IS THE INTERNET MOBILE? MEASUREMENTS FROM ASIA-PACIFIC
[email protected] Development Bureau (BDT)
Opinions expressed may not reflect the views of the International Telecommunication Union or it members
International Telecommunications SocietyAsia-Australasian Regional Conference
Perth, Australia 22-24 June 2003
Contents
• Introduction• Advanced Asia-
Pacific Economies Overview
• Indicators– Usage– Users– Infrastructure– Pricing– Revenue
• Index• Recommendations
Some of the data is estimated or from 3rd parties.
When data only available for one operator, it is used as a proxy for entire economy.
Why measure?
• Mobile has passed fixed & Internet use growing– A logical marriage?
• Non-voice mobile use growing
• Commercial / regulatory / social / analytical implications
0
500
1'000
1'500
1982 88 94 2000
World telephone subscribers,
millions
Fixed Mobile
1'330
1'210
0
200
400
600
800
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
World Internet users, millions
Source: ITU.
What is Mobile Internet?
Browsing Internet from a mobile…
…or accessing Internet from a mobile network?
Overview of advanced Asia-Pacific mobile markets
• Mature– Taiwan, China first
economy in world to have more mobiles than people!
CDMA30%
GSM31%
PDC39%
Mobile cellular subscribers by
technology, advanced Asia-
Pacifc, 2002
Total = 155 million
89106
7868
58626768
Japan
New Zealand
Average
Korea (Rep.)
Australia
Singapore
HK, China
Taiwan, China
Mobile subscribers
per 100 inhabitants,
2002• Mixture of technologies
• Trendsetters in mobile data:– Korea (Rep.) launched
world’s first CDMA2000 1x 3G network in October 2000
– Japan launched world’s first W-CDMA 3G network in October 2001 Source: ITU.
Text messaging
• Not mobile Internet• Most intensely used
non-voice mobile application
• Possible indicator of potential mobile Internet use– Number of messages– Penetration (i.e., % of
subscribers that use it)• Wide variation in region
– Definitions? (e.g., sent & received, ‘junk’ SMS, etc.)
4
7
17
24
111
167
184
HongKong,China
Taiwan,China
Australia
NewZealand
Japan
Korea(Rep.)
Singapore
SMS per subscriber per
month,2002
Note: SMS = Short Message ServiceSource: ITU adapted from various reports.
Traffic: Minutes or Packets?
• Measure in two ways:– Time (minutes of
use)– Volume (kilobytes)
• Few operators publish this data
9 11
148
0
50
100
150
200
A M J J A S O N D
Voice
Data
25262728293031
A M J J A S O N D
DoCoMo (Japan), i-mode, KB/day/sub
Note: 2002. Data MOU is average connection to wireless data network regardless of charging system, time-based or packet-based. Source: KTF, DoCoMo.
KTF (Korea, Rep.), Avg. monthly minutes of use (MOU), 2002
Mobile phone Internet subscribersSubscribers browsing the Internet from their
mobile phone (e.g., Wireless Access Protocol (WAP), i-mode)
16.2%
78.7%
29.0%
44.1%
40.0%
32.3%
Subscribingto mobileInternet
UsingmobileInternet
Accessingpaid
content
Japan
Korea (Rep.)
As % of total mobile
subscribers, August 2002
Source: ITU adapted from Nomura Research Institute & Korea Network Information Center
81.0%
45.0%
7.4%
4.8%
2.9%
1.4%
1.2%
Japan
Korea(Rep.)
Singapore
Australia
Taiwan,China
NewZealand
HK, China
Mobile phone Internet
subscribers as % of total
mobile subscribers,
2002
Source: ITU adapted from various sources
What is an Internet user?
55.2
54.0
48.4
44.9
43.1
42.7
38.3
9.6
0 20 40 60
Korea(Rep.)
Singapore
NewZealand
Japan
HK, China
Australia
Taiwan,China
Internet users per 100 inhabitants, 2002
PC and mobile phone43%
PC only35%
Mobile phone only22%
Internet access usage method, Japan, 2002
Source: ITU adapted from Nomura Research Institute.Source: ITU.
Mobile phone only
High-speed mobile(e.g., GPRS, CDMA2000 1x, W-CDMA)
• Infrastructure indicator– Subscribers to high-speed
mobile data services– Coverage of high-speed
mobile Internet network• Comparability issues
– Not all high-speed networks same (GPRS, CDMA2000 1x, CDMA2000 1x EV/DO, W-CDMA)
– Some operators count handsets rather than subscribers
– A subscriber may not be using high-speed features
– Subscribers may be pay as you go
9.6
28.8
64
114
144
384
2000
2400
GSM/PDC
PDC-P
CDMA
GPRS
CDMA1xRTT
W-CDMAmoving
W-CDMAstationary
CDMA1xEV/DO
Theoretical data
transmission speedkbps
Source: ITU.
High-speed mobileSubscribers & Coverage
10097
90
60
22 26
75
93
99
100
9997
22
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Years after the launch of service
FOMA outdoor coverage
PDC outdoor coverage
PDC service launch
Mar. 1993
FOMA launch
Oct. 2001
51.1%
6.6%
6.4%
2.7%
2.3%
1.6%
0.3%
Korea(Rep.)
Japan
Singapore
HK, China
NewZealand
Taiwan,China
Australia
High-speed Internet
subscribers as % of total mobile
subscribers, 2002
Source: ITU adapted from DoCoMo.Source: ITU adapted from various sources.
Mobile data revenue
• Most popular metric among operators with almost all publishing
• True mobile Internet use is often not separated from message revenues
• May reflect high prices rather than intensity of use
• Two basic indicators:– Mobile data revenue as
% of total mobile revenue– Average Mobile Data
Revenue Per User (ARPU)
19.3%
13.0%
10.6%
10.0%
5.0%
2.9%
2.5%
Japan
Singapore
Korea(Rep.)
Australia
NewZealand
Taiwan,China
HK, China
Mobile data service as per cent of total
mobile revenue, 2002
Source: ITU adapted from various sources.
Mobile pricing
• Two ways of pricing:– Time (length of
period logged on). Generally used for low-speed access.
– Volume (amount of data transferred). Generally used for high-speed access.
• Can also have a subscription plan or “pay as you go”. $3.60
$5.23
$7.69
$8.07
$8.52
$13.19
Korea(Rep.)
Singapore
HK, China
Australia
Taiwan,China
NewZealand
One hour of WAP, circuit
switch access, US$,
2003
Source: ITU adapted from various sources.
High-speed mobile pricing
1 Megabyte (MB) is approximately equivalent to: – 250 emails
(of 200 words) – 20 emails with
attachments – 20 pages of
spreadsheets – 10 web pages
Source: Telstra $2.32
$3.70
$3.90
$5.78
$10.87
$12.46
$12.82
Singapore
NewZealand
Korea(Rep.)
Taiwan,China
Australia
Japan
HongKong,China
High-speed mobile Internet pricing, per MB,
US$, 2003
Source: ITU adapted from various sources.
Mobile Internet Index
• Which economy is doing best overall in mobile Internet?
• Helps to overcome limitations of different data by using a number of variables
• Indicators:– Mobile to Internet Ratio– SMS/sub/month– Mobile telephone Internet
users ratio– High-speed mobile
subscriber ratio– Mobile data revenue ratio
• Mobile Internet Divide
9
12
13
24
25
27
30
Korea(Rep.)
Singapore
Japan
NewZealand
Australia
HK, China
Taiwan,China
Mobile Internet ranking
Total score(Lower = Better)
Source: ITU.
Recommendations
• Agreement on standard list of mobile Internet indicators and definitions
• Government ICT agencies need to collect and disseminate the data (only Hong Kong, China and Taiwan, China publish limited mobile Internet statistics)
• National statistical offices should incorporate mobile Internet questions into ICT surveys
• If mobile is important, then why not PDAs and notebooks? If wireless important, then why not 802.11? So should WiFi also be included as a mobile Internet indicator (e.g., number of users, number of hotspots)?
Mobile Internet
user
Internet enabled cell phone(WAP/GPRS-CDMA2000 1x)
Coverage of high-speed network
Mobile subscriber
HH Surveys• % HH that use wireless to access Inet (mode
of connection)– HKG, 2’200 (via PC), 0.2%– Taiwan, 1%
• % HH using mobile phones to access Inet– Taiwan: mobile phones, 9%
• % individuals that use cellular phone to access Internet (both PC and cellphone; only cellphone)– HKG: 72’200 WAP phone, 2.5%– Japan: 14.8% via mobile phone only
• % of subscribers that use wireless to access Internet – Taiwan: 747’000 WAP and GPRS, 10%
Mobile Internet Data availability
☺KKKKKLKOR
KLL
☺KL
Surveys
KL☺☺L☺TWN
KKKLK LKSGP
KKKLLLNZL
KK☺☺KLJPN
KK☺☺L☺HKG
KKLLLKAUS
PricingRevenueInfra-structure
SubscribersTrafficSMS
☺ Generally available at economy level (from telecom regulator)
K Available from at least one operator
L No primary data available. Estimated or secondary source.
What is Mobile Internet?
3G licenses
1’399Feb-02Auction5Taiwan, China
165Apr-01Auction (Cancelled)#3Singapore
60Jan-01Auction (regional)4New Zealand
2’886Aug-01Beauty contest3Korea (Rep.)
FreeJun-00Beauty contest3Japan
128*Sep-01Auction (pre-qualify)4Hong Kong, China
579Mar-01Auction (regional)6Australia
Amount (US$ m) ~
Date awarded
MethodLicensesCountry
Note: ~ Total amount received for all licenses. Local currency converted at rate at date of license award. * Amount bid was HK$ 4.1 (US$ 0.5) million. In addition, licensees must pay minimum of HK$ 50 million per year or 5% of turnover. Amount shown reflects first five years. # Only one offer was made for each 3G spectrum right so licenses awarded to three bidders.