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Megumi MUTO Research Fellow, JICA Research Institute [email protected]
June 29, 2010
JICA-WB-ADB Joint Study: Climate Risks and Adaptation in Asian Coastal Mega-Cities (The Case of Metro Manila)
Photo: BBC
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Objectives of the Research
To inform decision makers: - The scale of climate related impacts and
vulnerabilities at the city level - Estimates of associated damage costs - Approaches to prioritize adaptation options Through: i) Determining climate variables at the level of the
city/watershed through downscaling ii) Estimation of impacts and vulnerability through
hydro-meteorological modeling, scenario analysis and GIS mapping
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Bridging Science and Practice
Overall Framework
Methodology
City Case Studies
JICA – ADB – World Bank alliance
JICA – IR3S alliance
E.g. JICA: Metro Manila Coastal Engineering & Storm surge: University of Ibaraki River hydro: CTI International Transport: ALMEC Urban poor: Ateneo de Manila University Firms: National Statistics Office Health: University of Tokyo
Solutions to Operations
- Urban planners, local governments - Concerted donor efforts (e.g. World Bank, ADB, bilateral donors)
Coordinator and economic analysis JICA
(Manila) (HoChiMin City) (Bangkok, Kolkata)
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Flood Prone Areas in Metro Manila
West Mangahan Area
Pasig-Marikina Basin KAMANAVA Area
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Downscale IPCC climate models for temperature increase @2050 for B1 and A1FI scenarios
Assess local effects on precipitation and combine with sea level rise/ storm intensification
Simulate different types of hydraulic effects: 1) through river systems, 2) through sea level rise, and 3) through storm surge at the coast
Based on the flood maps produced for 18 cases (3 climate scenarios x 2 infrastructure scenarios x 3 return periods), estimate socio-economic impact (both direct and indirect) with available data, thus deriving the benefit side of adaptation. Consider investment mix and their costs necessary for adaptation (focusing on flood control infrastructure)
Conduct Net Present Value Calculations
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1 Downscale IPCC climate models for temperature increase @2050 for B1 and A1FI scenarios
Photo: BBC
Photo: BBC
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Global temperature projection by IPCC
Year
2020 2030 2050
Scenario A1FI 0.7K 1.0K 2.0K
B1 0.6K 0.8K 1.3K
Uncertainties in climate models
Uncertainties in the society/economy
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Local temperature change
% change of Precipitation
Future precipitation
IPCC models
IPCC models
observation
IPCC A1FI Scenario (Specified)
Overall procedure
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2 Assess local effects on precipitation and combine with sea level rise/ storm intensification
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Simulation Cases (Case of Metro Manila)
Simulation Case Temperature Rise (oC)
(downscaled)
Increase Rate of Rainfall
(%)
Sea Level Rise (cm) (global)
Storm Surge Height (m)
1 Status quo climate 0 0 0 0.91
2 B1 with storm level at status quo
1.17 9.4 19 0.91
3 B1 with strengthened storm level
1.17 9.4 19 1.00
4 A1FI with storm level at status quo
1.80 14.4 29 0.91
5 A1FI with strengthened storm level
1.80 14.4 29 1.00
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3 Simulate different types of hydraulic effects: 1) through river systems, 2) through sea level rise, and 3) through storm surge at the coast
Photo: JICA
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Upper Watershed of Metro Manila
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Source: (JICA, 2010)
Rainfall Runoff Calibration Hydrographs
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100-year Flood, A1FI under Existing Structures
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Summary of Inundation Area in the Pasig-Marikina Basin
Simulation Case
30-year Flood 100-year Flood
Existing Structures (halfway
through current Master Plan)
Continue Implementing
Current Master Plan
Existing Structures
(Halfway through current Master
Plan)
Continue Implementing
Current Master Plan
1 Status quo climate
34.6 km2 14.7 km2 53.7 km2 29.1 km2
2 B1 42.5 km2 20.8 km2 63.2 km2 40.1 km2
3 A1FI 47.0 km2 22.8 km2 68.0 km2 44.1 km2
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Bridging between research and practice is challenging
A : Flood due to insufficient drainage B : Not covered in our model due to lack of lateral profile data C : Not covered in our model as it is not overflow from Pasig-Marikina River D : Area not covered in our analysis
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4 Based on the flood maps produced for 18 cases (3 climate scenarios x 2 infrastructure scenarios x 3 return periods), estimate socio-economic impact (both direct and indirect) with available data, thus deriving the benefit side of adaptation.
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Direct Impact Assessment Flowchart
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Data from Direct Impact Indirect Impacts Analysis
Flood Affected Buildings
Flood Affected Area and Roads
Traffic Zones
Firms, residential
Income Loss of Income
Trips Generated/ Attracted (Public Mode)
Trips Generated/ Attracted (Private Mode)
Travel Time Delay Cost
Unit rate from Firm, household surveys
Time Value: Public Users “To work” &
“Business” Trips Time Value:
Private Users
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Added up benefits (savings in damages)
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Summary of Damage Costs
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Damage as % of GRDP
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5 Consider investment mix and their costs necessary for adaptation (focusing on flood control infrastructure)
Photo: The New York Times
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Adaptation Measures to Climate Change in Metro Manila
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6 Conduct Net Present Value Calculations
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NPV Analysis
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Conclusion and way forward
1) Costs of damage will be substantial in Asian Coastal Mega-Cities
2)Urban plans and flood protection infrastructure need to take climate risks into consideration
3) Need to address other non-climate factors such as improved management of canals and drains
4) Potential cross-fertilization with disaster risk reduction community