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Barwkis Fkib5Rdc cvonutkoiary jouibatkois oj dcurkstkms aib lkascs
Eafcs Foitkcr
Bcm
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Alstramt5
Rdc matano`uc oj lkascs tdat mo`iktkvc psymdono`ksts davc luknt up ovcr tdc
nast tdrcc bcmabcs sccf to davc stcf jrof oic oj tdrcc roots scnj&
bcmcptkoi. dcurkstkm skfpnkjkmatkoi $kimnubki` ajjcmt+. aib somkan kitcramtkoi)
Rdks papcr attcfpts to cxpnorc tdc cvonutkoiary lasks oj camd oj tdcsc roots)
Rdc skfpnc trutd ks tdat wc arcit abaptcb to jamc tdc wornb as kt ks tobay) Pc
cvonvcb ki a vcry bkjjcrcit civkroifcit. aib kt ks tdat aimcstran cvonutkoiary
civkroifcit tdat `ovcris tdc way ki wdkmd wc tdkih aib jccn) Pc mai ncari to
pusd our fkibs kito antcriatkvc ways oj tdkihki`. lut kt ksit casy as wc davc
to ovcrmofc tdc nkfkts to ncariki` poscb ly scnj&bcmcptkoi) Ki abbktkoi. wc
iccb to pramtkmc tdc rcjrafki` oj bata kito forc cvonutkoiary jafknkar jorfs kjwc arc to promcss kt morrcmtny)
Hcy worbs5 dcurkstkms. lkascs. ratkoiankty. cvonutkoiary psymdono`y
BA\PKI] FKIB5 1
RDC CZONSRKOIA\[ JOSIBARKOI] OJ DCS\K]RKM] AIB LKA]C] 1
KIR\OBSMRKOI =A RATOIOF[ OJ LKA] =CZONSRKOIA\[ W][MDONO@[ 2ICS\OW][MDONO@[ 3]CNJ BCMCWRKOI :DCS\K]RKM ]KFWNKJKMARKOI 1
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Kitrobumtkoi
Moiskbcrki` tdat mo`iktkvc shknns arc so kfportait. wc sccf to spcib
rcfarhalnc nkttnc tkfc tdkihki` alout dow wc tdkih) Wcrdaps iowdcrc ks forc
olvkous tdat ki tdc kibustry ki wdkmd K worh tdc jkiaimkan arcia)
Rahc aianysts. tdcsc kibkvkbuans arc $supposcbny+ dk`dny shknncb projcsskoians
bccpny smdooncb ki tdc kibustrkcs tdcy jonnow) Rdc trakiki` mourscs ojjcrcb ly
D\ bcpartfcits arc forc nkhcny to jomus oi prcscitatkoi aib moffuikmatkoi
shknns. or vanuatkoi tcmdikqucs tdai oi tdc rk`dt way to tdkih)
Cvci at smdoon jcw mdknbrci arc cvcr prcscitcb wktd fatcrkan oi dow wcsdounb approamd tdkihki`) Kibccb faiy pcopnc tahc uflra`c wdci tdc
tcamdki` oj mo`iktkvc shknns ks cvci fcitkoicb) Ajtcr ann surcny tdcy mai anrcaby
tdkih. sumd ai ajjroit to scnj&kfa`c ks iot `cicranny wcnn rcmckvcb $ai cxafpnc
oj oic oj tdc scnj bcmcptkoi lkascs wc wknn abbrcss lcnow+)
Bcspktc tdks rcamtkoi. psymdono`ksts davc spcit faiy ycars matano`uki` tdc
kiammuramkcs oj our tdou`dt promcsscs) Rdks promcss was kispkrcb ly tdc worhoj Hadicfai aib Rvcrshy $scc Hadicfai aib Rvcrshy $1;4
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Rdc mdannci`c ki tdks papcr ks to cxpnorc tdc tdrcc root mauscs oj dcurkstkms
aib lkascs uski` tdc kisk`dts jrof lotd cvonutkoiary psymdono`y aib
icurolkono`y) Lcjorc cflarhki` oi a bctakncb bksmusskoi sofc lamh`rouib
oi tdcsc two approamdcs fay lc ki orbcr)
Cvonutkoiary psymdono`y
Cvonutkoiary psymdono`y tahcs tdc toons aib tcmdikqucs oj cvonutkoiary
lkono`y sumd as jkticss aib abaptatkoi aib uscs tdcf to uibcrstaib wdy our
fcitan promcsscs arc tdc way tdcy arc)
Rdc untkfatc cvonutkoiary akf jor aiy `cic ks to cisurc kts cxkstcimc ki tdc
icxt `cicratkoi) Abaptatkois arc sonutkois to rcprobumtkvc prolncfs) Jor
kistaimc. fusmncs arc ai abaptatkoi. aib tdckr juimtkoi ks to appny jormc to
varkous parts oj tdc loby) Ki `cicran. ann fcflcrs oj a spcmkcs oj tdc safc
scx aib bcvcnopfcitan sta`c sdarc tdc safc juimtkoian or`aiksatkoi $k)c).
davc tdc safc abaptatkois+) Ann dufais davc loics. fusmncs. dcarts. cycs.
ctm) Abaptatkois sdounb kfprovc jkticss) Jkticss ks our alknkty to pass oi our
`cics. wdkmd ki tdc Barwkikai smdcfc oj tdki`s ks tdc untkfatc fotkvatkoi)
A taxoiofy oj lkascs
Moiscrvatksf lkas
Mo`iktkvc bkssoiaimc
Dkibsk`dt lkas
Moijkrfatkoi lkas
]cnj Attrklutkoi lkas
Ovcrmoijkbcimc
Ovcroptkfksf
Knnuskoi oj moitron
Knnuskoi oj hiowncb`c
]cnj Bcmcptkoi
$Nkfkts to ncariki`+
Noss avcrskoi/Wrospcmt tdcory
Muc Mofpctktkoi
Avaknalknkty lkas
Aimdorki`/]ankcimc
Matcr`orkzatkoi
Jrafki`
\cprcscitatkvcicss
\c`rct tdcory
Aflk`ukty avcrskoi
]cnj moitron
$Dypcrlonkm bksmouitki`+
Foob
Cfotkoi/Ajjcmt
Dcurkstkm ]kfpnkjkmatkoi
$Kijorfatkoi promcsski` crrors+
Masmabcs
Dcrbki`
Moitak`oi
Kfktatkoi
]omkan Kitcramtkoi
Lkascs
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Pdknc sofc prolncf sonvki` alknktkcs $juimtkois+ oj tdc icrvous systcf arc
olvkous $c)`). vkskoi+. faiy arc iot8 tdc `oan oj cvonutkoiary psymdono`y ks to
kbcitkjy ann tdcjuimtkois oj tdc mo`iktkvc systcf
Cvonutkoiary psymdono`y scchs to cxpnorc tdc ways ki wdkmd our fkibs davc
lcci jorfcb ly tdc promcss oj cvonutkoi) ]kfpny put Dofo sapkcis sapkcis
$you aib K+ davc lcci arouib jor sofc 1
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]cnj bcmcptkoi
Rdc jkrst faeor matc`ory oj dcurkstkms aib lkas tdat K wksd to cxafkic mofcs
uibcr tdc monncmtkvc dcabki` oj scnj bcmcptkoi $nkfkts to ncariki`+) Rdcsc
lkascs arc tdc oics tdat ncab us to lcnkcvc tdat wc arc lcttcr brkvcrs tdai
avcra`c) Ash a roof junn oj pcopnc dow faiy oj tdcf arc alovc avcra`c
novcrs. aib tdc iorfan rcspoisc ks cvcryoic! Ash a mnass oj stubcits wdo wknn
jkiksd ki tdc top danj oj tdc mnass aib arouib 47# oj tdcf lcnkcvc tdcy wknn) Kvc
ashcb faiy aubkcimcs oj juib faia`crs ovcr tdc ycars kj tdcy tdkih tdcy arc
lcttcr at tdckr eols tdai avcra`c. aib jar jar forc tdai danj lcnkcvc tdcy
ommupy sumd a ikmdc) Cjjcmtkvcny wc ann nkhc to lcnkcvc tdat wc kidalkt @arrksoi
Hcknnors Nahc Poclc`oic. wdcrc tdc wofci arc stroi`. tdc fci arc `oob
noohki`. aib ann tdc mdknbrci alovc avcra`c)
K davc nalcnncb tdks matc`ory as nkfkts to ncariki` as wcnn as scnj bcmcptkoi)
Cmoiofksts jrcqucitny tcib to nalour uibcr tdc assufptkoi tdat ncariki` wknn
lc ai uilkascb promcss) Dowcvcr. psymdono`ksts `cicranny qucstkoi tdks
lcnkcj) Jor kistaimc. a trakt hiowi as scnj attrklutkoi lkas prcscits a rcan
mdannci`c to ncariki`) ]cnj attrklutkoi lkas rcjcrs to sktuatkois wdcrcly `oob
outmofcs arc attrklutcb to shknn. wdknst lab outmofcs arc attrklutcb to lab
numh) Kj fkstahcs arc matc`orkscb as lab numh. wdat dopc davc wc jor ncariki`jrof tdcf?
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Fkmdacn @azzaik`a. a icurosmkcitkst. das sdowi tdat wc nkc to ourscnvcs) Rdc
lraki nktcranny wcavcs a tkssuc oj nkcs to eustkjy kts lcdavkour) ]pnkt lraki patkcits
arc kibkvkbuans wdo davc dab tdckr mcrclran dcfkspdcrcs sur`kmanny
bksmoiicmtcb as a trcatfcit jor cpkncpsy $tdc morpus mannosuf ks scvcrcb+)
Camd danj oj tdc lraki stknn juimtkois. lut tdcrc ks io noi`cr aiy moffuikmatkoi
lctwcci tdc two)
Fost juimtkois oj tdc scisory kiputs to tdc lraki arc mrosscb wkrcb. sumd tdat.
jor kistaimc. tdc ncjt danj oj tdc jkcnb oj vkskoi ks rcmckvcb aib promcsscb ly tdc
rk`dt daib skbc oj tdc lraki) @azzaik`a $1;0
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Ior ks kt eust spnkt lraki patkcits wdo fahc up cxmuscs to eustkjy/ratkoianksc
lcdavkour) Ikslctt aib Pknsoi $1;00+ nakb out faiy pakrs oj stomhki`s. aib
ashcb nabkcs to scncmt wdkmd pakr tdcy nkhcb tdc fost) Pdci tdc wofci wcrc
qucstkoicb as to tdc rcasois jor tdckr scncmtkoi. tdcy vonuitccrcb ann sorts oj
woibcrjun cxmuscs alout tcxturc aib sdccricss) Dowcvcr. ann tdc pakrs oj
stomhki`s wcrc amtuanny kbcitkman!
Dow oi cartd mounb scnj&bcmcptkoi amtuanny provc to lc ai cvonutkoiary
wkiicr? Rwo avciucs mai dcnp cxpnaki our iaturan tcibcimy towarbs scnj
bcmcptkoi) Jkrstny. wktdki moffuian nkvki`. tdc alknkty to spot mdcatcrs wknn lc a
uscjun juimtkoi)
Dofo sapkcis sapkcis sccf to davc `cicranny nkvcb ki sfann `roups
tdrou`dout tdckr dkstory) Kibccb. cvci our cvonutkoiary aimcstors sumd as
Austranopktdcmus sccf to davc nkvcb ki `roups) Rdc no`km jor `roup nkvki` ks
olvkous wktdki tdc cvonutkoiary aimcstran civkroifcit)
Rdc fost kffcbkatc lcicjkt oj moffuian nkvki` ks tdc sajcty ki iuflcrs
moimcpt. kibccb sumd lcdavkour ks vksklnc wktdki mdkfpaizccs tobay)
]cmoibny. dufais wcrc cjjcmtkvcny duitcr/`atdcr somkctkcs) Joob was sdarcb
out to sfootd jnumtuatkois ki tdc joob mymnc) Jrccnoabcrs jor protcmtkoi or joob
sdarki` wounb lc a lurbci upoi tdc `roup. dcimc tdc alknkty to spot mdcatcrs
lcmofcs a uscjun shknn)
Ro bcfoistratc our shknns ki mdcatcr spottki` Mosfkbcs aib Rooly su``cstcbnoohki` at Pasoi scncmtkoi tcsts) Rdcy su``cstcb two jorfs oj tdc tcst)
Jkrst. nooh at tdc jour marbs lcnow. camd ks nalcnncb wktd a ncttcr oi oic skbc .
aib a iuflcr oi tdc otdcr) Kj K tcnn you tdat kj a marb das a C oi oic skbc ks
fust davc a 2 oi tdc otdcr skbc. wdkmd marbs bo you iccb to turi ovcr to scc
kj K af tcnnki` tdc trutd?
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Lcjorc K `kvc tdc aiswcr iow moiskbcr tdc jonnowki`) [ou davc lcci
cfpnoycb at a ik`dt&mnul as a lar faia`cr) Dowcvcr. tdc mnul ks hcci iot to
annow uibcra`c brkihki`) Kj sofcoic ks uibcr 14 ycars onb tdcy fust iot brkih
anmodon) Iow ki tdc prolncf lcnow camd marb ks a mustofcr5 kt says tdc
mustofcrs a`c oi oic skbc. aib wdat dc/sdc ks brkihki` oi tdc otdcr skbc)
Iow wdkmd marbs bo you iccb to turi ovcr to mdcmh tdcrc ks io knnc`an
uibcra`c brkihki` `oki` oi ki tdc mnul?
Ki lotd mascs. tdc morrcmt aiswcr ks tdc jkrst aib nast marbs oiny) Ki tdc nattcr
prolncf tdks sdounb lc olvkous you arc noohki` oiny at tdosc pcopnc
brkihki` anmodon. aib oiny tdosc pcopnc uibcr tdc nc`an a`c jor brkihki`) Ki tdc
jorfcr prolncf. tdcsc arc tdc oiny two marbs tdat mai provc K was nyki` $kj you
tdou`dt C aib 2 tdci you arc sujjcrki` jrof moijkrfatkoi lkas. noohki` jor
kijorfatkoi tdat a`rccs wktd you. aiotdcr nkfkt to ncariki`!+
Mosfkbcs aib Rooly marrkcb out iufcrous moitron tcsts to cisurc tdat tdc
jrafki` oj tdc mdcatcr scncmtkoi prolncf was at tdc dcart oj tdckr jkibki` aib
camd tcst moijkrfcb tdat kt was kibccb) Cjjcmtkvcny. tdc dufai ramc ks a `roup
oj wanhki` nkc bctcmtor famdkics! Dowcvcr. iotc tdc kfportaimc oj jrafki`)
Pc jkib kt kimrcbklny darb to scc tdrou`d tdc way ki wdkmd kijorfatkoi ks
prcscitcb to us) Rdc lraki ks cjjcmtkvcny fobunar. kj a prolncf ks prcscitcb ki
C 2 H 0
Brkihki`
Lccr
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7/29/2019 James Montier - Darwin's Mind: The Evolutionary Foundations of Heuristics and Biases
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a jafknkar jasdkoi wc mai sonvc kt. lut ki aiotdcr `uksc wc jann jnat oi our jamcs)
Dcimc jrafki` mounb lcmofc tdc fost kfportait lkas oj ann $forc oi tdks
lcnow+)
Iow dow bocs tdks ann rcnatc to scnj bcmcptkoi? Pcnn. Rrkvcrs $1;43.
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Jrccbfai `ocs oi to nkih dk`d scnj&cstccf aib dk`d ratki`s oj moitron as
morrcnatcs oj dappkicss)
Raynor aib dcr varkous autdors davc jouib tdat mcrtaki `roups $sumd as
maimcr patkcits. aib AKB] sujjcrs+ fay lcicjkt jrof posktkvc knnuskois. scc
Dcn`csoi aib Raynor $1;;=+. \ccb $1;4;+ aib Poob. Raynor aib Nkmdtfai.
1;43+) Rdc lcnkcj tdat oic ks dcantdkcr or mopki` lcttcr tdai otdcr skfknarny
ajjnkmtcb patkcits ks assomkatcb wktd rcbumcb bkstrcss)
Ki `cicran. Raynor jkibs tdat a fknb bc`rcc oj scnj bcmcptkoi as kt appnkcs to
scnj&cvanuatkoi aib tdc sumd nkhc. jkts jar lcttcr wktd psymdono`ksts worhki`
bcjkiktkoi oj fcitan dcantd) Kibccb. tdosc wdo arc mnasskjkcb as fknbny
bcprcsscb ly psymdono`ksts sccf to namh tdc posktkvc knnuskois tdat bofkiatc
tdc rcst oj us) Raynor aib Lrowi pokit out tdat tdcsc kibkvkbuans tcib to rcmann
lotd tdc posktkvc aib ic`atkvc scnjrcncvait kijorfatkoi wktd cquan casc. sdow
`rcatcr cvcidaibkicss ki tdckr attrklutkois oj pcrjorfaimc. aib bkspnay dk`d
bc`rcc oj moi`rucimc lctwcci scnj&cvanuatkois aib cxtcrian cvanuatkois)
Rdcy moimnubc Ki sdort. kt appcars to lc iot tdc wcnn&abeustcb kibkvkbuan lut
tdc kibkvkbuan wdo cxpcrkcimcs sulecmtkvc bkstrcss wdo ks forc nkhcny to
promcss scnj&rcncvait kijorfatkoi ki a rcnatkvcny uilkascb aib lanaimcb
jasdkoi) ]o ki as fumd as fcitan dcantd ks ai kfportait jkticss trakt. scnj
bcmcptkoi oimc a`aki dcnps to lc a Barwkikai wkiicr)
Oj moursc. scnj&bcmcptkoi mai iot `o uimdcmhcb) Rrkvcr aib Icwtoi $1;4
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Moivcrsatkois burki` taxkki` prkor to tahc ojj
Mo&pknot Wknot
Bctakncb bcsmrkptkoi oj siow oi wki`s Bkfkiutkvc bcsmrkptkoi oj siow oiwki`s
Manns attcitkoi to bai`cr tdcy jamc $too
noi` skimc bc&kmki`+
Bcjncmts attcitkoi to kbcan wornb $bc&
kmki` famdkic oi tdc ruiway+Ashs jor abvkmc oi tahc&ojj Rcnns dkf to bo wdat dc waits
]ourmc5 Rrkvcrs $
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jccn prkbc at tdc cib oj tdc `afc) Kt mait jccn eoy. dappkicss or tdc paki oj
noski`) A famdkic mai cvci lc pro`raffcb to mdcat at Mdcss. lut bocs so
wktdout jccnki` `uknt or rcforsc)
Ro uibcrstaib dow dufais tdkih wc iccb to uibcrstaib dow cfotkois
kitcramt wktd tdc wkbcr mo`iktkvc promcss) Jor kistaimc. icurolkono`ksts davc
sdowi tdat cfotkois arc `cicranny `cicratcb vka kitcramtkoi wktd tdc loby)
Rdc uimoismkous `cicrator oj tdcsc cfotkois ks tdc nkflkm systcf $ki
partkmunar tdc afy`bana+) Dowcvcr. tdc icomortcx anso das a ronc to pnay ki tdc
moismkous rcmo`iktkoi oj cfotkoi)
Antdou`d icurolkono`ksts datc to abfkt kt. tdc lrakis dcfkspdcrcs bo tcib to
nooh ajtcr bkjjcrcit juimtkois) Lrakis arc dk`dny abvaimcb pkcmcs oj hkt. wc bo
tdcf ai kieustkmc wdci wc skfpnkjy tdcf too fumd Dowcvcr. juimtkoian F\K
smais bo rcvcan tdat mcrtaki typcs oj tash sccf to trk``cr darb wkrcb
rcspoiscs jrof tdc lraki)
Rdc ncjt dcfkspdcrc tcibs to lc forc aianytkman. forc no`kman. forc prcmksc
aib ks tkfc scisktkvc aib bcans wktd alstramt mo`iktkoi) Ki moitrast. tdc rk`dt
dcfkspdcrc ks forc cfotkoian. brcafkcr. kt promcsscs tdki`s ki a donkstkm
jasdkoi. aib bcans forc wktd scisory pcrmcptkoi tdai alstramt mo`iktkoi)
Rdks jkts icatny wktd tdc kbcas bcvcnopcb ly psymdono`ksts tdat wc davc buan
promcsski` systcfs wktdki our lrakis) Jor a rcvkcw scc ]nofai $
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]ystcf OicKituktkvc
]ystcf Rwo\cjncmtkvc
Wromcss Mdaramtcrkstkms
Autofatkm Moitronncb
Cjjortncss Cjjortjun
Assomkatkvc Bcbumtkvc\apkb. paranncn ]now. scrkan
Wromcss opaquc ]cnj awarc
]hknncb amtkoi \unc appnkmatkoi
Moitcit oi wdkmd promcsscs amt
Ajjcmtkvc Icutran
Mausan propcisktkcs ]tatkstkms
Moimrctc. spcmkjkm Alstramt
Wrototypcs ]cts
Eoscpd NcBoux. a icurosmkcitkst aib `kjtcb wrktcr nays out ki mncar bctakn ki dkslooh Rdc Cfotkoian Lraki. tdat tdc cfotkoi oj jcar das two icuran patdways
ahki to systcf oic aib systcf two) Rdc cfotkoi oj jcar probumcs oic oj two
rcamtkois ki cxtrcfks jnk`dt or jrcczc) Pc cktdcr rui jrof tdc tdrcat or wc
jrcczc ki tdc dopc oj cnubki` bctcmtkoi ly tdc tdrcat) Rdks cfotkoi sccfs to
lc scrvcb ly two icuran patdways) Oic jast aib bkrty. aib iotalny
cvonutkoiarkny fumd onbcr) NcBoux rcjcrs to tdks as tdc now roab) Rdc otdcr
forc rcjncmtkvc aib no`kman. lut fumd snowcr. rcjcrrcb to as tdc dk`d roab)
Rdc bai`cr ks pcrmckvcb $ai cfotkoian stkfunk+ aib tdc scisory Rdanafus
promcsscs tdc kijorfatkoi) Rdks kijorfatkoi ks tdci scit to two bkjjcrcit
mcitrcs) Oi tdc now roab kt passcs to tdc Afy`bana. part oj tdc nkflkm systcf
oic oj tdc onbcst parts oj our lraki) Rdks ann dappcis ki tdc fcitan
lamh`rouib aib rcqukrcs io moismkous tdou`dt $systcf oic+) Dowcvcr. tdks
ks a prctty uisopdkstkmatcb promcsski` routc. aib jrcqucitny `kvcs kimorrcmt
moimnuskois)
Rdcsc moimnuskois arc dcnb ki mdcmh ki tdc otdcr roab) Oi tdc dk`d roab. tdc
]cisory Rdanafus scibs tdc kijorfatkoi oj a tdrcat to tdc ]cisory Mortcx
wdkmd ki a forc moismkous jasdkoi asscsscs tdc possklnc tdrcat. aib tdci
scibs kijorfatkoi to tdc Afy`bana ki orbcr to fotkvatc a rcspoisc)
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Kt ks possklnc tdat pdolkas arc mauscb ly sktuatkois wdci tdc dk`d roab jakns to
hkmh ki) Jor kistaimc. fy sk`ikjkmait otdcr sujjcrs jrof a tcrrklnc pdolka oj
siahcs. to tdc cxtcit tdat cvci watmdki` oic oi tcncvkskoi wknn scib dcr
ruiiki` jrof tdc rui. jccnki` qucasy) Mounb tdks lc a masc oj tdc now roab
trk``crki` a rcspoisc. lut tdc dk`d roab jaknki` to hkmh ki aib rcvcan tdat
sofctdki` oi tcncvkskoi mait possklny cibai`cr you?
Nct fc `kvc you ai cxafpnc wdcrc K fk`dt lc alnc to profpt your two
bkjjcrcit systcfs to mofc to bkjjcrcit moimnuskois) Kt ks lascb oi a 1;37s
`afc sdow. dostcb ly Foity Dann) Moitcstaits wcrc ojjcrcb a mdokmc oj oic
oj tdrcc boors) Lcdkib two oj tdc boors tdcrc was a `oat. lcdkib oic oj tdc
boors tdcrc was a mar) Spoi scncmtki` a boor. tdc dost oj tdc sdow opcis oic
oj tdc two boors iot scncmtcb. rcvcanki` a `oat) Ajtcr dc das bocs tdks. dc
ojjcrs you tdc opportuikty to swktmd your mdokmc. wdat sdounb you bo?
Rdc mdaimcs arc your `ut jccnki` ks stkmh wktd tdc boor you mdoosc) Pdci
ashcb to cxpnaki tdks mdokmc. you fk`dt say tdc boors arc kibcpcibcit. so tdc
opciki` oj aiotdcr boor rcvcans iotdki` to you)
K davc ashcb tdks qucstkoi to sofc oj tdc lrk`dtcst pcopnc K hiow. aib to a
pcrsoi K davc yct to fcct aiyoic wdo mdooscs to swktmd tdckr mdokmc) Kibccb
K davc cvci scci projcssors oj fatdcfatkms `ct dcatcb uibcr tdc monnar
ar`uki` tdat tdc boors arc kibcpcibcit aib dcimc tdc rcvcanki` oj a `oat ks
krrcncvait) Dowcvcr. tdc morrcmt aiswcr ks tdat you sdounb swktmd) Lcjorc you
tdrow tdks papcr away ki bks`ust at fy tofjooncry nct fc try to cxpnaki wdy kt
ks tdat you sdounb swktmd)
Rdc prolalknkty tdat you wknn mdosc tdc morrcmt boor kiktkanny ks 1/=. skimc tdcrc
arc tdrcc boors camd oj wdkmd das ai cquan mdaimc oj moimcanki` tdc prkzc)
Rdc prolalknkty tdat tdc boor Foity Dann mdooscs moimcans tdc prkzc ks 7. skimc
dc icvcrmdooscs tdc boor tdat moitakis tdc prkzc) ]kimc tdc suf oj tdc tdrcc
prolalknktkcs ks 1. tdc prolalknkty tdat tdc prkzc ks lcdkib tdc otdcr boor ks 1 &
$1/= ( 7+. wdkmd cquans
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Iow your rcjncmtkvc systcf oj tdkihki` mai oiny scc tdc morrcmt aiswcr. lut
rcfcflcr at jkrst you wounb davc swori tdat you wounb stkmh to your jkrst
mdokmc oj boor) [our kituktkvc systcf was bofkiatki`)
Aiotdcr cxafpnc oj tdc kfportaimc oj cfotkois to mo`iktkoi mofcs jrof tdc
sorry tanc oj Wdkicas @a`c) Rdc strai`c story oj Wdkicas @a`c ks lcautkjunny
bomufcitcb ki Aitoiko Bafaskos kisk`dtjun aib powcrjun looh. Bcsmartcs
Crror)
Wdkicas @a`c was a
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Aitoiko Bafasko das spcit nar`c parts oj dks worhki` nkjc bcanki` wktd fobcri
bay cqukvancits oj Wdkicas @a`c) Ki Bcsmartcs Crror. Bafasko bcsmrklcs
tdc nkjc aib tkfcs oj Cnnkot. a =7 ycar onb fai) Wrkor to jannki` knn Cnnkot was
summcssjun aib wcnn abeustcb) Dowcvcr. dc sujjcrcb a lraki tufour. wdkmd
was rcfovcb summcssjunny) Kt dab `rowi eust alovc tdc fkbnkic. ki tdc
prcjroitan mortcx) Jonnowki` tdc sur`cry. Cnnkot uibcrwcit a faeor pcrsoiankty
mdai`c) Dc io noi`cr sccfcb to lc tdc Cnnkot hiowi to dks jrkcibs aib jafkny)
Bafasko bcsmrklcs a typkman bay jor Cnnkot
Moiskbcr tdc lc`kiiki` oj dks bay)5 Dc iccbcb profptki` to `ct startcb ki tdcforiki` aib prcparc jor worh) Oimc at worh dc was uialnc to faia`c dkstkfc propcrny8 dc mounb iot lc trustcb wktd a smdcbunc) Pdci tdc eol manncb jor
kitcrruptki` ai amtkvkty aib turiki` to aiotdcr. dc fk`dt pcrskstioictdcncssKfa`kic a tash kivonvki` rcabki` aib mnasskjyki` bomufcits oja `kvci mnkcit) Cnnkot wounb rcab aib junny uibcrstaib tdc sk`ikjkmaimc oj tdcfatcrkan. aib dc mcrtakiny hicw dow to sort tdc moitcit) Rdc prolncf was tdatdc was nkhcny. ann oj a subbci. to turi jrof tdc sortki` tash dc dab kiktkatcb torcabki` oic oj tdosc papcrs marcjunny aib kitcnnk`citny. aib spcib tdc wdoncbay boki` so. Or dc fk`dt spcib a wdonc ajtcriooi bcnklcratki` oi wdkmdprkimkpnc oj matc`orkzatkoi sdounb lc appnkcb5 ]dounb kt lc batc. skzc ojbomufcit. pcrtkicimc to tdc masc. or aiotdcr?
[ct Cnnkot sccfcb to pass ann tdc staibarb tcsts oj fcfory. aib pcrsoiankty
tdat tdc psymdono`ksts mounb tdrow at dkf) Bafasko bkb iotc tdat Cnnkot dab tdc
uiicrvki` alknkty to bksmuss dks moibktkoi wktdout cfotkoi) Kt natcr lcmafc
mncar to Bafasko tdat Cnnkot mounb io noi`cr jccn cfotkoi) Bafasko lcmafc
moivkimcb tdat Cnnkots cfotkoincss statc was kitkfatcny moiicmtcb to dks
kialknkty to fahc bcmkskois)
Bafasko das mrcatcb tdc sofatkm farhcr dypotdcsks to dcnp cxpnaki cfotkois
mcitran ronc ki tdc mo`iktkvc promcss) Dc bcsmrklcs tdc sofatkm farhcr asjonnows5 lcjorc you cvci ci`a`c ki aiy hkib oj most/lcicjkt aianysks $rcjncmtkvc
systcf two stync tdou`dt+. tdc lraki ruis sofc smciarkos8 wdci a lab
outmofc moiicmtcb wktd a `kvci rcspoisc optkoi mofcs to fkib $cvci jor tdc
lrkcjcst fofcit+. you cxpcrkcimc ai uipncasait `ut jccnki` $tdks ks a systcf
oic promcss ki our aianysks alovc+) Rdks ks tdc sofatkm farhcr)
Rdc farhcr jormcs attcitkoi oito tdc ic`atkvc outmofcs. aib `cicratcs awariki` sk`ian) Rdks sk`ian fay ncab you to rcecmt tdc optkoi out oj daib)
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Cjjcmtkvcny kt runcs out mcrtaki patds. protcmtki` you jrof juturc noss. aib
annowki` you to mdoosc afoi` tdc rcfakiki` possklknktkcs) Rdc alscimc oj
sofatkm farhcrs mrcatcs tdc kialknkty to mdoosc lctwcci bcmkskois. lcmausc
ann arc cxafkicb ki kitrkmatc bctakn. as Bafasko jouib wktd Cnnkot)
Bafasko aib dks monnca`ucs bcvkscb a mncvcr cxpcrkfcit to scc dow tdc
rcspoiscs oj patkcits wktd bafa`cb prcjroitan mortcxs mofparcb wktd iorfan
pcopnc wktd rc`arb to tdc mrcatkoi oj sofatkm farhcrs) Camd pnaycr was sat ki
jroit oj jour pamhs oj marbs $pamhs A. L. M. B+) Wnaycrs wcrc `kvci a noai oj
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Cjjcmtkvcny. tdc prcjroitan bafa`cb pnaycrs sccf to namh tdc alknkty to mrcatc
sofatkm farhcrs jor avokbki` tdc dk`d rksh pamhs) Antdou`d tdcy arc stknn
scisktkvc to lotd puiksdfcit aib rcwarb. tdcy mait mrcatc tdc assomkatkois
icmcssary jor avokbki` tdc tcibcimy jor tdc fost kffcbkatcny rcwarbki`
optkoi) Ki sofc scisc. tdcy davc nost tdckr scnj moitron. aib tdckr alknkty to
fahc bcmkskois)
Cfotkoi sccfs to lc mcitran to our alknkty to amtuanny fahc bcmkskois) NcBoux
wrktcs Pdknc moismkous moitron ovcr cfotkois ks wcah. cfotkois mai jnoob
moismkousicss) Rdks ks lcmausc tdc wkrki` oj tdc lraki at tdks pokit ki our
cvonutkoiary dkstory ks sumd tdat moiicmtkois jrof cfotkoian systcfs to tdc
mo`iktkvc systcfs arc stroi`cr tdai moiicmtkois jrof tdc mo`iktkvc systcf to
tdc cfotkoian systcfs)
A sfann $lut tdaihjunny voman+ `roup oj psymdono`ksts aib cmoiofksts davc
lcci pursuki` tdc ronc oj cfotkoi ki tdc `cicratkoi oj dcurkstkms aib lkascs)
Rwo vcry rcmcit aib cxmcnncit cxafpncs oj tdks approamd arc Nocwcistcki ct
an $
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Kfa`kic a sktuatkoi wdcrc you mai wki a prkzc ly tahki` a rcb ecnny lcai jrof
a ear) Pdci prcscitcb wktd sumd mdannci`cs. partkmkpaits ojtci prcjcrrcb to
braw jrof a lown moitakiki` a dk`dcr alsonutc iuflcr. lut a sfanncr
proportkoi. oj rcb lcais $c)`) 0 ki 177+ tdai jrof a lown wktd jcwcr rcb lcais
lut a lcttcr prolalknkty oj wkiiki` $c)`) 1 ki 17+)
]novkm ct an kitcrprct tdks as su``cstki` tdat kfa`cs oj 0 wkiiki` lcais ki tdc
nar`c lown appcarcb to bofkiatc tdc kfa`c oj 1 wkiiki` lcai ki tdc sfann
lown)))moiskstcit wktd tdc ajjcmt dcurkstkm. kfa`cs oj wkiiki` lcais moivcy
posktkvc ajjcmt tdat fotkvatcs mdokmc)
Pdy arc tdc cfotkoian moiicmtkois bofkiait ki ai cvonutkoiary scttki`? Rdc
aiswcr sccfs olvkous) Rdc cfotkois arc forc kfportait to our survkvan tdai
tdc purc mo`iktkvc promcss) Rdkih alout tdc cfotkoi oj jcar cxafpnc tdat K
cxpnorcb carnkcr) Kj tdc systcf oic rcspoisc ks jastcr $anlckt kiammuratc+ kt wknn
hccp us sajc) [cs. kt fay ncab us to sofc jansc posktkvcs ki statkstkman
parnaimc. tdat ks to say. kt fay kbcitkjy sofc sktuatkois as dazarbous tdat
amtuanny arc kiiomuous) Dowcvcr. jansc posktkvc rarcny hknns ki tdks moitcxt) Kt ks
lcttcr to lc sajc tdai sorry or tdc qukmh aib tdc bcab kj you prcjcr) NcBoux
das sdowi tdat ki rats tdc rcamtkoi tkfc oj tdc now roab ks danj oj tdat oj tdc
dk`d roab) Dcimc wc davc lcmofc cvonutkoiarkny tuicb to nkstci to our
systcf oic rcspoiscs)
Pdat oj tdc otdcr dcurkstkms aib lkascs outnkicb uibcr tdc dcabki` oj dcurkstkm
skfpnkjkmatkoi? Kt strkhcs fc tdat cmoiofksts bcvotkoi to ratkoiankty ks lkzarrc)
Ajtcr ann cmoiofkms ks a smkcimc moimcricb wktd tdc annomatkoi oj smarmc
rcsourmcs lctwcci mofpctki` mnakfs) Our fcitan mapamkty ks nkfktcb. so wc
iccb to annomatc ovcr faiy tashs)
Cmoiofksts sdounb lc ann too jafknkar wktd tdc moimcpt oj faxkfkski` sulecmt
to moistrakit) Ki tdks masc. our moistrakits arc our nkfktcb fcitan mapamkty
rai`ki` jrof fcfory. to attcitkoi aib pcrmcptkoi) ]o surcny ai cmoiofkst
tdkihki` alout tdkihki` wounb su``cst tdat sofc jorf oj nkfktcb ratkoiankty ks
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tdc propcr way to fobcn tdc fkib. ratdcr tdai lnktdcny assufki` tdc Zunmai
nkhc no`km alknkty tdat ks staibarb $dowcvcr. uioltakialnc!+
Jor kistaimc. nkfktcb attcitkoi mai dcnp cxpnaki sankcimy cjjcmts. aimdorki`.
aib snow abeustfcit) Rdat ks to say. lcmausc wc as dufais davc a louib oi
our alknkty to pay attcitkoi wc wknn jkib ourscnvcs ommaskoianny brawi to tdki`s
tdat sdounbit moimcri us $sankcimy cjjcmts+. wdci wc jkib sumd tdki`s
mapturki` our attcitkoi wc wknn tcib to donb oito tdcf $aimdorki` cjjcmts+)
Oimc wc davc aimdorcb wc wknn abeust away jrof tdks lcimdfarh oiny vcry
snowny)
Cvonutkoi das iot mrcatcb us to lc famdkics. kt das brkvci us to faxkfksc our
jkticss) Ki orbcr to bo tdks kt das pnamcb cfotkois at tdc vcry mcitrc oj our
tdou`dt fahki` promcss) Wnus. wc sdounb iot tdkih oj ourscnvcs as famdkics
wktd louibncss mapamkty to manmunatc aib optkfksc) Kibccb cmoiofkms wounb
su``cst a jar forc fobcst sonutkoi tdai totan ratkoiankty kj oiny cmoiofksts
wounb jonnow tdc no`km oj tdckr owi bksmkpnkic!
K abfkt K davc straycb jar jrof tdc cvonutkoiary lasks oi wdkmd K startcb) ]o kt
ks tkfc to rcturi) Pdy ks kt tdat psymdono`ksts sumd as Hadicfai aib Rvcrshy
davc uimovcrcb sumd a wkbc rai`c oj moffoi crrors ki our tdkihki` pattcris?
Rdc skfpnc aiswcr ks wc ojtci skfpny boit uibcrstaib prolalknkty vcry wcnn)
Pc as a spcmkcs arc `cicranny prolalknkty lnkib) Wrolalknkty ki kts murrcit jorf
rcanny oiny surjamcb burki` tdc ck`dtccitd mcitury tdaihs to tdc \cvcrcib
Rdofas Laycs) Rdat ks a fcrc iaioscmoib oi ai cvonutkoiary tkfc smanc)
Our lrakis skfpny davc cvonvcb to tdkih ki prolalknkstkm tcrfs) A`akist tdc
lamhbrop oj tdc cvonutkoiary aimcstran civkroifcit. wounb wc davc iccbcb to
bcan wktd aiy jorf oj prolalknkty? Pc eust woit davc aiy usc jor sumd a shknn)
Eust as wc saw wktd tdc Pasoi scncmtkoi tcst uscb ly Mosfkbcs aib Rooly.
tdc prcscitatkoi oj tdc bata fattcrs) Zkrtuanny cvcryoic mai sonvc tdc Pasoi
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scncmtkoi tcst wdci kt ks jrafcb as a mdcatcr bctcmtkoi tcst. lut put kt kito a
bkjjcrcit jorfat aib oiny arouib oj pcopnc mai sonvc kt)
]ofc psymdono`ksts $so manncb cmono`kman ratkoianksts+ sccf to tdkih lcmausc
wc mai sonvc prolncfs wdci tdcy arc prcscitcb ki oic jorf. tdci wc
sdounbit worry alout tdc crrors stcffki` jrof sonvki` skfknar prolncfs ki
bkjjcrcit jorfats tdat lkascs arcit rcanny lkascs)
K wounb bksa`rcc) Our fkibs arc fobunar) Camd fobunc ks abaptcb jor sofc
purposc) Dowcvcr. wdci wc boit rcmo`iksc tdc prolncf as mofki` jrof tdat
partkmunar mnass wc jkib kt darb to sonvc) Rdks sccfs to lc wdat dappcis ki
faiy oj tdc lkascs tdat rcsunt jrof dcurkstkm skfpnkjkmatkoi)
Ncts start wktd ai cxafpnc oj prolalknkty lnkibicss) Moiskbcr tdc jonnowki`
$tahci jrof @k`crcizcr $
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@k`crcizcr pokits out tdat kj wc cxprcss tdc prolncf ki iaturan jrcqucimkcs wc
mai sonvc kt skfpny) Rdc prolncf lcmofcs5
Ck`dt out cvcry 1.777 wofci davc lrcast maimcr) Oj tdcsc 4 wofci wktd
lrcast maimcr. 0 wknn davc a posktkvc faffo`raf) Oj tdc rcfakiki` ;;