Download - Key Moment In Highway History
Transportation Finance SummitNovember 15-17, 2005
Key Moment In Highway History
50th anniversary of the Interstate: Era of “free roads”
Reauthorization: Federal Commissions on the Future of the Interstate System and the Highway Trust Fund
Current trends in toll applications
The Next 50 years?
TOLL ROAD TRENDS AND FUTURES
Transportation Finance SummitNovember 15-17, 2005
Focus: Tolling As Significant Program
Toll roads as localized/niche product?
or
Significant part of future nationwide highway service?
TOLL ROAD TRENDS AND FUTURES
Transportation Finance SummitNovember 15-17, 2005
TOLL ROAD TRENDS AND FUTURES
Revenues ($B) Used for Highways 2003
Federal State Local Total
Motor -Fuel Taxes $25 $28 $55
Motor Vehicle Taxes $3 $16
$2
$19
Tolls - $5 $1 $6
Property Taxes/Assessments - - $7 $7
General Fund Appropriations $2 $3 $15 $21
Other Taxes and Fees <$1 $3 $4 $8
Investments/Other <$1 $3 $5 $8
Bond Issue Proceeds - $9 $5 $14
Grand Total Receipts $30 $68 $40 $138
Transportation Finance SummitNovember 15-17, 2005
Change Drivers
Congestion vs. current program credibility
New financial/entrepreneurial resources
Demonstration effect of success
Technology enablers
Leadership
TOLL ROAD TRENDS AND FUTURES
Transportation Finance SummitNovember 15-17, 2005
Survey Data
What is the state of play?
Available material
Focus
– Project velocity– Quantities in context– Typology– Implications
TOLL ROAD TRENDS AND FUTURES
Transportation Finance SummitNovember 15-17, 2005
What We Found
TOLL ROAD TRENDS AND FUTURES
Not including TTC
Transportation Finance SummitNovember 15-17, 2005
What We Found
TOLL ROAD TRENDS AND FUTURES
Transportation Finance SummitNovember 15-17, 2005
What We Found
TOLL ROAD TRENDS AND FUTURES
Transportation Finance SummitNovember 15-17, 2005
What We Found
TOLL ROAD TRENDS AND FUTURES
Transportation Finance SummitNovember 15-17, 2005
What We Found
Players
– > 20: Texas, Florida
– 10-15: California, Colorado, Virginia
– Others: Alabama, Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Oregon
TOLL ROAD TRENDS AND FUTURES
Transportation Finance SummitNovember 15-17, 2005
What We Found
Private sector development (of 129 projects)
– 69 are public
– 21 committed to private development/finance– 39 not committed either way– Impact of PAB legislation/SEP 15?
TOLL ROAD TRENDS AND FUTURES
Transportation Finance SummitNovember 15-17, 2005
What it Implies
Federal/State revenues: $100B (2003) to $130B (2010)
Toll revenue share from $5B to $6.5 to stay even
Added toll miles projected (2015):4900 current plus 1440 added (600 HOT)
= 30-40% increase suggests $7B-$10B (toll rates?)
With Interstate deregulation & more conversion:Current toll revenues X 3+ $15 = 10%+ of total F/W revenues
Transportation Finance SummitNovember 15-17, 2005
Future Scenario Issues (FHWA study)
Transportation Institutions with candid focus on mobility
Demonstration of priced network benefits
Full deregulation for toll applications
Institutional innovation – public and private
TOLL ROAD TRENDS AND FUTURES
Transportation Finance SummitNovember 15-17, 2005
Program Futures
TOLL ROAD TRENDS AND FUTURES
OLD STYLE TOLL ROADS
NEW STYLE TOLL
PROGRAM THE HORIZON
Greenfield new capacity context
Extensions and additions Conversions of free roads Conversions of IS
Add-a-lane HOT ETL networks Fill occasional financial gap
Finance most new capacity
Stand alone facilities Beginning toll networks Conventional management
Priced and managed for service
A few ad hoc projects A program of projects
Rationale: market highway services at a price –
Based on dual (?) networks
(possibly more that one service level)
Transportation Finance SummitNovember 15-17, 2005
Finance Futures
TOLL ROAD TRENDS AND FUTURES
Transportation Finance SummitNovember 15-17, 2005
Institutional Futures
TOLL ROAD TRENDS AND FUTURES
OLD STYLE TOLL ROADS
NEW STYLE TOLL PROGRAM
THE HORIZON
Independent state authorities
Regional authorities P/PPs
State DOTs arms length
State DOTs as owner/operators/ facilitators
Use of GEC to develop
Use of concessionaires to develop/operate
Competing Tollway Service Corporations owning and operating road networks
Transportation Finance SummitNovember 15-17, 2005
Implications
1939: The Federal establishment decided to focus on “free” roads, not toll roads (based primarily on lack of traffic)
2006: Beyond “Business as Usual”: Mainstreaming of tolls and pricing?
A true paradigm shift: in finance/development & roles/relationships, public & private
TOLL ROAD TRENDS AND FUTURES