Middle Powers During Great Power Middle Powers During Great Power Transitions: China’s Rise and the Transitions: China’s Rise and the Future of Canada-U.S. RelationsFuture of Canada-U.S. Relations

Bruce Gilley, Portland State UniversityBruce Gilley, Portland State University

China’s Rising PowerChina’s Rising Power

Relative Shares of World GDP (%)

CHINA

CHINA

CANADA

Power vs. PurposePower vs. Purpose

Power Transitions• China seeks to expand its

global influence using military, economic, cultural, and political power

• Canada-U.S. conflict

Purpose Transitions• China seeks to revise

dominant global liberal norms in security, governance, and trade

• Canada-U.S. cooperation

Power Transition in East AsiaPower Transition in East Asia

Investment to/from Canada (China Investment to/from Canada (China as % of Japan)as % of Japan)

China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan-born China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan-born population (% total population)population (% total population)

Similarity of UN VotingSimilarity of UN Voting

CANADA-U.S.

CANADA-CHINA