RPKs and jet fuel demand (Base 100 in 2000)
Traffic growth
Jet fuel demand
Traffic+45%
Fuel+3%
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Page 21
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
History Forecast
Average oil prices have rebounded to 2008 values
Fuel costs have quadrupled in a decade
Source: US EIA (Energy Information Administration), IHS Global Insight, Airbus
Oil price (Current US$)
Average annual WTI oil price (US$ per bbl)
Average Annual Price
Per Barrel>$120
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Airbus has sold over 11,000 aircraft
11,502 aircraft sold to 334 customersOrder backlog of over 4,000 aircraft
To 24th November 2011Total sales include A330, A310 and A340 models
A350 Family
A380 Family
A330 Family
A320 Family
New York, November-December 2011Credit Suisse Aerospace and Defense Conference - Airbus Commercial update
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Airbus North America: strong market presence
New York, November-December 2011Credit Suisse Aerospace and Defense Conference - Airbus Commercial update
17 customers, over 1,100 aircraft in operationDelivery backlog of over 600 aircraft
includes two private operators: and five Canadian Armed Forces A310-300s
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2011 gross market share
To 24th November 2011
Boeing63228%Airbus
159372%
Units
Boeing98.337%
Airbus166.463%
Revenues
2225 industryorders
$264.7 bnindustry
New York, November-December 2011Credit Suisse Aerospace and Defense Conference - Airbus Commercial update
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2011 net market share
To 24th November 2011
Boeing51626%Airbus
144274%
Units
Boeing$82.937%
Airbus$143.6
63%
Revenues
1958 industryorders
$226.5 bnindustry
New York, November-December 2011Credit Suisse Aerospace and Defense Conference - Airbus Commercial update
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Airbus is the market leader in gross orders
New York, November-December 2011Credit Suisse Aerospace and Defense Conference - Airbus Commercial update
Largest aircraft manufacturer 10 out of last 11 years
To 24th November 2011
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Airbus Boeing
Annual gross orders
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Airbus is the market leader in deliveries
New York, November-December 2011Credit Suisse Aerospace and Defense Conference - Airbus Commercial update
Largest aircraft manufacturer 9 out of last 11 years
2011 Figures are publicly stated targets
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Airbus Boeing
Annual deliveries
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The market leading A380
New York, November-December 2011Credit Suisse Aerospace and Defense Conference - Airbus Commercial update
An A380 takes off or lands every 10 minutes
To 24th November 2011
243 firm orders63 deliveries18 customers
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Air transport growth is highest in expanding regions
New York, November-December 2011Credit Suisse Aerospace and Defense Conference - Airbus Commercial update
Billions of people will increasingly want to travel by air
ChinaIndia Middle EastAsiaAfrica CISLatin AmericaEastern EuropeE
xpan
ding
regi
ons
Western EuropeNorth AmericaJapan
1billionpeople2011
6billion
people2011
Yearly RPK growth2011 -2030
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“Global middle class” is growing at a higher rate than the world’s population growth
The “Global middle class” represents 4.9B people by 2030
Source: Kharas and Gertz, Airbus* Households with daily expenditures between $10 and $100 per person (at PPP)
Millions of people
664 703 680
338 333 322
525
1,740
3,228
318
473
654
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2010 2020 2030
Other
Asia-Pacific
North America
Europe
% of world population
1,845
27%6,900
3,249
43%7,600
4,884
59%8,300 World population
X 2
X 6
New York, November-December 2011Credit Suisse Aerospace and Defense Conference - Airbus Commercial update
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2010 cities with more than 10,000 daily long-haul passengers*
39 cities in the world handle more than10,000 long haul passengers per day, …
New York, November-December 2011Credit Suisse Aerospace and Defense Conference - Airbus Commercial update
Source: IATA PaxIS, OAG. Airbus GMF* Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic
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2030 cities with more than 10,000 daily long-haul passengers*
… and in 20 years, this will become nearly 90 cities
New York, November-December 2011Credit Suisse Aerospace and Defense Conference - Airbus Commercial update
Source: IATA PaxIS, OAG. Airbus GMF* Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Page 33
0
150000
300000
450000
Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11
A380 world fleet operations
Over 16 million passengers have enjoyed the A380 experience
(as of 1st October 2011)Revenue flight hours
New York, November-December 2011Credit Suisse Aerospace and Defense Conference - Airbus Commercial update
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Qantas
Hong Kong
Los Angeles
Auckland
Johannesburg
Jeddah
Manchester
EmiratesSingapore Airlines
Air FranceLufthansa
The A380 network keeps growing
New York, November-December 2011Credit Suisse Aerospace and Defense Conference - Airbus Commercial update
63 A380s delivered, 46 routes, 26 destinations7 operators
Additional airline-announced routes for 2011/2012 shown dottedTo 24th November 2011
MontrealParis
Sydney
Melbourne
Singapore
Washington DCNew York
Korean Air
Bangkok
SeoulSan Francisco
MiamiShanghai
Tokyo
China Southern
London
Kuala Lumpur
Dubai
BeijingTorontoZurichRome
FrankfurtMunich
Guangzhou
1418116851
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Page 35
Los Angeles
San Francisco
MontrealNew York
Washington DC
Miami
CDG-SFO
FRA-SFO
NRT-LAX
CDG-YUL
CDG-IAD
FRA-MIA
The A380 expands operations in North America
A380 – making headlines8 new routes to U.S. and Canada in 2011
ICN-LAX
ICN-JFK
New York, November-December 2011Credit Suisse Aerospace and Defense Conference - Airbus Commercial update
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Market validation
Data to 24th November 2011
All 3 alliances represented
243 firm orders from 18 Customers
17 A38010 A380
12 A380
19 A380
1 A380
12 A380
2 A380
6 A380
6 A380
5 A380
6 A38010 A380
90 A380
10 A380
20 A380
5 A380
6 A380
6 A380
New York, November-December 2011Credit Suisse Aerospace and Defense Conference - Airbus Commercial update
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A330 – A350XWB: Complimentary twins
New York, November-December 2011Credit Suisse Aerospace and Defense Conference - Airbus Commercial update
An A330 takes off or lands every 28 seconds of every day
To 24th November 2011
A330: 1 184 firm orders360 order backlog
84 customers
A350XWB: 567 firm orders35 customers
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Airbus wide-body aircraft Families are complementary
Complete fleet solutions,matching network requirements today and tomorrow
Seats
Range
A330-200
A350-800
A350-1000
A350-900
A330-300
New York, November-December 2011Credit Suisse Aerospace and Defense Conference - Airbus Commercial update
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A350 XWB programme planning
• Decision to privilege Maturity over Schedule has led to a new programme schedule
• FAL start: Q1 2012 with static specimen
• A350-900 First Flight: First half 2013
• A350-900 Entry into Service: First half 2014
New York, November-December 2011Credit Suisse Aerospace and Defense Conference - Airbus Commercial update
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Unrivalled A350-1000 performance
New York, November-December 2011Credit Suisse Aerospace and Defense Conference - Airbus Commercial update
A350-1000 consistently more capable than 777-300ER
Typical 3-class configurations and flight profile
Payload (kg)
Range with maximum passengers and baggage
Range (nm)
600 nm more range
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000
A350-1000 current definition777-300ER
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A350-1000: Unrivalled 25% lower fuel burn
New York, November-December 2011Credit Suisse Aerospace and Defense Conference - Airbus Commercial update
The A350-1000 provides a step change in efficiency
6,500 nm mission, 350 passengers
+ 40T MTOW
777-300ER requires +40t higher MTOW(+20 t. Fuel burnt + 20 t. Structure)
A350-1000 is unbeatable
DubaiNew York
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The best keeps getting better
New York, November-December 2011Credit Suisse Aerospace and Defense Conference - Airbus Commercial update
An A320 takes off or lands every 2.5 seconds of every dayOver 100 million flight hours, 99.7% dispatch reliability
To 24th November 2011
8 314 firm orders4 892 deliveries3 422 order backlog
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Well-defined Airbus single-aisle product strategy
New York, November-December 2011Credit Suisse Aerospace and Defense Conference - Airbus Commercial update
Building on proven values
2012
Efficiency
Today 2015
Sharklets
A320neo
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A320 Family new engine option
A real step in efficiency:15% less fuel burn 15% less CO2 emissions15% more range
While maintaining the Family values:95% airframe commonalityMinimum change, maximum commonalityMaturity from EIS with low industrial/technical risk
New York, November-December 2011Credit Suisse Aerospace and Defense Conference - Airbus Commercial update
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A320neo worldwide success
A320 Family is the leader in all market segments
1268 firm orders + 182 firm commitmentsTo 24th November 2011
30
10036 80
6040
45
33
2220
30
30
150
20072
806
30
101450 orders and commitments
from 26 customers
130
8
78
30
50
5030
New York, November-December 2011Credit Suisse Aerospace and Defense Conference - Airbus Commercial update
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Original 737
Original 737 design with low bypass engine & minimum ground heightNow compromised by ground clearance
Fan diameter 54”
737 PW JT8D
New York, November-December 2011Credit Suisse Aerospace and Defense Conference - Airbus Commercial update
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Increasing fan diameter continues to drive efficiency
737MAX inherits 1960s legacy constraintswith A320neo increasing fuel burn advantage
737MAX Leap-1B
A320neoLeap-1A26 / PW1127G
Fan diameter ⇒ 68”= 24% more area
Fan diameter ⇒ 78 to 81”= 32% - 42% more area
New York, November-December 2011Credit Suisse Aerospace and Defense Conference - Airbus Commercial update
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
By-pass ratio is growing
By-pass ratio is a key driver for fuel efficiency
By-pass ratio
737 ‘Classic’
4.9-5
A3205.4-6767
4.9-5.3 A3305.3 737NG
5.1-5.4
7879.1-9.2
A350 XWB11
CSeries12 A320neo
11-12
737 MAX7.5-8.5
Fuel efficiencyEmissionsNoise
Fuel efficiencyEmissionsNoise
777-300ER7.2 .
New York, November-December 2011Credit Suisse Aerospace and Defense Conference - Airbus Commercial update
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A320neo fuel burn savings rationale800nm sector
Thanks to Sharklets A320neo delivers full SFC benefit
Nominal performance Standard profile and weights*fan area LEAP-X1A versus CFM56-5BDrawings not made to scale
EngineSFC -15.3 %
+1%
Reference A320 CFM
Fuel Burnsavings %
Improved core
~7%
+32% more fan area*
~7%
Powerplant integration ~1%Sharklets -2.4%
Example of A320neo LEAP-X versus A320 CFM56
- Extra MWE < 2t - Drag+2.7%
-15.0% A320neo versus A320
New York, November-December 2011Credit Suisse Aerospace and Defense Conference - Airbus Commercial update
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737max fuel burn savings rationale800nm sector
737 constrains limit the benefits from new engine
*with winglets and 7BE improvement** fan area LEAP-1B versus CFM56-7BDrawings not made to scale
+1%Fuel Burnsavings %
Example of 737max vs 737NG*
Improved core
~6%
Reference 737NG*
+24% more fan area**
~3.5%
Powerplant integration ~0.5%
EngineSFC -10 %
-Extra MWE >2t -Drag~2.5%
aero improvements -0.5%
-8% 737MAX versus 737NG*
New York, November-December 2011Credit Suisse Aerospace and Defense Conference - Airbus Commercial update
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737-900ER A321737-800W A320737-700W A319
51
Today’s A320 Family
*2011 -7BE improvement and aero clean up credited to Boeing800 nm sector
Fuel burn per seat
124 seats 124 seats 157 seats 150 seats 173 seats 185 seats
New York, November-December 2011Credit Suisse Aerospace and Defense Conference - Airbus Commercial update
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737-900ER A321737-800W A320737-700W A319
52
A320 Family sharklets will improve efficiency
*2011 -7BE improvement and aero clean up credited to Boeing800 nm sector
Fuel burn per seat
Sharklet124 seats 124 seats
Sharklet157 seats 150 seats
Sharklet173 seats 185 seats
New York, November-December 2011Credit Suisse Aerospace and Defense Conference - Airbus Commercial update
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737-900ER A321neo737-700W A319neo 737-800W A320neo
53
A320neo: Double digit reduction
A real step change in efficiency
*2011 -7BE improvement and aero clean up credited to Boeing800 nm sector
Fuel burn per seat
124 seats 124 seats 157 seats 150 seats 173 seats 185 seats
New York, November-December 2011Credit Suisse Aerospace and Defense Conference - Airbus Commercial update
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737-9 MAX A321neo737-7 MAX A319neo 737-8 MAX A320neo
54
A320neo: The optimised aircraft
A320neo Family increases the competitive advantage
800 nm sector
Fuel burn per seat
124 seats 124 seats 157 seats 150 seats 173 seats 185 seats
New York, November-December 2011Credit Suisse Aerospace and Defense Conference - Airbus Commercial update
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A320/A320neo market potentiel
New York, November-December 2011Credit Suisse Aerospace and Defense Conference - Airbus Commercial update
Open demand for 14,800 aircraft by 2030
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Single-aisle aircraft in-service
Currently in-service
Backlog
Open Demand
14,800aircraft
4,400aircraft
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Fuel efficient Airbus aircraft Families
Fuel efficient Airbus products will sustain future growth, curb fuel demand
New York, November-December 2011Credit Suisse Aerospace and Defense Conference - Airbus Commercial update