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Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Mixed models with variance heterogeneity
David Afshartous, Ph.D.
Miller School of Medicine, Division of Clinical PharmacolgoyUniversity of Miami
Joint with Geert Verbeke, Ph.D., Katholieke Universiteit Leuven; Richard A.Preston, M.D., University of Miami
Vanderbilt University School of MedicineSeptember 30, 2009
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Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Outline
1 Introduction
2 Extending the basic model
3 Simulation
4 Analytical Explanation
5 Summary
6 Extra Slides
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Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Outline
1 Introduction
2 Extending the basic model
3 Simulation
4 Analytical Explanation
5 Summary
6 Extra Slides
![Page 4: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Background
Mixed-effects models very popular across wide range ofapplications, e.g., longitudinal or repeated measures dataarising from clinical trials; hierarchical or clustered dataarising from observational studies (Brown & Prescott 2006;Verbeke & Molenberghs 2000)
Motivations: better estimates of uncertainty; borrowingstrength; modeling variability between and within groups;irregularly spaced time points, missing dataFixed effects describe the mean structure while randomeffects account for the association structure in the data andlead to estimates of subject-specific profiles.
![Page 5: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Background
Mixed-effects models very popular across wide range ofapplications, e.g., longitudinal or repeated measures dataarising from clinical trials; hierarchical or clustered dataarising from observational studies (Brown & Prescott 2006;Verbeke & Molenberghs 2000)Motivations: better estimates of uncertainty; borrowingstrength; modeling variability between and within groups;irregularly spaced time points, missing data
Fixed effects describe the mean structure while randomeffects account for the association structure in the data andlead to estimates of subject-specific profiles.
![Page 6: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Background
Mixed-effects models very popular across wide range ofapplications, e.g., longitudinal or repeated measures dataarising from clinical trials; hierarchical or clustered dataarising from observational studies (Brown & Prescott 2006;Verbeke & Molenberghs 2000)Motivations: better estimates of uncertainty; borrowingstrength; modeling variability between and within groups;irregularly spaced time points, missing dataFixed effects describe the mean structure while randomeffects account for the association structure in the data andlead to estimates of subject-specific profiles.
![Page 7: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Stochastic Components of Linear Mixed Model
Time
Response Average evolution
Subject 1
Subject 2
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Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Notation
Yi = Xiβ +Zibi + εi , (1)
Yi is an ni -vector of observations for the i th subject, Xi isan ni ×p vector of covariatesβ is a p-vector of fixed effects, Zi is an ni ×q design matrixfor the random effectsbi : q-vector of random effectsεi : ni vector of within-subject residual errorbi ∼ N(0,D) and εi ∼ N(0,σ2I) with bi independent of εi .
![Page 9: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Notation
Yi = Xiβ +Zibi + εi , (1)
Yi is an ni -vector of observations for the i th subject, Xi isan ni ×p vector of covariates
β is a p-vector of fixed effects, Zi is an ni ×q design matrixfor the random effectsbi : q-vector of random effectsεi : ni vector of within-subject residual errorbi ∼ N(0,D) and εi ∼ N(0,σ2I) with bi independent of εi .
![Page 10: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Notation
Yi = Xiβ +Zibi + εi , (1)
Yi is an ni -vector of observations for the i th subject, Xi isan ni ×p vector of covariatesβ is a p-vector of fixed effects, Zi is an ni ×q design matrixfor the random effects
bi : q-vector of random effectsεi : ni vector of within-subject residual errorbi ∼ N(0,D) and εi ∼ N(0,σ2I) with bi independent of εi .
![Page 11: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Notation
Yi = Xiβ +Zibi + εi , (1)
Yi is an ni -vector of observations for the i th subject, Xi isan ni ×p vector of covariatesβ is a p-vector of fixed effects, Zi is an ni ×q design matrixfor the random effectsbi : q-vector of random effectsεi : ni vector of within-subject residual error
bi ∼ N(0,D) and εi ∼ N(0,σ2I) with bi independent of εi .
![Page 12: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Notation
Yi = Xiβ +Zibi + εi , (1)
Yi is an ni -vector of observations for the i th subject, Xi isan ni ×p vector of covariatesβ is a p-vector of fixed effects, Zi is an ni ×q design matrixfor the random effectsbi : q-vector of random effectsεi : ni vector of within-subject residual errorbi ∼ N(0,D) and εi ∼ N(0,σ2I) with bi independent of εi .
![Page 13: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Differential variability for population subgroups
Standard mixed model does not account for differentialvariability across population subgroups
Treatment growth curves may exhibit higher variability if thetreatment worked very well on some subjects and poorlyon others; lower variability if treatment depresses outcomevariable to some common lower boundQuestion: Stratify random effect variance and/or residualerror variance?
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Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Differential variability for population subgroups
Standard mixed model does not account for differentialvariability across population subgroupsTreatment growth curves may exhibit higher variability if thetreatment worked very well on some subjects and poorlyon others; lower variability if treatment depresses outcomevariable to some common lower bound
Question: Stratify random effect variance and/or residualerror variance?
![Page 15: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Differential variability for population subgroups
Standard mixed model does not account for differentialvariability across population subgroupsTreatment growth curves may exhibit higher variability if thetreatment worked very well on some subjects and poorlyon others; lower variability if treatment depresses outcomevariable to some common lower boundQuestion: Stratify random effect variance and/or residualerror variance?
![Page 16: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Example from potassium handling clinical trial (N=19)
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Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Literature
Gelman & Hill (2007), Brown & Prescott (2006), Snijders &Bosker (1999) discuss differential treatment groupvariability
Littell et al. (2006) warn that failure to account forheterogeneity can lead to inefficient and possiblymisleading inferences for fixed effectsVerbeke & Lesaffre 1996,1997; Magder & Zeger 1996;Butler & Louis 1992; mixture model, variance constantacross subgroupsMarhshall & Baron (2000), Brant et al. (2003) “fullyheteroscedastic” modelDunson (2009), Bayesian nonparametric infinite mixturemodel
![Page 18: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Literature
Gelman & Hill (2007), Brown & Prescott (2006), Snijders &Bosker (1999) discuss differential treatment groupvariabilityLittell et al. (2006) warn that failure to account forheterogeneity can lead to inefficient and possiblymisleading inferences for fixed effects
Verbeke & Lesaffre 1996,1997; Magder & Zeger 1996;Butler & Louis 1992; mixture model, variance constantacross subgroupsMarhshall & Baron (2000), Brant et al. (2003) “fullyheteroscedastic” modelDunson (2009), Bayesian nonparametric infinite mixturemodel
![Page 19: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Literature
Gelman & Hill (2007), Brown & Prescott (2006), Snijders &Bosker (1999) discuss differential treatment groupvariabilityLittell et al. (2006) warn that failure to account forheterogeneity can lead to inefficient and possiblymisleading inferences for fixed effectsVerbeke & Lesaffre 1996,1997; Magder & Zeger 1996;Butler & Louis 1992; mixture model, variance constantacross subgroups
Marhshall & Baron (2000), Brant et al. (2003) “fullyheteroscedastic” modelDunson (2009), Bayesian nonparametric infinite mixturemodel
![Page 20: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Literature
Gelman & Hill (2007), Brown & Prescott (2006), Snijders &Bosker (1999) discuss differential treatment groupvariabilityLittell et al. (2006) warn that failure to account forheterogeneity can lead to inefficient and possiblymisleading inferences for fixed effectsVerbeke & Lesaffre 1996,1997; Magder & Zeger 1996;Butler & Louis 1992; mixture model, variance constantacross subgroupsMarhshall & Baron (2000), Brant et al. (2003) “fullyheteroscedastic” modelDunson (2009), Bayesian nonparametric infinite mixturemodel
![Page 21: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Outline
1 Introduction
2 Extending the basic model
3 Simulation
4 Analytical Explanation
5 Summary
6 Extra Slides
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Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Stratified random effects variance
Yi = Xiβ +Zibi + εi
Var(bi) = Dk , k = 1,2
Intuition: if one instead estimates common random effectsvariance, estimate will lie between stratified estimates
Common random effect variance will be downward biasedfor the high variance group and upward biased for the lowvariance groupWhy is bias in the random effect variance estimatesimportant?
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Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Stratified random effects variance
Yi = Xiβ +Zibi + εi
Var(bi) = Dk , k = 1,2Intuition: if one instead estimates common random effectsvariance, estimate will lie between stratified estimates
Common random effect variance will be downward biasedfor the high variance group and upward biased for the lowvariance groupWhy is bias in the random effect variance estimatesimportant?
![Page 24: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Stratified random effects variance
Yi = Xiβ +Zibi + εi
Var(bi) = Dk , k = 1,2Intuition: if one instead estimates common random effectsvariance, estimate will lie between stratified estimates
Common random effect variance will be downward biasedfor the high variance group and upward biased for the lowvariance groupWhy is bias in the random effect variance estimatesimportant?
![Page 25: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Stratified random effects variance - cont
Why is bias in random effect variance estimate important?
Variance components are often of substantive interest intheir own rightVariance components affect shrinkage, i.e., pulling subjectprofile towards average evolutionDownward bias in random effect variance estimate⇒ increased shrinkage, i.e., subject profile will be pulledmore towards average profile.Effect on random effects estimates (predictions)themselves. Rankings of random effects.
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Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Stratified random effects variance - cont
Why is bias in random effect variance estimate important?Variance components are often of substantive interest intheir own rightVariance components affect shrinkage, i.e., pulling subjectprofile towards average evolution
Downward bias in random effect variance estimate⇒ increased shrinkage, i.e., subject profile will be pulledmore towards average profile.Effect on random effects estimates (predictions)themselves. Rankings of random effects.
![Page 27: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Stratified random effects variance - cont
Why is bias in random effect variance estimate important?Variance components are often of substantive interest intheir own rightVariance components affect shrinkage, i.e., pulling subjectprofile towards average evolutionDownward bias in random effect variance estimate⇒ increased shrinkage, i.e., subject profile will be pulledmore towards average profile.Effect on random effects estimates (predictions)themselves. Rankings of random effects.
![Page 28: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Stratified within-subject residual error variance
Yi = Xiβ +Zibi + εi
Var(εi) = σ2k I, k = 1,2
Similar intuition as for random effects variance
However, opposite impact since residual error affectspooling in opposite mannerDownward bias in residual error variance estimate⇒ decreased shrinkage, i.e., subject profile will be pulledless towards average profile.
![Page 29: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Stratified within-subject residual error variance
Yi = Xiβ +Zibi + εi
Var(εi) = σ2k I, k = 1,2
Similar intuition as for random effects variance
However, opposite impact since residual error affectspooling in opposite mannerDownward bias in residual error variance estimate⇒ decreased shrinkage, i.e., subject profile will be pulledless towards average profile.
![Page 30: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Stratified within-subject residual error variance
Yi = Xiβ +Zibi + εi
Var(εi) = σ2k I, k = 1,2
Similar intuition as for random effects variance
However, opposite impact since residual error affectspooling in opposite manner
Downward bias in residual error variance estimate⇒ decreased shrinkage, i.e., subject profile will be pulledless towards average profile.
![Page 31: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Stratified within-subject residual error variance
Yi = Xiβ +Zibi + εi
Var(εi) = σ2k I, k = 1,2
Similar intuition as for random effects variance
However, opposite impact since residual error affectspooling in opposite mannerDownward bias in residual error variance estimate⇒ decreased shrinkage, i.e., subject profile will be pulledless towards average profile.
![Page 32: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Outline
1 Introduction
2 Extending the basic model
3 Simulation
4 Analytical Explanation
5 Summary
6 Extra Slides
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Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Simulation Design
Balanced parallel group design, random intercept modelPlacebo group response γ0 = 4.4, treatment effect γ1 = 4.4
Sim I: random effects variance stratifiedSim II: residual error variance stratifiedSim III: both stratified1000 simulations; lme/lmer R packagesmodels: unstratified, RE-strat, resid-strat, both-strat
Residual error Random effects Sample sizesSim I: RE strat σy = .6,1.2,2.2,3.2,4.2 σd1 = 2.2, σd2 = 4.2 N = 10,20,40,80;ni = 4,8,16Sim II: Resid strat σy1 = 2.2, σy2 = 4.2 σd = .6,1.2,2.2,3.2,4.2 N = 10,20,40,80;ni = 4,8,16Sim III: Both strat A: (σy1 = 3.2, σy2 = 4.2) A: (σd1 = 2.2, σd2 = 4.2) N = 10,20,40,80;ni = 4,8,16
B: (σy1 = 4.2, σy2 = 6.2) B: (σd1 = 2.2, σd2 = 4.2) N = 10,20,40,80;ni = 4,8,16C: (σy1 = 0.6, σy2 = 1.2) C: (σd1 = 2.2, σd2 = 4.2) N = 10,20,40,80;ni = 4,8,16
![Page 34: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Simulation Design
Balanced parallel group design, random intercept modelPlacebo group response γ0 = 4.4, treatment effect γ1 = 4.4Sim I: random effects variance stratifiedSim II: residual error variance stratifiedSim III: both stratified
1000 simulations; lme/lmer R packagesmodels: unstratified, RE-strat, resid-strat, both-strat
Residual error Random effects Sample sizesSim I: RE strat σy = .6,1.2,2.2,3.2,4.2 σd1 = 2.2, σd2 = 4.2 N = 10,20,40,80;ni = 4,8,16Sim II: Resid strat σy1 = 2.2, σy2 = 4.2 σd = .6,1.2,2.2,3.2,4.2 N = 10,20,40,80;ni = 4,8,16Sim III: Both strat A: (σy1 = 3.2, σy2 = 4.2) A: (σd1 = 2.2, σd2 = 4.2) N = 10,20,40,80;ni = 4,8,16
B: (σy1 = 4.2, σy2 = 6.2) B: (σd1 = 2.2, σd2 = 4.2) N = 10,20,40,80;ni = 4,8,16C: (σy1 = 0.6, σy2 = 1.2) C: (σd1 = 2.2, σd2 = 4.2) N = 10,20,40,80;ni = 4,8,16
![Page 35: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Simulation Design
Balanced parallel group design, random intercept modelPlacebo group response γ0 = 4.4, treatment effect γ1 = 4.4Sim I: random effects variance stratifiedSim II: residual error variance stratifiedSim III: both stratified1000 simulations; lme/lmer R packagesmodels: unstratified, RE-strat, resid-strat, both-strat
Residual error Random effects Sample sizesSim I: RE strat σy = .6,1.2,2.2,3.2,4.2 σd1 = 2.2, σd2 = 4.2 N = 10,20,40,80;ni = 4,8,16Sim II: Resid strat σy1 = 2.2, σy2 = 4.2 σd = .6,1.2,2.2,3.2,4.2 N = 10,20,40,80;ni = 4,8,16Sim III: Both strat A: (σy1 = 3.2, σy2 = 4.2) A: (σd1 = 2.2, σd2 = 4.2) N = 10,20,40,80;ni = 4,8,16
B: (σy1 = 4.2, σy2 = 6.2) B: (σd1 = 2.2, σd2 = 4.2) N = 10,20,40,80;ni = 4,8,16C: (σy1 = 0.6, σy2 = 1.2) C: (σd1 = 2.2, σd2 = 4.2) N = 10,20,40,80;ni = 4,8,16
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Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Simulation Design
Balanced parallel group design, random intercept modelPlacebo group response γ0 = 4.4, treatment effect γ1 = 4.4Sim I: random effects variance stratifiedSim II: residual error variance stratifiedSim III: both stratified1000 simulations; lme/lmer R packagesmodels: unstratified, RE-strat, resid-strat, both-strat
Residual error Random effects Sample sizesSim I: RE strat σy = .6,1.2,2.2,3.2,4.2 σd1 = 2.2, σd2 = 4.2 N = 10,20,40,80;ni = 4,8,16Sim II: Resid strat σy1 = 2.2, σy2 = 4.2 σd = .6,1.2,2.2,3.2,4.2 N = 10,20,40,80;ni = 4,8,16Sim III: Both strat A: (σy1 = 3.2, σy2 = 4.2) A: (σd1 = 2.2, σd2 = 4.2) N = 10,20,40,80;ni = 4,8,16
B: (σy1 = 4.2, σy2 = 6.2) B: (σd1 = 2.2, σd2 = 4.2) N = 10,20,40,80;ni = 4,8,16C: (σy1 = 0.6, σy2 = 1.2) C: (σd1 = 2.2, σd2 = 4.2) N = 10,20,40,80;ni = 4,8,16
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Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Sim I results: variance components
Table: N = 10, ni = 4; residual error variance
unstratified random effects strat residual error strat both stratσy σ̂y σ̂y σ̂y1 σ̂y2 σ̂y1 σ̂y20.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.61.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.12.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.13.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.24.2 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.1
Table: N = 10, ni = 4; random effect variance
unstratified random effects strat residual error strat both stratσy σ̂d σ̂d1 (2.2) σ̂d2 (4.2) σ̂d σ̂d1 (2.2) σ̂d2(4.2)0.6 3.2 2.0 4.0 3.2 1.9 3.81.2 3.2 2.0 4.0 3.2 2.0 3.82.2 3.2 2.0 3.8 3.2 1.9 3.93.2 3.1 1.0 3.8 3.1 1.9 3.84.2 3.1 1.8 3.8 3.0 1.8 3.6
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Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Sim I results: variance components
Table: N = 10, ni = 4; residual error variance
unstratified random effects strat residual error strat both stratσy σ̂y σ̂y σ̂y1 σ̂y2 σ̂y1 σ̂y20.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.61.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.12.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.13.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.24.2 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.1
Table: N = 10, ni = 4; random effect variance
unstratified random effects strat residual error strat both stratσy σ̂d σ̂d1 (2.2) σ̂d2 (4.2) σ̂d σ̂d1 (2.2) σ̂d2(4.2)0.6 3.2 2.0 4.0 3.2 1.9 3.81.2 3.2 2.0 4.0 3.2 2.0 3.82.2 3.2 2.0 3.8 3.2 1.9 3.93.2 3.1 1.0 3.8 3.1 1.9 3.84.2 3.1 1.8 3.8 3.0 1.8 3.6
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Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Sim I results: fixed effect standard errors
N = 10,ni = 4 unstratified RE stratified resid strat both strat empirical SEσy γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂10.6 1.45 2.05 0.91 2.04 1.45 2.05 0.90 2.01 0.82 1.841.2 1.47 2.08 0.94 2.07 1.47 2.08 0.95 2.04 0.85 1.862.2 1.53 2.16 1.03 2.16 1.50 2.12 1.03 2.15 0.93 1.903.2 1.58 2.24 1.17 2.25 1.58 2.24 1.17 2.29 1.02 2.014.2 1.69 2.39 1.33 2.42 1.70 2.42 1.32 2.46 1.14 2.17
N = 10,ni = 16 unstratified RE stratified resid strat both strat empirical SEσy γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂10.6 1.45 2.05 0.91 2.05 1.45 2.05 0.91 2.05 0.82 1.841.2 1.44 2.04 0.93 2.04 1.44 2.04 0.93 2.03 0.83 1.832.2 1.46 2.07 0.94 2.07 1.46 2.07 0.95 2.07 0.85 1.853.2 1.51 2.14 0.98 2.14 1.51 2.14 0.97 2.12 0.88 1.924.2 1.52 2.15 1.01 2.15 1.52 2.15 1.02 2.14 0.91 1.93
N = 40,ni = 4 unstratified RE stratified resid strat both strat empirical SEσy γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂10.6 0.74 1.05 0.49 1.05 0.74 1.05 0.48 1.06 0.48 1.031.2 0.75 1.06 0.50 1.07 0.75 1.07 0.50 1.07 0.49 1.042.2 0.78 1.10 0.54 1.10 0 .78 1.10 0.54 1.10 0.53 1.083.2 0.82 1.16 0.60 1.16 0.82 1.16 0.60 1.16 0.59 1.144.2 0.87 1.24 0.67 1.24 0.86 1.23 0.67 1.24 0.65 1.21
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Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Sim I results: fixed effect standard errors
N = 10,ni = 4 unstratified RE stratified resid strat both strat empirical SEσy γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂10.6 1.45 2.05 0.91 2.04 1.45 2.05 0.90 2.01 0.82 1.841.2 1.47 2.08 0.94 2.07 1.47 2.08 0.95 2.04 0.85 1.862.2 1.53 2.16 1.03 2.16 1.50 2.12 1.03 2.15 0.93 1.903.2 1.58 2.24 1.17 2.25 1.58 2.24 1.17 2.29 1.02 2.014.2 1.69 2.39 1.33 2.42 1.70 2.42 1.32 2.46 1.14 2.17
N = 10,ni = 16 unstratified RE stratified resid strat both strat empirical SEσy γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂10.6 1.45 2.05 0.91 2.05 1.45 2.05 0.91 2.05 0.82 1.841.2 1.44 2.04 0.93 2.04 1.44 2.04 0.93 2.03 0.83 1.832.2 1.46 2.07 0.94 2.07 1.46 2.07 0.95 2.07 0.85 1.853.2 1.51 2.14 0.98 2.14 1.51 2.14 0.97 2.12 0.88 1.924.2 1.52 2.15 1.01 2.15 1.52 2.15 1.02 2.14 0.91 1.93
N = 40,ni = 4 unstratified RE stratified resid strat both strat empirical SEσy γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂10.6 0.74 1.05 0.49 1.05 0.74 1.05 0.48 1.06 0.48 1.031.2 0.75 1.06 0.50 1.07 0.75 1.07 0.50 1.07 0.49 1.042.2 0.78 1.10 0.54 1.10 0 .78 1.10 0.54 1.10 0.53 1.083.2 0.82 1.16 0.60 1.16 0.82 1.16 0.60 1.16 0.59 1.144.2 0.87 1.24 0.67 1.24 0.86 1.23 0.67 1.24 0.65 1.21
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Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Sim I results: fixed effect standard errors
N = 10,ni = 4 unstratified RE stratified resid strat both strat empirical SEσy γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂10.6 1.45 2.05 0.91 2.04 1.45 2.05 0.90 2.01 0.82 1.841.2 1.47 2.08 0.94 2.07 1.47 2.08 0.95 2.04 0.85 1.862.2 1.53 2.16 1.03 2.16 1.50 2.12 1.03 2.15 0.93 1.903.2 1.58 2.24 1.17 2.25 1.58 2.24 1.17 2.29 1.02 2.014.2 1.69 2.39 1.33 2.42 1.70 2.42 1.32 2.46 1.14 2.17
N = 10,ni = 16 unstratified RE stratified resid strat both strat empirical SEσy γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂10.6 1.45 2.05 0.91 2.05 1.45 2.05 0.91 2.05 0.82 1.841.2 1.44 2.04 0.93 2.04 1.44 2.04 0.93 2.03 0.83 1.832.2 1.46 2.07 0.94 2.07 1.46 2.07 0.95 2.07 0.85 1.853.2 1.51 2.14 0.98 2.14 1.51 2.14 0.97 2.12 0.88 1.924.2 1.52 2.15 1.01 2.15 1.52 2.15 1.02 2.14 0.91 1.93
N = 40,ni = 4 unstratified RE stratified resid strat both strat empirical SEσy γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂10.6 0.74 1.05 0.49 1.05 0.74 1.05 0.48 1.06 0.48 1.031.2 0.75 1.06 0.50 1.07 0.75 1.07 0.50 1.07 0.49 1.042.2 0.78 1.10 0.54 1.10 0 .78 1.10 0.54 1.10 0.53 1.083.2 0.82 1.16 0.60 1.16 0.82 1.16 0.60 1.16 0.59 1.144.2 0.87 1.24 0.67 1.24 0.86 1.23 0.67 1.24 0.65 1.21
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Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Sim I results: fixed effect standard errors, cont.
N = 40,ni = 16 unstratified RE stratified resid strat both strat empirical SEσy γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂10.6 0.74 1.05 0.48 1.05 0.74 1.05 0.48 1.06 0.48 1.031.2 0.74 1.05 0.49 1.05 0.74 1.05 0.49 1.06 0.48 1.032.2 0.75 1.06 0.50 1.06 0.75 1.06 0.49 1.06 0.49 1.043.2 0.76 1.08 0.52 1.08 0.76 1.08 0.51 1.08 0.51 1.054.2 0.77 1.09 0.53 1.09 0.77 1.09 0.53 1.10 0.52 1.07
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Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Sim I results: fixed effect standard errors, cont.
What if Placebo group is high variability group?
N = 10, ni = 4 unstratifed RE-stratified empirical SEσy γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂10.6 1.43 2.03 1.74 2.02 1.56 1.821.2 1.46 2.07 1.77 2.06 1.58 1.852.2 1.51 2.15 1.83 2.15 1.63 1.923.2 1.59 2.26 1.91 2.27 1.70 2.024.2 1.71 2.42 1.98 2.44 1.76 2.16
N = 40, ni = 4 unstratified RE stratified empirical SEσy γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂10.6 0.75 1.06 0.93 1.05 0.91 1.031.2 0.75 1.07 0.94 1.07 0.92 1.042.2 0.78 1.11 0.96 1.11 0.94 1.083.2 0.83 1.18 1.01 1.18 0.98 1.154.2 0.88 1.24 1.03 1.24 1.01 1.21
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Sim II results: variance components
Table: N = 10, ni = 4; residual error variance
unstratified random effects strat residual error strat both stratσd σ̂y σ̂y σ̂y1(2.2) σ̂y2(4.2) σ̂y1(2.2) σ̂y2(4.2)
0.6 3.2 3.1 2.1 4.0 2.0 3.91.2 3.2 3.2 2.1 4.1 2.1 3.92.2 3.2 3.2 2.1 4.1 2.1 4.03.2 3.3 3.3 2.1 4.1 2.2 3.94.2 3.3 3.3 2.1 4.1 2.3 3.9
Table: N = 10, ni = 4; random effect variance
unstratified random effects strat residual error strat both stratσd σ̂d σ̂d1 σ̂d2 σ̂d σ̂d1 σ̂d20.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.71.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.12.2 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.83.2 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.74.2 4.0 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 3.8
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Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Sim II results: variance components
Table: N = 10, ni = 4; residual error variance
unstratified random effects strat residual error strat both stratσd σ̂y σ̂y σ̂y1(2.2) σ̂y2(4.2) σ̂y1(2.2) σ̂y2(4.2)
0.6 3.2 3.1 2.1 4.0 2.0 3.91.2 3.2 3.2 2.1 4.1 2.1 3.92.2 3.2 3.2 2.1 4.1 2.1 4.03.2 3.3 3.3 2.1 4.1 2.2 3.94.2 3.3 3.3 2.1 4.1 2.3 3.9
Table: N = 10, ni = 4; random effect variance
unstratified random effects strat residual error strat both stratσd σ̂d σ̂d1 σ̂d2 σ̂d σ̂d1 σ̂d20.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.71.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.12.2 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.83.2 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.74.2 4.0 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 3.8
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Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Sim II results: fixed effect standard errors
N = 10,ni = 4 unstratified RE stratified resid strat both strat empirical SEσd γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂10.6 0.56 0.80 0.57 0.82 0.57 1.14 0.53 1.19 0.46 0.681.2 0.71 1.01 0.70 1.02 0.71 1.30 0.70 1.34 0.60 0.892.2 1.06 1.50 1.04 1.50 1.04 1.69 1.04 1.71 0.93 1.343.2 1.46 2.06 1.43 2.06 1.44 2.20 1.43 2.21 1.28 1.854.2 1.88 2.66 1.82 2.66 1.87 2.78 1.82 2.78 1.62 2.38
N = 10,ni = 16 unstratified RE stratified resid strat both strat empirical SEσd γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂10.6 0.35 0.50 0.35 0.50 0.35 0.64 0.34 0.66 0.30 0.441.2 0.56 0.79 0.55 0.80 0.55 0.89 0.55 0.89 0.49 0.712.2 0.98 1.39 0.94 1.39 0.97 1.44 0.95 1.44 0.84 1.243.2 1.42 2.01 1.36 2.01 1.42 2.05 1.36 2.05 1.21 1.804.2 1.83 2.59 1.75 2.59 1.83 2.62 1.75 2.62 1.56 2.32
N = 40,ni = 4 unstratified RE stratified resid strat both strat empirical SEσd γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂10.6 0.27 0.39 0.28 0.39 0.28 0.56 0.28 0.57 0.26 0.381.2 0.36 0.51 0.36 0.51 0.36 0.69 0.36 0.65 0.35 0.492.2 0.54 0.77 0.54 0.77 0.54 0.87 0.54 0.87 0.52 0.753.2 0.75 1.07 0.75 1.06 0.75 1.14 0.75 1.14 0.73 1.044.2 0.96 1.36 0.95 1.36 0.96 1.42 0.98 1.42 0.93 1.33
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Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Sim II results: fixed effect standard errors, cont.
N = 40,ni = 16 unstratified RE stratified resid strat both strat empirical SEσd γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂1 γ̂0 γ̂10.6 0.18 0.25 0.18 0.25 0.18 0.32 0.18 0.32 0.17 0.241.2 0.29 0.41 0.29 0.41 0.29 0.46 0.29 0.46 0.28 0.402.2 0.50 0.71 0.50 0.71 0.50 0.72 0.50 0.74 0.49 0.693.2 0.72 1.02 0.72 1.02 0.72 1.04 0.72 1.04 0.70 0.994.2 0.93 1.32 0.93 1.32 0.93 1.34 0.93 1.34 0.90 1.29
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Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Outline
1 Introduction
2 Extending the basic model
3 Simulation
4 Analytical Explanation
5 Summary
6 Extra Slides
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Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Standard error calculation
Var(
γ̂0γ̂1
)=
(N
∑i=1
X ′i WiXi
)−1
Wi = Vi−1,Vi = ZiDZ ′i +σ
2y
calculate for the correct modelassess impact of model mis-specification
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Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Standard error calculation
Var(
γ̂0γ̂1
)=
(N
∑i=1
X ′i WiXi
)−1
Wi = Vi−1,Vi = ZiDZ ′i +σ
2y
calculate for the correct modelassess impact of model mis-specification
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Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Standard error calculation - Sim I
Placebo Group, suppose ni = 2:
X ′i WiXi =
(1 10 0
)(σ2
d1 +σ2y σ2
d1σ2
d1 σ2d1 +σ2
y
)−1(1 10 0
)=
2K1
(σ2
y 00 0
)Treatment Group, suppose ni = 2:
X ′i WiXi =
(1 11 1
)(σ2
d2 +σ2y σ2
d2σ2
d2 σ2d2 +σ2
y
)−1(1 11 1
)=
2K2
(σ2
y σ2y
σ2y σ2
y
)Ki = 2σ2
diσ2y +σ4
y
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Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Standard error calculation - Sim I
(N
∑i=1
X ′i WiXi
)−1
=
(N/2
∑i=1
X ′i WiXi +N
∑i=N/2+1
X ′i WiXi
)−1
=
[NK1
(σ2
y 00 0
)+
NK1
(σ2
y σ2y
σ2y σ2
y
)]−1
=1N
K1σ2
y−K1
σ2y
−K1σ2
y
K2σ2
y+ K2
σ2y
⇒ Var(γ̂0) = 1
N (σ2y +2σ2
d1)
⇒ Var(γ̂1) = 2N (σ2
y +σ2d1 +σ2
d2)
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Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Standard error calculation - Sim I
General result:
Var(γ̂0) = 2N (
σ2y
ni+σ2
d1)
What happens with unstratified model? resid-strat?
Upward bias in random effect variance⇒ increased SE
What happens with both-strat model?
Split data explanation
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Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Standard error calculation - Sim I
General result:
Var(γ̂0) = 2N (
σ2y
ni+σ2
d1)
What happens with unstratified model? resid-strat?
Upward bias in random effect variance⇒ increased SE
What happens with both-strat model?
Split data explanation
![Page 55: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Standard error calculation - Sim I
General result:
Var(γ̂0) = 2N (
σ2y
ni+σ2
d1)
What happens with unstratified model? resid-strat?
Upward bias in random effect variance⇒ increased SE
What happens with both-strat model?
Split data explanation
![Page 56: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Standard error calculation - Sim I
General result:
Var(γ̂0) = 2N (
σ2y
ni+σ2
d1)
What happens with unstratified model? resid-strat?
Upward bias in random effect variance⇒ increased SE
What happens with both-strat model?
Split data explanation
![Page 57: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Standard error calculation - Sim I
General result:
Var(γ̂0) = 2N (
σ2y
ni+σ2
d1)
What happens with unstratified model? resid-strat?
Upward bias in random effect variance⇒ increased SE
What happens with both-strat model?
Split data explanation
![Page 58: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Standard error calculation - Sim I
General result:
Var(γ̂0) = 2N (
σ2y
ni+σ2
d1)
What happens with unstratified model? resid-strat?
Upward bias in random effect variance⇒ increased SE
What happens with both-strat model?
Split data explanation
![Page 59: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Standard error calculation - Sim I
General result:
Var(γ̂1) = 2N (2σ2
yni
+σ2d1 +σ2
d2)
What happens with unstratified model? resid-strat?
Any bias cancels out due to summation
What happens with both-strat model?
Split data explanation
![Page 60: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Standard error calculation - Sim I
General result:
Var(γ̂1) = 2N (2σ2
yni
+σ2d1 +σ2
d2)
What happens with unstratified model? resid-strat?
Any bias cancels out due to summation
What happens with both-strat model?
Split data explanation
![Page 61: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Standard error calculation - Sim I
General result:
Var(γ̂1) = 2N (2σ2
yni
+σ2d1 +σ2
d2)
What happens with unstratified model? resid-strat?
Any bias cancels out due to summation
What happens with both-strat model?
Split data explanation
![Page 62: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Standard error calculation - Sim I
General result:
Var(γ̂1) = 2N (2σ2
yni
+σ2d1 +σ2
d2)
What happens with unstratified model? resid-strat?
Any bias cancels out due to summation
What happens with both-strat model?
Split data explanation
![Page 63: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Standard error calculation - Sim I
General result:
Var(γ̂1) = 2N (2σ2
yni
+σ2d1 +σ2
d2)
What happens with unstratified model? resid-strat?
Any bias cancels out due to summation
What happens with both-strat model?
Split data explanation
![Page 64: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Standard error calculation - Sim II
General result:
Var(γ̂0) = 2N (
σ2y1ni
+σ2d )
What happens with unstratified model? RE-stratified model?
Largely unaffected
What happens with both-strat model?
Split data explanation
![Page 65: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Standard error calculation - Sim II
General result:
Var(γ̂0) = 2N (
σ2y1ni
+σ2d )
What happens with unstratified model? RE-stratified model?
Largely unaffected
What happens with both-strat model?
Split data explanation
![Page 66: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Standard error calculation - Sim II
General result:
Var(γ̂0) = 2N (
σ2y1ni
+σ2d )
What happens with unstratified model? RE-stratified model?
Largely unaffected
What happens with both-strat model?
Split data explanation
![Page 67: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Standard error calculation - Sim II
General result:
Var(γ̂0) = 2N (
σ2y1ni
+σ2d )
What happens with unstratified model? RE-stratified model?
Largely unaffected
What happens with both-strat model?
Split data explanation
![Page 68: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Standard error calculation - Sim II
General result:
Var(γ̂1) = 2N (
σ2y1ni
+σ2
y1ni
+2σ2d )
What happens with unstratified model? RE-stratified model?
Largely unaffected as resid error estimates unaffected
What happens with both-strat model?
Split data explanation
![Page 69: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Standard error calculation - Sim II
General result:
Var(γ̂1) = 2N (
σ2y1ni
+σ2
y1ni
+2σ2d )
What happens with unstratified model? RE-stratified model?
Largely unaffected as resid error estimates unaffected
What happens with both-strat model?
Split data explanation
![Page 70: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/70.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Standard error calculation - Sim II
General result:
Var(γ̂1) = 2N (
σ2y1ni
+σ2
y1ni
+2σ2d )
What happens with unstratified model? RE-stratified model?
Largely unaffected as resid error estimates unaffected
What happens with both-strat model?
Split data explanation
![Page 71: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/71.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Standard error calculation - Sim II
General result:
Var(γ̂1) = 2N (
σ2y1ni
+σ2
y1ni
+2σ2d )
What happens with unstratified model? RE-stratified model?
Largely unaffected as resid error estimates unaffected
What happens with both-strat model?
Split data explanation
![Page 72: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/72.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Outline
1 Introduction
2 Extending the basic model
3 Simulation
4 Analytical Explanation
5 Summary
6 Extra Slides
![Page 73: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/73.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Key Points
Heterogeneity in random effects and/or residual error variance
What happens when model is misspecified?Effect on variance components estimatesEffect on shrinkage and random effects estimatesEffect on fixed effects SE
Future directions
multivariate mixed model
One dependent variable, two groups, N subjectsTwo variables, one group, N subjects
![Page 74: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/74.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Key Points
Heterogeneity in random effects and/or residual error variance
What happens when model is misspecified?Effect on variance components estimatesEffect on shrinkage and random effects estimatesEffect on fixed effects SE
Future directions
multivariate mixed modelOne dependent variable, two groups, N subjectsTwo variables, one group, N subjects
![Page 75: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/75.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
References
Bates, D. (2008). http://www.r-project.org/. The lme4 Package.
Brown, R. and Prescott, H. (2006). Applied Mixed Models in Medicine, New York: Wiley & Sons, 2nd Edition.
Bulter, S. and Louis, T. (1992). Random effects models with nonparametric priors Statistics in Medicine, 11:1981–2000.Brant, L.J., Sheng, C.H., Morrell, C.H., Verbeke, G., Lesaffre, E., Carter, H.B. (2003). Screening for prostatecancer using random-effects models Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 166(1): 51–62.
Gelman, A. and Hill, J. (2007). Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models, NewYork: Cambridge.
Littell, R., Milliken, G., Stroup, W., Wolfinger, R., and Schabenberge, O. (2006). SAS for Mixed Models,Cary, NC: SAS Institute, Inc., 2nd ed.
Magder, L. and Zeger, S. (1996). A Smooth Nonparametric Estimate of a Mixing Distribution Using Mixturesof Gaussians Journal of the American Statistical Association, 91: 1141–1151.
Marshall, G. and Baron, A.E. (2000). Linear discriminant models for unbalanced longitudinal data Statisticsin Medicine, 19: 1969–1981.
Preston, R.A., Afshartous, D. and Alonso, A. (2007). Effects of Selective versus NonselectiveCyclooxygenase Inhibition on Dynamic Renal Potassium Excretion: A Randomized Trial. ClinicalPharmacology and Therapeutics, 84(2): 208-211.
Snijders, T.A.B and Bosker, R.J. (1999). Multilevel Analysis, London: SAGE.
Verbeke, G. and Molenberghs, G. (2000). Linear Mixed Models for Longitudinal Data, New York: Springer.
Verbeke, G. and Lesaffre, E. (1996). A linear mixed model with heterogeneity in the random effectspopulation. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 91: 217-221.
Verbeke, G. and Lesaffre, E. (1997). The effect of misspecifying the random effects distribution in linearmixed models for longitudinal data. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 23: 541-556.
Zeger, S. and Liang, K. (1986). Longitudinal data analysis using generalized linear models, Biometrika, 73:13-22.
![Page 76: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/76.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Outline
1 Introduction
2 Extending the basic model
3 Simulation
4 Analytical Explanation
5 Summary
6 Extra Slides
![Page 77: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/77.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Potassium Handling Study
6 repeated measures of potassium excretion on placebofollowed by 6 repeated measures on treatment; Yij is the j thmeasurement on the i th individual, tij represents time
5 random intercept models, different variance assumptions:M1: Common random effects varianceM2: Random treatment effectM3: Stratified random effect varianceM4: Stratified random effect and residual error varianceM5: Only stratified residual error varianceestimation via restricted maximum likelihood (REML);lmer R package (Bates 2008)
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Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Model Equations
M1:
Yij =
{(γ0 +bi)+β1tij +β2t2
ij + εij , if placebo(γ0 +bi)+ γ1 +(β1 +β3)tij +(β2 +β4)t2
ij + εij , if drug
bi ∼ N(0,σ2d ),εij ∼ N(0,σ2
y ).
M2:
Yij =
{(γ0 +b0i)+β1tij +β2t2
ij + εij , if placebo(γ0 +b0i)+(γ1 +b1i)+(β1 +β3)tij +(β2 +β4)t2
ij + εij , if drug
b0i ∼ N(0,σ2d̃ ),b1i ∼ N(0,σ2
T ).
M3:
Yij =
{(γ0 +bi1)+β1tij +β2t2
ij + εij , if placebo(γ0 +bi2)+ γ1 +(β1 +β3)tij +(β2 +β4)t2
ij + εij , if drug
}bik ∼ N(0,σ2
dk ),k = 1,2.
![Page 79: Mixed models with variance heterogeneitybiostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/wiki/pub/Main/...IntroductionExtending the basic modelSimulationAnalytical ExplanationSummaryExtra Slides Mixed models](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042913/5f4aa1267365df7b802ed848/html5/thumbnails/79.jpg)
Introduction Extending the basic model Simulation Analytical Explanation Summary Extra Slides
Estimation results
M1 M2 M3 M4 M5log-likelihood -1398.44 -1397.31 -1397.31 -1375.97 -1377.60Fixed Effects:γ0 (intercept) 67.3 (25.6) 67.3 (26.6) 67.3 (26.6) 67.3 (31.5) 67.3 (32.4)γ1 (drug) 25.6 (35.0) 25.6 (35.9) 25.6 (35.9) 25.6 (35.9) 25.6 (34.9)β1 (linear) 117.0 (23.3) 117.0 (22.8) 117.0 (22.8) 117.0 (28.9) 117.0 (29.4)β2 (quadratic) -20.0 (4.4) -20.0 (4.3) -20.0 (4.3) -20.0 (5.6) -20.0 (5.6)β3 (linear×Drug) -78.1 (33.0) -78.1 (32.3) -78.1 (32.3) -78.1 (32.3) -78.1 (32.9)β3(quadratic×Drug) 14.9 (6.3) 14.9 (6.2) 14.9 (6.2) 14.9 (6.2) 14.9 (6.3)Variance Components:√
Var(bi ) (intercept) 28.77 36.97√Var(b0i ) (intercept all) 47.18√Var(b1i ) (intercept drug) 46.18
corr(b0i ,b1i ) -0.86√Var(bi1) (intercept placebo) 47.19 29.09√Var(bi2) (intercept drug) 24.20 44.35
corr(bi1 ,bi2) 0.29 0.265√Var(εij ) (error all) 119.32 116.93 116.93√Var(εij1) (error placebo) 148.21 150.49√Var(εij2) (error drug) 73.34 75.28