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Addressing the crash crisis:Evidence-based policies for prevention
Johnathon Ehsani, PhD, MPH
Johns Hopkins Center for Injury Research and Policy
Department of Health Policy and Management
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Objectives• Identify the underlying factors of the increase in traffic
fatalities nationwide
• Discuss a range of cost-effective safety interventions and policy strategies to reduce traffic fatalities and improve traffic safety efforts
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What’s happening?
32,000
33,000
34,000
35,000
36,000
37,000
38,000
39,000
40,000
41,000
2014 2015 2016*
Year(*=estimated)
Motor Vehicle Crash Fatalities, 2014-2016
• 2016 marks the first year with 40,000 deaths since 2007
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Why is it happening?Economic growth = More driving = More crashes
89.0
90.0
91.0
92.0
93.0
94.0
95.0
96.0
97.0
29,000
31,000
33,000
35,000
37,000
39,000
41,000
43,000
45,000
47,000
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
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19
87
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89
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91
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97
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99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Car crashes vs. employment rate, 1975-2015
Crashes Unemployment rate (reverse)
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People injured and injury rate per 100M Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT), 1990-2015
Source: 2015 Motor Vehicle Crashes: Overview. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Traffic Safety Facts Research Note. DOT HS 812318.
Number vs. Rate of crashes
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-
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
6-11 12-15 16-17 18-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+
% In
crea
se in
Fat
al C
rash
es
Age of Driver
% increase in drivers involved in fatal crashes, 2014-2015, by age
2015 vs 2014
Who is affected most?
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Percent change in 2016 estimated fatalities by region
Source: Early Estimate of Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities For the First 9 Months of 2016. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Transportation Safety Facts: Crash Stats. Jan 2017.
Who is affected?
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Fatality composition by type of vehicle, 2006 vs 2015
Source: 2015 Motor Vehicle Crashes: Overview. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Traffic Safety Facts Research Note. DOT HS 812318.
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States can address the “big seven”Key evidence-backed issues:
1. Driving while intoxicated
2. Speeding
3. Distracted driving
4. Seat belts
5. Graduated driver licensing
6. Motorcycle deaths
7. Older drivers
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States can address the “big seven”1. Driving while intoxicated
• Mandatory ignition interlocks for DUI2. Speeding
• Automated speed enforcers3. Distracted driving
• Ban cell phone use- even “hands-free”4. Seat belts
• Primary enforcement; every passenger
5. Driver licensing
• Three-tier graduated driver licensing system 6. Motorcycle deaths
• Implement and enforce helmet laws7. Older drivers
• Implement in-person driver screenings
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Evidence-based policy: DUI/DWI1. Encourage mandatory ignition interlock systems for
those convicted of DUI/DWI
2. Support deployment of drug recognition experts
3. Increase use of high-visibility sobriety checkpoints
4. Encourage alcohol problem assessments at time of DUI arrest, and refer to treatment
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Evidence-based policy: Speeding1. Deploy automated speed enforcers in high-risk
areas
– Including school zones, red lights, etc.
2. Support infrastructure design that reduces speeding
– Roundabouts, raised intersections
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Evidence-based policy: Cell phones1. Ban cell phone use while driving
– Including “hands free” systems
2. Encourage primary enforcement
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Evidence-based policy: Seatbelts1. Support primary enforcement policies for
seatbelts
– State and local laws, ordinances
2. Support high-visibility seatbelt enforcement points
– Including child restraint systems
3. Strengthen seatbelt use penalties and fees
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Evidence-based policy: GDL1. Enact 3-tier graduated driver licensing systems
– Tier 1: Learner permit
– Tier 2: Independent driving w/ restrictions
– Tier 3: Independent driving
2. Evidence-based GDL restrictions:
– Up to one year of Tier 1
– Tier 2: Up to 1 passenger
– Tier 2: No night-time driving
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Evidence-based policy: Motorcycles1. Enact mandatory helmet laws for all riders
– “Minors-only” laws are ineffective
– “Uninsured only” laws are ineffective
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Evidence-based policy: Older drivers1. Support in-person screening for older drivers
– Vision, other senses can deteriorate
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What to focus on first?
Mandatory interlocks, 1st-time
offendersAutomated speed
enforcers
Ban cell phone use (even hands-free)
Handheld ban Full ban for teens
DC Good Good Good Fair
Delaware Good Poor Good Fair
Illinois Good Good Good Fair
Indiana Poor Poor Poor Fair
Maryland Good Good Good Fair
Michigan Poor Poor Poor Poor
Minnesota Fair Poor Poor Fair
Ohio Fair Good Poor Fair
Pennsylvania Fair Poor Poor Poor
Virginia Good Poor Poor Fair
West Virginia Good Poor Good Fair
Wisconsin Fair Poor Poor Fair
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What to focus on first?
Primary seat belt laws GDL Score (IIHS)
Motorcycle helmet laws
In-person driver screenings for older
persons
DC Good Good Good Good
Delaware Good Good Fair Good
Illinois Good Good Poor Good
Indiana Good Good Fair Good
Maryland Good Fair Good Poor
Michigan Good Good Fair Poor
Minnesota Good Fair Fair Good
Ohio Poor Good Fair Good
Pennsylvania Fair Fair Fair Poor
Virginia Poor Good Good Good
West Virginia Good Good Good Good
Wisconsin Good Fair Fair Good