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Data collection
Busways
There are few cities with operating busways, and all the cities with busways systems
are in Latin America, with Brazil prominent. Busways usually require the reallocation
of existing roadspace together with traffic management in the corridor, as a result of
which bus passengers benefit from increased speeds. The impact on other traffic is
a matter of policy and design, busways may increase congestion for other traffic, but
they may also reduce it by channeling traffic more efficiently.
There are two forms of busways, open in which buses !oin and lea"e, pro"idingcon"enience for passengers who do not need to change bus# and trun$%and%feeder
which operates li$e light rail and requires interchange, often in"ol"ing through
tic$eting and requiring more sophisticated institutional arrangements. The
ad"antage is the additional operational control and capacity, which is created.
Busway output depends greatly on road networ$ configuration, !unction spacing and
stop spacing. &t typically has been demonstrated to be high at about '(,((( pphpd at
)( $mph on arterial corridors and '*%'+ $mph on urban corridors for a '%lane each
way busway. &f pro"ision for bus o"erta$ing at stops is pro"ided, passenger
throughputs of )(,((( pphpd ha"e been demonstrated and schemes with )%lanes
each way are reported with e"en higher passenger flows.
hile implementation is quite demanding -in terms of institutional co%ordination and
traffic engineeringcontrol s$ills/, the e"idence is that thereafter the operational
performance is robust. 0ost is relati"ely low 1 the infrastructure is typically 234 '%
'.5mn$m and the all%in cost including buses at the top end of the range is
234*mn$m. A ma!or ad"antage of busways is their flexibility in implementation and
operation. hile continuous, segregated busways are desirable, short discontinuities-where the road cross%section does not allow implementation/ can be o"ercome
using traffic management techniques. Busways can be implemented incrementally
as funds allow, and their performance can be upgraded o"er time.
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LRT1 this technology is widely $nown in many de"eloped cities and transitional
economies as trams, but these do not tend to carry large numbers of people at
speed, which is the required role of 67T in larger de"eloping cities. hile much is
$nown about them, the ma!or issue concerns their ability to perform this role. e
ha"e re"iewed the e"idence, and concluded that the performance is li$ely to be
bounded by a capacity of about '),(((pphpd and an a"erage operating speed of
)($ph. This is lower than the capacity of many busways, and it may be wondered
why this should be. &t arises for two reasons8
L7T achie"es high speed by using a signaling system to a"oid bunching, and by
obtaining priority at traffic signal%controlled !unctions o"er other traffic# and it
achie"es high capacity by ha"ing large "ehicles which ta$e ad"antage of the signals.&n practice the distance between signals defines the maximum "ehicle size, and the
need to pro"ide for crossing traffic limits the number of "ehicles per hour.
3econdly, L7T systems are operationally "ulnerable to the e"eryday e"ents that
happen in the centre of de"eloping cities. hether this is !unctions being partly
bloc$ed, or road maintenance wor$, or a brea$down, or an accident, while bus
systems are often able to get round the problem -they can o"erta$e, lea"e the
busways etc/, L7T is not.
This capacity problem becomes an issue in the large corridors of the biggest cities,
but many cities are not large and there are many corridors where this is not a
problem. Then, L7T is often considered a more affordable alternati"e to a metro,
while ha"ing the up%mar$et and green image which busways ha"e so far usually not
had. &n particular, L7T is often considered to be compatible with city centre
pedestrianised en"ironments, contributing with complementary measures to more
li"able cities.
Metros1 are widely $nown. They alone of the options can carry "ery large
passenger flows, indeed se"eral times more than any other option, and this, together
with their operating speed which deri"es from complete segregation, underlies their
strategic impacts upon city structure. Alone of the options, they may decongest the
city corridor significantly. But they come at a "ery high cost, both capital and
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operating, and they can be ris$y8 much needs to go right for a pro!ect to be
successful, and a bad mista$e can spell disaster. &n other words, particular care is
required in considering and de"eloping them. &ntegration with the bus system is
particularly necessary to metro "iability, and often difficult to achie"e.
Suburban Rail1 most cities ha"e, or ha"e had suburban rail lines, and often their
apparent potential appears to be under%utilized. 3ometimes this is appearance, and
in reality the line no longer ser"es passengers existing tra"el requirements, or it
cannot be upgraded without disrupting other traffic unacceptably, or the right%of%way
cannot be secured -it may be sub!ect to frequent, uncontrolled le"el crossings, or be
encumbered with squatters who cannot be re%housed/. 3ometimes there can be
opportunities, but the railway institutions pre"ent suburban rail ser"ices de"elopingeffecti"ely 1 this is common, and a separate organization is required, able to
manage the suburban system as a separate business. 3ometimes too there are
problems of nonstandard technology, or of terminal capacity in the city centre.
Applicability of the MRT Options:
e attempt to identify the circumstances when the options should be considered
and may ha"e application. e would emphasize that it is not possible to draw
simplistic conclusions, because e"ery city is different, and requires its own study of
the potentially realistic options. But this section pro"ides some context, and should
help narrow down the potentially applicable options, based on the a"ailable
e"idence.
Busways1 where they are politically acceptable, busways should often be the first
step in 67T system de"elopment, and for many cities they will remain the 67T
system for the foreseeable future. e ha"e seen that they can 1 in the right
en"ironment, effect ma!or impro"ements in accessibility, benefiting most of the citys
population, and particularly the poor. And they can achie"e this quic$ly and
incrementally as conditions and funding allow.
The right en"ironment is howe"er quite demanding to achie"e. &t requires effecti"e
go"ernment institutions, access to a well%de"eloped traffic planning management
capability -this may be bought in initially/, busparatransit operations which can and
should be restructured, and the road space for busway de"elopment.
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There is a broad raft of possible busway concepts, suited to differing situations. 6ost
in operation are basic and we ha"e seen these ha"e sometimes been criticised for
their ad"erse en"ironmental and land use impacts. They can and should be
designed to remedy these problems, creating a better image and stretching their
role and applicability.
LRT1 is li$ely to be de"eloped in cities where existing tram operations exist, which
may be cost%effecti"ely enhanced, and in cities where en"ironmental issues are
uppermost and there is a percei"ed need to attract car users -it may be the
en"ironmentally%acceptable component of a pac$age of measures designed to
create a li"eable city for example/. But where the core requirements are operationaleffecti"eness, busways are li$ely to be superior, and cost less.
Metros 1are a different order of challenge, cost and ris$.. hen they are well
de"eloped, we ha"e seen that they can be rational economic in"estments. These
pro!ects need to fulfill demanding requirements to be !ustified. 6ost of the following
conditions are considered to be necessary.
0orridor size % high existing public transport flows down the main corridor
1 of the order of '(%'*,((( passengers per hour per direction 0ity income % city incomes which are not low -typically at least ',9(( 23
dollars per person/
:rowth prospects % prospects for sustained growth, notably economic
growth
0ity centre growth % an expanding centre, preferably of a
nationalpro"incial capital city
A low%cost metro alignment
;ares policy % a fares policy on metro and bus systems to encourage
ridership yet limit the need for financial support
0ity management % go"ernment institutions which were stable and ha"e
demonstrated competence, and
6etro management % strong, largely autonomous management, with clear
ob!ecti"es
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&t follows that metros are most li$ely to be applicable to ser"e the largest corridors of
the biggest and more affluent de"eloping cities.
Suburban Rail1 we ha"e seen that much should be possible to impro"e suburban
rail operations, when institutional separation and management autonomy can be
created.
Incremental Development1 we ha"e concluded that it will be desirable to de"elop
the 67T system incrementally, to meet operational and en"ironmental requirements.
There is some lumpiness is some 67T technology -e.g. rail depots/, which pro"ides
some constraints to what is possible. But o"erall there is a wide raft of possibilities.
Role of the rivate Sector1 we expect there to be a substantially larger, and
different role for the pri"ate sector, with considerable potential for inno"ation.
Applicability in
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TABL> '.)
7>:&?=AL 67T 3T7AT>:@
olicy !ramewor"
6ass transit is recognised as central to the sustainability of large cities, indeed itsdeployment may enable cities to achie"e differing le"els of sustainability. 3ingapore
is an example of a city that has applied 67T as part of a comprehensi"e
de"elopment and transport strategy, the core of which is the control of traffic
congestion. 67T forms the centre of a quality public transport system, which is
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considered to be necessary to secure acceptance of traffic restraint measures. &n
other large cities such as 3eoul and 3ao aulo, the absolute control of traffic
congestion -as opposed to mitigating its worst effects/ is not considered realistic.
ere the role of 67T is to allow the city to continue to function as a city, and the
0B< to continue to expand 1 to allow its economies of scale to be secured. &n yet
other cities, where 67T is not de"eloped and traffic congestion ta$es hold, the city
brea$s down into "illages, the 0B< cannot grow and the scale economies of the
city are lost.
&n most de"eloping cities, roadspace is scarce and public transport needs to share
the same corridor as other traffic. >"en for metros, where under grounding in theory
frees their alignment from the geography of the street system, in practice alignmentsare usually under ma!or highway corridors -and sometimes under actual barriers to
mo"ement, such as ri"ers and hills/. 3o, in de"eloping cities, 67T is often located
down ma!or road corridors. This compares with cities where a more de"eloped
networ$, perhaps amplified by the de"elopment of an urban expressway networ$,
permits a hierarchy of roads, with public transport and other traffic concentrated
down different corridors.
&ts role as a minimum is to pro"ide for the tra"el needs of citizens and business.
3ometimes the role can be much more than this, to pro"ide the basis for a transport
strategy which can control traffic congestion, mitigating its attendant costs, and
creating a sustainable city form. &n particular 67T is often inextricably lin$ed to the
future of the central business district -0B
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>n"ironmental sustainability8 congestion, pollution, sprawling de"elopment and
the exhaustion of resources all threaten a sustainable future.
;inancial sustainability8 the sector finances must be put on a firm footing
This study as$s how 67T policy can achie"e public policy ob!ecti"es, recognizing its
o"erall central role in transport strategy. The public policy ob!ecti"es are classified as
follows8
6acro 1 economic8 metros in particular are hugely costly, and the scale of this
in"estment can ha"e impact significantly on the allocation of public funds,with
macro%economic effects
6icro 1economic8 the con"entional assessment of the worth of a pro!ect as
measured by its economic "iability 3ocial 1 there is a strong concern that policies including 67T should assist the
urban poor, and other disad"antaged groups.
Land use n"ironmental 1 67T can ha"e direct and indirect externalities, such as air
pollution, se"erance, "isual impact etc
The diagnosis analyses these $ey issues related to 67T systems for de"eloping
cities. This concern8
The scale of challenge in"ol"ed in establishing and de"eloping any 67T
systems.
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of B?T concessioning -applied in Asia/, and suburban railmetro
concessioning and pri"atisation -mainly applied in Latin America/
Affordability and the ri"ate 3ector 1 this see$s to clarify the appropriate role
of go"ernment and the pri"ate sector, and draw realistic conclusions about
the scale of public sector support and pri"ate sector funding.
ublic transport integration 1 identifies the issues and options.
!OR#$ASTI%& MRT IMA$TS
Accuracy of !orecasts
The re"iew of a"ailable research has highlighted unambiguously the poor record of
forecasting the main financial parameters 1 capital cost, construction time, operatingcosts and ridershipre"enues. &t has also demonstrated that this is not confined to
de"eloping cities 1 the 23 experience mirrors that in de"eloping
experience, and is reinforced by much other de"eloped country e"idence.
$ause of oor !orecasts
There ha"e been se"eral re"iews of forecasting -for example, 6ac$ettetal, 'CC9/.
The reasons for poor forecasts may be classified as in"ol"ing political, financial or
technical factors8
olitical !actors 1 new 67T systems, particularly a rail system, are popular with
politicians and the public ali$e. The new system is usually a discrete pro!ect which
can be clearly identified, so that those with an interest in doing so can claim to ha"e
produced a significant achie"ement. &t can be argued that planners are under
pressure from politicians to produce such an attracti"e scheme 1 particularly -the
next point/ if it is paid for by the national go"ernment or by a local tax that has
popular support. &n other words the ratio of local benefits -including those to
politicians/ to local taxation is "ery high.
!inancial !actors 1 ic$rell analysed the reason for the poor forecasting of the
federally%funded 23 systems, and concluded that one reason planners were $een to
de"elop such pro!ects was that most funding came from the federal go"ernment.
6oreo"er, high ridership forecasts led to a costly system, which brought in more
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federal funding. The federal go"ernment also funded most of any financial o"erruns.
&n the 2D, the method of obtaining central go"ernment funding is in respect of non%
user benefits, including congestion relief, de"elopment impacts, reduced accidents
and reduced pollution. 3e"eral of the 2D transit pro!ects funded under this regime
are performing poorly8 ridership has failed to match expectations, and the estimated
non%user benefits are unli$ely to ha"e been achie"ed. 6anchester 6etrolin$ is a
notable success story by comparison.
Technical !actors 1 we consider demand forecasting and cost estimation
separately8
Ahme'aba' ( case stu'y:
The city of Ahmedabad, largest among all cities of :u!arat state, accommodating
about * million people, has a registered "ehicular strength of '.5 6illion. The rate of
growth of "ehicles has been about C to '(E per annum. ublic transport situation
has deteriorated rapidly o"er the past decade. The end result is "isible in terms of
increasing congestion on the city streets and the worsening of air quality.
7ecognizing these problems areas, the 3tate and the 0ity go"ernments ha"e
initiated a series of measures to impro"e urban transport situation in Ahmedabad.
The "arious proposals for the Ahmedabad citys urban transport -67T/ facilities are
as follows in their chronological order8
'. &ntegrated ublic Transit 3ystem pro!ect by :&
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IThe present initiative to develop BRTS is in recognition of the fact that no singlemode will completely serve the mobility needs of the city, and the bus system,both in its basic form and rapid transit form, makes it a critical and majorcomponent in an integrated transit system of any mega city
These efforts recei"e further fillip due to the fact that the state go"ernment hasdeclared year )((* as an 2rban
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The $ity ) &rowth pattern
The city of Ahmedabad was founded in '5'' A< as a walled city on the eastern ban$
of the ri"er 3abarmati, now the se"enth largest metropolis in &ndia and the largest inthe state. The urban agglomeration -2A/ population has increased from G.G' 6illionin 'CC' to 5.* 6illion in )(('. Ahmedabad is the commercial capital of the state.Dnown as the textile capital of &ndia, it is also a ma!or industrial and financial citycontributing about '5E of the total in"estments in all stoc$ exchanges in &ndia andH(E of the total producti"ity of the state.
7eena Lazar, Increasin !esources to Local "overnment in Ahmeda#ad, India$ Local %trateies forAcceleratin %ustaina#ility& Case %tudies of Local "overnment %uccess$ ICLEI %tudy, Canada, 'ay ())(
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#mployment Distribution
The ma!or employment zones in the study area are primarily located in the industrialbelts of =aroda, ?dha" and at"a. ?ld city continues to be a ma!or trading area.
0.:. road and Ashram road ha"e emerged as important commercial hubs in the city.=ow 3: highway and 'G)ft ring road ha"e started showing similar de"elopmenttrends.
Summary
The Ahmedabad 2rban Agglomeration has a population of 5* la$hs -)(('/of which +9 percent of the population is residing within the municipal area.
Ahmedabad has been the primate city of :u!arat, being the largest in terms of thepopulation size. &t presently holds )G percent of states urban population and holding
sixth position in the entire country in terms of population size -)(('/.
The city continues to be relati"ely compact. 3ome industrial acti"ity has spilled o"erto the periphery. 0ontaining sprawl tendency is a necessity. Transit orientedde"elopment needs exploration. 0entral and eastern zones ha"e lost employmentopportunities. ;ocus on these areas would be an additional contribution.
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&t is important to note here that the entire cost required to de"elop such B7T systemis not only for B7T system as such but also to enhance o"erall mobility on thecorridor. The support measures and mechanism discussed so far is primarily aninitial thought. A detailed financial "iability of the pro!ect based on the capital cost,operation F maintenance cost and re"enue through fare box and other means needsto be done in the next step.
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LRTS % ;&=A=0&AL >AL2AT&?= F ;&=A=0&AL A=AL@3&3
;inancial analysis is done based on the passenger traffic forecast for 773 trains.The ;inancial internal rate of return is wor$ed out on the basis of total pro!ect costs
and generation of re"enues.
The costs stream includes8i/ Total pro!ect costii/ @ear%wise additional capital cost required to, cater the incremental trafficiii/ ? F 6 cost of 773 system.
The re"enue stream includes8i/ ;are Box re"enueii/ 7e"enue from other sources e.g.a/ Ad"ertisement
b/ ar$ing rightsc/ roperty de"elopment etc.
&n absence of any data for other re"enue, * E of re"enue from ;are Box collection isassumed in this case.
#$O%OMI$ #*AL+ATIO% ( #conomic Analysis
The economic analysis of the pro!ect is done for both the corridors together asthe traffic demand is wor$ed out for the system as a whole. The analysis iscarried out on the basis of benefits accrued due to the pro!ect by computing the
scenario Iwith pro!ectM and Iwithout pro!ectM.
R#$OMM#%DATIO%S
i/ ;ormation of 3 to be done on priority, so that the pro!ect can be startedimmediately.ii/ Land acquisition has to be gi"en top most priority so that no delay is therein the execution of the pro!ect.iii/ 3ome staff quarters and railway offices falling on the 773 alignment are gettingaffected.riority is to be gi"en for construction of alternati"e accommodation for rehabilitation.
i"/ 3ince construction of ma!or bridges li$e 3abarmati Bridge, Dhari 7i"er would ta$elong time, top most priority has to be gi"en in deciding the design and awarding thecontract for the same."/
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Implementation strate,y an' !inancin, lan
;or the purpose of implementation of pro!ect, it is proposed to form special purposes"ehicles -3/ comprising representati"es from 6inistry of 7ailways -6?7/ and:o"ernment of :u!rat -:?:/. 7ecommended ro!ect financing is on the basis ofdebt8 equity ratio of '8 '.