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Breakout session
14th November 2019
The future of mobility is NOW!
McKinsey & Company 3
AgendaPhasing for our session
Opening comments and introductions
Thoughts from Laurel Powers-Freeling, Uber, and Q&A
Thoughts from Shashi Verma, Transport for London, and Q&A
Panel discussion and Q&A
—Laurel, Shashi, Swarna Ramanathan (McKinsey) and James Stamp (National Express)
McKinsey & Company4McKinsey & Company
Seamless mobilityBaseline Business as usual Unconstrained autonomy
Baseline city faces
challenges today, with trip
times averaging over 30
minutes, congestion rising,
and air quality challenges
Urbanisation and population
growth increase passenger
km demand, with limited
regulatory/city government
shaping of the future. Pace
of electrification and
automation disappoints.
Electrification and
automation take off, but
regulators and city
governments fail to keep up.
Robo-taxis take a greater
share than AV shuttles,
contributing to congestion.
Cities encourage the use of
shared AVs through
regulation and incentives.
Residents ‘mix and match’
rail transit and low-cost, point
to point autonomous travel in
AV shuttles easily
SOURCE: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility
How could the future look in 2030?
10%10%15%Congestion, time per trip,
delta from baseline
McKinsey & Company 5
AgendaPhasing for our session
Opening comments and introductions
Thoughts from Laurel Powers-Freeling, Uber, and Q&A
Thoughts from Shashi Verma, Transport for London, and Q&A
Panel discussion and Q&A
—Laurel, Shashi, Swarna Ramanathan (McKinsey) and James Stamp (National Express)
McKinsey & Company 6
AgendaPhasing for our session
Opening comments and introductions
Thoughts from Laurel Powers-Freeling, Uber, and Q&A
Thoughts from Shashi Verma, Transport for London, and Q&A
Panel discussion and Q&A
—Laurel, Shashi, Swarna Ramanathan (McKinsey) and James Stamp (National Express)
EVERY JOURNEY MATTERS
Innovating for citiesShashi Verma
Director of Strategy and Chief Technology Officer
Transport for London
EVERY JOURNEY MATTERS
What are the growth markets for transport in London
Public transport has seen very substantial growth in London, removing the needs for car trips
Cycling has seen the fastest growth, starting from a small base
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
Ind
ex:
20
01
= 1
00
Rail Underground Bus Car driver Population Cycle
Growth in selected modes of travel
Car36%
Walk24%
Bus (including tram)14%
Rail11%
Underground/DLR11%
Cycle2%
Taxi1%
Motorcycle1%
How do people travel?
Most innovation talk is about areas that don’t matter much for how cities work.
The only significant exception is autonomous vehicles, as and when they are made viable
Share of all trips by mode of travelTotal = 26.9 million trips per day
What drives investment?
Innovation needs to focus on not just what is cool but also what is useful. There is no money in being cool alone.
Cool
Useful
Rail
Buses
e-ScooterDrones
Autonomous vehicles
McKinsey & Company 11
AgendaPhasing for our session
Opening comments and introductions
Thoughts from Laurel Powers-Freeling, Uber, and Q&A
Thoughts from Shashi Verma, Transport for London, and Q&A
Panel discussion and Q&A
—Laurel, Shashi, Swarna Ramanathan (McKinsey) and James Stamp (National Express)
McKinsey & Company12McKinsey & Company
What role can we all play in creating seamless mobility?
Optimise supply Optimise demand
Shift to shared modes
▪ Dedicated lanes for shared vehicles
▪ Bikes and e-scooters for last-mile
▪ Active management
of the for-hire fleet
Shifting demand off-peak
▪ Congestion pricing
▪ Commercial deliveries
Optimise rail
▪ Autonomous train operations
▪ Advanced signaling
▪ Predictive maintenance
Optimise road modes
▪ Intelligent traffic systems
▪ Smart parking
▪ AV-readiness
Improve sustainability
Electrify transit Low-emission zones
McKinsey & Company13McKinsey & CompanySOURCE: McKinsey (FoM 3 Urban Mobility Model). Figures are rounded to nearest 5%.
5%
125
40%
25%
35%
35%
20%
115
Baseline
20%
40%
5%
Business as usual
urbanization
5%
15%
25%
10%
Unconstrained
autonomy
40%
5%
5%
10%
20%
40%
Seamless mobility
1001
130
The modal share by scenario for a city like London
10%
Urban leaders and private companies have an opportunity to actively shape the transit system over the next decade, reducing
congestion by 10% from today even while accommodating 30% more traffic
Train
Bus2
Car
Walk/bike
Amount of mobility in example dense metropolitan area, Passenger km/yr1
10%15%
AV Shuttle
Robotaxi
Private Car
Walk/bike
Train
1 Mobility demand indexed as baseline = 100
Congestion,
time per trip