![Page 1: Lecture 5 - Financial Planning and Forecasting](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081418/56813cd8550346895da67c5c/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Lecture 5 - Financial Planning and Forecasting
![Page 2: Lecture 5 - Financial Planning and Forecasting](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081418/56813cd8550346895da67c5c/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Strategy
A company’s strategy consists of the competitive moves, internal operating approaches, and action plans devised by management to produce successful performance.
Strategy is management’s “game plan” for running the business.
Managers need strategies to guide HOW the organization’s business will be conducted and HOW performance targets will be achieved.
2
![Page 3: Lecture 5 - Financial Planning and Forecasting](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081418/56813cd8550346895da67c5c/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Strategic Planning
Strategic planning is a systematic process through which an organization agrees on and builds commitment among key stakeholders to priorities that are essential to its mission and are responsive to the environment.
Strategic Planning guides the acquisition and allocation of resources to achieve these priorities.
3
![Page 4: Lecture 5 - Financial Planning and Forecasting](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081418/56813cd8550346895da67c5c/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Strategic Planning versus Operational Planning
Strategic Planning
– formulation–What, where–ends–vision–effectiveness– risk
Operational Planning
– implementation
–how
–means
–plans
–efficiency
–control
4
![Page 5: Lecture 5 - Financial Planning and Forecasting](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081418/56813cd8550346895da67c5c/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Financial Planning and Pro Forma Statements
Financial plans evaluate the economics behind the strategy and operations. They consist of six steps:
1. Project financial statements to analyze the effects of the operating plan on projected profits and financial ratios.
2. Determine the funds needed to support the plan.
3. Forecast funds availability.
4. Establish and maintain a system of controls to govern the allocation and use of funds within the firm.
5. Develop procedures for adjusting the basic plan if the economic forecasts upon which the plan was based do not materialize
6. Establish a performance-based management compensation system.
5
![Page 6: Lecture 5 - Financial Planning and Forecasting](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081418/56813cd8550346895da67c5c/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Steps in Financial Forecasting
Forecast sales
Project the assets needed to support sales
Project internally generated funds
Project outside funds needed
Decide how to raise funds
See effects of plan on ratios and stock price
6
![Page 7: Lecture 5 - Financial Planning and Forecasting](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081418/56813cd8550346895da67c5c/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Sales Forecast
Sales forecasts are usually based on the analysis of historic data.
An accurate sale forecast is critical to the firm’s profitability:
Under-optimistic
Too much inventoryand/or fixed assets
•Low turnover ratio•High cost of depreciation and storage•Write-offs of obsolete inventory
•Low profit•Low rate of return on equity•Low free cash flow•Depressed stock price
Over-optimistic
•Company will fail to meet demand•Market share will be lost
Sales Forecast
7
![Page 8: Lecture 5 - Financial Planning and Forecasting](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081418/56813cd8550346895da67c5c/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
8
Sales Forecast
![Page 9: Lecture 5 - Financial Planning and Forecasting](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081418/56813cd8550346895da67c5c/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
The Percent of Sales Method
This is the most common method, which begins with the sales forecast expressed as an annual growth rate in dollar sale revenue.
Many items on the balance sheet and income statement are assumed to change proportionally with sales.
9
![Page 10: Lecture 5 - Financial Planning and Forecasting](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081418/56813cd8550346895da67c5c/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Step 1 - Analyze the Historical Ratios
*Spontaneous generated funds - increase spontaneously with sales
**
10
![Page 11: Lecture 5 - Financial Planning and Forecasting](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081418/56813cd8550346895da67c5c/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Step 2 – Forecast the Income Statement
11
![Page 12: Lecture 5 - Financial Planning and Forecasting](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081418/56813cd8550346895da67c5c/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
How to Forecast Interest Expense
Interest expense is actually based on the daily balance of debt during the year.
There are three ways to approximate interest expense. Base it on:
Debt at end of year
Debt at beginning of year
Average of beginning and ending debt
More…
12
![Page 13: Lecture 5 - Financial Planning and Forecasting](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081418/56813cd8550346895da67c5c/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Basing Interest Expense on Debt at End of Year
Will over-estimate interest expense if debt is added throughout the year instead of all on January 1.
Causes circularity called financial feedback: more debt causes more interest, which reduces net income, which reduces retained earnings, which causes more debt, etc.
Basing Interest Expense on Debt at Beginning of Year
Will under-estimate interest expense if debt is added throughout the year instead of all on December 31.
But doesn’t cause problem of circularity.
13
![Page 14: Lecture 5 - Financial Planning and Forecasting](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081418/56813cd8550346895da67c5c/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
A Solution that Balances Accuracy and Complexity
Base interest expense on beginning debt, but use a slightly higher interest rate.
Easy to implement
Reasonably accurate
Basing Interest Expense on Average of Beginning and Ending Debt
Will accurately estimate the interest payments if debt is added smoothly throughout the year.
But has problem of circularity.
14
![Page 15: Lecture 5 - Financial Planning and Forecasting](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081418/56813cd8550346895da67c5c/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
15
Step 3 – Forecast the Balance Sheet
15
![Page 16: Lecture 5 - Financial Planning and Forecasting](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081418/56813cd8550346895da67c5c/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
16
Step 4 – Raising the Additional Funds Needed
![Page 17: Lecture 5 - Financial Planning and Forecasting](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081418/56813cd8550346895da67c5c/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
17
2009 Balance Sheet(Millions of $)
Cash & sec. $ 10 Accts. pay. &accruals $ 200
Accounts rec. 375 Notes payable 110Inventories 615 Total CL $ 310 Total CA $ 1000 L-T debt 754
Common +pr stk 170Net fixedassets
Retainedearnings 766
Total assets $2,000 Total Liabilities $2,000
1000
![Page 18: Lecture 5 - Financial Planning and Forecasting](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081418/56813cd8550346895da67c5c/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
18
2009 Income Statement (Millions of $)
Sales $3,000.00Less: COGS (87.2%) 2616.00 Dep costs 100.00 EBIT $ 283.80Interest 88.00 EBT $ 195.80Taxes (40%) +pr.div 82.30Net income $ 113.50
Dividends (Com+Pr $57.50Add’n to RE $56.00
![Page 19: Lecture 5 - Financial Planning and Forecasting](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081418/56813cd8550346895da67c5c/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
AFN (Additional Funds Needed):Key Assumptions
Operating at full capacity in 2009.
Each type of asset grows proportionally with sales.
Payables and accruals grow proportionally with sales.
2009 profit margin ($113.5/$3,000 = 3.80%) and retention ratio (56/114) = .49 will be maintained.
Sales are expected to increase by $300 million.
19
![Page 20: Lecture 5 - Financial Planning and Forecasting](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081418/56813cd8550346895da67c5c/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
20
Assets
Sales0
2,000
3,000
2,200
3,300
A*/S0 = $2,000/$3,000 = 0.667 = $2200/$3,300.
Assets =(A*/S0)Sales= 0..667($300)= $200.
Assets = 0..667sales
Assets vs. Sales
![Page 21: Lecture 5 - Financial Planning and Forecasting](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081418/56813cd8550346895da67c5c/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Definitions of Variables in AFN
A*/S0: assets required to support sales; called capital intensity ratio.
∆S: increase in sales.
L*/S0: spontaneous liabilities ratio
M: profit margin (Net income/sales)
RR: retention ratio; percent of net income not paid as dividend.
21
![Page 22: Lecture 5 - Financial Planning and Forecasting](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081418/56813cd8550346895da67c5c/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
If assets increase by $200 million, what is the AFN?
AFN = (A*/S0)∆S - (L*/S0)∆S - M(S1)(RR)
AFN = ($2,000/$3,000)($300) (0.667) x $300
- ($200/$3,000)($300) (0.067) x ($300)
- 0.0380($3,300)(0.49) = $118 million
AFN = $118 million.
22
![Page 23: Lecture 5 - Financial Planning and Forecasting](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081418/56813cd8550346895da67c5c/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
How Would Increases in Various Items Affect the AFN?
Higher sales:
Increases asset requirements, increases AFN.
Higher dividend payout ratio:
Reduces funds available internally, increases AFN.
Higher profit margin:
Increases funds available internally, decreases AFN.
Higher capital intensity ratio, A*/S0:
Increases asset requirements, increases AFN.
Pay suppliers sooner:
Decreases spontaneous liabilities, increases AFN.
23
![Page 24: Lecture 5 - Financial Planning and Forecasting](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081418/56813cd8550346895da67c5c/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Implications of AFN
If AFN is positive, then you must secure additional financing.
If AFN is negative, then you have more financing than is needed.
Pay off debt.
Buy back stock.
Buy short-term investments.
24
![Page 25: Lecture 5 - Financial Planning and Forecasting](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081418/56813cd8550346895da67c5c/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
What if Balance Sheet Ratios are Subject to Change
We have so far assumed that ratios of both assets and liabilities to sales are constant over time
Sometimes this assumption is incorrect.
25
![Page 26: Lecture 5 - Financial Planning and Forecasting](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081418/56813cd8550346895da67c5c/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
26
Ass
ets
Sales0
1,1001,000
2,000 2,500
Declining A/S Ratio
$1,000/$2,000 = 0.5; $1,100/$2,500 = 0.44. Declining ratio shows economies of scale. Going from S = $0 to S = $2,000 requires $1,000 of assets. Next $500 of sales requires only $100 of assets.
BaseStock
Economies of Scale
![Page 27: Lecture 5 - Financial Planning and Forecasting](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081418/56813cd8550346895da67c5c/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
27
Ass
ets
Sales
1,000 2,000500A/S changes if assets are lumpy. Generally will have excess capacity, but eventually a small S leads to a large A.
500
1,000
1,500
Lumpy Assets – Buying Discrete Units
![Page 28: Lecture 5 - Financial Planning and Forecasting](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081418/56813cd8550346895da67c5c/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
28
What if 2009 fixed assets had been operated at 96% of capacity:
Capacity sales =Actual sales
% of capacity
= = $3,125.$3,000
0.96
Thus, if sales increase to $3,300 fixed assets would only have to increase to 3,300 x .32 = $1,056
Target Fixed Assets/Sales = = = 32%Actual Fixed Asset $1,000 Full Capacity Sales $3,125
![Page 29: Lecture 5 - Financial Planning and Forecasting](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081418/56813cd8550346895da67c5c/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Summary: How different factors affect the AFN forecast.
Excess capacity: lowers AFN.
Economies of scale: leads to less-than-proportional asset increases.
Lumpy assets: leads to large periodic AFN requirements, recurring excess capacity.
29
![Page 30: Lecture 5 - Financial Planning and Forecasting](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022081418/56813cd8550346895da67c5c/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
30