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Introduction to Transportation
Systems
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PART I:
CONTEXT, CONCEPTS AND CHARACTERIZATION
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Chapter 10:
Models and Frameworks
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Models and Frameworks: An Introduction
� Models are mathematical representations of a system.
� Frameworks are qualitative organizing principles for analyzing a system.
� We can use both models and frameworks to do analysis.
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What is our function as transportation professionals?
� Designing better transportation systems
� Using resources, financial andotherwise, effectively in atransportation context
� Operating transportation systemsoptimally
� Maintaining transportation systemsefficiently
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Value-laden words:
� better � effectively � optimally � efficiently
These depend on your point of view.
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A Structure for TransportationSystem Analysis
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LOOP 1: Does the evaluation suggest other alternatives?
LOOP 2: Are the measures of effectiveness appropriate?
Figure 10.1
A Systems Analysis Framework: A First Look
Search for alternatives in the
real world
Prediction of performance,
flows, etc.
Evaluation of alternatives
Reconsider measures of effectiveness
Selection amongalternatives
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The Subtlety in ChoosingMeasures of Effectiveness
Be sure your measures of effectiveness are good
An Urban Area
High Income Low Income Area Area
Center City
I II
Figure 10.2 9
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A Systems Analysis Framework:A Second Look
Search for alternatives in the
real world
Abstraction of real world into
model / framework
Prediction of performance,
flows, etc.
Evaluation of alternatives
Reconsider measures of effectiveness
Selection among alternatives
2
3
1
LOOP 1: Does the evaluation suggest other alternatives?
LOOP 2: Are the measures of effectiveness appropriate?
LOOP 3: Is the “abstraction” good at predicting?
We need to ask, “Is the abstraction any good?” 10
Figure 10.3
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A Systems Analysis Framework:A Third Look
Search for alternatives in the
real world
Abstraction of real world into
model / framework
Prediction of performance,
flows, etc.
Evaluation of alternatives
Reconsider measures of effectiveness
Selection amongalternatives
Insight:Better understandingof system behavior
2
3
1
LOOP 1: Does the evaluation suggest other alternatives? LOOP 2: Are the measures of effectiveness appropriate? LOOP 3: Is the “abstraction” good at predicting?
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Why Are We Modeling?
� Choosing the Best Alternative --Optimization
� System Operation � Learn from Model Building Processes � Insight
“We may gain insight into complex situations by first understanding simpler situations resembling them.”
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Modeling for Negotiation � Prodyut Dutt, in “A Standards-Based
Methodology for Urban Transportation Planning in Developing Countries”, focused on how planners work in developing countries versus the way urban planners work in the developed world. The essence of his research looked at the differences in planning methodologies necessary in the two environments.
� Dutt developed “models for negotiation” -- the idea of transparent models, where rather than shielding the outside world from what was going on within that “black box” model, planners could look into the model and clearly see the assumptions driving the trade-off about location of corridors in urban areas.
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The Model Is a Shaper ofYour World View
� A hammer is a fine tool, but it is not very good for washing windows.
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Modeling Approaches
�
�
�
�
�
�
�
�
�
�
�
Network Analysis
Linear Programming
Non-linear Programming
Simulation
Deterministic Queuing
Probabilistic Queuing
Regression
Neural Networks
Genetic Algorithms
Cost/Benefit Analysis
Life-cycle Costing15
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Modeling Approaches (continued)
� System Dynamics
� Control Theory
� Difference Equations
� Differential Equations
� Probabilistic Risk Assessment� Supply/Demand/Equilibrium
� Game Theory
� Statistical Decision Theory
� Markov Models
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Getting Answers from ModelsDeveloping a model -- an abstraction -- and getting results from it are two different things.
Search for alternatives in the
real world
Abstraction of real world into
model / framework
Prediction of performance,
flows, etc.
Evaluation of alternatives
Reconsider measures of effectiveness
Selection amongalternatives
Insight:Better understandingof system behavior
2
3
1
Can the model be “solved” -- i.e.,
produce results?
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LOOP 1: Does the evaluation suggest other alternatives?
LOOP 2: Are the measures of effectiveness appropriate?
LOOP 3: Is the “abstraction” good at predicting?
LOOP 4: Develop new abstraction.17
Figure 10.5
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Models vs. Frameworks
� Models � Models are a mathematical
representation of reality --quantitative in nature.
� Frameworks � When we talk about a framework,
we are generally talking about aqualitative view of a complex system. It is “a way of thinking” --a way of organizing our thinkingabout a complex system.
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Here is a framework we discussed earlier:
Urban Intercity Inter-national
Public Ownership/Operation
Private Ownership/Operation
Joint Ownership/Operation
Traveler/Pax
Freight
Figure 10.6 19
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Simple vs. Complex Modelsand Frameworks
MODEL FRAMEWORK (Quantitative) (Qualitative)
SIMPLE
COMPLEX
Useful
Not Useful
Useful
Not Useful
Useful
Not Useful
Useful
Not Useful
Figure 10.7 20
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Points for Class Discussion
� Public Transportation � National Transportation Plan � Traffic Light Coordination
What kinds of models and frameworks would you use in each of these cases?
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