Jesslyn F. Brown
USGS/EROS
Nov 6, 2018
LCMAP Workshop Welcome
LCMAP: Workshop Goals
▪ Land Change Monitoring, Analysis, and Projection (LCMAP)
▪ Provide an update on current status (Version 1)
▪ Algorithm approaches
▪ Analysis Ready Data used in LCMAP
▪ Data Products
▪ New analysis tool: TapTool
▪ Validation
▪ Assessments
▪ Example Application
▪ Get the word out to potential users
▪ Allow interaction with prototype data
▪ Collect feedback
Nov 6-8, 2018 workshop schedule
Tues, Nov. 6
Morning (Webinar)
Welcome
What is LCMAP?
Lessons Learned using ARD in LCMAP
Break
Data and Product Examples
Q&A
Afternoon (On-site)
LCMAP Visualization
Hands-on Data Exploration
Wed, Nov. 7
Morning (Webinar)
Using LCMAP Data to Inform Chesapeake BayRestoration
LCMAP Accuracy Assessment
Break
Land Change in the Piedmont Ecoregion
Q&A
Afternoon (On-site)
Hands-on Exploration
Wrap-up Session
Collect Feedback
LCMAP: The team and a little history
EROS TeamLoveland Tollerud Jenkerson Barber Taylor
Brown Auch Briden Zhou Austin
Gallant Sohl Reker Smith Hill
Vogelmann Rover Pengra Zelenak
Dwyer Sayler Horton Davis
Labahn Xian Bouchard Docktor
University PartnersBoston University
Texas Tech University
State University of New York
Forest Service PartnersCohen
Healy
Schroeder
Yang
What is LCMAP?
Jesslyn F. Brown
USGS/EROS
Nov 6, 2018
LCMAP Vision▪ Provide documentation and understanding of historical land change and contemporary land change
as it occurs. Provide ongoing answers to questions on where, how, and why the landscape is
changing.
▪ Explain how past, present, and future land change affects society, natural systems, and the
functioning of the planet. Assess the impacts of land change locally, regionally, and
nationally. Topical emphases include land-change impacts on weather and climate, the carbon
cycle, water resources, and ecosystem functioning.
▪ Alert relevant stakeholders to important or emerging patterns of land change in their jurisdictions.
▪ Support users in the application of land-change data, information, and science results. This includes
a state-of-the-art applications support capability, aggressive communications and outreach, and
web-based capabilities for accessing all products. Provide “webinars” to explain and share land-
change products and information.
LCMAP: The next generation
▪ Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP)
▪ Builds on rich USGS EROS history of LC R&D
▪ At higher resolutions
▪ Integrated land cover and change
▪ Targets demand for land cover products
▪ Over larger geographic extents
▪ Over longer time periods
▪ With faster delivery
▪ Foundational elements include:▪ Landsat Analysis Ready Data (ARD)
▪ Land change and land cover derived from all available Landsat data
▪ Independent reference data (accuracy assessment)
Basic
vision
and
structure
of LCMAP
ARD: Analysis Ready Data
▪ Reconditioning of theLandsat archive
▪ Based on Collection1, Tier 1 TM-OLIimagery
▪ Radiometric processing to TOA, surfacereflectance, & brightness temperature
▪ All available high-quality observationspackaged in 150 x 150 km tiles
▪ USGS/EROS began distribution of CONUS ARDin October 2017
(adapted from Dwyer et al., Pecora20)
Inputs matter: ARD per-pixel data richness
Estimated from Level-1 metadata
▪ “Per-pixel” datarichness 1982-2017
Doesn’t reflect impact of
ETM+ SLC-off data gaps
LCMAP: Mapping & Monitoring
▪ Continuous Change Detection & Classification (CCDC)
▪ Zhu & Woodcock (2014)
▪ Based on analysis of the time series of available cloud/shadow free Landsat observations L4-L8 (1982-present)
▪ Change detection capability (CCD):
▪ Land cover conversion
▪ ‘Conditional’ changes (e.g. forest thinning, insect outbreaks)
▪ Potential for near real-time change detection capability
Zhu, Z.; Woodcock, Curtis E. (2014). Continuous change
detection and classification of land cover using all available
Landsat data. Remote Sensing of Environment, 144, 152-171.
LCMAP Monitoring using CCDCMethods that allow tracking of gradual and abrupt change over time
Crop f
Date
Landsat Mid-infrared Band
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Year fire occurred
Post-fire recovery
Longer-term recovery
Pre-fire
CCDC Methodology▪ Change monitoring and land cover mapping is based on the use of
the Continuous Change Detection and Classification methods developed by Boston University researchers (Zhu and Woodcock, 2014). CCDC development was funded through a USGS Landsat Science Team award.
▪ All cloud- and shadow-free observations Landsat 4-8 data (1982-present) are used. NLCD data are used for training the land cover classification.
Calculate time segments for each pixel and determine breaks
(changes)
Extract spectral change and classify the time
segment into products
Using xgboost, derive the thematic info and
generate maps
LCMAP Products: Ten Land Cover and Spectral Change and Products
LCMAP: Annual output productsName Description Note
Land Cover ProductsPrimary Land Cover Land cover classification consisting of nine general land cover Classes: Developed, Cropland, Tree Cover, Grass/shrub, Wetland,
types Water, Ice/Snow, Barren
Secondary Land Cover Land cover classification consisting of nine general land cover Alternative cover class with the 2nd highest algorithmic probability,
types same as primary LC classes
Primary Land Cover Confidence A measure of confidence in the primary land cover class Measure from 0 to 100; higher values imply higher levels of
designation confidence
Secondary Land Cover Confidence A measure of confidence in the secondary land cover class Measure from 0 to 100; higher values imply higher levels of
designation confidence
Annual Land Cover Change Indictor of thematic land cover change that has occurred from the Categories that indicate two land cover states, the prior year land
prior year to the current year (in other words, From:To land cover and the current year land cover
cover)
Spectral Change ProductsTime of Spectral Change The day that a spectral change was detected for a given year Provides data indicating location and timing of spectral breaks
Change Magnitude A measure of the spectral magnitude of the change found within Higher values may be indicative of different types of changes
a given year
Time Since Last Change The cumulative number of days since the last spectral change Provides an indicator of how long a location has been in its current
1stoccurred as of July of the given year state
Spectral Stability Period A measure of the amount of time in days that a pixel has been Provides information of the frequency of land surface change
spectrally stable
Model Quality Characterization of time series model quality as it relates to Provides a spatial measure for interpreting LCMAP product results
model input data and model fit
LCMAP: Version 1 prototype results
DevelopedAgriculture
Grassland & Shrubland
Tree CoverWater
Wetlands
Snow & Ice
Barren
▪ Cascades / Columbia Plateau
Primary Cover, 2014
300 km
Version 1 Prototype Tiles
▪ Processing in prototype mode to provide data for initial QA/QC
▪ Eval sites
▪ Eastern region
Visualization of CCDC2010
2016
Basic
structure
of LCMAP
USGS/USFS Validation Collaboration
Joint USGS/USFS Response Design
V.3.0 (5/18/2016)
National Base Sample of
25,000 pixels
Time Sync V3
5 variables x 30 years x 25,000 plots = 3,750,00 manually collected data points
The full set of variables are then cross-walked and aggregated to create output comparable to the LCMAP
legend at each plot for each year of the time series (1985-2016). 750,000 data points – LCMAP Legend
Independent Reference Data
▪ Joint effort with US Forest Service Landscape Change Monitoring System (LCMS)
▪ LCMAP validation & error estimation
▪ Initial sample set: 25,000 points
▪ Spatial extent: CONUS
▪ Characterized across 1985-present
▪ Full TM/ETM+/OLI record
▪ Evaluated for land cover & change
▪ Full Landsat record, high res, and ancillary data
▪ Can be updated ongoing, and/or intensified
(adapted from Pengra et al., Pecora20)
Assessments and Projections
LCMAP ultimately is a capability to continuously track and characterize
changes in land cover, use, and condition and parlay such information into
assessments of current and historical processes of change as a science
foundation to support evaluations and decisions relevant to environmental
management and policy.
Channel dynamics
Energy development
Water quality
Drought monitoringPollinator
landscapes
Wet / dry cycles
Prototype Assessment of Land Change in the Piedmont
Modeling Landscapes Beyond the Satellite Era
HistoricalContemporary
(Satellite Era)
Future
Scenarios
Consistent USGS Land-cover Database
Modeled
(Backcast)Modeled
NLCD
CCDC
Trends
Projections▪ Use of CCDC output to inform FORE-SCE:
▪ Model scenario construction
▪ Short-term “business-as-usual” scenarios, based on simple extrapolation from most recent LCMAP output
▪ Transition probabilities to inform alternative scenarios
▪ Model parameterization▪ “Elasticities” (based on transition probabilities)
▪ Patch characteristics
▪ Spatial distribution
▪ Model Validation / Assessment
LCMAP: Applications Assistance
Communicate and engage with LCMAP user community to:
▪ Grow existing and initiate new partnerships
▪ Align applications with partner requirements
▪ Design cooperative and innovative applications
▪ Develop examples/scenarios of ARD and LCMAP applications
▪ Provide feedback related to future R&D directions
LCMAP: CONUS engineering and production schedule
▪ Version 1 Production is our next big goal: 422 tiles, 10 products for 33 years ~140,000 map products
▪ Have locked down our methodology to produce annual products
▪ Transferred science code to engineering team
▪ Code is being tested on operational system
▪ Starting production November, 2018
▪ Production estimate is approximately 5 months
▪ ~2 months are needed to perform the accuracy assessment
Notional Schedule and Key Milestones
▪ IOC will ‘operationalize’ mapped products derived from CCDC models and US Landsat ARD
▪ Released products verified with LCMS reference data
▪ Released products will be available on Earth Explorer
▪ IOC includes local Science R&D access to IWDS & SEE
▪ Broader/remote access methods under study
US ARD Released CU Ingested into IWDS US Ingest
CCDC SW Beta
L-C/C Product Gen SW Beta
US CCDC Runs Done
First Products Released
CCDC IOC Complete
Ongoing Studies/Plans/Dev
Sentinel-2 ARD
MultiSpectral Scanner ARD
Landsat Collection-2 Global ARD
Science R&D Access
CY17 CY18 CY19
CYQ4CYQ1 CYQ2 CYQ3 CYQ4 CYQ1 CYQ2 CYQ3 CYQ4 CYQ1 CYQ2 CYQ3
Sample Data
▪Prototype results
▪All 10 annual products
▪ 1986-2017 (33 years)
▪H10V03 (Southern CA)
▪Expected to be available by end of 2018 with draft metadata and a product guide
Research and Development
▪ Improve and further systematize change detection
▪ Near-real-time change detection
▪ Research approaches for utilizing different wavelengths and instruments
▪ Refine land cover legend in classification
▪ Research approaches for defining the effect of weather on change detection
▪ Further improve classification methods
▪ Develop plan for updates in subsequent years (annual forward processing)
▪ Research approach to change attribution
LCMAP: For more information
▪ Existing web page is being reworked:
https://eros.usgs.gov/science/land-change-monitoring-assessment-and-projection-lcmap
▪ USGS EROS Center Customer Service:
▪ Email: [email protected]
▪ Phone: 1-800-252-4547
▪ Social media: USGS/EROS twitter and facebook