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Kristie L. Ebi, Ph.D., MPH
North America 2030: An
Environmental Outlook
25 June 2008
Climate Change and Public Health Concerns in North America
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Pathways by Which Climate Change May Affect Human Health
IPCC 2007
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Health Impacts Depend on Multiple Factors
Geographic factors:Baseline climateAbundance of natural resources (i.e. soil, fresh
water supplies)Elevation
Biological sensitivity:Developmental stagePre-existing medical conditions and/or acquired
factors (i.e. immunity)Genetic factors
Socioeconomic factors:May increase likelihood of exposure to harmful
agents/high risk residencesAssociated with underlying diseases that mediate
riskAffect ability to adapt or respond
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Direction and Magnitude of Climate Change Health Impacts
IPCC 2007
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McGheehin
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Extreme Weather
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Projected Ozone-Related Deaths, NY Metro Area, 2050s vs 1990s
Kinney et al. 2006
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Distribution of Lyme Disease, 1991-2000 and 2020
00 1-461-46
47-9047-90
91-15991-159
160-266
160-266
267-433
267-433
434-694
434-694
695-1101
695-1101
1102-1738
1102-1738
1739-2145
1739-2145
Tick abundance at model equilibrium
Ogden et al. Int. J. Parasitol. 2005, 2006
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meanlag1
lo(meanlag1, span = 0.3)
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Temp Alberta Salmonella
meanlag1
lo(meanlag1, span = 0.3)
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20
-0.8
-0.4
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Temp Alberta Campylobacter
meanlag1
lo(meanlag1, span = 0.3)
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20
-1.5
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
Temp Alberta E. coli
meanlag1
lo(meanlag1, span = 0.3)
-20 -10 0 10 20
-2
-1
0
1
2
Temp Nfld-Lab Salmonella
meanlag1
lo(meanlag1, span = 0.3)
-20 -10 0 10 20
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Temp Nfld-Lab Campylobacter
RR of Salmonella increased by 1.2% per degree above - 10˚C
RR of Campylobacter increased by 2.2% (4.5% in Newfoundland) per degree above - 10˚C
RR of E. coli increased by 6.0% per degree above - 10˚C
Fleury et al. 2006
Temperature and Enteric Disease
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EDF/George Mason/NACCHO Survey of Public Health Directors
Department Has Expertise to Assess Health Risks?
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Priority Issues to Address
Increase resilience of public health systemsUniform data indicators and data systemsDecision support tools for climate change
and healthExplicitly incorporate climate change into
transboundary cooperation for:• Air toxics• Vectorborne diseases
Health impact assessments of mitigation and adaptation programs and activities across all sectors