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Mobility – Challenges and Uncertainties Dr. Norbert Neumann SSM Forum 17. September 2015, Campus Sursee, Schweiz
This presentation contains forward-looking statements, particularly those regarding global economic growth, population growth, energy consumption, policy support for renewable energies and sources of energy supply. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events, and depend on circumstances, that will or may occur in the future. Actual outcomes may differ depending on a variety of factors, including product supply, demand and p ricing; political stability; general economic conditions; legal and regulatory developments; availability of new technologies; n atural disasters and adverse weather conditions; wars and acts of terrorism or sabotage; and other factors discussed elsewhere in this presentation.
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Agenda
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• Introduction
• Global Energy Perspective
• Energy in Transport
• European Transport Agenda
• Summary
http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/about-bp/energy-economics/energy-outlook.html http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/about-bp/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html
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BP Worldwide
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• 2014 turnover: $ 359.8 billion
• Earnings: $ 8.1 billion
• Employing approx. 84,500 people in almost 80 countries
• 17 billion barrels proved reserves of oil equivalent
• 1.7 million barrels refining throughput per day
• Approx. 17,200 service stations
Source: BP 2014 Annual Report and Form 20F, figures as per 31.12.2014
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Continuous change is the norm in our industry
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Global Energy Perspective
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Growing population and prosperity
6 Source: BP Outlook 2035
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Countries influencing future energy demand
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33%
67%
Global Population & GDP
China + India
Rest of the world
Source: BP Outlook 2035
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Global energy demand growth up to 2035
8 Source: BP Outlook 2035
toe = tons oil equivalent
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Share of fossil energy will still be 80%, but there will be a shift from oil towards gas
9 Source: BP Outlook Source: BP Outlook 2035
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New sources for energy production
• World primary energy production grows at 1.4% p.a. from 2013 to 2035, matching the growth of consumption.
• New sources of energy, aided by improved technology and productivity, make a significant contribution to supply growth.
• Renewables, shale gas, tight oil and other new fuel sources in aggregate grow at 6% p.a. and contribute 45% of the increment in energy production to 2035.
10 Source: BP Outlook
toe = tons oil equivalent
Source: BP Outlook 2035
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Renewables represent a growing source in power - Europe has a highest share
• Falling costs enable renewables to continue to gain share in Europe.
• Infrastructure becomes a constraint in European renewables market growth. (EU proactive approach – AFID/Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Directive)
• Outside the EU, renewables are still scaling up
− US does not reach the current EU level of renewables penetration until 2030
− It takes even longer for China
11 Source: BP Outlook Source: BP Outlook 2035
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Energy in Transport
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Total transport market shares
• Energy demand for all transport areas will grow from 1.8 billion toe in 2000 to 3.0 billion toe in 2035
• Energy demand for commercial transportation will grow by 70%.
• Heavy duty growth more than 100%
• Heavy duty will dominate in road transport
• Importance of gasoline to decrease
• Chances for gas in dedicated areas possible (mainly US and China)
13 Source: EXXON Energy Outlook 2015
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Vehicle population
• The global vehicle fleet expected to increase from 1.2 billion today to 2.4 billion by 2035.
• Most of that growth is in the developing world (88%)
• OECD markets are approaching or are already at saturation levels.
14 Source: BP Outlook
OECD = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
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Fuel economy
• Fuel economy has improved in recent years
• Forecast to improve by 2.1% p.a. between now and 2035
• Improved by about 1.5% p.a. over the past decade
• Transport demand rises by only 30%, despite a more than doubling of the vehicle fleet
15 Source: BP Outlook Source: BP Outlook 2035
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European Transport Agenda
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Drivers in European Fuels Market Change
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Emissions/ Environmental Restrictions
New and Advanced Engine
Technologies
Increasing Renewables
Content
Standardizing Products on
European Level
Product Quality
Industry Research
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European Legislation/ Regulation/ Standardisation
• Review of Transport Policy for Post-2030
• Application of RED/FQD updates
• REACH - Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals
• Review of EN 590 (European Diesel Standard), EN 228 (European Gasoline Standard) and EN 589 (European LPG Standard)
• Standardisation of growth/captive fleet products on European Level
− CNG/LNG
− B10
− B20/B30
− E85
− Paraffinic Fuel (HVO/XTL)
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Extreme Measures - Diesel Ban in Metropolitan Cities
• Parisian Mayor pledging “an end to diesel in Paris in 2020”
• 29/04/2015 - Supreme Court ordered British government to submit new air quality plans to the European Commission by 31/12/2015 due to continued failure to meet NO2 emission requirements.
− Discussions that London might follow Paris response to air emissions problem
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Alternative energies for transport
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Propulsion with internal combustion engines: • Biofuels - Wide feedstock range with renewable low-CO2 sources • Synthetic fuels - Production from fossil and renewable sources with synthetic technologies • Natural gas - Fossil (natural gas) and renewable sources (biomethane; "solar/ wind" gas) • LPG - Fossil (oil, natural gas) and renewable sources (bio-refineries) Propulsion with electric motors: • Electricity - Stored in batteries on board of vehicles; grid supply or recuperation • Hydrogen - Stored in tanks on board of vehicles; electricity production in fuel cells
Success of alternative fuels is significantly impacted by declining oil prices
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Diversification of powertrains expected - ICE remains backbone of mobility
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Quelle: VDA
• CO2 targets lead to increased efficiency in the combustion engine • Increased market entry of alternative drive systems after 2025 • Conventional power trains are complemented by electrified engines • Hybrid vehicles are projected to grow to 50% of sales by 2040 • Modest gains in full electric vehicles • Renewables (including biofuels) account for 8% of total energy consumption in 2035, compared to just 3% today
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Key uncertainties - exploring the impact of alternative assumptions
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GDP Growth
Geopolitics
Climate Policies
China‘s electrification
Source: BP Outlook 2035
- what if growth in China and India slows more rapidly than assumed?
- what if policymakers take more actions to reduce emissions?
- what are the implications of heightened geopolitical risks?
- what if China’s electricity use follows a different path?
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Thank you
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