Download - IOOS & Hurricanes & Fish – Oh My!
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IOOS & Hurricanes & Fish – Oh My! Scott Glenn – Rutgers University
Demand for Fish
Hurricane Forecasting
Regions The Rise of the Regional Scale!
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1000 km Cape to Cape
U.S. IOOS Mid-Atlantic Region - MARACOOS Mid-Atlantic Regional Association Coastal Ocean Observing System
Cape Cod
Cape Hatteras
People
Ports
Critical Habitat
Offshore Energy
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MARACOOS Satellite Data Network
Coldest Dark Pixel SST
Plankton Blooms
River Plumes
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MARACOOS HF Radar Network
Mid-Atlantic HF Radar Network 16 Long-Range CODARs 7 Medium-Range CODARs 17 Short-Range CODARs 41 Total Triple Nested, Multistatic, Dual-Use
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MARACOOS Glider Network
Satellite Ocean Color
Satellite SST
Subsurface Glider Data
MARACOOS MURI
Intl. Missions EPA & NJDEP
Cblast Endurance
OSSE SW06
Many Missions, Many Agencies
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CODAR Network Glider Fleet Satellite Data Acquisi9on Sta9ons 3-‐D Forecasts
MARACOOS Operations Center Rutgers University - Coastal Ocean Observation Lab
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Hurricane Irene approaches MARACOOS Network
Before
After
• Track accurately forecast days in advance.
• Intensity overpredicted.
August 27, 2011
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SST Difference
Global SST
Regional SST
Post-Hurricane Irene Sea Surface Temperatures
But when did the Cooling occur?
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Hurricane Irene Glider Tracks & Temperature
Mixing & Cooling Occurs Rapidly as the
Eye Approaches
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Hurricane Irene SST Sensitivity Hindcast
Maximum Wind Speed Skill Score
Official Forecast
Warm SST Hindcast
Warm SST + OML Model
Hindcast
Cold SST Hindcast
RMS Error 9.43 7.13 7.09 3.61
Global Warm SST Regional Cold SST
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But What About the Fish? Large
Summer-Winter SST
Differences
Produce Migratory Fish Species
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‘Butterfish’ Fall modeled as metabolic thermal response
NOAA Fisheries + MARACOOS = Fish Habitat Models
1998
2006
Favorable
Unfavorable
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Gliders with integrated Fish-Tag Receivers
Satellite Salinity Glider Salinity
Tagged-Fish found in the
freshwater river plume
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Thermal Structure of the Regional Scale Ocean: 1) Feedback on Weather Forecasts 2) Structure Large Marine Ecosystems
64 Large Marine Ecosystems ���
produce 80% of the
World’s Annual Fisheries Yields
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Current Global Population: 7 Billion
But: ��� 800 Million without Clean Water��� 1.0 Billion without Adequate Food���
1.4 Billion without Electricity
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2050 Global Population: 9 Billion
Growth is Concentrated in
Developing Countries
Migration is towards Coastal Megacites
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Climate Change Only
Population Growth +
Climate Change
Future Water Scarcity
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What do we need most?
Educated Young People
• How do we take these students to sea? • How do we reduce the barriers to participation? • How do we build a diverse global community?
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Interactive Science & Education through Cyber-Telepresence
The Ocean is our Classroom - Telepresence
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The Ocean is our Classroom - Omnipresence Global
Challenger Glider Mission
16 Legs with 16 Global-
Class Gliders
Creating the Next Generation of Ocean Explorers