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Making the Most from UKCS Exploration
Simon TooleDirector – Licensing, Exploration & Development
Prospex Fair 11/12 Dec 2007
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• UKCS Undiscovered Resource Potential
• Fallow Process Success
• Promote Licence Statistics
• Licensing and 25th Round
• West of Shetland Task Force
• BERR 2007 Promote CD
• DEAL Data Release
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Creaming Curve Analysis
Least Mature
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0
50
100
150
200
300
4-8 8-16 16-32 32-64 64-128 128-256 256-512 512-1024 1024-2048
P50 unrisked recoverable resources (MMBOE)[Only leads with >=5% Chance of Success used]
Southern North Sea / Irish Sea
Nu
mb
er o
f le
ads
250Northern North Sea
West of Shetland
Central North Sea
Ave
rag
e ch
an
ce o
f su
cces
s (%
)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
18
16
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Undiscovered Oil and Gas Resources in the UKCS shown at different levels of Geological Risk
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
0 5 10 15 20
Geological Chance of Success Cutoff (%)
millio
n b
oe
upper estimate
central estimate
lower estimate
Level for BERR
estimate
Potential Undiscovered UKCS Resources
Approx 9.4 bn boe - 3.4 WOS/S - 0.8 NNS - 4.5 CNS - 0.7 SNS
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WOS
SNS & EIS
0.3
3.4
Incl leads > 20% COS
Incl leads > 5% COS
CNS
NNS
0.20.7
0.80.2
1.2
4.5Basin Creaming Curves
vs Lead Database
(bn boe)
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?UKCS Creaming Curvevs Lead Database 2 bn
9 bn
Incl leads > 20% COS
Incl leads > 5% COS
(bn boe)
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Status of 148 released blocks still under evaluation
Activity is on the way – 43 subareas
BR wells committed
FDP in preparation
BR plan in progress
Relinquishment on the way – 52 subareas
Relinquishments are being processed,
BR Drop decision made
Currently under discussion – 53 subareas
Previously drilled but now fallow again
or proposing rescue work plan
or making rescue Drill or Drop decision
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Status of other 155 Fallow Discoveries (current, but some decisions to end 2007 still changing)
Discovery too small – 19
(now just part of fallow block)
Class A – 72
(Pre-development feasibility studies, Well or new seismic AFE'd
Significant studies, Infrastructure full or none available)
Class B – 52
Under discussion (mixture of newly identified and released on website)
Fallow class BR - 12
Rescued with firm plan for activity
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Traditional Vs Promote Licences - Observations from 21, 22 & 23rd Rounds
• Overall similar # licences drilled (21 Prom, 24 Trad).• Anticipated drill rate (full cycle 21st Round) – Trad 13/35
(37%), Prom 16/54 (30%).• As expected, # of Promote wells build later in licence (farm
out required, need to shoot seismic). Associated rig & new seismic time pressure.
• Quick cycling via tough Promote 2 year ‘continuation’ point – typically 40% go through based on ‘firm wells’ or ‘new seismic + contingent well’.
• Overall Promote potentially commercial success rates:
– Exploration wells ~ 30%
– Appraisal wells ~ 70%
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Licensing Strategy
• Annual Rounds
• 25th Round early 2008
• Cumulative Acreage
Incl. SEA 7
• Focussed Terms
Traditional
Promote
Frontier
7
8
6
5
4
3
2
2
1
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WEST OF SHETLAND TASKFORCE
http://www.og.dti.gov.uk/UKpromote/wos_task.htm
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Area of high exploration activity potential
Industry/Government TaskForce addressing gas infrastructure needs
30+ companies with interests in WOS
Ca. 60 licences WOS
West of Shetland Activity
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2007 Promote CD
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Promote CD Opportunities
44 Leads & 5 Discoveries
Maps, Stratigraphic columns and Cross Sections
In Place and Reserve Estimates Play summaries
CD available at DTI stand
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West of Britain North Sea
Unlicensed Opportunities
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5 Leads: (Est Reserve Range)A - 33-51-76 mmboB - 12-19-31C - 17-26-37D - 9-14-20E - 10-16-24
1 Discovery (21/24-4):Untested 35 ft net reservoir17-27-41 mmbo
Multiple Opportunities - 21/24
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One of the largest undrilledUKCS structures:
High Risk with Potential reserves of
1.4 - 2 - 2.8 billion barrels
West of Britain 214/1
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