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Market Metrics for DOE Congestion StudyOverview and Results
Farrokh Rahimi, Ph.D. Vice President, OATI Technical Workshop in Support of the DOE 2009 Congestion Study
Chicago, March 25 - 26, 2009
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Trade SecretThis document and attachments contain confidential and proprietary information of Open Access Technology International, Inc. This information is not to be used, disseminated, distributed, or otherwise transferred without the expressed written permission of Open Access Technology International, Inc.
Proprietary NoticeAll OATI products and services listed are trademarks and service marks of Open Access Technology International, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Topics
• Description of “Market” metrics• Midwest ISO Specific, Market Data, Results,
and Issues• NYISO Specifics, Market Data, Results, and
Issues• PJM Specifics, Market Data, Results, and
Issues• ISONE Specifics, Market Data, Results, and
Issues• Observations and Conclusions
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Main Market Metric Categories
• Congestion Frequency (number of hours transmission constraint was binding in 2007)– Criterion: Non-zero constraint shadow price (SP)– Screening SP Threshold: 5% of Offer Cap ($50/MWh)– Screening Frequency Threshold (20 hours/year); or top 50– Shadow Price “Bin” Break Points
• Negative Shadow Prices: -$500/MWh, -$200/MWh, and -$50/MWh
• Positive Shadow Prices: $50/MW, $200/MWh, and $500/MWh
• Congestion Rent (CR)– Defined for Binding Constraints as Shadow Price * Flow
(or Shadow Price * Constraint Limit)– Where Flow and/or Constraint Limit data were
unavailable, Sum of Shadow Prices for the constraint over the period in question was used as surrogate instead
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• Congestion Component of LMP (LMPCC)– Screening LMPCC Threshold: 2% of Offer Cap ($20/MWh)– Screening Frequency Threshold (20 hours/year); or top 50– LMPCC “Bin” Break Points
• Negative LMPCC: -$20/MWh, -$40/MWh, -$100/MWh• Positive LMPCC: $20/MW, $40/MWh, $100/MWh
• Markets: Day-Ahead (primary for NYISO, PJM, and ISONE); Real-time (primary for MISO)
• Temporal Breakdown – MISO: Annual (peak; off-peak; all hours); February (peak);
April (off-peak); August (peak); October (peak; off-peak)– NYISO: Annual (peak; off-peak; all hours); January (peak);
April (peak); August (peak); October (peak; off-peak)– PJM: Annual (peak; off-peak; all hours); February (peak);
May (off-peak); August (peak); October (off-peak), December (peak)
– ISONE: Annual (peak; off-peak; all hours)
Main Market Metric Categories (continued)
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Data Requirements and Availability
• Shadow Prices– Binding Constraint Shadow Prices (public)– Markets
• Day-Ahead
• Real-Time
• Flows and/or Constraint Limits (for Computation of Congestion Rents)– NYISO , PJM, and SONE
• Unavailable for internal binding constraints
• Used sum of Shadow prices as a supplemental metric
– Midwest ISO• “Commercial Flow” data (not publicly available) was
provided to DOE/OATI for use in this study
• Nevertheless Sum of Shadow Prices is reported here for consistency among markets analyzed
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Data Requirements and Availability (continued)
• LMP Congestion Component (LMPCC)– LMPs and LMP components available (public)
• Day-Ahead (hourly)• Real-Time (hourly average of 5-minute prices)
– PJM: No LMPCC data for January through May 2007. Used approximate back computation
– Using LMP data only for specific Node Types to identify import-limited or export-limited “areas”• Midwest ISO: Aggregates, Zones• New York ISO: Generators, Zones• PJM: Generators, Zones • ISONE: Network Nodes, Zones
– Clustering• Manual clustering algorithm to combine nodes in each node type
category based on proximity of LMPCCs• Need geographical coordinates if must show nodal LMPCC
(clusters) on the map
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Market Metrics Study Results for Midwest ISO
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Summary Statistics – Top 25 Frequently Binding Constraints (Midwest ISO Real-Time Market; 2007)
Binding ConstraintsAnnual Count Min SP Max SP Mean SP Std Dev Sum SP
BLACKO_BEDNGT500_PRNTY_MTSTM500 674 ‐$970.28 ‐$50.12 ‐$189.03 $136.68 ‐$127,407
State_Line_Wolf_Lake_138_flo_Burnham_Sheffield_3 666 ‐$1,262.98 ‐$50.02 ‐$208.99 $149.90 ‐$139,185
S1226_Tekamah_161kV_flo_S3451_Raun_345kV 284 ‐$1,903.18 ‐$50.98 ‐$605.62 $384.20 ‐$171,995
EAU_CLAIRE_ARPIN_345_KV 265 ‐$2,573.53 ‐$50.43 ‐$198.67 $225.30 ‐$52,648
Ellington_Hintz_138_flo_NAppleton_WernerWest_345 248 ‐$1,964.27 ‐$50.21 ‐$372.11 $329.02 ‐$92,283
PADDOCK_XFMR_1_WEMPLETON_ROCKDALE 227 ‐$1,620.05 ‐$50.64 ‐$264.04 $245.99 ‐$59,937
Arnold_Hazleton_ 199 ‐$1,628.62 ‐$50.46 ‐$336.82 $282.54 ‐$67,027
PANA_XFMR_COFFEEN_COFFEEN_NORTH 163 ‐$2,816.15 ‐$53.47 ‐$341.12 $336.08 ‐$55,603
BRE16X01_CULLEY_CULLEGRAND13_1_1 148 ‐$501.75 ‐$50.19 ‐$113.50 $60.63 ‐$16,799
Tiffin_Arnold_345kV 136 ‐$1,921.58 ‐$52.28 ‐$474.05 $467.13 ‐$64,471
GGS 130 ‐$986.63 ‐$50.39 ‐$321.95 $249.31 ‐$41,853
Pierce345_138_Xfm_B_Pierce_Foster345 120 ‐$2,226.64 ‐$55.25 ‐$537.31 $466.78 ‐$64,477
Oak_Grove_Galesburg_flo_Nelson_ElectricJct 117 ‐$1,203.69 ‐$50.65 ‐$295.38 $258.60 ‐$34,559
IMO_DECO 114 ‐$1,635.71 ‐$50.04 ‐$364.65 $280.38 ‐$41,570
Plymth_Sioux_City_161_flo_Raun_Sioux_City_345 109 ‐$1,459.73 ‐$58.37 ‐$605.57 $415.68 ‐$66,007
AMCBMT85_LABADIE_MASN‐L‐3_A 107 ‐$1,211.25 ‐$50.79 ‐$357.36 $238.23 ‐$38,237
Sub_56_Davnprt_ECalamus161_for_Quad_RockCr345_ 103 ‐$2,220.05 ‐$57.59 ‐$541.74 $478.54 ‐$55,799
Kammer_8_xfmr_l_o_Belmont_Harrison_500 103 ‐$399.89 ‐$50.02 ‐$103.03 $61.50 ‐$10,612
ALW3403_HAZLTON_HAZLTDUNDE16_1_1 99 ‐$1,966.09 ‐$64.65 ‐$426.98 $370.39 ‐$42,271
GENTLMN3_345_REDWILO3_345_1 94 ‐$1,360.80 ‐$58.21 ‐$373.21 $335.84 ‐$35,081
IPS05_COT_HLS_IP‐1456_3 90 ‐$545.05 ‐$53.04 ‐$136.35 $97.99 ‐$12,271
Dune_Acres_Michigan_City_138_1and2floWiltonCente 87 ‐$742.28 ‐$57.28 ‐$279.62 $158.78 ‐$24,327
Lime_Creek_Emery_161_flo_Adams_Hazleton_345 83 ‐$737.07 ‐$53.70 ‐$209.22 $162.95 ‐$17,365
Kammer_200_xfmr_flo_Belmont_Harrison_500 82 ‐$497.68 ‐$50.23 ‐$127.91 $80.56 ‐$10,488
WEC13288_STILES_64451_64 80 ‐$798.31 ‐$50.46 ‐$247.18 $176.54 ‐$19,774
Note: Not all constraints are in MISO footprint.
Proprietary and confidential. Do not copy or distribute without permission from OATI - © Open Access Technology International, Inc. Slide 10
MISO - Top 50 Most Frequently Congested Constraints (RT Market; Annual : All hours)
Note: Not all constraints are in MISO footprint.
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
$200,000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
BLACK
O_B
EDNGT500
_PRN
TY_M
TSTM
500
State_
Line
_Wolf_Lake_1
38_flo_B
urnh
am_She
ffield_3
S122
6_Tekamah_1
61kV_flo_S34
51_R
aun_
345kV
EAU_C
LAIRE_ARP
IN_3
45_K
VEllington
_Hintz_1
38_flo_N
App
leton_
Werne
rWest_34
5PA
DDOCK
_XFM
R_1_
WEM
PLETON_R
OCK
DALE
Arnold_
Hazleton_
PANA_X
FMR_
COFFEEN_C
OFFEEN_N
ORTH
BRE16X
01_C
ULLEY_C
ULLEG
RAND13
_1_1
Tiffin_A
rnold_
345kV
GGS
Pierce34
5_13
8_Xfm_B
_Pierce_
Foster345
Oak_G
rove_G
alesbu
rg_flo_N
elson_
ElectricJct
IMO_D
ECO
Plym
th_Sioux_C
ity_1
61_flo_R
aun_
Siou
x_City_3
45AMCB
MT85_
LABA
DIE_M
ASN
‐L‐3_A
Kammer_8
_xfm
r_l_o_
Belmon
t_Harrison_
500
Sub_
56_D
avnp
rt_ECalamus16
1_for_Quad_
RockCr34
5_ALW
3403
_HAZLTO
N_H
AZLTD
UNDE16_
1_1
GEN
TLMN3_
345_
REDWILO3_
345_
1IPS05_
COT_HLS_IP‐14
56_3
Dun
e_Acres_M
ichigan_
City_1
38_1
and2
floWilton
Cente
Lime_
Cree
k_Em
ery_16
1_flo
_Adams_Hazleton_
345
Kammer_2
00_xfm
r_flo
_Belmon
t_Harrison_
500
WEC13
288_
STILES_6
4451
_64
Darwin_Eugen
_345
_flo_Jefferson
_Rockport_76
5IP13
113_
SBLO
OM_IP‐15
96_1
Bond
urant_Bo
oneJct_1
61_for_Leh
igh_
Web
ster_3
45_
NIP13
01_ISG
_2_1
3841
_AElrama_Mitche
ll_13
8kV_
flo_Ft_Martin
_Ron
co_5
00kV
MGE690
01_B
LOUNT_69
04_1
Highw
ay_V
_Preble_
138_
flo_Lost_Dauph
in_R
ed_M
aple_
Wylie_R
idge_7
_tx_l_o_
Wylie_5
_tx_SPS_in_service
Salem_3
45_1
61_X
FMR_
flo_Tiffin_A
rnold_
345
FE34
015_
MASU
RY_M
ASU
RY_S_SPG
_1Pu
lliam
4_Stiles_13
8_flo
_Pulliam5_
Stiles_13
8Co
ffee
n_Pana34
5Coffeen
_Coffeen
North34
5WEC13
333_
PLEA
SAN2_
8252
1_82
A_B
_Brown_
Hen
derson
_138
_flo_C
ulley_Grand
view
_138
ALW
3403
G_A
RNOLD
_ARN
OLVINTO
16_1
_1E_Calamus_1
61by11
5_XFR_
flo_Tiffin_A
rnold_
345
Gibson_
Petersbu
rg_3
45_flo_G
ibson_
Bedford_
345
NIP34
002_
TOWER_R
D_A
_NO_2
_XFM
RWylie_R
idge_7
_345
_500
_xfm
r_l_o_
Wylie_R
idge_5_3
45Wylie_R
idge_5
_345
_500
_xfm
r_l_o_
Belmon
t_Harrison_
AMCB
V158
_RIV_R
IV_N
OFM
_1_A
10NEW
TVL_16
1_10
NEW
TVL_13
8_1
BASE_FOX_
LK_FOX_
LRUTLA16
_1_1
BASE_ST_LA
KE_ST_LA
GARD
N34
_1_1
Dun
dee_
Hazleton_
161kV_
flo_A
rnold_
Hazleton_
345kV
Ann
ual Sum
of A
BS(SP) with SP
<‐$50/M
Wh
Ann
ual Cou
nt of Sha
dow Prices <‐$
50/M
Wh
MISO Annual Real‐time Shadow Prices < ‐$50/MWh ‐ Top 50 by Count
Count LE ‐500
Count ‐200 to ‐500
Count ‐50 to ‐200
Psum
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MISO – Count and Psum of Real-Time Shadow Prices with ABS(SP) > $500/MWh (Annual : All hours)
Note: Not all constraints are in MISO footprint.
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Annual Sum of ABS(SP) with SP <‐$500/MWh
Annual Count of Shadow Prices <‐$500/MWh
MISO Annual Real‐time Shadow Prices < ‐$500/MWh 20 hours or more in 2007
Count LE ‐500
Psum LE ‐500
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Top 50 Aggregate Nodes with Negative LMPCC (Annual; Real-Time; Count)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
ALTW.JOULO
UIES
ALTW.JOULO
UIPW
ALTW.JOUCBLU
F3ALTW.JOUCBLU
F4ALTW.FAIR1
ALTW.FAIR2
ALTW.DAEC
ALTW.FPL_DAEC
ALTW.6ST64
ALTW.6ST67
ALTW.6ST68
SIGE.10CULG
N3
SIGE.WARR4SIGE
SIGE.10CULG
N2
ALTW.BVRCH1
ALTW.PRARC1
ALTW.PRARC2
ALTW.PRARC3
ALTW.PRARC4
ALTW.RCCSRCC1
ALTW.BVRCH2
ALTW.OTTUMW1
AMIL.COFFEEN1
AMIL.COFFEEN2
SIGE.10BGGTN
1SIGE.10BGGTN
2SIGE.10NEG
TN1
ALTW.BRLG
TN1
ALTW.BRLG
TN2
ALTW.BRLG
TN3
ALTW.BRLG
TN4
ALTW.AGEN
CY1
ALTW.AGEN
CY2
ALTW.AGEN
CY3
ALTW.AGEN
CY4
ALTW.BRLG
TN5
CWLD
.PLA
NTD
8SIGE.10ABBGN1
SIGE.10ABBGN2
SIGE.10ABGTG
TSIGE.ABBROWUN4
CWLD
.BLRG
ALTW.JOUNEA
LS4
ALTW.JOUNEA
LN3
ALTW.NCEN
T1ALTW.NCEN
T2FE.02SA
MMSN
3FE.02SA
MMSN
4FE.02SA
MMSN
5FE.02SA
MMSN
6
MISO Annual Real‐time Count of LMPCC LE ‐$20/MWh ‐ Top 50 Agregate Nodes
Count LE ‐100
Count ‐40 to ‐100
Count ‐20 to ‐40
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MISO Top 40 Aggregate Nodes Ranked by Negative LMPCC (Annual; Real-Time; Count)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Count of LMPCC with ABS (LMPCC) >$20/MWh
MISO Aggregate Nodes Ranked by Count of Annual Real‐time LMPCC < ‐$20/MWh
LMPCC >= 20 Annual CountLMPCC <= ‐20 Annual All Count
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Observations
• Shadow Prices– MISO Real-Time Shadow Prices are Non-positive– There were quite a number of constraints with
Shadow Prices exceeding $500/MWh in magnitude for 20 hours or more during the year 2007
• LMPCCs– Some Aggregate Node LMPCCs show little change of
sign during the year. They are either predominantly negative (in constrained-out areas) or positive (in constrained-in areas)
– Some Aggregate Node LMPCCs do change sign substantially and may not be consistently labeled as constrained-in or constrained out
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Market Metrics Study Results for New York ISO
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Specific Considerations for NYISO
• NYISO Shadow Price Data– NYISO Day-ahead Shadow Prices are posted with mixed
signs (positive and negative)– Negative Shadow Prices are due to misalignment of
reference directions of constraints and flows– NYISO provided direction correction to align data
• NYISO LMPCCs– Often multiple generator nodes are electrically close
(units in a power plant)– Performed pre-processing of generation nodes to retain
only one generator from among those with the same first 6 characters in generator name for further analysis
Proprietary and confidential. Do not copy or distribute without permission from OATI - © Open Access Technology International, Inc. Slide 17
Summary Statistics – Top 25 (Count) Binding NYISO Day-Ahead Constraints in 2007 (no sign correction)
Binding Constraints Annual Count Min SP Max SP Mean SP Std Dev Sum SP
DUNWODIE 345 SHORE_RD 345 1 3091 $10.00 $239.10 $25.29 $16.30 $78,167
CENTRAL EAST ‐ VC 2163 $10.00 $109.29 $31.27 $19.19 $67,629
GOWANUSS 138 GREENWD 138 1 1634 $10.01 $240.37 $48.14 $35.72 $78,659
GOWANUSS 138 GOWANUSS 138 1 1594 ‐$324.28 ‐$10.00 ‐$67.80 $46.14 ‐$108,073
GREENWD 138 VERNON 138 1 1400 ‐$347.08 ‐$10.03 ‐$64.57 $49.84 ‐$90,396
PLSNTVLY 345 LEEDS 345 1 1373 ‐$461.48 ‐$10.03 ‐$63.24 $54.51 ‐$86,821
GOWANUSN 138 GREENWD 138 1 1232 $10.01 $146.25 $34.09 $24.10 $41,995
FRESHKLS 138 WILLWBRK 138 1 1021 $10.02 $790.99 $82.63 $65.73 $84,364
GREENWD 138 KENTAVE 138 1 676 ‐$336.13 ‐$10.14 ‐$68.40 $61.19 ‐$46,238
WEST CENTRAL 657 $10.02 $67.71 $22.92 $10.13 $15,056
SPRNBRK 345 EGRDNCTR 345 1 592 $10.03 $66.50 $19.51 $10.93 $11,547
FARRAGUT 138 HUDS_AVE 138 1 483 ‐$187.54 ‐$10.02 ‐$32.93 $27.70 ‐$15,906
RAINEY 345 DUNWODIE 345 1 435 ‐$122.71 ‐$10.08 ‐$28.16 $16.27 ‐$12,248
SCH ‐ HQ ‐ NY 385 $10.01 $55.20 $31.60 $12.26 $12,166
E179THST 138 HELLTP_W 138 1 365 $10.04 $143.57 $19.42 $11.34 $7,087
MOTTHAVN 345 RAINEY 345 2 361 $10.01 $54.54 $20.80 $8.49 $7,510
GOETHSLN 345 GOWANUSN 345 1 332 $10.19 $183.88 $45.70 $36.86 $15,172
EGRDNCTY 345 EGRDNCTY 138 1 305 $10.03 $112.16 $25.39 $18.08 $7,744
RAINEY 138 VERNON 138 1 276 $10.26 $143.56 $24.53 $16.13 $6,770
GOETHLSS 345 GOWANUSS 345 1 266 $10.02 $396.55 $43.82 $41.24 $11,655
KENTAVE 138 VERNON 138 1 213 ‐$331.68 ‐$10.40 ‐$111.97 $105.72 ‐$23,849
SCH ‐ NPX_1385 166 $10.07 $105.08 $41.96 $27.32 $6,965
HUDS_AVE 138 JAMAICA 138 1 123 $10.55 $173.80 $53.77 $38.93 $6,614
GOWANUSN 138 GOWANUSN 138 1 108 ‐$477.36 ‐$10.27 ‐$82.07 $98.30 ‐$8,863
W49TH_ST 345 SPRNBRK 345 2 106 ‐$70.49 ‐$10.30 ‐$33.34 $12.98 ‐$3,534
Proprietary and confidential. Do not copy or distribute without permission from OATI - © Open Access Technology International, Inc. Slide 18
NYISO - Shadow Price Sign Reversal for Top 30 Day-Ahead Constraints with ABS(SP) > $10/MWh
‐
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Top 30 NYISO Annual Day‐Ahead Shadow Prices With ABS(SP) > $10/MWh
Count SP LE ‐10 (Sign Corrected)
Count SP GE 10 (Sign Corrected)
Proprietary and confidential. Do not copy or distribute without permission from OATI - © Open Access Technology International, Inc. Slide 19
Count of Top 50 NYISO Generator Nodes with LMPCC < -$20/MWh (Annual; Day-Ahead)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
BROOKHAVEN
___DRP
EAST HAMPTO
N___GT
EAST_HAMPTO
N___DIESEL
GLO
BAL GREEN_PORT_GT1
HOLTSVILLE_IC_1
LIPA_MISC_IPP
MONTA
UK___DIESEL
SOUTH
OLD
___IC
WADING RIVER_IC_1
KED
C PORT_JEFF_GT2
NYPA_BREN
TWD_____GT
PORT_JEFF_3
PPL PILGRIM
_ST_GT1
PPL_SH
RM_GT3
SHOREH
AM_IC_1
Stony___Brook
BETHPAGE_CC_5
PINELAWN_CC_1
WEST BABYLON___IC
CALPINE BETH_PAGE_GT4
Freeport___CT2
NORTH
PORT___1
BARRETT___1
FAR ROCKAWAY___4
FPL FA
R_ROCK_GT1
ELEC_TRO_TEK
HEM
PSTEA
D____
GLENWOOD___4
KED
C_GLW
D_GT4
NYPA_POUCH1_____GT
BROOKLYN___ARMY_DRP
GOWANUS_GT1_1
NARROWS_GT1_1
YORK___WARBASSE
NYPA_GOWANUS_____GT5
ARTH
UR KILL_GT_1
NYPA_KEN
T_____GT
NYPA_VERNON_____GT2
GOETHSLN___LBMP
WATERSIDE___6 8 9
RAVEN
SWOOD___1
74TH
STREET_GT_1
FARRAGUT___LBMP
HUDSO
N AVE_GT_3
ASTORIA___2
CE_NYC_DRP
EAST_RIVER___1
EAST RIVER___6
POLETTI____
59TH
STREET_GT_1
NYISO Annual Day‐Ahead Count of LMPCC < ‐$20/MWh ‐ Top 50 Sample Generation Nodes
Count LE ‐100
Count ‐40 to ‐100
Count ‐20 to ‐40
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Count of Top 50 NYISO Generator Nodes with LMPCC > $20/MWh (Annual; Day-Ahead)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
ALLEG
HEN
Y___
COGEN
GINNA__
__
STATION 5_M
ISC_
HYD
BEEBEE_G
T_13
RUSSELL___
1
ROCH
ESTER_
9_IC
OAK ORC
HARD
___H
YD
UNION__
_PRO
CESSING_D
RP
NEG
___G
EN_M
ONRO
E
KINTIGH__
__
SITH
E___
BATA
VIA
O.H._GEN
_BRU
CE
WESTERN
_NY_WIND
NYS_B
ARG
E___
HYD
NIAGARA
____
MODEL_C
ITY_EN
ERGY
MODERN_LFG
E__
NM_FRO
NTIER__
_DRP
OCC
_CHEM
___D
RP
OXB
OW__
__
AMERICAN_R
EF_FUEL
OLIN_C
ORP
_DRP
HUNTLEY__
_63
OUTO
KUMPU
‐AB_
__DRP
GARD
ENVILLE___
LBMP
CALSPA
N__
_DRP
GEN
ERAL___
MILLS
RANKINE___
_
STEEL___
WIND
LINDEN
COGEN
____
NEG
WEST___
LANCA
STR
DUNKIRK
___1
MILLSEA
T___
LFGE
NYPA_K
ENT___
__GT
GOETHSLN__
_LBM
P
CHAFFEE__
_LFG
E
NPX
_GEN
_138
5_PR
OXY
NEPA__
_ENERGY
ARTHUR KILL_G
T_1
ATH
ENS_STG_1
BLISS_WT_PW
R
NYPA_V
ERNON__
___G
T2
NINE_MILE_1
KIAC_
JFK_
GT1
FITZPA
TRICK_
___
PJM_G
EN_K
EYSTONE
N.E._GEN
_SANDY PD
NM_ST_REGIS__
_HYD
ALCOA_R
YNLD
S___
DRP
CHAT_HIGH_FALL_H
YD
NYISO Annual Day‐Ahead Count of LMPCC > $20/MWh ‐ Top 50 Sample Generation Nodes
Count GE 100
Count 40 to 100
Count 20 to 40
Proprietary and confidential. Do not copy or distribute without permission from OATI - © Open Access Technology International, Inc. Slide 21
Count of Top 50 NYISO Generator Nodes with LMPCC > $20/MWh (Annual; Day-Ahead)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
ALLEG
HEN
Y___COGEN
GINNA____
STATION 5_MISC_HYD
BEEBEE_GT_13
RUSSELL___1
ROCHESTER_9_IC
OAK ORCHARD___HYD
UNION___PROCESSING_DRP
NEG
___GEN
_MONROE
KINTIGH____
O.H._GEN
_BRUCE
SITH
E___BATA
VIA
WESTERN_NY_WIND
NYS_BARGE___HYD
NIAGARA____
MODEL_CITY_EN
ERGY
MODERN_LFGE__
NM_FRONTIER___DRP
OCC_CHEM
___DRP
OXBOW____
AMERICAN_REF_FU
EL
OLIN_CORP_DRP
HUNTLEY___63
OUTO
KUMPU‐AB___DRP
GARDEN
VILLE___LBMP
CALSPAN___DRP
GEN
ERAL___MILLS
RANKINE____
STEEL___WIND
LINDEN
COGEN
____
NEG
WEST___LA
NCASTR
DUNKIRK___1
MILLSEA
T___LFGE
NYPA_KEN
T_____GT
GOETHSLN___LBMP
CHAFFEE___LFGE
NPX_GEN
_1385_PROXY
NEPA___EN
ERGY
ARTH
UR KILL_GT_1
ATH
ENS_STG_1
BLISS_WT_PWR
NYPA_VERNON_____GT2
NINE_MILE_1
KIAC_JFK_GT1
FITZPATRICK____
PJM
_GEN
_KEYSTONE
N.E._GEN
_SA
NDY PD
NM_ST_REG
IS___HYD
ALCOA_RYN
LDS___DRP
CHAT_HIGH_FA
LL_HYD
NYISO Annual Day‐Ahead Count of LMPCC > $20/MWh ‐ Top 50 Sample Generation Nodes
Total Count LE ‐20
Total Count GE 20
Proprietary and confidential. Do not copy or distribute without permission from OATI - © Open Access Technology International, Inc. Slide 22
Observations Regarding NYISO Metrics
• NYISO Shadow Price Metrics– Very few Shadow Prices are positive after sign
correction – Very few Shadow Prices exceed $500/MWh in
magnitude (only 4 occurrence in 2007)
• NYISO Generation LMPCCs– Constrained Generator Nodes are predominantly
“Constrained out” (negative LMPCCs) – Most Generator Node LMPCCs show little change of sign
during the year– Some Generator Node LMPCCs do change sign but they
are predominantly either constrained-in or constrained out
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Market Metrics Study Results for PJM
Proprietary and confidential. Do not copy or distribute without permission from OATI - © Open Access Technology International, Inc. Slide 24
Specific Considerations for PJM
• LMPCC Metrics– No data for January to May 2007. Computed LMPCC for
January to May as follows• For each hour computed simple average of load node
LMPs and used as Reference Node LMP (LMPref)• For each node (Generation, Load, Zone, etc.) for each
hour computed the LMPCC of that node as (LMPnode –LMPref)
– Often multiple generator nodes are electrically close (units in a power plant)
– For presentation of results, retained only one Generator node from among those with the same initial 8 characters and with Count difference less than 5
Proprietary and confidential. Do not copy or distribute without permission from OATI - © Open Access Technology International, Inc. Slide 25
Summary Statistics – Top 25 Frequently Binding PJM Day-Ahead Constraints in 2007 with SP < -$50/MWh
Binding Constraints Annual Count Min SP Max SP Mean SP Std Dev Sum SP
BED‐BLA 2518 ‐$478.99 ‐$50.02 ‐$100.43 $45.72 ‐$252,886
Cloverdale ‐ Lexington 500 kV 1285 ‐$271.08 ‐$50.01 ‐$70.75 $20.60 ‐$90,914
BRANCHBU230 KV BRA‐REA 981 ‐$933.00 ‐$50.11 ‐$148.82 $127.45 ‐$145,990
BECKET 69KV BEC‐PAU 581 ‐$877.61 ‐$50.80 ‐$347.39 $198.71 ‐$201,834
ETOWANDA115 KV 3 TX 577 ‐$463.94 ‐$50.06 ‐$161.84 $89.39 ‐$93,384
MEADOWBR138 KV TRAN 3 475 ‐$1,847.66 ‐$50.01 ‐$151.85 $152.90 ‐$72,129
BEDINGTO138 KV BED‐NIP 332 ‐$624.57 ‐$50.04 ‐$119.93 $85.22 ‐$39,817
KAMMER2 765 KV .200 319 ‐$206.22 ‐$50.00 ‐$76.81 $29.06 ‐$24,503
ATLANTIC230 KV ATL‐LAR 314 ‐$499.00 ‐$50.03 ‐$102.72 $70.06 ‐$32,255
WYLIERID500 KV TRAN 7 298 ‐$232.82 ‐$50.00 ‐$86.87 $39.26 ‐$25,886
GARDNERS115 KV GAR‐HUN 279 ‐$1,645.89 ‐$50.30 ‐$117.94 $151.36 ‐$32,905
MITCHELL138 KV MIT‐SHE 232 ‐$273.70 ‐$50.04 ‐$109.39 $48.23 ‐$25,379
BEDINGTO138 KV TRAN 1 222 ‐$1,382.27 ‐$50.13 ‐$382.98 $339.19 ‐$85,022
APSOUTH 220 ‐$225.03 ‐$50.03 ‐$89.68 $38.85 ‐$19,729
KERRDAM 115 KV 22C 213 ‐$363.98 ‐$50.06 ‐$127.11 $71.68 ‐$27,075
TIDD_AEP138 KV MAH‐TID 187 ‐$278.03 ‐$50.30 ‐$104.88 $50.97 ‐$19,613
CARS DUQ138 KV CAR‐HOM 184 ‐$523.48 ‐$50.91 ‐$169.21 $94.76 ‐$31,134
HUNTERST115 KV 4 BANK 165 ‐$296.27 ‐$50.68 ‐$130.98 $64.19 ‐$21,611
BRANCHBU230 KV BRA‐FLA 160 ‐$431.90 ‐$51.57 ‐$118.22 $66.72 ‐$18,914
HALIFAX 115 KV 33C 149 ‐$350.81 ‐$50.32 ‐$119.24 $65.71 ‐$17,767
AMOS 345 KV 7‐P 147 ‐$365.45 ‐$50.11 ‐$136.63 $78.34 ‐$20,084
BEDINGTO138 KV TRAN 2 145 ‐$519.60 ‐$52.24 ‐$127.50 $88.04 ‐$18,487
BED‐BLA contingency 8 137 ‐$220.54 ‐$50.76 ‐$106.60 $43.95 ‐$14,604
ALBRIGHT138 KV ALB‐MTZ 133 ‐$433.91 ‐$50.82 ‐$124.60 $80.24 ‐$16,571
AXTONAEP765 KV . 1 127 ‐$208.80 ‐$50.46 ‐$95.28 $37.29 ‐$12,100
Proprietary and confidential. Do not copy or distribute without permission from OATI - © Open Access Technology International, Inc. Slide 26
Top Frequently Binding Day-Ahead Constraints with ABS (SP) > 500/MWh (PJM Annual All Hours)
Binding Constraints Annual Count Min SP Max SP Mean SP Std Dev Sum SP
BECKET 69KV BEC‐PAU 143 ‐$877.61 ‐$502.18 ‐$615.44 $83.97 ‐$88,008
BEDINGTO138 KV TRAN 1 63 ‐$1,382.27 ‐$521.81 ‐$840.55 $275.67 ‐$52,954
BRANCHBU230 KV BRA‐REA 24 ‐$933.00 ‐$502.32 ‐$709.91 $106.91 ‐$17,038
DOUBS 500 KV 500‐3 20 ‐$964.57 ‐$502.79 ‐$764.00 $152.88 ‐$15,280
JACK ME 115 KV 4 BA‐S 11 ‐$961.43 ‐$619.98 ‐$785.55 $101.60 ‐$8,641
BECKETT 69 KV BEC‐PAU 10 ‐$760.32 ‐$511.99 ‐$654.10 $101.69 ‐$6,541
MEADOWBR138 KV TRAN 3 10 ‐$1,847.66 ‐$506.27 ‐$950.91 $440.07 ‐$9,509
NSEAFORD138 KV AT‐1 9 ‐$1,762.46 ‐$581.64 ‐$896.08 $353.38 ‐$8,065
EUREKA 138 KV EUR‐WIL 6 ‐$762.99 ‐$522.90 ‐$670.56 $73.68 ‐$4,023
KMF‐PM 5 ‐$568.61 ‐$514.82 ‐$546.25 $21.05 ‐$2,731
BELMONT 500 KV TRAN 3 4 ‐$1,186.21 ‐$999.20 ‐$1,090.35 $66.58 ‐$4,361
GARDNERS115 KV GAR‐HUN 4 ‐$1,645.89 ‐$874.96 ‐$1,238.17 $286.96 ‐$4,953
KINGWOOD138 KV KIN‐PRU 4 ‐$598.15 ‐$509.50 ‐$547.98 $34.34 ‐$2,192
ALLELUD4138 KV ALL‐SPR 3 ‐$842.95 ‐$570.49 ‐$719.16 $112.62 ‐$2,157
BEDINGTO138 KV BED‐NIP 3 ‐$624.57 ‐$528.69 ‐$580.94 $39.61 ‐$1,743
CLAYSBUR115 KV CLA‐CUR 3 ‐$544.28 ‐$510.21 ‐$526.33 $13.97 ‐$1,579
OX4 500 KV TX2 3 ‐$848.28 ‐$602.83 ‐$692.07 $110.83 ‐$2,076
ALBRIGHT138 KV ALB‐SNO 2 ‐$876.83 ‐$619.84 ‐$748.34 $128.50 ‐$1,497
ALTAVSTA115 KV 30A 2 ‐$1,319.03 ‐$1,288.34 ‐$1,303.69 $15.35 ‐$2,607
GLENDON 115 KV GLE‐HOS 2 ‐$535.03 ‐$501.21 ‐$518.12 $16.91 ‐$1,036
PLYMOUTH230 KV PLY‐WHI4 2 ‐$532.62 ‐$502.29 ‐$517.46 $15.17 ‐$1,035
Proprietary and confidential. Do not copy or distribute without permission from OATI - © Open Access Technology International, Inc. Slide 27
Generator Nodes with ABS (LMPCC) > $20/MWh -Top 50 (PJM Annual; Day-Ahead; Ordered by Count)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
WARRIORN13 KV GEN
1SA
VAGEM
T138 KV …
NFRANKLI138 KV …
KELSO
GAP138 KV …
HATFIELD
18 KV GEN
1CHESWICK24 KV UNIT1
ALBRIGHT13 KV GEN
1ELRAMA 17 KV UNIT4
RONCO 18 KV CT1
ELRAMA 16 KV UNIT3
WILLIAM 34 KV …
ELRAMA 13 KV UNIT1
FTMARTIN22 KV GEN
1TIDD_AEP24 KV CD1
LAKELYN
N11 KV GEN
…TIDD_AEP24 KV CD2
OSA
GE 138 KV M
EA …
GANS 138 KV GEN
8KAMMER2 26 KV M
L1BRUNOTIS13 KV CT2A
BRUNOTIS13 KV CT1A
BRUNOTIS13 KV UNIT3
VALL DUQ23 KV …
RIVESVIL11 KV GEN
5AES DUQ 13 KV M
AIN
STJOE 13 KV UNIT1
GATESH
IL138 KV …
GRANTTOW18 KV …
PLEA APS26 KV GEN
1BEA
V DUQ22 KV UNIT1
MITCHELL13 KV GEN
…KAMMER2 26 KV M
L2WILLO
WIS13 KV GEN
1HARR APS20 KV GEN
1KAMMER2 15.5 KV …
OAKG APS138 KV …
CONNELSV138 KV …
GORSU
CH 138 KV …
BLA
CKOAK500 KV SVC
NEW
MARTI138 KV …
GORDON 138 KV …
CODOVER
138 KV …
AMPOR 138 KV …
DEN
AWASH
18 KV UN1
MUSKING215.5 KV …
MUSKING218 KV M
R1
7 STA
TE 18 KV SL‐4
944 SE C13.5 KV SE10
944 SE C13.5 KV SE‐9
MUSKING215.5 KV …
PJM Annual Day‐Ahead Count of ABS(LMPCC) > $20/MWh ‐ Top 50 Generator Nodes
Total Count LE ‐20
Total Count GE 20
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Observations
• Shadow Price Metrics– PJM Shadow Prices are Non-positive– There were quite a number of constraints with
Shadow Prices exceeding $500/MWh in magnitude during the year 2007
• LMPCC Metrics– The top frequently constrained generators are
constrained out (negative LMPCC)– Most Generator Node LMPCCs show little change of
sign during the year– Some Generator Node LMPCCs do change sign but
they are predominantly either constrained-in or constrained out
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Market Metrics Study Results for ISONE
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Specific Considerations for ISONE
• Shadow Prices– ISONE Shadow Prices are available only for Interfaces– No shadow price data for internal ISONE Constraints– ISONE Shadow Prices are all non-positive
• Congestion Rent Metrics– ISONE provided “Flow” data for Interfaces– For consistency sum of ABS(Shadow Price) was used as
surrogate for congestion rent
• LMPCC Metrics– LMPCC data is available publicly from ISONE website– Network Nodes were used as primary node types
Proprietary and confidential. Do not copy or distribute without permission from OATI - © Open Access Technology International, Inc. Slide 31
ISONE Day-Ahead Interface Shadow Prices with ABS (SP) > $10/MWh (Ordered by Annual Count)
Proprietary and confidential. Do not copy or distribute without permission from OATI - © Open Access Technology International, Inc. Slide 32
ISONE Annual Day-ahead Network Nodes with LMPCCs > $20/MWh - Top 50 (Ordered by Count)
Proprietary and confidential. Do not copy or distribute without permission from OATI - © Open Access Technology International, Inc. Slide 33
ISONE Annual Day-ahead Network Nodes with LMPCCs < -$20/MWh - Top 50 (Ordered by Count)
Proprietary and confidential. Do not copy or distribute without permission from OATI - © Open Access Technology International, Inc. Slide 34
Observations
• ISONE Shadow Prices are much lower in magnitude and frequency than other markets
• Compared to other markets, ISONE LMPCCs are lower in magnitude and the frequency with which they exceeded the designated thresholds
• These results confirm that there was much less congestion in ISONE in 2007 compared to other markets analyzed
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Concluding Remarks
• Market Metrics based on Shadow Prices are more consistent than those based on LMPCC
• LMPCC metrics are still useful for designation of seasonal variations of constrained-out and constrained-in areas
• Among the markets analyzed, MISO and PJM had larger frequency and magnitude of congestion in 2007 than NYISO and ISONE
• ISONE was the least congested
Proprietary and confidential. Do not copy or distribute without permission from OATI - © Open Access Technology International, Inc. Slide 36
THANK YOUFarrokh Rahimi, Ph.D.