Download - my Chinese lectures on Silicon Valley
The Greatest Creation of Wealth
in the History of the World
piero scaruffi
Beijing, China
September 2014
Sections
1. History of Silicon Valley
2. Trends
3. The Best Kept Secret in Silicon
Valley 2
1. History of Silicon Valley
3
World War I
• The Navy and amateurs turn the Bay Area
into a hotbed of radio engineering
4
Meanwhile elsewhere…
• The automated office:
– typewriters (a field dominated by
Remington Rand),
– adding machines (a field dominated by
Burroughs),
– tabulating machines (a field dominated by
IBM)
– cash registers (a field dominated by NCR)
• Midwest and East Coast industries dominate
office automation 5
World War II and Cold War
• Fred Terman in charge of electronic
warfare
• Fred Terman's students at Stanford:
HP, Varian,…
• Stanford Industrial Park (1951)
• Main industry in Silicon Valley:
Defense
6
Meanwhile (computers)
• Main centers for research on electronic computing:
– Boston (Harvard and MIT),
– Philadelphia (Moore School of Electrical Engineering, BRL),
– New Jersey (Bell Labs, Princeton, RCA Labs),
– New York (Columbia and IBM)
• First commercial computers: large office-automation players (Remington Rand, IBM, NCR, Burroughs)
• AT&T Bell Labs’ transistor (1949) 7
8
Silicon Valley in 1950
Semiconductors in the Bay Area
• Shockley Semiconductor Lab (1956)
• Fairchild Semiconductors (1957),
the first venture-funded "start-up"
company of the Bay Area: Robert
Noyce, Gordon Moore, Jean Hoerni,
etc
• Fairchild moves from germanium to
silicon
• The semiconductor industry does
not require huge capital investment
9
Integrated Circuits
• 1958: Jack Kilby at Texas Instruments invents the integrated circuit
• Exponential growth in chip density
• Gordon Moore’s law (1965): the processing power of computers will double every 12 (18) months
10
Integrated Circuits
11 dsprelated.com/blogimages/RickLyons
Integrated Circuits
• A self-sustaining manufacturing community that
mixes Darwinian competition/selection with
symbiotic cooperation
• The system exhibits a form of collective learning
• Note: Texas Instruments in Texas, Motorola in
Arizona and RCA/GE on the East Coast do not
spawn a similar genealogical tree of
semiconductor startups
12
Integrated Circuits
• Role of the government
– The military serves as both a munificent
investor that did not expect a return (and not
even co-ownership) and as an inexpensive
testbed
– NASA's Apollo mission to send a man to the
Moon builds the Apollo Guidance Computer
(1961-64), the first computer to use integrated
circuits
13
Dynamic Memory
• Advanced Memory Systems (1968), Intel (1968)
and Four Phase (1969): semiconductor computer
memories instead of magnetic core memories
• Before the DRAM: the semiconductor firms make
money by building custom-designed integrated
circuits (small market but lucrative)
• The DRAM: a commodity sold in large numbers
at a low price
• Constant downward pressure on prices 14
High-tech Creativity
• SRI
– Doug Engelbart’s NLS (1968): a graphical user interface and a hypertext system running on the first computer equipped with a mouse and connected to a remote computer (9 Dec 1968)
– An implementation of Vannevar Bush's article "As We May Think“ (1945)
– Engelbart’s research program: “Augmenting Human Intellect” (not Artificial Intelligence, but augmented intelligence)
– "Shakey the Robot“ (1969) 15
High-tech Creativity
• Xerox PARC (1970) :
– Alan Kay’s Dynabook and Smalltalk
– Ivan Sutherland (University of Utah College of Engineering + Seymour Papert (MIT A.I. Lab)
– Not faster computation but better interaction
– Casual, informal and egalitarian workplace
16
High-tech Creativity
• Computer games
– Nolan Bushnell’s "Computer
Space“ (1971), the world's
first coin-operated
videogame (a free-standing
terminal powered by a
computer)
– Atari’s “Pong“ (1972)
17
Meanwhile elsewhere… • Arpanet (1969): Utah, UCLA, SRI, UCSB but run
by BBN (Boston)
• Unix (1971) – from Bell Labs (New Jersey)
• “The Unbundling” by IBM (1969) creates the
software industry
• Minicomputers (Digital Equipment, 1968) -
Boston
• Largest computer companies in the USA: IBM +
BUNCH (Burroughs, UNIVAC, NCR, CDC, &
Honeywell) – none of them in California 18
The Microprocessor
• Four Phase Systems’ AL1 (1970)
• Intel’s 4404 (1971), as powerful as the
ENIAC, but millions of times smaller
and ten thousand times cheaper
• Bill Pentz at California State University
in Sacramento proves that a
microprocessor can be used to build a
computer (1972)
19
The Home Computer • "Radio Electronics", "QST" and
"Popular Electronics" publicize the microprocessor among hobbyists
• Kits by mail-order for hobbyists to build machines at home: Scelbi (1974), …, Altair 8800 (1974)
• The microprocessor reaches a wider audience than its inventors intended to reach thanks to the magazines
• The most creative and visionary users are not working in corporations but at home
• The Homebrew Computer Club (1975) 20
The Home Computer
• IBM, the "BUNCH“ and DEC had the know-how, the brains and the factories to produce desktop computers for the home market. They did not do it.
• The market for home computers is largely created by a grassroots movement of hobbyists who work outside the big bureaucracies of corporations, academia and government.
• They create their own community (via magazines, stores and clubs)
• Journalists and store owners are the real visionaries
21
The Home Computer
• Obstacle to widespread diffusion: the home
computer is expensive (because the Intel
microprocessor is expensive) and pretty
useless (because it has no software)
22
Software: Databases
• Leadership in database technology: IBM’s
IMS
• IBM's Almaden Research Center starts the
“relational” database management system
System R (1973)
• Berkeley’s Ingres (1973)
23
The GUI • Leadership in user interface: IBM’s form-driven
3270 terminal to connect to mainframes
• Xerox PARC unveils the Alto, the first
workstation with a mouse and a Graphical User
Interface (1973)
24
The Apple Vision
• Apple I vision (1976):
– A computer without a programming language is an oxymoron
– A real programming language requires DRAM
– Enabling technology: the 4K DRAM, just introduced in 1974, much cheaper than the static RAM of the Altair
– Roberts had basically just dressed up a microprocessor to create his Altair. Wozniak dresses up a memory chip to create the Apple I
– Wozniak also writes the BASIC interpreter
– Target user: the hobbyist 25
The Apple Vision • Apple II vision (1977):
– Fully assembled, with a monitor
and a keyboard, requiring almost
no technical expertise
– The look and feel of a home
appliance
– The first affordable floppy-disk
drive for personal computers,
which replaces the cassette as the
main data storage
26
A New Office Tool
• VisiCalc (1979), the first spreadsheet program for
personal computers for the Apple II
• Apple’s IPO (1980) raises a record $1.3 billion
• Visicalc ported to the Tandy TRS-80, Commodore
PET and the Atari 800, the first major application
that is not tied to a computer
• Lesson learned: the value of software
• Venture capitalists move to Menlo Park
27
A New Office Tool
28
http://arstechnica.com
The Microprocessor Wars/ II
• Intel assigns the task of designing the 8086
(1978) to a software engineer
• 14 million microprocessors are sold in 1978
but only 200,000 personal computers are
manufactured
29
Communications
• 3Com (1979): Ethernet for personal
computers
• Ungermann-Bass (1979): Ethernet-based
local-area networks
30
The GUI/II
• Exodus of brains from Xerox
PARC towards Silicon Valley
companies (1977)
• Xerox 8010 Star Information
System (1981) that integrates a
mouse, a GUI, a laser printer,
an Ethernet card, an object-
oriented environment
(Smalltalk) and word-
processing and publishing
software 31
BSD
• Berkeley Software Distribution (1977) spreads in universities
• The world's most portable operating system
• Onyx (1980), Apollo (1980), SUN (1981), Silicon Graphics (1982): a microcomputer running UNIX, a cheaper alternative to the PDP-11
• DARPA chooses Unix for the Arpanet (1980)
32
BSD
• A technology ignored by the big computer
manufacturers and left in the hands of a
community of eccentric independents
• Dynamics that mirrors the dynamics of the
computer hobbyists who have invented the
personal computer
• Universities serve as community
aggregators more than magazines, clubs or
stores 33
Biotech
• Genentech (1976) to genetically engineer new
pharmaceutical drugs
• Applied Biosystems (1979) to build biotech
instrumentation (protein sequencer, DNA
synthesizer)
• The US Supreme Court rules that biological
materials (as in "life forms") can be patented
(1980)
• Calgene (1980), Chiron (1981), …
• Cetus’ IPO (1981) raises a record $108 million 34
Meanwhile elsewhere… • The IBM PC (1981), a personal computer
from off-the-shelf, widely available
components based on the Intel 8088
microprocessor and running an operating
system by Microsoft (derived from Unix)
• The “open” model of the PC creates an
industry of "clones" (Compaq, Olivetti) and
an industry of independent software
companies
35
Meanwhile elsewhere…
• Commodore 64 (1982) is sold in retail stores
instead of electronics stores
• Osborne 1 (1981), a portable computer
36
http://arstechnica.com
The Apple Vision
• Apple Lisa (1983), the first
personal computer with the GUI
pioneered by the Xerox Alto
• Apple’s added value: it looks cool
• Apple’s model: a proprietary Apple
operating system
37
Software
• Sales of personal computers skyrocket because they have become useful: Apple thanks to office programs (Visicalc, Context MBA) and the PC thanks to the DOS-compatible applications (Lotus 1-2-3, dBase ($700)
38
Software
• Activision (1979), Electronic Arts (1982): computer games
• Autodesk (1981): CAD
• Adobe (1982): desktop publishing
• Symantec (1982), Borland (1983): tools for software developers
39
Software
• 1950s-1970s: the hardware represents most
of the cost of a computer
• 1980s: the falling prices of hardware
components enables ever more
sophisticated software applications and
triggers a growing demand for them; and
the need to run more sophisticated
applications motivates the hardware
industry to produce more powerful chips 40
The Internet
• Just like the personal computer and the Unix, the
Internet too is largely shaped by a community of
eccentric independents
• Decentralized model that involves the very users
of the Internet to submit proposals for future
directions
• A government-mandated grass-roots movement
• The consumer is the producer
• E-mail itself is a user invention, never planned by
the Arpanet's bureaucracy 41
The Internet
• The Arpanet as a project in progress, a concept that is more likely to be accepted in military projects than in commercial product development
• The Arpanet changes mission over time, transforming from a military project to survive a nuclear attack into a system for interpersonal communication and knowledge sharing
42
The Semiconductor Wars • Japanese firms introduce low-cost 256K DRAM
chips (1984) and gain 70% of the market (1985)
43
Outsourcing the Fab
• 1985: The government of Taiwan hires Morris Chang who promotes the outsourcing of semiconductor manufacturing by US companies to Taiwan
• Whenever a Silicon Valley manufacturer outsources a project to a Taiwanese fab, it directly improves the Taiwanese plant both by injecting capital and by the project's new requirements and therefore does a favor to its own competitors who can use the same factory
44
The PC goes corporate
45
http://arstechnica.com
The Peacetime Dividend
• End of the Cold War (1991): Silicon Valley does
not depend anymore on the military industry
• The main change: need to generate a profit as
quickly as possible (the great investor of the 1950s
and 1960s, the military, thought long-term, with
no interest in return on investment)
46
Meanwhile elsewhere…
• 1991: Tim Berners-Lee invents the
World-wide Web
• 1993: Mosaic (later renamed Netscape in
Silicon Valley)
• 1994: WebCrawler (search engine)
• 1995: The US government blesses the
commercial use of the Internet
47
The Dot Coms
• The importance of Netscape’s browser:
– Free for ordinary users
– Illiterate computer uses can browse the Web the
same way that a pro does
– The non-intuitive cluster of digital information
that has accrued on the Internet becomes
intelligible to ordinary people
– More and more people are motivated to add
content to the Web 48
The Dot Coms
• The importance of Netscape’s browser:
– The personal computer boom of the 1980s has
placed a computer in millions of households
and the browser turns them into the audience of
the Web
– The computer monopolies are forced to adopt
open standards for the Web
49
The Dot Coms
• Netscape IPO (1995)
• Yahoo (1995)
• Excite. AltaVista (1995), Hotbot (1996), Google (1998)
• Java (1995)
• WebLogic (1995), Apache (1996)
• Craigslist (1995)
• HotMail (1996)
• GeoCities (1995)
• eBay (1995)
• Netflix (1997) 50
Cloud Computing
• 1990: General Magic
• 1996: Oracle's Net Computer
• 1999: Salesforce
• 2006: Amazon's Simple Storage Service
• 2007: Google Docs
51
Hotmail’s Lesson
• Founded by hardware engineers: a user’s idea, not
a technological idea; a sturdy no-nonsense
"product“
• Advertising as a source of revenues
• Internet startups offer free services because their
real product is the user base
• The boom of the Web is not a consequence of the
Internet but of the boom in advertising: cable
television revenues stage an 82% growth rate in
1994-95 just when the Web is maturing 52
Meanwhile elsewhere…
• East Coast: Human Genome Project (1992)
• Finland: Nokia introduces the smart phone (1996)
53
The Nasdaq Crash
• Between 1998 and 1999 venture-capital
investments in Silicon Valley firms increases more
than 90%
• The Internet and Y2K booms generate a bubble
that bursts in 2000
54
The Nasdaq Crash
• Venture capital investment never went back to the
2000 high
55
The Nasdaq Crash
• Silicon Valley before the crash:
– Personal computers: HP and Apple dwarfed by
IBM, Compaq, Dell and Japanese
– Videogame consoles: Japan rules
– Semiconductors: The Far East rules
– Mobile phones: Europe rules
– Chips for mobile devices: ARM rules
– Software: Microsoft and SAP dwarf Oracle
– Dotcoms: No profits 56
Beyond the Crash
• Paypal (2000)
• Apple iPod and iTunes (2001)
• Wikipedia (2003)
• Facebook (2004)
• YouTube (2005)
• Twitter (2006)
• iPhone and Androir (2007)
57
Beyond the Crash
• Facebook (2004)
58
Beyond the Crash
• Yahoo and Google de-facto turn the Web into an
advertising tool which incidentally also contains
information
59
The Age of Uploading
• Wikipedia
• Blogs
• P2P tools
• Social networking sites
• YouTube
• Flickr
• Digital cameras and camcorders
• Smartphones
60
The Gift Economy
• The audience “gifts” content to the companies that
make money out of it
• The companies are small but handle a huge
amount of content
• The companies make money as advertising
platforms
• The audience receives a free service but also
provides a free service
61
The Demise of the Computer
• The smartphone (a computer that also does voice)
• Cloud computing (an invisible, omnipotent, virtual
computer)
• Applications are written for social networks
(Facebook apps) and smartphones (iPhone apps),
not for an operating system
62
The Great Internet Wars
• Google vs Microsoft: Microsoft owns the
operating system but Google owns the search
engine (Internet traffic)
• Google vs Facebook: vying to become the premier
advertising platform
• Apple vs Google: proprietary or open smartphones
63
Diversifying
• Tesla
64
Diversifying
• Apple iPhone (2007) and Google Android (2007)
65
Diversifying
• Biotech
66
The 2010s
67
The 2010s
68
The 2010s
69
Silicon Valley 2014
• World's #1 company in…
– Internet services: Google
– Social Media: Facebook
– Semiconductors: Intel
– Personal computers: Hewlett-Packard
– Business software: Oracle
Most valued company in the world: Apple
Location with the most venture capital: 3000 Sand Hill Rd, Menlo Park
70
71
GDP ($million):
1 USA 16,800,000
2 China 9,240,270
3 Japan 4,901,530
4 Germany 3,634,823
5 France 2,734,949
6 Britain 2,522,261
7 Brazil 2,245,673
8 Russia 2,096,777
9 Italy 2,071,307
10 India 1,876,797
11 Canada 1,825,096
12 Australia 1,560,597
13 Spain 1,358,263
14 South Korea 1,304,554
15 Mexico 1,260,915
16 Indonesia 868,346
17 Turkey 820,207
18 Netherlands 800,173
19 Saudi Arabia 745,273
20 Switzerland 650,782
21 Argentina 611,755
San Francisco Bay Area ~600,000 (8 million people)
GDP per capita ($): 1 Qatar 98,814 2 Luxembourg 78,670 San Francisco Bay Area 74,815 3 Singapore 64,584 4 Norway 54,947 5 Brunei 53,431 6 United States 53,101 (World Bank, 2013)
Nobel Prizes (2013) 1. USA 349 2. Britain 116 3. Germany 101 4. France 66 San Francisco Bay Area 42 • Sweden 30 • Russia 27 • Switzerland 26 • Canada 23 • Austria 22 • Italy 20 • Japan 19
Today
72
1950
Lessons
1. Industrial park around university (Terman's model)
2. Ecosystem of small competitors instead of dominating giant (Fairchild model)
3. Government funding for advanced technology (DARPA, NASA)
4. People buy the application, not the technology (the VisiCalc lesson)
5. Big monolithic corporate research is slower to realize the potentiality of a new technology than a distributed system of independent eccentric hobbyists (personal computers, dot coms)
73
Lessons
6. Augmented intelligence, not just automation (SRI, Xerox PARC)
7. Inventions can come from anywhere, disruptive innocation comes from disruptive societies
8. Corporate and government platforms are opportunities for new applications (Internet, Unix)
9. The business model for a new technology is never obvious (the Hotmail lesson)
10. Technology does not exist in a vacuum
74
Trends…
• … the next SMALL thing!
75
Social Media
• Facebook (1 billion users!) and Twitter: age of
social entertainment (and political activism!)
• The next step: streaming your life live to the world
(Twitch.tv)
76
Social Media
• A different use of social media: investment and
services
– Crowdsourcing
– Sharing economy (collaborative consumption
77
Citylab.com
Sharing Economy
• Collaborative consumption
• A side-effect of the financial crisis
• Enabled by social mobility, by Amazon/Yelp
customer reviews (“trust”), and by… a wasteful
society (idling capacity)!
78
Citylab.com
Sharing Economy
• Technology is changing the
future of capitalism from
competing to sharing
• “By the end of this decade,
power and influence will shift
largely to those people with the
best reputations and trust
networks, from people with
money and nominal power…
giving a voice to what we once
called "the silent majority."
79
Craig Newmark
Sharing Economy
80
Sharing Economy
81 jwtintelligence.com
Mobile Computing
• Mobile payment
82
Mobile Computing
83
Big Data
• Very soon Homo Sapiens will be producing
more data every year than in the previous
200,000 years
• Artificial Intelligence
• Automated knowledge management
• But also…
84
85
Hessian matrix from a quadratic programming problem 86
Frequency-domain circuit simulation 87
Linear programming problem 88
Computational fluid dynamics: shallow-water equations 89
Linear programming problem 90
Social network: people and the web pages they like 91
Big Data
• What those pictures are: solving a large
system of linear equations with a large
number (millions) of unknowns
Images by Margot Gerritsen (Stanford Univ), Tim Davis & Yifan Hu
http://www.cise.ufl.edu/research/sparse/matrices/ 92
Cloud Computing
• Personal digital life synchronized through
devices
• Offering anything as a service
93
Cryptography
• Post-quantum cryptography
• Bitcoin blockchain
• Zero-knowledge proofs
• Indistinguishability obfuscation
• Secure multi-party computation
94
Education
• Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs)
• The largest university in the world is Coursera with 5 million students
• There are thousands of MOOCs and they will adapt and evolve faster than traditional universities
• 2014: 81% of students in thge USA take at least one online course
• Talent identification and recruiting
95
Health Care
• In the USA 18% of GDP is $1 trillion, of which
70% is to cure the ill and 30% is diagnostics
• Expected to grow to 50% in 5 years thanks to
sensors and nanotech, to keep people out of
hospitals
96
Health Care
• Life expectancy is increasing: every year by 3
months
• Neurodegenerative diseases increase accordingly
• This means fewer doctors and more diagnostic
centers (and their staff)
97
Health Care
• The most dramatic and
rapid gains have occurred
in East Asia, where life
expectancy at birth
increased from less than 45
years in 1950 to more than
74 years today.
• Percentage Change in the
World’s Population by
Age: 2010-2050 (UN
estimates of 2010):
98
Wearable Computing
• Health monitoring
• Integration with
medical records and
social media
99
Fashion
100
Industry 4.0
• Innovation driven by scale:
– Until 1989 the scale was the millimeter
– In 2014 the scale is the nanoscale, heading
towsars quantum and biological scales.
– Biology and not the machine is the new
reference model (eg, build batteries with
viruses).
101
Industry 4.0
• Lower technological barriers to entry
– a distributed system of innovation: the
innovation system expands to highschool kids
– rapid diffusion of tools and know-how through
open source
– rapid prototyping
102
Industry 4.0
• 3D printing (2014: New Matter)
– will reduce transport costs just like Amazon
killed the bookstore
– but uses more energy
– print at home might be too expensive: where to
print?
103
Industry 4.0
• Amazon:
– 2010s: Amazon’s colossal PHX6 fulfilment
center at Phoenix (Arizona) is transformed into
an automated, robot-intensive facility
– The whole supply chain is made available to
other merchants as well
– Rapidly moving online business towards same-
day delivery and mobile shopping.
104
Industry 4.0
• Crowdfunding
– $3-5 billion
105
Industry 4.0
• What is changing:
– actors
– process
– investors
106
Hardware
• Quantum Computing?
107
Sensor revolution
• Thanks to progress in micro-electronics, batteries and wireless connectivity, sensors have become orders of magnitude cheaper
• The “cloud” enables them to communicate
108
Sensor revolution
• Networked sensors open virtually infinite horizons to a new generation of applications.
– Wearable computing
– Self-driving cars
– Embedded nanotechnology
– Robots
– Cashier-less payment
109
Internet of Things
• Communication standards
– AllJoyn (Qualcomm): objects can broadcast what they can do to all other objects nearby (WiFi or Bluetooth)
• Eg a television can announce that it can display notifications
– Industrial Internet Consortium (AT&T, Cisco, IBM, GE, Intel)
– Open InterConnect Consortium (Broadcom, Samsung, Dell)
110
Networked Cars
• 2014: 8% of cars have some kind of networking capability
• April 2014: all new BMW models will embed a SIM card
• 2020: 90% of new cars will have a SIM card
• Apps for the networked car:
– Search for parking space
– Communicate road hazards and accidents
– Exchange information about traffic
– Monitor driver’s behavior (eg, your son)
– Ride-sharing
111
Nanotech
• Nanomedicine
• Nanobots
112
Biotech • Moore's law vs Cost per genome
113
Biotech
114
iGEM Revolution • “Open source” biotech
• iGEM = International Genetically Engineered Machine
• Thousands of student bioengineers from all over the world create new life forms and race them every year at the iGEM Jamboree in Boston (since 2004)
• 2,500 competitors from 32 countries (2014), including high-school teams
• Global grassroots synthetic-biology revolution
• Repository of 2,000 genetic components called BioBricks.
• They create mostly microbes (e.g., organisms detecting and eliminating water pollutants)
• Drew Endy (Stanford) : cofounder of iGEM and co-founder of the BioBricks Foundation
115
Biohacking
• “Biology is technology” (Rob Carlson)
• A community of worldwide hobbyists
• Public domain database of genetic parts
• 20,000 biological parts
• Registry of Standard Biological Parts - MIT
– parts.mit.edu
– parts.igem.org
116
Biohacking
• Biocurious (Sunnyvale) - -20C Freezer
– PCR Machines
– qPCR
– Balance
– Autoclave
– Micropipettes, single and multi-channel
– Fluorescent Microscope
– Microcentrifuges
– Protein Purification System
– Vortexers
– Ultrasonic Bath
– CO2 Incubator
117
Biohacking
• OpenPCR (Polymerase Chain Reaction)
• PCR printers (identify a piece of DNA and make copies of it)
• Cambrian Genomics: a 3D printer for living beings
118
Biohacking
• Autodesk’s Project Cyborg: design tools for biohackers (quote: “Project Cyborg is a cloud-based meta-platform of design tools for programming matter across domains and scales”)
119
Artificial Intelligence
• Amazon (Kiva, 2012), Google (Industrial
Robotics, Meka, Holomni, Bot & Dolly,
DNNresearch, Schaft, Bost, DeepMind, 2013-14),
IBM (Watson project), Microsoft (Project Adam,
2014), Apple (Siri, 2011), Facebook (DeepFace,
2013), Yahoo (LookFlow, 2013), Baidu, Foxconn,
and others have made multi-billion dollar
investments in artificial intelligence and robotics
in the 2010s
120
Artificial Intelligence
• McKensey on A.I.
121
Artificial Intelligence
• Machine Learning
• Domestic robot
• Image recognition
• Voice recognition
122
Artificial Intelligence
• Today’s robot: you
123
Artificial Intelligence
• Robot of the future: thousands of eyes and
arms geographically distributed
124
Artificial Intelligence
• Programming:
– Sequential programming (deterministic)
– Nonsequential (AI, deterministic)
– Probabilistic (Baysian, nondeterministic)
– Probabilistic and distributed
125
Artificial Intelligence
• The 20-minute answer to a search (Peter
Norvig at Google)
126
Artificial Intelligence
• Memorable pictures
Following slides are from MIT’s AI Lab 127
Artificial Intelligence
• Memorable pictures
128
Artificial Intelligence
• Memorable pictures
129
Artificial Intelligence
• Memorable pictures
130
Artificial Intelligence
• Memorable pictures
131
Super-intelligence
• The Singularity?
• 2014: Deep Knowledge Ventures (Hong Kong) appoints an algorithm to its board of directors.
132
Management Science
• Transitioning into a new era:
– Hierarchical -> Network
– Proprietary -> Open
– Market Economy -> Gift Economy And Sharing Economy
133
Management Science
• "Design for loss of control"
(JP Rangaswami)
• Turn an organization into a
social enterprise
134
Management Science
• How to prepare the next generation of leaders to deal with extremely complex and rapidly mutating systems
• Grand challenges require interdisciplinary thinking
135
Stanford Entrepreneurship
136
Entrepreneurship Organizations
• Association of Industry-Minded Stanford Professionals – postdoc
networking to link entrepreneurship and industry
• Business Association of Stanford Entrepreneurial Students – business
plan competitions, E-Challenge and Social E-Challenge
• Center for Entrepreneurial Studies at the Graduate School of Business –
personalized counseling and mentorship
• Innovation Farm Teams – students and faculty/industry/OTL teams
• SPARK – School of Medicine and volunteers from biotech, pharma and
healthcare; seed funding to bridge basic science and pre-clinical
• Stanford Angels & Entrepreneurs – foster relationships between
potential investors and entrepreneurs
• Stanford Biodesign – needs finding and invention of biomedical tech
• Stanford Entrepreneurship Network – federation of organizations
• Stanford Technology Ventures Program – accelerate high-technology
entrepreneurship education and research on technology-based firms
137
Entrepreneurship Courses
• School of Engineering – over 30 courses within the Stanford
Technology Ventures Program
• Graduate School of Business – 20 courses related to
entrepreneurship
• Entrepreneurial Design for Extreme Affordability – jointly offered
by Graduate School of Business and School of Engineering
• Lean Launchpad – hands-on learning on what it’s like to start a
high tech company
138
Stanford University
• Interdisciplinary education promoted at the various schools at Stanford’s engineering, business, medicine, science, design
• Students from diverse majors encouraged to come together to solve real or abstract problems
• The goal is to have them become what are called “T-shaped” students, who have depth in a particular field of study but also breadth across multiple disciplines.
• Eg, Institute of Design, or the d.school, housed in the school of engineering
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Stanford University
• Stanford forms T-shaped people
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Stanford University
• Faculty invest in start-ups launched by their students or colleagues.
• There are probably more faculty millionaires at Stanford than at any other university in the world.
• 2005: the stock grants that Stanford had received in exchange for licensing Google’s technology were sold for 360 million dollars.
• The real value for a student is the networking
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Art/Science/Tech Interaction
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Art/Science in the Bay Area
• Leonardo ISAST leonardo.info (Frank Malina, 1967)
• YLEM (Trudy Reagan & Howard Pearlmutter, 1981)
• UC Berkeley's Art, Technology, and Culture Colloquium (Ken
Goldberg, 1997)
• Zero1 zero1.org (Andy Cunningham, 2000)
• LASERs lasertalks.com (Piero Scaruffi, 2008)
• UC Santa Cruz's OpenLab (Jenifer Parker and Enrico Rameriz-Ruiz,
2010)
• Codame codame.com (Bruno Fonzi, 2010)
• BAASICS baasics.com (Selene Foster and Christopher Reiger, 2011)
• UC Santa Cruz's Art/Sci Institute (John Weber, 2013)
• Life Art Science Technology (LAST) festival lastfestival.com (Piero
Scaruffi, 2014)
• Djerassi's Scientific Delirium Madness (Margot Knight, 2014)
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www.nasonline.org
events.stanford.edu
www.lasertalks.com
Since January 2008
usfcalendar.usfca.edu
http://dma.ucla.edu
www.unex.berkeley.edu
arts.ucsc.edu/
artsciencefusion.ucdavis.edu/
londonlaser.net
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• San Francisco: since Jan 2008 (SFSU, then USF)
• Silicon Valley: Feb 2009 (SETI Inst, then Stanford)
• Washington: Mar 2011 (National Academy of Science)
• New York: Sep 2011
• UCLA: Jan 2013
• Berkeley: Jun 2013
• Santa Cruz: October 2013
• Davis: October 2013
• London: February 2014
• Texas: 2014
• Kansas: 2015
• Toronto: 2015
146 www.lasertalks.com
147
LAST Festival Life Art Science Technology festival
June 2014: Silicon Valley - October 2014: San Francisco
www.lastfestival.com
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The Best Kept Secret in
Silicon Valley
• Why did it happen there???
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Why did it happen here?
• The technology, the money and the brains were on the East Coast and in Europe (the great electronic research labs, the great mathematicians, Wall Street, etc)
• The great universities were on the East Coast (MIT, Harvard, Moore School, Princeton, Columbia), and in Europe (Cambridge)
• Bell Labs, RCA Labs, IBM Labs
• Britain and Germany won most of the Nobels
• Transistor, computer, etc all invented elsewhere
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Silicon Valley in 1950
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Silicon Valley in 1950
(2007)
31
$4.4
$1.3
(2013)
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Why did it happen here?
• The official history of Silicon Valley
– Defense/DARPA
– Fred Terman at Stanford and Stanford Industrial Park
– William Shockley’s lab
– Fairchild/Intel/semiconductors
– Xerox PARC, SRI Intl/computer-human interface
– Apple, personal computing, videogames
– Unix, Internet, Relational databases
– The dotcoms
– Google, Facebook, …
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Why Silicon Valley?
• Until the 1950s the Bay Area was mainly famous for
– Eccentric artists/writers
• Student protests of 1964
• Hippies
• Black Panther Party (1966)
• Monterey’s rock festival (1967)
• "Whole Earth Catalog“ (1968)
• The first “Earth Day” (1970)
• Gay Pride Parade (1970)
• Survival Research Labs (1978)
• New-age movement (1980s)
• Burning Man (1986)
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Why Silicon Valley?
The first major wave of immigration of young educated people from all over the world took place during the hippy era (“Summer of Love”)
The first major wave of technology
was driven by independents, amateurs and hobbyists (From ham radio to the Homebrew Computer Club)
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Why Silicon Valley?
• Anti-corporate sentiment
• The start-ups implement principles
of the hippy commune
• SRI Intl and Xerox PARC:
computation for the masses,
augmented intelligence
Xerox PARC
The first mouse
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Why Silicon Valley?
• The Bay Area recasts both Unix and the
Internet as idealistic grass-roots
movements
• Young educated people wanted to
change the world
• They did
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Why Silicon Valley?
• Dysfunctional synergy between two opposite
poles
– The rational and the irrational
– Technologists and anti-technologists
– Hippies and engineers
– Amateurs and corporations
– Nerds and outlaws (the "traitors", Jobs,
Ellison, Zuckerberg, hackers)
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Why Silicon Valley?
• Innovation is a vague word: everything is an "innovation". What kind of innovation does Silicon Valley specialize in?
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Why Silicon Valley?
• What Silicon Valley does best
– Not invented here: computer, transistor, integrated circuit, robots, Artificial Intelligence, programming languages, databases, videogames, Internet, personal computers, World-wide web, search engines, social media, smartphones, wearable computing, space exploration, electrical cars, driverless cars…
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Why Silicon Valley?
• What Silicon Valley does best
– Invented here: disrupting products
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Silicon Valley 2014
• World's #1 company in…
– Internet services: Google
– Social Media: Facebook
– Semiconductors: Intel
– Personal computers: Hewlett-Packard
– Business software: Oracle
Most valued company in the world: Apple
Location with the most venture capital: 3000 Sand Hill Rd, Menlo Park
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Why Silicon Valley?
• Culture of failure: it comes from the artists (risk inherent in being an artist)
• Culture of success: it comes from the artists (congrats if you make a lot of money out of the crazy ideas you had)
• Meritocracy: it comes from the artists (industrial power is usually inherited)
• Casual work environment - just like an artist’s studio
• Silicon Valley is about the garage (like the artists)
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Why Silicon Valley?
• Crowdfunding, peer-to-peer file
sharing, the gift economy and the
sharing economy are NOT natural
consequences of traditional industrial
capitalistic society
• but they are a natural consequence of
the artists' way of life
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Why Silicon Valley?
• Immigration of young educated people from
all over the world (Note! USA gets brains,
Silicon Valley gets YOUNG brains)
• Young people are less specialistic (narrow
minded? parochial?) than older people
• Computer geeks and nerds are actually
more likely to absorb the influence of artists
(and even to become polymaths)
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Europe vs SV
• Europe: no trust in a young person starting a business
• SV: young people are the ones who found new music genres and become rock stars
• Europe: frightened by new technology
• SV: what kind of party can I throw with this new technology?
TechCrunch Disrupt
September 2013
The first LAST festival
June 2014
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Europe vs SV
• Europe: fear of “Big Brother”
• SV: please take my privacy and make me cool and famous (just like an artist)
Viviane Reding,
EU’s justice commissioner
Steve Jobs Sergey Brin
"It is better to be absolutely ridiculous than
absolutely boring“ (Marilyn Monroe)
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Replicating Silicon Valley The rest of the world consistently failed to create
their own Silicon Valleys:
• Sophia Antipolis (France)
• Munich (Germany)
• Oulu (Finland)
• Skolkovo (Russia)
• Israel
• Hsinchu (Taiwan)
• Singapore
• Cyberjaya (Malaysia)
• Bangalore (India)
• Zhongguancun (China)
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Progress does not need SV
• One century ago, within a relatively short period of time, the world adopted:
– the car,
– the airplane,
– the telephone,
– the radio
– the record
– cinema
• while at the same time the visual arts went through
– Impressionism,
– Cubism
– Expressionism
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Progress does not need SV
• while at the same time science came up with
– Quantum Mechanics
– Relativity
• while at the same time the office was revolutionized by
– cash registers,
– adding machines,
– typewriters
• while at the same time the home was revolutionized by
– dishwasher,
– refrigerator,
– air conditioning
170
Progress does not need SV
• while at the same time cities adopted high-rise
buildings
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Progress does not need SV
• There were only 5 radio stations in 1921 but already 525 in 1923
• The USA produced 11,200 cars in 1903, but already 1.5 million in 1916
• By 1917 a whopping 40% of households had a telephone in the USA up from 5% in 1900.
• The Wright brothers flew the first plane in 1903: during World War I (1915-18) more than 200,000 planes were built
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… but it may need the arts…
• Accelerating progress happened
simultaneously in the sciences and the arts
Monet Stravinsky Einstein Gaudi Edison