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Maritime Drug Interdiction Through UAV Surveillance
Presented byLT Monica SchneiderLT Sylvester CamposLT Mike Dickenson
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Background
• US Counter Drug Programs • Goal: Reduce the flow of Latin American
sourced Illicit drugs into the U.S.• Interdiction methods
•Stricter Cross Border Control•Supply reduction - Crop Eradication
• Primary source of Cocaine• Bolivia, Columbia, Peru account for all cocaine
harvested in the world
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2012 CBP Cocaine Seizure Statistics
• Coastal Border Sectors• 24 Seizures• 5,953 Pounds
• Southwest Border Sectors• 457 Seizures• 5,992 Pounds
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Drug Traffickers Transport Methods
Self-Propelled Semisubmersibles (SPSSs) Go-Fast Boats
Fishing Vessels Container Ships
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The Latest in the Drug War “Operation Martillo”
• Operation Martillo is a multinational interagency and joint military operation that combats aerial and maritime drug trafficking off Central America’s coasts. U.S. military participation is led by Joint Interagency Task Force South (JIATF), a component of U.S. Southern Command.
• Partnership of 14 various countries
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Successes of Operation Martillo
• January 24, 2013 – Coast Guard intercepted 1,400 pounds of cocaine ($17 million) from a smuggler go-fast boat
• April 26, 2013 – Coast Guard intercepted 2,200 pounds of cocaine ($27 million) from a fishing vessel
• June 1, 2013 - $527 million worth in Cocaine from 2 Speed Boats
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Assets for Maritime Interdiction
• Support from 4th Fleet• 4 Frigates Patrol in 2 zones (Pacific/Atlantic) coasts
of South America• Coast Guard A/C and Cutters• 600 Person Multiagency Task Force• Partner nations contribute Patrol Boats and P-
3’s (Canada)• 4 UAV’s
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MQ-9 Predator General Characteristics Primary Function: Airborne surveillance and target acquisition Fuel Capacity: 100 gallons Payload: 450 poundsSpeed: Cruise speed around 84 mph (70 knots), up to 135 mph Ceiling: up to 50,000 feetEndurance: Up to 30 hoursCost: $16.9 MillionCrew (remote): Two (pilot and sensor operatorTracking: FMV monitored by controlling station or uplinked with an asset.Capable in low visibility (cloud cover) and inclement weather
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Intent• UAV’s will be able to spot drug traffickers and
then report back to a command center, which will alert the Coast Guard, Navy or authorities from Caribbean or Central American nations to take action.
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UAV Search Graph
• Original Problem• Cocaine & Marijuana• All possible routes• Max Flow
• Project Focus• Cocaine• Maritime Routes• Max Flow with shortestpath properties
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Network Model• Max Flow Network Model / Modified Min Cost
Flow to force shortest path properties• Nodes
• Demand Nodes - Corpus Christi, Miami, New Orleans
• Supply Nodes – Equally Distributed Supply Nodes along Latin American Coast (53 Total)
• Edges – All neighboring water nodes are connected
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Network Edges
• Each Node over waterIs connected by an edge
• Flow moving from Supply nodes to Demand nodes
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Supply & Demand Nodes• Supply Nodes
• Equally Distributed• 53 Supply Nodes• 625lbs each
• Demand Nodes• Miami - 9,922• New Orleans 9,921• Corpus Christi 13,282
• Transit Nodes• 329
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Equally Distributed Supply
• Distance vs Profit • Annual estimated
flow
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Assumptions
• Cocaine travels from supply to demand nodes shortest feasible path• Presently 15% rate of seizure of all drugs in the demand regions• UAVs are available to be on station 24/7• UAVs identify targets and tracks until forces arrive for apprehension
(never leave station after they are assigned best grid location)• 100 percent detection rate of drug running vessels transiting through
UAVs’ station.• Can not interdict within 60 km off US coast• Each node is 1° degree of latitude and longitude
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Analysis
• 33,126 lbs transportedfrom all supply nodes Combined
• Node distinction
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The “Interesting Questions”
• How much drug flow can be interdicted?
• How many UAVs do we need to stop as much
drug flow as possible?
• Marginal cost of adding UAV interdictions?
• At what levels can the program be fiscally
justified?
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Interdictions
• UAVs can be assign 1 to multiple nodes to survey
• Probability of detection is initially 1 when assigned a single node and is reduced to 1 divided by number of nodes assigned
• UAVs never participate in apprehension• Apprehension away from UAV station • No Interdictions with 60 miles of US Coastline• UAV yearly mission cost $18.4 Million per UAV
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1 UAV Interdiction
Total/Change• 11,328 lbs seized
• $133 Million• 34.2% reduction
• Seizure Cost• $1,641/lbs• $0.54 Million/%
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2 UAV Interdictions
Additional 5,625 lbs•$66.5 Million•17.0% reduction
Total 16,953 lbs seized• $200 Million• 51.2% reduction
Seizure Cost• $2,171/lbs• $0.72 Million/%
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3 UAV Interdictions
Additional 5,000 lbs•$59.1 Million•15.1% reduction
Total 21,953 lbs seized• $259 Million• 66.3% reduction
Seizure Cost• $2,514/lbs• $0.83 Million/%
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4 UAV Interdictions
Additional 2,500 lbs•$29.5 Million•7.5% reduction
Total 24,453 lbs seized• $289 Million• 73.8% reduction
Seizure Cost• $3,010/lbs• $1.0 Million/%
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5 UAV Interdictions
Additional 1,250 lbs•$14.8 Million•3.8% reduction
Total 26,003 lbs seized• $307 Million• 78.4% reduction
Seizure Cost• $3,538/lbs• $1.2 Million/%
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Patterned Interdictions
Additional 2,656 lbs•$31.4 Million•$6,927 / lb
Additional 3,144 lbs•$37.2 Million•$5,852 / lb
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Number of Interdictions
$/lb
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Number of Interdictions
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Further Research• Increase complexity by removing as many
assumption as possible• Specific UAV parameters• Joint coordination timelines/requirements/assests
• Refueling and replacement plans for UAV for management of assets (time to station)
• Improve intelligence on drug smuggling process
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References• “Just the Facts” A Civilians Guide to U.S. Defense and Security Assistance
• http://justf.org/blog/2013/03/12/operation-martillo-southcoms-counternarcotics-operation-central-americas-coasts
• Statfor Global Intelligence• http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/mexicos-cartels-and-economics-cocaine?older=1353501041
• 162nd Fighter Wing• http://www.162fw.ang.af.mil/resources/factsheets/factsheet.asp?id=11932
• World Drug Report