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Preparation and Validation of Emission Preparation and Validation of Emission Inventory of Air Pollutants over Megacity Inventory of Air Pollutants over Megacity
DelhiDelhi
Manju Mohan, Lalit DagarManju Mohan, Lalit DagarCentre for Atmospheric Sciences,Centre for Atmospheric Sciences,
Indian Institute of Technology, New DelhiIndian Institute of Technology, New Delhi
email: [email protected]: [email protected]
B.R. GurjarB.R. Gurjar Department of Civil Engineering,Department of Civil Engineering,
Indian Institute of Technology, Indian Institute of Technology, RoorkeeRoorkee
&
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IntroductionIntroduction
Emission inventory is useful for air pollution Emission inventory is useful for air pollution control measurescontrol measures
It is also essential for air quality modelingIt is also essential for air quality modeling
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ObjectivesObjectives
To prepare emission inventory for total To prepare emission inventory for total emissions of criteria pollutants, greenhouse emissions of criteria pollutants, greenhouse gases and ozone precursors in the city of Delhi.gases and ozone precursors in the city of Delhi.
The study area Delhi is located at 28.53’ N, 76.20’ E.
Further, based on the total emissions of the city, Further, based on the total emissions of the city, to estimate gridded emissions of criteria air to estimate gridded emissions of criteria air pollutants for air quality assessment in the citypollutants for air quality assessment in the city
Finally, the validation of the gridded emissionsFinally, the validation of the gridded emissions
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STUDY AREA
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Source 1970-71 1980-81 1990-91 2000-01
Industrial 56% 40% 29% 20%
Vehicular 23% 42% 64% 72%
Domestic 21% 18% 7% 8%
Decade-wise Trend of Distribution of Various Sources
Significant increase in Vehicular emissions in 3 decadesSignificant dec. in industrial and domestic emissions in this period
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Emission Estimates for Greenhouse gases, ozone precursors and Particulate Matter
(1990-2000) for mega-city Delhi
Existing inventories focus only on a particular pollutant Existing inventories focus only on a particular pollutant (s), emission source, sector or a year(s), emission source, sector or a year
Therefore, a comprehensive EI presented in support of Therefore, a comprehensive EI presented in support of air quality, atmospheric chemistry and climate studies.air quality, atmospheric chemistry and climate studies.
CHCH4,4,NN22O,NHO,NH33,NMVOC,NO,NMVOC,NO22,SO,SO2 2 and TSP have been and TSP have been estimated annually from 1990-2000.estimated annually from 1990-2000.
Source categories are: PP, domestic, agriculture, waste treatment, transport and industrial processes.
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Emission Trends
Power plants are main source of SO2 and TSP and CO2
followed by the transport sector. However, in case of
CO2 domestic sector also contribute sufficiently
Transport sector was the largest source for NOx, CO and NMVOC
CH4 is mainly emitted from solid waste disposal while Agriculture is the largest source of NH3 and N2O.
It is also found that NOx emissions are still increasing and TSP significantly violates the permissible limits.
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Gridded Emission Inventory of Criteria Air Gridded Emission Inventory of Criteria Air Pollutants and Identification of Emission Pollutants and Identification of Emission
Hotspots for Megacity DelhiHotspots for Megacity Delhi
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Atmospheric emission inventories are important tools for air pollution modelling and environmental decision making.
An inventory provides information on the type of emission source and on the spatial and temporal variability of the respective emission.
Emissions are estimated specifically for individual air pollutants, classes of pollutants or for other substances affecting the atmosphere’s properties.
Gridded Emission InventoryGridded Emission Inventory
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A Gridded Emission inventory of the following pollutants is prepared:
SO2
NOx
PM CO
Validation of the emissions of these criteria pollutants is performed from air quality monitoring network of CPCB
Gridded Inventory
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There are two ways of forming emission inventories: Top-down approach Bottom-up approach
In the present study, a Top-down approach has been applied.
The topdown approach applies the concept to a larger area, where statistical data may be more readily available
Emissions are first calculated for the total area, and only subsequently distributed within the respective area using surrogate information and downscaling methods.
Gridded Emission Inventory: Gridded Emission Inventory: MethodologyMethodology
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The analysis area is divided uniformly into 173 grids of 2km x 2km grid size.
This study is based on emission data of 11 years i.e., 1990-2000.
Emissions from Power plants, transportation, industries, domestic and waste has been considered.
Gridded Emission Inventory: Gridded Emission Inventory: MethodologyMethodology
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Methodology
A Gaussian model was used to study the dispersion from these (TPP) point sources and accordingly appropriate weights were imparted to adjacent zones.
Weights were also allocated to industrial emission coming from residential grids.
Emission contours for each pollutants were drawn for all 11 years in order to identify the emission hotspots.
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0 5 10 15 200
5
10
15
20
25
(km
)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
(km )
C O -1990
9
ITO
CP
AIIMS
MANGOLPURI
SHAHADRA
MATHURA RD
ROHTAK RD.
0 5 10 15 2 00
5
1 0
1 5
2 0
2 5
(km
)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
(km )
9
C O -1 996
KAROL BAGH
MODEL TOWN
OKHLA
BADARPUR
0 5 10 15 20 (km )0
5
10
15
20
25(k
m)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
CO -20009
VASANT VIHAR
GURGAON RD
CO
Emission
Isopleths
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0 5 1 0 1 5 2 00
5
1 0
1 5
2 0
2 5
(km
)
00.20.4
0.60.811.21.41.61.822.22.4
2.62.8
3 . 0
P M -1 9 9 0
(km )
ITO
IG
CP
0 5 10 1 5 200
5
1 0
1 5
2 0
2 5
(km
)
00 .20 .40 .60 .811 .21 .41 .61 .822 .22 .42 .62 .8
PM-1996
(km)
3.0
MANGOLPURI
KAROL BAGH
SHAHADRA
AIIMS
BADARPUR
0 5 10 15 200
5
10
15
20
25
(km
)
00.20.40.60 .811.21.41.61 .822.22.42.62 .8
P M -2 000
(km )
3 . 0
PM
Emission
Isopleths
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0 5 10 15 200
5
10
15
20
25
(km
)
0
0.2
0 .4
0 .6
0 .8
1
1.2
1 .4
1 .6
1 .8
2
2.2
2 .4
2 .6
N O x-19902.8
(km )
ITO SHAHADRA
NARAINA
MANGOLPURI
AIIMS
0 5 1 0 15 2 00
5
1 0
1 5
2 0
2 5
(km
)
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
(km )
2 .8
N O x-1996
MODEL TOWN
KAROL BAGH
PATPARGANJ
UTTAM NAGAR
BADARPUR
0 5 10 15 200
5
10
15
20
25
(km
)
0
0 .2
0 .4
0 .6
0 .8
1
1 .2
1 .4
1 .6
1 .8
2
2 .2
2 .4
2 .6
(km )
NOx-20002 .8
NOx
Emission
Isopleths
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0 5 1 0 15 200
5
1 0
1 5
2 0
2 5
(km
)
0
0 .2
0 .4
0 .6
0 .8
1
1 .2
1 .4
1 .6
1 .8
2
SO 2-1990
(km )
2.2
ITO
CP
IG
BADARPUR
0 5 10 15 200
5
10
15
20
25
(km
)
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
S O 2 -19 96
(km )
2 .2
0 5 1 0 1 5 2 00
5
1 0
1 5
2 0
2 5
(km
)
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
(km )
S O 2-20002 .2
MODEL TOWN
MANGOLPURI
KAROL BAGH
SHAHADRA
AIIMS
SO2
Emission
Isopleths
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Pollutant CO PM NOx SO2
Primaryhotspots
• Mangolpuri• ITO• CP• Shahadra• AIIMS(> 4 Gg)
• ITO• CP,• India Gate(> 2.2 Gg)
• Mangolpuri• ITO• Shahadra• AIIMS• Naraina(> 2 Gg)
• ITO• India Gate• Badarpur• CP(> 1.5 Gg)
Secondaryhotspots
• Karolbagh• Model Town• Badarpur, • Okhla• Vasant
Vihar• Gurgaon
Road(2.5- 4 Gg)
• Karolbagh, • Shahadra• AIIMS• Badarpur,• Mangolpuri(1- 2.2 Gg)
• Karolbagh• Model Town• Okhla• Badarpur• Vasant Vihar• Gurgaon
Road• Patparganj• Uttam Nagar( 1-2 Gg)
• Karolbagh• Shahadra• AIIMS• Mangolpuri• Model
Town(0.8- 1.5 Gg)
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Validation Emission from each grid is associated to the
available CPCB observational sites.
The analysis area is divided into 7 zones according to the available observational sites.
This was done in order to associate emission from each grid with the corresponding observational site.
The boundaries of the 7 zones have been approximated by using stair-step grid structure.
Validation of these emission estimates was done with CPCB concentration values.
Station wise and Year wise comparison of Average Emission and Concentration is done.
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Distribution of Analysis Area using Voronoi Polygon Technique
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Air Quality Monitoring Stations in Delhi
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SO2
y = 12.85x + 9.5677
R2 = 0.4704
0
10
20
30
40
50
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
Average Emission
Co
ncen
trati
on
SO2
Linear (SO2)
Average Emission vs Concentration
NOx
y = 26.819x + 11.534
R2 = 0.5987
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
Average Emission
Co
ncen
trati
on
NOx
Linear (NOx)
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CO
y = 543.98x + 1996.2
R2 = 0.6766
200025003000350040004500500055006000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Average Emission
Co
ncen
trati
on
CO
Linear (CO)
PMy = 61.742x + 317.17
R2 = 0.3385
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
Average Emission
Co
ncen
trati
on
PM
Linear (PM)
Average Emission vs Concentration
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Pollutant Correlation Coefficient, r
SO2 0.6859
NOX 0.7738
PM 0.5818
CO 0.8226
The Relationship between Predicted Emission of Each Pollutant and Observed Concentration
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Emission Trends in Seven Sampling Stations, 1990-2000
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Conclusions The emission trends show that emissions in megacity
Delhi are partly associated with a strong interannual variability based on introduction of control measures, fuel shifts, changes in agricultural practice, increase in the vehicle fleet or problems within the power generation sector.
A good correlation for the estimated emission inventory is obtained that shows a reasonable validation.
Different approaches can be used for validation with the availability of more data.
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Estimation of Environmental Impact due to Sulfur dioxide Emission from Thermal Power
Plants in IndiaManju Mohan and A Azohni*
,
Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Hauz Khas, New Delhi-110016
INDIA
*formerly M.Tech. Studennt
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Although there has been a noticeable reduction in the pollution level of SO2 and CO but still a lot needs to be done for NOx and PM those remains above the prescribed standards.
Decrease in some of the pollutants has been witnessed but the prototype/blueprint of the polluting areas remains the same i.e., the areas of high pollution still remains intact and follows the same pattern.
Thus, the emission trends and air quality analysis reveal that the impact of several control measures is not very large.
Conclusions (contd..)
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Objectives
Estimation of emission, concentration and deposition.
To locate the regions of high concentration and deposition.
Identification of power plants depositing sulfur at vulnerable ecosystems.
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Thermal Power Plants in India
• There are about 83 coal fired thermal power plants in India.
• 47 Thermal power plants all of which are more than 300 MW are being considered
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The RAINS-Asia
Developed by IIASA through the funding of WB and ADB.
Estimates the present and future sulfur emissions.
Atmospheric dispersion of SO2,, Concentration and Deposition.
Impacts of emission control measures on regional sulfur deposition and SO2 concentrations levels.
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Locations of Emissions
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SO2 EmissionsSO2 emissions in 2005 (Current Senario)
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47
power plants
SO
2 e
mis
sio
ns i
n k
t/year
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SO2 Concentrations 2000
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Concentrations 2005
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Highest Concentrations
Highest at 82E Long and 24N Lat (Siddhi, Jiawan, Waldhan, Rewa) 26.5409 µg/m3.
TPPs Contributes 24.6045 µg/m3 which makes 92.7%.
Highest contribution, Singrauli 10.91 µg/m3 (41.12% )
TPPs Total 24.6ug/m3 92.7%
Other Area
sources, 1.94, 7%
Vindhiachal, 2.38,
9%
Anpara, 4.00, 15%
Orba, 4.61, 17%Rihand,
2.70, 10%
Singrauli, 10.91, 42%
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Highest Concentrations
82E Longitude and 22N Latitude, (Chhattisgarh) Bilaspur, Korba Katgora and Janjgir. 22.12166 µg/m3
Main Source Korba STPS (14.47051 µg/m3)
Other Area
Souces, 1.51,
7%
Korba STPS,
14.47, 66%
Korba West,
5.89, 27%
Vindhiachal,
0.10, 0%
Orba, 0.01, 0%
Rihand, 0.04,
0%
Singrauli
STPS, 0.11, 0%
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Concentrations
Observation v/s Predicted
0
10
20
30
40
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39
Monitoring Stations
Co
ncen
trati
on
s in
ug
/m3
Observed Predicted TPPs
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Concentrations at monitoring Stations
Sl. No.
City Long Lat CPCB
(ug/m3)
Cumulative Concn
(ug/m3)
Major TPPs
(Ug/m3)
% of Major TPPs
contribution
1 Agra 78°02'E 27°11'E 9.250 4.447 0.377 8.482 2 Alwar 76°38'E 27°34'N 16.830 3.096 0.348 11.255 3 Amhedabad 72°37'E 23°02'N 8.430 9.914 6.911 69.710 4 Angul 85°05'E 20°48'N 5.600 6.252 3.644 58.282 5 Bangalore 77°56'E 12°57'N 20.730 6.176 3.468 56.150 6 Chennai 80°18'E 13°05'N 10.580 9.219 4.038 43.799 7 Coimbatore 77°05'E 11°06'N 5.500 3.666 3.105 84.692 8 Damtal 76°02'E 32°05'N 0.350 1.165 0.114 9.762 9 Delhi 77°47'E 28°38'N 15.160 22.580 13.978 61.904
10 Dhanbad 85°25'E 23°50'N 16.500 15.167 12.893 85.007 11 Faridabad 77°18'E 28°25'N 36.500 22.584 13.978 61.893 12 Gaziabad 77°25' E 28°40'N 32.600 22.584 13.978 61.893 13 Goa 73°49'E 15°20'N 3.550 0.584 0.000 0.000 14 Gobindgar 76°18'E 30°41'N 13.000 10.662 4.228 39.651 15 Guwahati 91°44'E 26°10'N 6.800 1.192 0.000 0.000 16 Haldia 88°18'E 22°32'N 25.200 12.086 5.467 45.236 17 Hawrah 88°20'E 22°30'N 12.000 12.086 5.467 45.236 18 Hyderabad 78°47'E 17°39'N 12.420 7.470 0.558 7.475 19 Indore 75°54'E 22°42'N 19.200 6.933 0.791 11.409
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Concentrations at monitoring Stations20 Jaipur 75°02'E 28°00'N 17.500 8.047 0.131 1.633 21 Jalandhar 75°18'E 31°19'N 21.270 20.899 2.920 13.972 22 Kanpur 80°24'E 26°28'N 18.110 3.698 0.000 0.000 23 Kolkotta 88°22'E 22°32'N 15.230 12.086 5.467 45.236 24 Kota 75°52'E 25°10'N 6.400 2.415 1.279 52.936 25 Lucknow 80°54'E 26°50'E 16.670 3.698 0.000 0.000 26 Ludhiana 75°54'E 30°55'N 11.600 20.899 13.443 64.324 27 Mumbai 72°52'E 18°56'N 9.870 8.927 6.331 70.917 28 Mysore 76°42'E 12°18'N 10.733 6.176 0.312 5.050 29 Nagpur 79°12'E 21°10'N 6.700 5.952 3.732 62.694 30 Patna 85°12'E 25°37'N 18.400 5.138 0.027 0.525 31 Pondicherry 79°45'E 11°55'N 16.867 15.794 12.359 78.251 32 Rourkela 86°54'E 21°30'N 16.600 12.412 0.557 4.488 33 Shillong 91°53'E 25°34'N 1.200 0.746 0.000 0.000 34 Shimla 77°11'E 30°44'N 2.700 5.360 0.182 3.394 35 Solapur 75°54'E 18°04'N 19.200 7.284 3.107 42.658 36 Talcher 85°15'E 20°48'N 5.600 6.252 3.644 58.282 37 Tuticorin 78°13'E 8°45'N 17.000 1.224 0.000 0.000 38 Udaipur 75°33'E 27°42'N 10.730 1.684 0.000 0.000 39 Vishakhapatnam 83°24'E 17°42'N 16.300 0.999 0.163 16.326
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Concentrations
Observed SO2 v/s PredictedR2 = 0.3509
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Obsereved (ug/m3)
Pre
dic
ted
(u
g/m
3)
Observed- CPCBPredicted- RAINS
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Regions of High Deposition
Cumulative City/Town Long Lat mg/m2-yr
Major TTPs
% Contr by TPPs
Tamluk, Haldia Egra, Kolkata (WB) 88 22 1432.9 365.34 25.497 Baripada (Orissa) 87 22 1157.2 430.11 37.168 Mumbai 72 19 1104.3 51.06 4.624 Bhagalpur, banka (Bihar) Godda (Jharkhand) 87 25 1333.5 601.82 45.131 Bankaru, Bishnupur (WB) 87 23 1062.3 344.56 32.435 Delhi NCR 77 28 982.34 271.1 27.597
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Conclusions
The present scenario is not so alarming- most part of the country below critical level.
But if the current rate of fuel consumption increase, it could create havoc to our ecology.
Though the power plants contribute a very high percentage of SO2 concentrations at many locations, deposition at Critical ecosystem is not much due to TPP
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