Livestock and environment: The reverse of the story
Florencia RicardCONICET / UNLPam / GPPS
Which is the environmental reality that we face?
1965
Changes in the surface temperature of the Earth between 1884 and 2016. Areas in blue: colder than average. Areas in red: warmer than average. Source: NASA/GISS - NASA Scientific Visualization Studio
19751985199520052015
Dev
iati
on
of
aver
age
tem
per
atu
re o
f th
e p
lan
et
fro
m p
re-i
nd
ust
rial
tim
es (
°C
)
Increase in the average temperature of the planet and projection of the global climate if a critical thermal threshold is exceeded (Source: Steffen et al., 2018).
0
1
2
3
4
19th century 20th century 21st century
Range of climate
certainty
Range of climate
uncertainty
Breakingpoint
Critical threshold
Global climate
collapse?
1820 1920 2016
Urban and dense settlements
Village
Croplands, residential
Croplands, populated
Croplands, pastoral
Rangelands, residential
Rangelands, populated
Rangelands, remote
Woodlands
Treeless and barren lands
Wild remote(woodland or treeless & barren)
Source: Own elaboration from Goldewijk, et al. (2017).
Evolution of MERCOSUR ecosystems of in the last 200 years
Meat (Cerrado)
Soybean (Amazonia)
Soybean (Cerrado)
Meat (Amazonia)
Brazil
Mill
on
es d
e h
ectá
reas
po
r añ
o
Meat Soybean
Argentina
Mill
on
hec
tare
s/
yr
Destination (meat or soybean production) of hectares deforested in Brazil and Argentina between1996 and 2013 (Source: USDA, 2017).
Main sources of greenhouse gas emissions in MERCOSUR
Source: Ricard (2017) elaborated from Global Emissions EDGAR v 4.2 FT2010 (2013)
Large scale biomass burning
72000
5900
Ton eq-CO2/ha/yr
Enteric Fermentation
32000
2500
Ton eq-CO2/ha/yr
Agricultural soils
9000
1500
Ton eq-CO2/ha/yr
16 % 23 % 12 %
Global distribution of livestock systems
Source: FAO (2019) <http://www.fao.org/livestock-systems/en/>
Regional livestock emissions. Regional total emissions and their profile by commodity are shown. Results do not include emissions allocated to non-edible products and other services.
Source: Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model (2019); FAOSTAT (2019)
MERCOSUR countries account for 23% of the global emissions of livestock
2
4
6
8
10
12
Gig
ato
nn
ese
qC
O2/y
ear
Trend of total emissions from different countries between 1990 and 2015. Source: Le Quéré et al. (2016); GEO-6 (2019).
China USAEuropean
UnionRussia Japan India Brazil Argentina
Agricultural sector of MERCOSUR emits
2.02% of global carbon emissions
Regional strength:Carbon sequestration in
grazing lands
An inventory of emissions is not a carbon balance
Sequestration ??
What do the inventories calculate for the rural sector?
Deforestation/de-vegetation
Burningvegetation
Entericemissions of
cattle
Cultivatedsoils
Application and use of fertilizers
Rice cultivation
Nitrousoxide
MethaneNitrousoxide
C dioxide
Emissions
Methane Methane
Argentina
ForestGrassing
lands
Brazil
Paraguay
Uruguay
Coverage (% of total territory)
7 81
51 42
20 69
5 89
Percentage of territorial occupation of the biomes with the greatest carbon sequestration capacity in the MERCOSUR Region (Source: Goldewijk et al., 2011.)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
50 100 150 200 250 3000
Years of permanent cultivated pasture
% o
rgan
ic c
arb
on
in t
he
soil
Curve of accumulation of organic carbon in the soil after the incorporation of a permanent pasture without grazing on arable land in long-term experimental plots at Rothamsted station in UK.
Source: Jenkinson (1988).
MethodIPCC (2006)
Tierl 1
Revisedmethod
Results of a meta-analysis of 768 cases showing the sequestration of organic carbon (ton/ha/year) in soil of different biomes and climatic regions. Orange box: grazing land.
Source:Viglizzo et al. (2019).
N = 768
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
- 0.2
Soil
org
anic
car
bo
n s
equ
estr
atio
n
(to
n/h
a/ye
ar)
1.2
151
Tropical / subtropical
forest
Temperateforest
75
Coldforest
47
Tropical / subtropical
shrub
43
Temperatearbustal
52
Rangeland / tropical /
subtropical pasture
164
Rangeland / tempered
pasture
122
Rangeland / cold
pasture
48
Steppebush
33
Crops
33
0
200
400
600
800
Carb
on
Balan
ce (m
illto
n C
year-1)
MERCOSUR Uruguay Paraguay Brazil Argentina
Forests and grazing lands sequester carbon
C sequestration C emission C balance
-200
0
200
400
600
800
MERCOSUR Uruguay Paraguay Brazil Argentina
Carb
on
Balan
ce(m
illto
n C
year-1)
Only forests sequester C (Tier 1 IPCC)
Carbon balance (year 2010) in rural lands of the MERCOSUR region applying two different calculation methodologies (Source: Viglizzo et al., 2019).
C sequestration C emission C Balance
0
50
100
150
200
Carb
on
Balan
ce (m
illon
ton
C year
-1)
1970
1990
2010
2016
Detail of carbon balance in the rural sector of Argentina in 1970, 1990, 2010 and 2016 according to the calculation method that considers carbon sequestration in forests and grazing lands.
Sources: C emissions from WRI (2019); C sequestration from Viglizzo et al. (2019)
0
30
60
90
120
150
C credit rural sector
C non-rural emission
Country C balance
Detail of the total carbon balance of Argentina in 1970, 1990, 2010 and 2016 when the carbon surplus or credit of the rural sector and emissions from non-rural sectors are considered.
Sources: C emissions from WRI (2019); C sequestration from Viglizzo et al. (2019)
1970
1990
2010
2016
Carb
on
Balan
ce (m
illon
ton
C year
-1)
Local challenge:To make the puzzle
Emissions according to IPCC method plus estimates of carbon sequestration to estimate the annual carbon balance (ton C / ha / year) in a productive system.
- 0,213
- 0,049
+ 0,164
Carbon emission Carbon sequestration Carbon balance
- 0.160
+ 0.215
+ 0,055 + 0,294
- 0,205
+ 0,499
Carbon emission Carbon sequestration Carbon balance
+ 0,440
+ 0,550
-0,060
Low animal density
+ 0,210
+ 0,550
- 0,340
Mid animal density
- 0,980
0,380
-1.360
High animal density
Emissions according to IPCC method plus estimates of carbon sequestration to estimate the annual carbon balance (ton C / ha / year) in a productive system.
Carbon emission Carbon sequestration Carbon balance
+ 6,800
+ 0,900
Eucalyptus
- 2,350+ 8,250
+ 2,850
+ 0,800
Coniferous
- 2,630+ 4,680
+ 2,820
+ 0,750
- 2,530+ 4,600
Other broadleaf
Emissions according to IPCC method plus estimates of carbon sequestration to estimate the annual carbon balance (ton C / ha / year) in a productive system.
soybean maíze forestation
- 0,05
0,00
+ 0,20
+ 0,08
- 0,51
- 0,13
+ 0,25
+ 0,44
- 0,30
- 0,60
0
+ 0,30
+ 0,60
Car
bo
no
bal
ance
(to
n/h
a/ye
ar)
+ 0,90
wheat
+ 0,12
intense livestockfarming
semi-extenselivestockfarming
extenselivestockfarming
- 0,30
- 0,60
0
+ 0,30
+ 0,60
Car
bo
no
bal
ance
(to
n/h
a/ye
ar)
+ 0,90
+ 0,20
+ 0,08
+ 0,25
+ 0,44
+ 0,12
Systems with surplus or carbon credit (C +)
soybean maíze forestationwheatintense
livestockfarming
semi-extenselivestockfarming
extenselivestockfarming
Balance between sources (emissions) and carbon sinks (sequestration)
Other sectorsCarbon
Emission
Sequestration
Rural sector
Regional strength:Livestock, trade and
environment
Which countries export Frozen Bovine Meat? (2017)
Source: The Observatory of Economic Complexity (2019)
Which countries import Frozen Bovine Meat? (2017)
Source: The Observatory of Economic Complexity (2019)
Beef imports by China
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Mill
on
to
nn
es
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Mill
on
USD
Beef imports from Argentina
Beef imports from Brazil
Beef imports from Paraguay
Beef imports from Uruguay
Beef imports from USA
Beef imports from Australia
Beef imports from ROW
Beef trade
Source: own elaboration from FAOSTAT (2019); The Observatory of Economic Complexity (2019)
% of total beef imports from MERCOSUR
91 1 2 7 1 1 1
0 1 5 6 1320
18
29
2221
4055
59
MERCOSUR region contributes decisively to China's protein consumption….
... but, in addition to the transfer of tangible products, it also transfers intangible goods and services?
?
19% Land under meadows and pastures
20 % fresh water for agricultural use
Percentage of resources saved by China when importing bovine meat from MERCOSUR region
Source: own elaboration from FAOSTAT (2019); AQUASTAT (2019); Rasmussen, et al. (2011); Hoekstra (2012)
35 % C emissions from rural sector(EF and MM)
17.000 tonnes P
63.000 tonnes N
27.000 millions m3 of water
Global transfer of GHG and ammonia nitrogen emissions from China to countries from which it imports food and fodder (Source: Du et al., 2018).
China
Exporting nations
Alfalfa
Rumiants meat
Dairy
Maize
Thousand tonnes ofCO2-eq or ammonium
Soybean
20% GHG6% NH3
Countries like those of MERCOSUR have attributes that are insufficiently valued and disseminated to
provide, at the same time, food and environmental security to countries that lack it. It is necessary to
certify this comparative advantageCan we make it?
Despite imperfectly proven or unfounded criticisms, rural environments in the MERCOSUR
region present more strengths than environmental weaknesses.