![Page 1: Nanotechnology Supply Chains: A Framework for their ... › SNO2015 › images › Supply Chains Nov 9 2015.pdf · Nanotechnology supply chain as building block for a systemwide representation](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081407/5f1f93952850c9281b675940/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Nanotechnology Supply Chains: A Framework for Evaluating Their
Global Implications
Faye Duchin Professor of Economics
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Troy, NY
Fourth Annual Sustainable Nanotechnology Conference, November 10, 2015, Portland, OR
![Page 2: Nanotechnology Supply Chains: A Framework for their ... › SNO2015 › images › Supply Chains Nov 9 2015.pdf · Nanotechnology supply chain as building block for a systemwide representation](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081407/5f1f93952850c9281b675940/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Initiatives of the United Nations System
• Brundtland Report, Our Common Future, 1987: “Sustainable Development”
• Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): 2015 – 2030 (17 goals)
1 F. Duchin SNO Conference
![Page 3: Nanotechnology Supply Chains: A Framework for their ... › SNO2015 › images › Supply Chains Nov 9 2015.pdf · Nanotechnology supply chain as building block for a systemwide representation](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081407/5f1f93952850c9281b675940/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
• What I do: Scenario analysis
• Relation to the “nanotechnology supply chain”
• Life cycle assessment and input-output economic models
• Nanomaterial taxonomy
• Prototype designs for integrated water and wastewater treatment systems
F. Duchin SNO Conference 2
Overview of presentation
![Page 4: Nanotechnology Supply Chains: A Framework for their ... › SNO2015 › images › Supply Chains Nov 9 2015.pdf · Nanotechnology supply chain as building block for a systemwide representation](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081407/5f1f93952850c9281b675940/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Scenario analysis
• Model and database of world economy
– Consumption, production, trade
• Several-decade timeframe
• Assumptions about
– Demographics
– Material standard of living
– Technological choices
– Availability of ecosystem goods and services
3 F. Duchin SNO Conference
![Page 5: Nanotechnology Supply Chains: A Framework for their ... › SNO2015 › images › Supply Chains Nov 9 2015.pdf · Nanotechnology supply chain as building block for a systemwide representation](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081407/5f1f93952850c9281b675940/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Will we be able to feed 10B people in 2050?
• Baseline assumptions
• Screened alternative scenarios for feasible solutions with low forest clearing and low rise in food prices.
Springer, N. and F. Duchin, 2014. Feeding Nine Billion People Sustainably: Conserving Land and Water through Shifting Diets and Changes in Technologies, ES&T, 48(8): 4444–4451.
F. Duchin SNO Conference 4
![Page 6: Nanotechnology Supply Chains: A Framework for their ... › SNO2015 › images › Supply Chains Nov 9 2015.pdf · Nanotechnology supply chain as building block for a systemwide representation](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081407/5f1f93952850c9281b675940/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Assumptions: Nanomaterial production technologies, penetration
• Resource and energy requirements • Money costs and prices • International division of labor • International distribution of income
Explore alternative scenarios to achieve specific objectives.
5 F. Duchin SNO Conference
![Page 7: Nanotechnology Supply Chains: A Framework for their ... › SNO2015 › images › Supply Chains Nov 9 2015.pdf · Nanotechnology supply chain as building block for a systemwide representation](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081407/5f1f93952850c9281b675940/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
“Nanotechnology supply chain” as building block for a systemwide representation
NM nanomaterials
NIP nano- Intermediate products
NFP final products with embodied nanomaterials
6 F. Duchin SNO Conference
![Page 8: Nanotechnology Supply Chains: A Framework for their ... › SNO2015 › images › Supply Chains Nov 9 2015.pdf · Nanotechnology supply chain as building block for a systemwide representation](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081407/5f1f93952850c9281b675940/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Generalize to account for: • Conventional resources and products
• Network, not a chain
• Technologies employed
• Geographies of production, consumption
• Association with multiple attributes – Physical quantities
– Money values (dual of material flows)
– Health, safety and environmental implications
7
NM NIP NFP
F. Duchin SNO Conference
![Page 9: Nanotechnology Supply Chains: A Framework for their ... › SNO2015 › images › Supply Chains Nov 9 2015.pdf · Nanotechnology supply chain as building block for a systemwide representation](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081407/5f1f93952850c9281b675940/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
u2
u3
e21
e12
e23
e32
e13
e31
Simplified supply network for a 3-region economy
Region 1
Final Demand
u1
φ1
φ2
φ3
Region 2
Final Demand
Region 3
Final Demand
Region 1 Sectors
Region 3 Sectors
Region 2 Sectors
Region 1 Resources
Region 3 Resources
Region 2 Resources
8 F. Duchin SNO Conference
![Page 10: Nanotechnology Supply Chains: A Framework for their ... › SNO2015 › images › Supply Chains Nov 9 2015.pdf · Nanotechnology supply chain as building block for a systemwide representation](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081407/5f1f93952850c9281b675940/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Network-based framework for analyzing alternative scenarios in the global economy requires:
• Database
• Models
• Network analysis applied to model outcomes
9 F. Duchin SNO Conference
![Page 11: Nanotechnology Supply Chains: A Framework for their ... › SNO2015 › images › Supply Chains Nov 9 2015.pdf · Nanotechnology supply chain as building block for a systemwide representation](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081407/5f1f93952850c9281b675940/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Nano-database does not exist, but important components are available:
• Industrial ecology and Life-Cycle Assessment (LCA)
• Input-output economics and meso-level databases and models
• 20 years experience integrating LCA and input-output models
• Deeper collaboration between LCA and IO
10 F. Duchin SNO Conference
![Page 12: Nanotechnology Supply Chains: A Framework for their ... › SNO2015 › images › Supply Chains Nov 9 2015.pdf · Nanotechnology supply chain as building block for a systemwide representation](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081407/5f1f93952850c9281b675940/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
World IO Databases and Models
• First world input-output database and world model 1970s (Leontief, UN)
• National IO databases compiled periodically from censuses and surveys in most countries
• Today several detailed world IO databases, family of world IO models
11 F. Duchin SNO Conference
![Page 13: Nanotechnology Supply Chains: A Framework for their ... › SNO2015 › images › Supply Chains Nov 9 2015.pdf · Nanotechnology supply chain as building block for a systemwide representation](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081407/5f1f93952850c9281b675940/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Basic IO database and model for one region
A
F
y
x = (I – A)-1y Iconic input-output model f = Fx = F(I – A)-1y associates resources (f) with final demand (y)
12 F. Duchin SNO Conference
![Page 14: Nanotechnology Supply Chains: A Framework for their ... › SNO2015 › images › Supply Chains Nov 9 2015.pdf · Nanotechnology supply chain as building block for a systemwide representation](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081407/5f1f93952850c9281b675940/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
WTM Quantity Model (primal)
i
iii xFπT
(I -A i )x ii
å = y ii
å
Fix i fi
xi ³ 0 "i
min Z =
Solves for xi, p, and ri 13 F. Duchin SNO Conference
![Page 15: Nanotechnology Supply Chains: A Framework for their ... › SNO2015 › images › Supply Chains Nov 9 2015.pdf · Nanotechnology supply chain as building block for a systemwide representation](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081407/5f1f93952850c9281b675940/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
maxW = (yiTp-
i
å fiTri )
(I-Ai )Tp £Fi
T (ri +p i ) "i
WTM Price Model (dual)
ri ³ 0 "ip ³ 0,
14 F. Duchin SNO Conference
![Page 16: Nanotechnology Supply Chains: A Framework for their ... › SNO2015 › images › Supply Chains Nov 9 2015.pdf · Nanotechnology supply chain as building block for a systemwide representation](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081407/5f1f93952850c9281b675940/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
What is needed to use this framework to analyze scenarios about the diffusion of nanotechnologies throughout the global economy?
15 F. Duchin SNO Conference
![Page 17: Nanotechnology Supply Chains: A Framework for their ... › SNO2015 › images › Supply Chains Nov 9 2015.pdf · Nanotechnology supply chain as building block for a systemwide representation](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081407/5f1f93952850c9281b675940/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Analytic requirement: nanotechnology taxonomy
• Expand Standard Industrial Classifications to distinguish nanomaterials as products
• Quantify their production technologies (inputs per unit of output, as in LCA)
• Distinguish conventional primary resource inputs for nanomaterial production
16 F. Duchin SNO Conference
![Page 18: Nanotechnology Supply Chains: A Framework for their ... › SNO2015 › images › Supply Chains Nov 9 2015.pdf · Nanotechnology supply chain as building block for a systemwide representation](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081407/5f1f93952850c9281b675940/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Taxonomies and data development • Service sectors, automation in 1970s
• “Environmentally-extended” input-output databases in 1990s
• World input-output databases in 2000s
17 F. Duchin SNO Conference
![Page 19: Nanotechnology Supply Chains: A Framework for their ... › SNO2015 › images › Supply Chains Nov 9 2015.pdf · Nanotechnology supply chain as building block for a systemwide representation](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081407/5f1f93952850c9281b675940/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Baseline nanotech scenario outcomes
• Global resource and energy requirements
• Contrast conventional materials and products
• Track products upstream to embodied inputs by source region (e.g., in case of illness outbreak)
• Track nanomaterials produced in selected regions downstream to embodiment in final goods.
18 F. Duchin SNO Conference
![Page 20: Nanotechnology Supply Chains: A Framework for their ... › SNO2015 › images › Supply Chains Nov 9 2015.pdf · Nanotechnology supply chain as building block for a systemwide representation](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081407/5f1f93952850c9281b675940/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Sustainable Development Goal #6: Assuring universal access to safe drinking water and “improved sanitation services.”
F. Duchin SNO Conference 19
![Page 21: Nanotechnology Supply Chains: A Framework for their ... › SNO2015 › images › Supply Chains Nov 9 2015.pdf · Nanotechnology supply chain as building block for a systemwide representation](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081407/5f1f93952850c9281b675940/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
I. Cazcarro, C. Lopez-Morales, and F. Duchin, “Global Economic Costs of the Need to Treat Polluted Water”
20
• Costs greater by > 1 trillion USD than if water endowments were maintained at higher quality
• Costs increase steeply with further degradation
What about using nanotechnology-based water and wastewater treatment systems?
F. Duchin SNO Conference
![Page 22: Nanotechnology Supply Chains: A Framework for their ... › SNO2015 › images › Supply Chains Nov 9 2015.pdf · Nanotechnology supply chain as building block for a systemwide representation](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081407/5f1f93952850c9281b675940/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
My recommendation: Complement the
global SDG rollout with…
Global Design Prototypes for Integrated Systems for Water and Wastewater Treatment
• Global collaborative effort to produce designs for distinct kinds of settings
• Parallel research agenda on associated risks
• Singapore water management: example of strategic, whole-system perspective guiding design AND implementation
21 F. Duchin SNO Conference
![Page 23: Nanotechnology Supply Chains: A Framework for their ... › SNO2015 › images › Supply Chains Nov 9 2015.pdf · Nanotechnology supply chain as building block for a systemwide representation](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081407/5f1f93952850c9281b675940/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Key features
• Civil society initiative, mutually reinforcing UN SDGs
• Focus on a concrete and strategic application
• Prioritize societal concerns and goals and new public-private business models
• Evaluate options with integrated LCA/Input-Output models.
***
22 F. Duchin SNO Conference