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Multipurpose & Heavy-Lift Fleet Update BreakBulk Europe 2016
26th May 2016
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Agenda: No let-up: MPV/HL Fleet still under siege
• Vessel Supply ‒ Multipurpose vessels and project carriers
• Cargo Demand ‒ Dry cargo demand, General cargo demand and Project cargo
• Sector Competition ‒ Handy bulk carriers and Container vessels
• Market Outlook ‒ Challenges and conclusions
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Vessel Supply
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Vessel Supply
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk/publishing)
MPV Fleet age profile (‘000 dwt)
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Vessel SupplyMPV Fleet age profile by vessel type (‘000 dwt)
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk/publishing)
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Vessel Supply
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk/publishing)
MPV orderbook / delivery schedule (no. of vessels)
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Vessel SupplyMPV & HeavyLift demolitions (‘000 dwt) Average age of demolitions (years)
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk/publishing)
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Vessel SupplyFleet development to 2018 (‘000 dwt)
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk/publishing)
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Vessel Supply
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk/publishing)
Fleet development by vessel type to 2018 (‘000 dwt)
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Cargo Demand
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Cargo Demand
World economic growth (% change)
Crude oil price – Dubai ($/bbl)
World economic growth (% change)
Key Drivers
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk/publishing)
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Cargo DemandDevelopment of dry cargo demand (million tonnes)
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk/publishing)
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Cargo DemandDevelopment of General cargo demand (million tonnes)
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk/publishing)
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Cargo DemandDevelopment of MPV market share (million tonnes)
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk/publishing)
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Sector Competition
www.drewry.co.ukDrewry Maritime Research | #bbeu201616
Sector competitionDrewry all earnings index
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk/publishing)
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Sector competitionWeighted East-West Container rates ($ per TEU) Estimated bulkcarrier time charter rates ($pd)
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk/publishing)
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Sector competitionOne year timecharter rates ($pd)
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk/publishing)
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Market Outlook
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Market outlookSupply vs Demand balance
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk/publishing)
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Market outlookSupply vs Demand Index – Projected movement in rates
Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk/publishing)
Market Outlook
• Forecast for the MPV Fleet ‒ 2016 expected to be another difficult year ‒ 2017 unlikely to see significant increase before second half ‒ 2018 hoping to turn a corner
• Factors affecting the forecast ‒ Global trade growth weak throughout 2016, principally due to slowdown
from China but also low oil price and little investment. ‒ Competing sectors struggling with weak cargo demand, likely to encroach
further into MPV share of general cargo ‒ MPV sector disproportionally losing market share ‒ Total MPV fleet supply forecast growth at just 0.3%pa but the project
carrier segment is much stronger at almost 4%pa over the period
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