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2008-09-16 10:09:59
New t heory pred ic ts the la rgest ozone ho le over Antarc t ica w i l l occur
th i s mon th
WATERLOO, Ont. (Tuesday, Sept. 16, 2008) -- A University of Waterloo
scientist says that cosmic rays are a key cause for expanding the hole in the
ozone layer over the South Pole -- and predicts the largest ozone hole will occur
in one or two weeks.
Qing-Bin Lu, a professor of physics and astronomy who studies ozone depletion,
said that it was generally accepted for more than two decades that the Earth's
ozone layer is depleted by chlorine atoms produced by sunlight-induced
destruction of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in the atmosphere. But more and more
evidence now points to a new theory that the cosmic rays (energy particles
that originate in space) play a major role.
The ozone layer is a layer in Earth's atmosphere that contains high
concentrations of ozone. It absorbs almost all of the sun's high-frequency
ultraviolet light, which is potentially damaging to life on Earth and causes
diseases such as skin cancer and cataracts. The Antarctic ozone hole can belarger than the size of North America.
Lu said that data from several sources, including NASA satellites, show a strong
correlation between cosmic ray intensity and ozone depletion. Lab
measurements demonstrate a mechanism by which cosmic rays cause drastic
reactions of ozone-depleting chlorine inside polar clouds.
Satellite data in the period of 1980-2007, covering two full 11-year solar cycles,
demonstrate the significant correlation between cosmic rays and ozone
depletion.
"This finding, combined with laboratory measurements, provides strong evidence
of the role of cosmic-ray driven reactions in causing the ozone hole and resolves
the mystery why a large discrepancy between the sunlight-related
photochemical model and the observed ozone depletion exists," Lu said.
For example, the most recent scientific assessments of ozone depletion by theWorld Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment
Programme, which use photochemical models, predict ozone will increase by one
to 2.5 per cent between 2000 and 2020 and Antarctic springtime ozone is
projected to increase by five to 10 per cent between 2000 and 2020.
In sharp contrast, Lu said his study predicts the severest ozone loss - - resulting
in the largest ozone hole - - will occur over the South Pole this month. The study
also predicts another large hole will probably occur around 2019.
Resources
Contacts:
Editors: A NASA image of
the ozone hole is available
from
Qing-Bin Lu, professor of
physics and astronomy,
519-888-4567 ext.
33503 or
John Morris, UW media
relations, 519-888-4435 or
UW news release no. 62
2008-09-16 10:09:59
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