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PROJECT EVALUATION (1.011)Spring 2011Lecture 10Instructors: Professor Joseph Sussman
Carl MartlandTeaching Assistants:
Nihit JainEdna Edzell
Civil and Environmental Engineering
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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What is HSR
Definitions vary ~ 180- 200 mph is the international standard formaximum speed
Usually fewer stops as compare to conventionalrail
Often (but not always) city center to city center--thecompetitive edge with air
Steel wheels on steel railsBut some talk of HSGT (high speed ground
transportation) to include MAGLEV
Civil and Environmental Engineering
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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Why HSR I Motivation
Economic growthEnhanced productivityThe mega-region idea-- labor
markets, commercial markets Social integration Environmental/energy benefits Jobs: economic stimulus
Civil and Environmental Engineering
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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Why HSR II Congested Corridors
The idea-- you simply need the capacity and airand highway are congested already Example: The Northeast Corridor in the U.S.
connecting Boston-- New York--Washington I-95 Logan in Boston, JFK, LaGuardia,
Newark in New York, and ReaganNational, Dulles in Washington
Civil and Environmental Engineering
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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Why not HSR? Those against say
VERY EXPENSIVE both to build and to operate Ridership VERY uncertain Benefits are overstated and costs understated Economic growth is really just a redistribution of
economic activity-- no net growth Not clear that environment/energy benefits will
actually happen
Civil and Environmental Engineering
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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Where HSR competes well The sweet spot
~ 150 miles to ~ 600 milesAt shorter distances, auto is competitiveAt longer distances, air is competitive
Civil and Environmental Engineering
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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Deciding about HSR Run the process
Costs Benefits Stakeholders Financing Consider alternatives
Civil and Environmental Engineering
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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A Framework for ProjectEvaluation
From Martland
Project ID
Analysis of Alternatives
Accessing and Comparing Alternatives
Implementation
Ongoing Evaluation
Civil and Environmental Engineering
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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Infrastructure Issues Where to get the $? What are the political concerns?
Whose district or state benefits
Environmental justice
What are the costs and benefits?
Who bears the costs?
Who reaps the benefits?
Is the project the best use of the $?
What are the environmental impacts?
What are the social impacts?
Civil and Environmental Engineering
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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HSR Issues/Questions I New ROW vs. upgrading what we have?
The idea of incremental HSR -- upgrade current lines to provide ~125mph service
Limit to just passengers vs. have a hybridsystem with both passenger and freight
Civil and Environmental Engineering
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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HSR Issues/Questions II Develop your own technology vs. Buy it abroad
Japan France Germany Italy Korea Taiwan China United States
Civil and Environmental Engineering
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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HSR Issues/Questions III Accessing the HSR station City Center or locate elsewhere-- pros and cons The last 20 miles
Civil and Environmental Engineering
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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HSR around the Globe Why has HSR been developed at so many places
around the Globe but not in the U.S.?
Civil and Environmental Engineering
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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Source: United States Federal Government.
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Source: United States Federal Government.
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Reference: HSR in America, by America2050
America2050 is an advocacy group That is in contrast with scholarly literature
GivoniAlbalate and Bel
Civil and Environmental Engineering
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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Findings from HSR in America, by America2050 I
Where HSR can work Corridors of 100-600 miles Major employment and population centers In the US, 11 megaregions, with 70% of US
population and regional GDP is located
Civil and Environmental Engineering
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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Findings from HSR in America, by America2050 II
Where HSR can work Promising short corridors, possible as part of a
longer corridor New York- Philadelphia Los Angeles- San Diego Chicago- Milwaukee
Civil and Environmental Engineering
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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Findings from HSR in America, by America2050 III
Where HSR can work Very large city (or cities) are powerful
generators of rail traffic on a corridor with
medium and smaller cities-- the anchor tenantidea
Likely to generate more traffic than corridors ofthe same overall population with just medium
cities
Civil and Environmental Engineering
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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Findings from HSR in America, by America2050 IV
Where HSR can work Workforce composition is important
Knowledge workers more likely to travel Industrial areas generate less passenger
traffic than knowledge industries such asfinance
Civil and Environmental Engineering
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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HSR in the U.S. Federal funds Spread out over a number of states The hope: the states and the private
sector will partner California Wisconsin
Ohio
Civil and Environmental Engineering
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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HSR in the U.S. II
The reality: a lot of uncertainty Costs--these are BIG projects
Benefits-- depends on uncertain ridership Can the financing be cobbled together?
Civil and Environmental Engineering
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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HSR in the U.S. III A key question: Is this a set of projects or aprogram?
Compare and contrast with the Interstate System
Civil and Environmental Engineering
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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Source: United States Federal Government.
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Source: United States Federal Government.
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Lisboa
Vigo
Braga
Salamanca
Aveiro
Coimbra
Leiria
Oeste
Porto
Huelva
Faro
Elvas/Badajozvora
Valena
Image by MIT OpenCourseWare.
Civil and Environmental EngineeringMassachusetts Institute of Technology
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Port-Vigo
Aveiro-Salamanca
Lisboa-Madrid
Faro-Hueiva
Vigo
Braga
Salamanca
Aveiro
Coimbra
Leiria
Oeste
Lisboa
Porto
Madrid
Huelva
Faro
Elvas/Badajoz
Porto-Madrid
Aprox. 2h45m
Lisboa-MadridAprox. 2h45m
vora
Valena
Image by MIT OpenCourseWare.
Civil and Environmental EngineeringMassachusetts Institute of Technology
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High Speed Railroad Map of Europe removed due to copyright restrictions. This image can beviewed on Wikipedia: http://da.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fil:High_Speed_Railroad_Map_Europe_2009.gif.
Civil and Environmental EngineeringMassachusetts Institute of Technology
http://da.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fil:High_Speed_Railroad_Map_Europe_2009.gifhttp://da.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fil:High_Speed_Railroad_Map_Europe_2009.gif -
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Applications in Spain m(3/5)High speed rail - AVE
High Speed Railroad Map of Spain removed due to copyright restrictions. This image can beviewed on Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:HighSpeedSpain-February2008.png.
Civil and Environmental EngineeringMassachusetts Institute of Technology
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High Speed Railroad Map of Japan removed due to copyright restrictions. This image can beviewed on Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Shinkansen_map_20110312_en.png.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Shinkansen_map_20110312_en.pnghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Shinkansen_map_20110312_en.png -
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1.011 Project Evaluation
Spring 2011
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