Download - Kidnapping by Terrorist Groups
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Kidnapping by Terrorist GroupsAn International Review
James J.F. Forest, Associate ProfessorUniversity of Massachusetts [email protected]
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Agenda
•What do we know about trends in kidnapping by terrorist groups▫Historical trends▫Geography▫Groups▫Victims
• Source: Global Terrorism Database, 1970-2010
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Historical Trends
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Historical Trends
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Historical Trends
Proportion of Kidnapping Incidents with Monetary Ransom Demands
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Geography
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GeographyCountries Accounting for the Most “Kidnapping by Terrorist” Incidents per Year
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Geography: South AmericaProportion of all Incidents and Kidnapping Incidents
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Geography: Middle EastProportion of all Incidents and Kidnapping Incidents
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Geography: South AsiaProportion of all Incidents and Kidnapping Incidents
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Groups
Percent of all kidnapping incidents per year attributed to select groups
Top Ten Groups Responsible for Kidnapping Incidents in the GTD
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Victims
Top Nationalities Among Victims of Terror-related Kidnapping Incidents, 1970-2010
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Victims
Correlations between Incident Country and Nationality of Victim
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Summary of Findings• Kidnapping by terrorist groups has increased significantly
in recent years; of the 40 years of incidents recorded in the GTD, 25% have occurred in just the past 5 years
• Yet, kidnapping by terrorist groups has remained a fairly consistent (and small) proportion of all terrorist attacks each year since 1970; kidnapping has never been more than 11% of all terrorist attacks in a given year.
• No terrorist group has shown a preference for kidnapping over other forms of terrorist attacks recorded in the GTD
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Summary of Findings
• During the 1970s, left-wing groups were responsible for the largest proportion of kidnapping incidents▫ More of these incidents took place in South America than
anywhere else
• Within last decade, significant decreases in South America
and increases in the Middle East and South Asia.
• In 2010, 67% of all terrorist-related kidnappings occurred in just three countries—India, Pakistan and Afghanistan
• Muslim extremist groups have collectively replaced left-wing revolutionaries as the world’s leading terrorist kidnappers
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Summary of Findings
• Terrorist groups prefer kidnapping victims of specific nationalities. ▫ In most cases, X kidnaps mostly X (Indians in India,
Colombians in Colombia, etc.)▫ In a few cases, X kidnaps Y (Chechens kidnap Russians
not Chechens; Palestinians kidnap Israelis, not Palestinians)
• Most kidnapping incidents have not resulted in outcomes beneficial to the terrorists.
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Future Research Questions
• Why have only a minority engaged in kidnapping?
• Among those terrorist groups which appear to never have kidnapped, are there contextual challenges or self-imposed constraints?
• What factors may influence a terrorist group’s decision-making about whether to kidnap?
• Differences by ideological categories (e.g., do ethno-nationalists typically avoid kidnapping members of own ethnic group?