Download - Mount Rainier Evacuation Plan
Mount Rainier Evacuation PlanCPT Cardy Moten III, USA
LT Volkan Sozen, Turkish Army
OutlineBackground
Problem
Assumptions
Model Overview
Results
Further Research
Questions
Background• Pierce County
• Mount Rainier
• Lahars• Volcanic Mudflows• Can occur with or without an
eruption• Examples
• Mount Saint Helens (1980)• Columbia (1985)• Africa (2012)
Background
• Impact• Major residential areas
inhabitable• Portions of I-5 and other state
roads inaccessible• Port of Tacoma
• 75% of goods for Eastern and Central US
• 70% of consumer goods for Alaska
Problem• Short term (No Eruption)
• Early warning from lahar detection system only
• Analyze total number not evacuated
• Given:• 2 hours• 43,395 vehicles• Varying lahar travel times
Problem• Long term (Eruption)
• Analyze total required evacuation time
• Given:• 727,635 evacuees• Various warning horizons• Same evacuees
Simplifying Assumptions All households have one vehicle for evacuation
Total passengers per vehicle was an average of four
Transportation routes will be utilized to max capacity with serious gridlock.
Some personnel will evacuate even if they aren’t in danger, causing an uptick in network utilization.
Short-Term Scenario
Network Overview
4080
110
Lahar travel time in minutes from time of detection
Mount Rainier
Greenwater
Enumclaw
BuckleyWilkeson
Carbonado
AshfordElbe
Eatonville
Orting
Sumner
Graham
MckennaYelm
MortonRandle
Packwodd
Gig Harbor
Puyallup
Tacoma
Federal Way Auburn
Kent
Renton
Seattle
Alder
Short Term Evacuation Scenario
Castle Rock
Safe Node
Transit Node
Evacuation Node
Lacey
Simplified Graph
Roadway
N
Long-Term Scenario
Mount Rainier
Greenwater
Enumclaw
BuckleyWilkeson
Carbonado
AshfordElbe
Eatonville
Orting
Sumner
Graham
MckennaYelm
MortonRandle
Packwodd
Gig Harbor
Puyallup
Tacoma
Federal Way Auburn
Kent
Renton
Seattle
Alder
Castle Rock
Lacey
Roadway
N
Mount Rainier
Greenwater
Enumclaw
BuckleyWilkeson
Carbonado
AshfordElbe
Eatonville
Orting
Sumner
Graham
MckennaYelm
MortonRandle
Packwodd
Gig Harbor
Puyallup
Tacoma
Federal Way Auburn
Kent
Renton
Seattle
Alder
Long Term Evacuation Scenario
Castle Rock
Safe Node
Transit Node
Evacuation Node
Lacey
Simplified Graph
Roadway
N
Model Overview• Modeled for min cost flow
• Used time layered format
• Only major state and interstate roads for edges
• Considered lahar reach time for each city
End
Time = n
Time = n+1
Time = n+2C,
0,U
B
0,0,∞
1,0,
∞
Model Overview• Values on edges are
(C,LB,UB):
• C = Travel times• Lower Bound(LB) = 0• Upper Bound(UB)=Edge
capacity• 30 vehicles for state
roads• 80 vehicles for
interstate• Total population for
end node
End
Time = n
Time = n+1
Time = n+2C,
0,U
B
0,0,∞
1,0,
∞
Congestion
Model OverviewShort-term evacuation graph (small model)
80 time layers6,247 nodes14,118 edges
Long-term evacuation graph(large model)1000 time layers80,081 nodes295,486 edges
Short-Term Evacuation Results w/o Interdicion
Undirected Travel Lanes Could not evacuate a total of
13 cities. Percentage of households
stranded was 45%
Network Design Directed Travel Lanes
Met demand for all danger areas except 15% of Puyallup’s population
Not all of Puyallup’s citizens live near the Puyallup river
Recommend opposite traffic flow on 33 roads
Puyallup River
Mount Rainier
Greenwater
Enumclaw
BuckleyWilkeson
Carbonado
AshfordElbe
Eatonville
Orting
Sumner
Graham
MckennaYelm
MortonRandle
Packwodd
Gig Harbor
Puyallup
Tacoma
Federal Way Auburn
Kent
Renton
Seattle
Alder
Short Term Evacuation Scenario
Castle Rock
Safe Node
Transit Node
Evacuation Node
Lacey
Simplified GraphUndirected Travel
Roadway
N
Mount Rainier
Greenwater
Enumclaw
BuckleyWilkeson
Carbonado
AshfordElbe
Eatonville
Orting
Sumner
Graham
MckennaYelm
MortonRandle
Packwodd
Gig Harbor
Puyallup
Tacoma
Federal Way Auburn
Kent
Renton
Seattle
Alder
Short Term Evacuation Scenario
Castle Rock
Safe Node
Transit Node
Evacuation Node
Lacey
Simplified GraphDirected Travel
Roadway
N
Interdicted short-term plan
Two-way travel only Attacks isolated
personnel in:PuyallupSumner
Interdiction Model Results
0 1 2 3 4 5 62000
6000
10000
14000
18000
# of Inaccessable Roads versus # of Stranded Vehicles
# of Interdictions
Stra
nded
Veh
icle
s
Long-Term Evacuation Results
No Interdiction Total evacuation time is 15 hours Total-run time for the model took 24 minutes
Interdiction Best attack was to shut off route to Castle rock in the south Total evacuation time is 16.1 hours Total run-time for the model took 86 minutes
Mount Rainier
Greenwater
Enumclaw
BuckleyWilkeson
Carbonado
AshfordElbe
Eatonville
Orting
Sumner
Graham
MckennaYelm
MortonRandle
Packwodd
Gig Harbor
Puyallup
Tacoma
Federal Way Auburn
Kent
Renton
Seattle
Alder
Long Term Evacuation Scenario
Castle Rock
Safe Node
Transit Node
Evacuation Node
Lacey
Simplified Graph
Roadway
N
Block here
Further Research Emplace more roadblocks on the long-term scenario
Conduct a fine-grain analysis on the short-term evacuation of Puyallup
Minimize the evacuation of the last household to leave the region
Data Evacuation planning data extracted from the Pierce County
Evacuation Plan (2008)
Population data is from the US Census American Fact Finder website http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml
Highway capacities estimated from thesis submitted by LCDR April Malveo (2013)
QUESTIONS?