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New York State Energy Planning Board
New York State Transmission and Distribution System Reliability Study
Patrick Curran, NYISO
Erin Hogan, NYSERDA
Michael Worden, DPS
June 4, 2012
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2
Introduction and Overview
Transmission System Reliability
Distribution Reliability
Investment and Expenditures
Environmental Regulations
T&D Reliability Impacts from Policy
Future T&D Reliability Issues
Key Findings and Recommendations
T&D Reliability Study Highlights
2
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Overview of The Electric System
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4
Fundamental Reliability Principle
4
Generation
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5
New York State Generation
5 Source: NYISO, 2012
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6
New York State High Voltage Transmission
6 Source: NYISO, 2012
HVDC
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New York Transmission Owner Service Areas
7 Source: DPS, 2012
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Historical Load Growth By Aggregated Wholesale Energy Load Zone
8
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
MW
H
Zones A-E Zones F-I Zones J-K
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Transmission System Reliability
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10
Reliability Oversight
10
FERC
NYISO Market
Participants Transmission
Owners
NPCC
NYSRC PSC
NERC
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NERC Interconnections
11 Source: NERC, 2012
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Planning Metrics
– Resource Adequacy
• Loss of Load Expectation
• 1 in 10 years
– System Security Analysis or Operation Reliability
• N-1; N-1-1
Operations Metrics
– Uncontrolled Loss of Load Event
Transmission Reliability Metrics
12
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Transmission System Planning
NYISO – Area Transmission Review
– Comprehensive System Planning Process • Local Transmission Planning Process
• Reliability Needs Assessment
• Comprehensive Reliability Plan
• Congestion Assessment and Resource Integration Study
Regional and Interregional – EIPC
– Northeast Coordinated Plan
– Eastern Interconnection Assessment Group
– NPCC Overall Transmission Assessment
– NERC 2011 Long-Term Reliability Assessment
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Transmission System Operations
Seasonal Operating Studies – Assesses transfer limits on key interface
Day Ahead Operating Plan – Security Constrained Unit Commitment
Real Time Operations – Real Time Commitment and Dispatch
System Operating States – Normal
– Warning
– Alert
– Major Emergency
– Restoration
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NERC
– 2011 Long-Term Reliability Assessment
– 2011 Risk Assessment of Reliability Performance Report
2010 Comprehensive Reliability Plan
– No reliability violations identified in base case
– Risks identified in sensitivities
State Transmission Assessment and Reliability Study
– Aging infrastructure
– Opportunities to increase transfer capacity
Reliability Issues Identified in Planning Studies
15
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New York State Transmission Assessment and Reliability Study
16 Source: STARS, 2012
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Distribution System Reliability
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Annual Reliability Report
Reliability Improvements
Power Quality Issues
Electric Utility Emergency Plans
Storm Mitigation
Distribution Reliability
18
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Distribution Reliability Metrics
19
Customer Average Interruption Duration Index
(CAIDI)
Number of Customer Hours/ Number of Customers Affected
System Average Interruption Frequency Index
(SAIFI)
Number of Customer Affected/Number of Customers Served
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Distribution Performance
20
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
NYS CAIDI For Radial and Network
Radial With Storms Radial W/O Storms Network
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
NYS SAIFI For Radial and Network
Radial With Storms Radial W/O Storms Network
Draft Draft
Note: 2011 Values are draft, does not include LIPA outage data from Hurricane Irene
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Causes of Distribution Interruptions
21
Tree 27%
Overload 3%
Error 0%
Equipment 40%
Accident 13%
Prearranged
14%
Cust Equip
1%
Lightning 5%
Unknown 8%
Radial Interruptions
Services 81%
Mains 7%
Equipment 7%
Accident 1%
Prearranged 0%
Cust Equip
4%
Network Interruptions
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Number of Customer-Hour Interruptions
22
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Major Storm Related Outages Draft
Note: 2011 Values are draft, does not include LIPA outage data from Hurricane Irene
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Investment and Expenditures
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Utility Capital Expenditure ($000s)
24
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
Actual
Plan
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25
Electric O&M Expenses ($000s)
25
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Trans
Dist
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Environmental Regulations
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Environmental Regulations
Existing Rules
– NOx RACT Rule
– Best Available Retrofit Technology (BART) Rule
– Utility MACT Rule
– Best Technology Available (BTA) Policy
New and Future Rules
– Cross-State Air Pollution Rule
– Cooling Water Intake Structures
– Coal Combustion Residuals
– CO2 Emission Allowance
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Impacts to Reliability
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Reliability Impacts From Policies
Load – Energy Efficiency
– Large Load Growth
– Other Load Varying Mechanisms
Generation – Renewable Portfolio Standard
– Distributed Generation
Transmission & Distribution – Bulk Electric System Definition
– Performance Rate Making, Multi-Year Rate Agreements, and other Departures from Traditional Regulatory Mechanisms
Regulatory – Corporate Reorganization of Electric Utilities
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Generation
• Retirements •Environmental
Initiatives
•Nuclear Relicensing
•Market Conditions
• Results • Fuel Mix
Issues/Diversity of Supply
Load
• Variations
30
Possible Future Reliability Issues
30
• Smart Grid and Emerging Technologies
•Electric Vehicles
• Results •Transition for both
technology & process poses challenges
• Implemented correctly could optimize asset utilization & operational efficiency
External Forces
• Sources • Security Threats
•Geomagnetic Disturbances
•Aging Workforce
• Issues •Risks known and
estimated
•Mitigation measures developed
•Effectiveness unknown
T&D
• Aging Infrastructure •2,300 miles over next
10 yrs nearing design life
•1,200 additional miles in next 10-20 years
• Results • Increases maintenance
and downtime
• Increases risk from unavailability
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Preliminary Findings and Recommendations
As assessed using existing metrics, the electric system generally appears to be reliable
Allow system planners and operators flexibility when developing policies
Support cost-effective replacement of aging infrastructure
Support diverse mix of electric generation fuel sources
Monitor gas/electric interdependence
Encourage workforce development
Support distributed generation technologies
Improve storm mitigation, restoration, and communication
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Questions?