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KEY QUESTION #2:
WHY DO
POPULATIONS RISE
OR FALL IN
PARTICULAR PLACES?
(8 slides)
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World Death Rates
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World Death Rates
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Birth Rates
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Natural Rate of Increase
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Life Expectancy at birth
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KEY QUESTION #2: WHY DO POPULATIONS
RISE OR FALL IN PARTICULAR PLACES?
• We can trace alarms about population growth back to
1798
– British economist Thomas Malthus published an essay
– In his work he claimed the world’s population was
increasing faster than the food supplies needed to sustain it
– His reasoning:
• Food supplies grow linearly
• Population grows exponentially
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Thomas Malthus on
Population
Malthus, responding to Condorcet, predicted population would outrun food supply, leading to a decrease in food per person.
Assumptions
• Populations grow exponentially.
• Food supply grows arithmetically.
• Food shortages and chaos inevitable.
An Essay on the Principle of Population, 1798
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Food Population
2 2
4 4
8 16
16 256
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KEY QUESTION #2: WHY DO POPULATIONS
RISE OR FALL IN PARTICULAR PLACES?
• His assumptions wound up being false in the long
run…
– Today there is no confines of food production---can grow
lots of things in lots of places
– Today, agricultural goods are exchanged throughout the
world
– New agricultural methods exist today that didn’t in 1798;
acreage of land for farming has grown rapidly
• Example: the Irish potato blight of the 1700s would never
happen today to a wealthy country
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KEY QUESTION #2: WHY DO POPULATIONS
RISE OR FALL IN PARTICULAR PLACES?
• Malthus’s theory still has followers
• Today, they are called “Neo-Malthusians”
– Point out that human suffering is now occuring on a scale
unimagined by even Malthus
– They feel overpopulation should be addressed now
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KEY QUESTION #2: WHY DO POPULATIONS
RISE OR FALL IN PARTICULAR PLACES?
• To calculate demographic change for a
place, we must look at:
– Births, deaths, immigrants & emigrants
• Worldwide TFR right now is
2.6(replacement level is 2.1)
• What do we know about the role of women
that affects the TFR?
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World Population Growth Rate of natural increase (does not take into account immigration and
emigration).
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KEY QUESTION #2: WHY DO POPULATIONS
RISE OR FALL IN PARTICULAR PLACES?
• By 2025, we should have 8 billion people
• By 2050, we should have almost 9.5 billion
• An easy way to look at population growth is calculating “doubling time”
– The amount of time it takes for the population of a place to double
– For the world right now, it is about 58 years
• Took 16 centuries to go from 250 million to 500 million people(in 1650); population then doubled after 170 years, then after 110 years, then after 45 years
• Therefore, doubling time has slightly slowed down
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KEY QUESTION #2: WHY DO POPULATIONS
RISE OR FALL IN PARTICULAR PLACES? • Significant demographic differences exist between regions (as
previous map shows)
• Differences also exist within states
• Great example is India
– Government encourages birth control
– 1970s : forced sterilization on any man with 3 or more kids
– 2004 : India’s most populated state instituted a policy that
required two people be sterilized for a shotgun license; and 5
sterilized for a revolver license
• Wealthy landowners would pay their workers or others to get
sterilized so they could buy guns
– Other issues exist today: people are granted access to housing &
extra food if they get sterilized; sonograms to detect gender are
outlawed because of abortion rate of unborn females
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Population Growth in India
• Significant
demographic
variations occur
within
countries.
– In India,
growth rates
are higher in
the east and
northeast.
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Maharashtra, India. A sign reads “free family planning sterilization
operation” closed in 1996.
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Missing Indian Female Population • Missing female population in India
– Sex determination tests outlawed (1994):
• Nobody ever convicted of infringing the law.
• Ultrasound for “abdominal cyst”: 500 rupees ($11).
• Abortion: 2,000 rupees ($44).
– 25% of all female deaths between the age 16 and 24 are due to
“accidental burns”.
– Between 5,000 and 12,000 “dowry deaths” per year.
– Sex ratio is still declining:
• 962 girls for 1000 boys (1981).
• 945 girls for 1000 boys (1991).
• 927 girls for 1000 boys (2001).
• Can go as low as 770 in some regions.
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KEY QUESTION #2: WHY DO POPULATIONS
RISE OR FALL IN PARTICULAR PLACES? • DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL
– Shows the sequence of stages in population growth
– Involves 4 stages
• 1)LOW GROWTH
– High birth rates, high death rates; little growth
• 2)HIGH GROWTH
– High birth rate, declining death rates; sustained &
significant growth
• 3)MODERATE GROWTH
– Declining birth rate combines with already declining death
rates lead to continued, but slower growth
• 4)LOW GROWTH or STATIONARY STAGE
– Low birth rate, low death rates; very low rate of growth
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The Demographic Transition
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The Demographic Transition (COMPLETE)
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KEY QUESTION #2: WHY DO POPULATIONS
RISE OR FALL IN PARTICULAR PLACES?
• STAGE ONE
– Plagues & famines impacted many regions in history
• STAGE TWO
– Beginning of the Industrial Revolution sent Europe & the
USA into stage 2
– Also, a revolution in agriculture(2nd Agricultural Revolution)
had to occur
• 1st Ag. Rev. was the growing of crops; 2nd involved use of
new technology/techniques
– Rest of the world entered stage 2 in the 1900s
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Beginning of Demographic
Transition
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KEY QUESTION #2: WHY DO POPULATIONS
RISE OR FALL IN PARTICULAR PLACES?
• STAGE THREE
– Urbanization, wealth, contraception & medical advances led many countries from stage 2 to 3
– Roles of women changed dramatically as well(more involved in working than raising families; many had smaller families than in past)
• STAGE FOUR
– The places where women are the most educated & most involved in the labor force are in stage 4
– Stage 4 can even lead to a “Stage 5” where negative population growth occurs
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Fertility Transition in some
Countries, 1962-2004
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Nigeria
Philippin
esEgypt
BangladeshIn
dia
Mexico
Indonesia
Brazil
China
South K
orea
TFR
1962 1982
1990 2000
2004
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Family Planning
Result of Pregnancies, World 2000
63%15%
22%
Live births
Miscariages
Abortions
• Concept – Designed to help families achieve a
desired size.
– 1/3 of the population growth in the world is the result of incidental or unwanted pregnancies.
– 210 million pregnancies in the world per year, of which 100 million are unwanted pregnancies (47%).
– 46 million abortion per year.
– 500,000 women die each year from unsafe abortions.
– 49% of pregnancies in the US are unwanted.
– If women could have only the number of children they wanted, the TFR in many countries would fall nearly to 1.
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Women Using Family Planning