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Crime & Criminal Justice in Chicago: Challenges for the New Mayor
Jens LudwigUniversity of Chicago
March 19, 2019
With Roseanna Ander, Megan Cordes, Max Kapustin, Terrence Neumann, Marc Punkay,
Julia Quinn, Michael Ridgway, Noah Sebek, & Kimberley Smith
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Albert Turnage, age 23 Earron Moore, age 25
Lesean King, age 47
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60.3
50.4
38.9
22.3 20.718.6
11.9
6.33.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70R
ate
per
10
0,0
00 (
201
8)
This is a uniquely American problem
St. Louis Baltimore Detroit Philadelphia Chicago Milwaukee Houston Los
AngelesNew York
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Chicago
Los Angeles
New York City
Prohibition
Right now
Only the 2nd time in
130 years such large
divergence of Chicago
from LA and NYC.
We’re in an unusual time in history heading into this mayoral election
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Gun violence affects the most
disadvantaged
among us the most
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Gun violence affects the most disadvantaged among us the most
6.9
35.6
225.6
White men, 15-24
Hispanic men, 15-24
Black men, 15-24
Homicides per 100,000 (2018)
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What’s so weird about the current conversation
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Solutions
Menu of evidence-based solutions to choose from:
• Increased school funding
• Targeted social services
• Jobs for teens
• Strengthened law enforcement
What would serious solutions cost?
Well into the 9 figures
For targeted social services, for instance, assume $30K / participant, assume reduced violence involvement by 50%
Evans & Owens 2007 J Pub E suggests 10% increase in PD budget reduces homicides by 10%
“Root causes”
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Here’s another (related) criminal justice priority that
will also require additional resources
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Resources also required for Chicago PD consent decree
18
.1
29
.4
NATIONAL AVERAGE CHICAGO PD
POLICE DEPARTMENT SUICIDE RATE PER 100,000
More supervisors
More training
More mental health supports
More investigators for citizen complaints
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LA shows: possible to ↓ crime while ↑ police-community ties
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Homicide Rate per 100K Community Approval of LAPD
Public approval of LAPD
(right axis →)
LA homicide rate per 100,000
(← left axis)
LAPD consent decree
enacted (6/15/01)
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Can we afford to do this?
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$25,000
Annual Household Income
Tax burden in Chicago compared to NYC
for households at different income levels
Taxes higher in Chicago
than NYC by 13-14%
Chic
ago T
axes
Hig
her
Chic
ago T
axes
Low
er
Source: Tax Rates and Tax Burdens in the District of Columbia a Nationwide Comparison
Smart Asset Cost of Living Calculator
*Exact calculations depends on size of family and number
of wage-earners
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$25,000 $150,000
Annual Household Income
Tax burden in Chicago compared to NYC
for households at different income levels
Taxes higher in Chicago
than NYC by 13-14%
Taxes lower in Chicago
than NYC by 15-17%
Chic
ago T
axes
Hig
her
Chic
ago T
axes
Low
er
Source: Tax Rates and Tax Burdens in the District of Columbia a Nationwide Comparison
Smart Asset Cost of Living Calculator
*Exact calculations depends on size of family and number
of wage-earners
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Can we afford not to do this?
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Source: CTU Poll, 1/4/19
0
5
10
15
20
crime education taxes, fees jobs
Public survey: Most important problem facing Chicago
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Crime Lost population & jobs
Julie Berry Cullen and Steve Levitt , 1999 Review of Economics & StatisticsPhilip Cook and Jens Ludwig, 2000 Gun Violence: The Real Costs (Oxford University Press)
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1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
Popula
tion
What would Chicago’s population look like if we had followed New York
City’s homicide trend?
Difference
is 600,000
more
people
Chicago population with NYC homicide rate
Here’s what that means in practice
Chicago actual population
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Fewer residents = fewer taxpayers
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Contributes to inequality of all forms in city
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What’s the long-term future of our city?
Graph shows annual population expressed as a proportion of city’s 1950 population
New York
Detroit
Chicago
New York
Detroit
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What’s the long-term future of our city?
Graph shows annual population expressed as a proportion of city’s 1950 population
New York
Detroit
Chicago
Which direction
will we go?
New York
Detroit
Chicago
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Thank You