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Institute for Ecological Economics
Developing Understanding of Ecological Economic Systems
Thomas MaxwellRobert Costanza
University of Maryland
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Institute for Ecological Economics
Motivation
• Unbridled expansion of human enterprise.
• Depletion of natural life support systems.
• Resource depletion -> global tensions.• Interacting complex systems.• Tremendous uncertainty.• Potentially disastrous consequences.
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Institute for Ecological Economics
Integrated Problem Solving
• Vision– State of the world.– Possible future worlds (postitive &
negative).• What to tweak?
– Expected outcomes of policy adjustments.• Methodology
– Hard problem science.– Adaptive management.
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Institute for Ecological Economics
Science in Service of Society
• Comprehensive systems approach– Conceptual pluralism– Problem driver– Multiscale– Integrated modeling
• Links with policy– Modeling as consensus building tool– Communicating uncertainty
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Institute for Ecological Economics
Collaborative (Visible) Modeling
• Realistic models require multiple teams• Modelers typically not computer scientists• Stake holders must be included• Communication to a wide audience
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Institute for Ecological Economics
Three Stage Modeling Process
• Scoping models– Consensus building
• Research models– Understanding dynamics
• Management models– Exploring scenarios
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Institute for Ecological Economics
Modeling Collaboratory
• Constructivist learning.• Paradigm expansion.
– (narrow,linear,static) ->– (broad,nonlinear,dynamic)
• Conflict resolution.• Consensus building.• Collective decision making.• Develop management scenarios.
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Institute for Ecological Economics
Supporting Collaborative Modeling
• Graphical modeling tools• Modular model development• Transparent high performance
computing• Integrated data access• Integrated visualization• Variety of formalisms and frames
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Institute for Ecological Economics
Graphical Modeling
•Model viewed and manipulated graphically.
•Opens model development to non-programmers.
•Facilitates rapid development of models.
•Enforces modeling standards.
•Facilitates collaboration in model development.
•Graphical representation serves as a blackboard.
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Institute for Ecological Economics
STELLA Model
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Institute for Ecological Economics
Spatial Modeling
Framework
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Institute for Ecological Economics
CavernSoft
Collaborative
Environment
Environmental Hydrology Applications Team
Inputs to multiple models
Environmental Modeling Workbench
Integrated wirelessSensor web
CoupledBio-HydroSimulation
Spatial Modeling Environment
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Institute for Ecological Economics
Two types of modules
• Ecological Modules– No general theory.– Primary focus on modeling.– Examples:
• Macrophytes, Epiphytes, Consumers, Phytoplankton
– Modules developed in Stella/SME.
• Physical Modules– Theory well known (e.g. Navier Stokes).– Primary focus on computation.– Examples:
• hydrodynamics, atmospheric dynamics.
– Modules developed externally and linked to SME.
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Institute for Ecological Economics
Spatial Modeling Environment
• Collaborative Spatial Modeling Workbench• Includes integrated support for:
–Icon-based unit module development
–Module archiving and reuse
–Integration of multiple spatial representations
–Distributed computing
–Web-based modeling & simulation•Configuration, control, and visualization of remote simulations.
–Data access and visualization
–Real-time links to other apps (e.g. Swarm).
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Institute for Ecological Economics
Spatial Modeling Environment
STELLA
PowerSim
SME ModuleEditor
ModuleConstructor
SMML Module Library
ModuleRepository
ModuleBuilder
SimulationDriver
Code Generator
HPC
JavaPortal
Unit model Spatial modelGraphical modeling
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Institute for Ecological Economics
Module Specification Language
•Declarative
•Modular
•Fully visible structure & dynamics
•Supports encapsulation and specialization
•Separate universal specs / site-specific configs
•Platform and operating system independent
•Facilitates extensive simulation services
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Institute for Ecological Economics
Simulation Module Markup Language
• XML-Based Declarative Language
• Simulation Module Specification
• Major Classes:
–Module: Reusable component.
–Variable: Simulation atomic object.
–Action: Performs computation or data IO.
–Event: Orders the execution of Actions.
–Frame: Defines a spatial topology.
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Institute for Ecological Economics
<atom name="CONS_BIOM" id="CONS_BIOM" status="private" type="state" > <port type="input" name="CONS_INGEST" /> <port type="input" name="CONS_EGEST" /> <port type="input" name="CONS_MORT_BIOM" /> <port type="input" name="CONS_RESPIRATION" />
<dynamic event="integrate" type="code" > <code>
( ( ( CONS_INGEST-CONS_EGEST )-CONS_MORT_BIOM ) ) CONS_RESPIRATION ) </code> </dynamic>
<port type="input" name="P1_CONS_IC" /> <port type="input" name="CELL_SIZE" />
<dynamic event="init" type="code" > <doc>
CARBON BIOMASS OF AN AGGREGATED CONSUMER. (KGC). CONSUMERS EXCLUDE THE MICRO ORGANISMS WHICH ARE ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE RESPIRATION FLUXES </doc> <code>
( ( P1_CONS_IC*0.001 )*CELL_SIZE ) </code> </dynamic>
</atom>
SMML Example
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Institute for Ecological Economics
<?xml version="1.0"?>
<!DOCTYPE compound SYSTEM "http://iee.umces.edu/SME/dtd/smml.dtd">
<compound id="PLMD_module" name="PLMD_module" >
<compound id="CONSUMERS_module" name="CONSUMERS_module" location="CONSUMERS_module.xml" >
<port type="output" name="CONS_EGEST" /> <port type="output" name="CONS_MORT_BIOM" /> <port type="output" name="CI_DETR" /> ... </compound>
...
<link name="c__0" origin = "GLOBALS_module.CELL_SIZE" destination = "CONSUMERS_module.CELL_SIZE" />
<link name="c__1" origin = "DETRITUS_module.DET_AVAIL" destination = "CONSUMERS_module.DET_AVAIL" />
<link name="c__2" origin = "DOM_module.DOM_C_AVAIL" destination = "CONSUMERS_module.DOM_C_AVAIL" />
</compound>
SMML Example
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Institute for Ecological Economics
Typical State Variables
• Examples of some typical state variables:– (Dissolved Inorganic) Nitrogen, Phosphorus – Water (Saturated, Unsaturated, Surface, Snow)– Detritus– Macrophyte (Non)Photosynthetic Biomass– Consumers– Deposited Organic Matter– Phytoplankton– Epiphytes
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Institute for Ecological Economics
Agent Based Modeling in SME
• Swarm agents can populate SME landscapes.• SME-Swarm integration:
– http://iee.umces.edu/~villa/swarmsme
• Swarm classes serve as wrappers for:– SME model.– SME grid layers.– SME spatial variables.
• Two-way remote data transfer.• Built on SNI simulation server architecture:
– http://iee.umces.edu/~villa/sni
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Institute for Ecological Economics
Multi-Grid Library•Integrates multiple spatial representations
• Implements space in SME
• Major Components include:–Cell: Spatially referenced area (or volume) element.
–Grid: Distributed set of Cells + links.
–Frame: Hierarchy of distributed Grids.
–Link: Connection between Cells.•Intra-Grid: spatial contiguity.•Inter-grid: scaling relations or mappings.
–Activation Layer: Subset of Cells in a Frame.
–Coverage: Mapping:: Activation Layer -> floats.
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Institute for Ecological Economics
Spatial grid partitioned over processors
Highly parallel application
Recursive N-section: excellent load balancing
Fully transparent to user
Distributed Processing
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Institute for Ecological Economics
Model Calibration toolkit
• Built on MPE toolkit:– http://iee.umces.edu/~villa/svp/
• Calculate performance measure (MPE)– Estimate of match between model & system.– Weighted sum of tests (Bounds, Theil, Freq, etc).
• Search parameter space to maximize MPE.– Evolutionary and gradient searches.
• Params, tests, & searches configured in SME.
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Institute for Ecological Economics
SME Java Portal
•Desktop access to remote supercomputing resources
•Web-enabled ( using java servlets )
•Grid enabled ( using globus gram utility )
•Java applet <-> Java servlet <-> C++ apps
•Portal interfaces include:
–Workspace management
–Module development
–Model configuration
–Simulation initialization, control, & visualization
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Institute for Ecological Economics
WorkSpace Manager
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Institute for Ecological Economics
Documentation PanelDocumentation of selected command
Model PanelHierarchical View of model objects
Associated commands as boxes
Command PanelStructure of selected command
Property Panel Command Arguments
Configuration Manager
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Institute for Ecological Economics
Parameter Editor
Edit Simulation Parameters
Spreadsheet format
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Institute for Ecological Economics
Simulation Control
Control Execution
View Model Structure
Trace Dependencies
View Model Equations
Configure Visualization
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Institute for Ecological Economics
Associates DataSets with Viewers
Creates Viewers
Manages DataSets
ViewServer Control Panel
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Institute for Ecological Economics
2D Animation Viewer
2D Animation Control
Dynamic and manual rescaling
ColorMap editor
Data viewer (point/spreadsheet)
Export as GIF or JPG
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Institute for Ecological Economics
3D Animation Viewer
Dynamic Landscapes
Variable1 -> Altitude
Variable2 -> Color Mouse controlled
navigation
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Institute for Ecological Economics
Image Spreadsheet
Simultaneous display of variables at multiple timesteps Useful for time series comparisons
Configure: start time, time step, magnification, scaling, etc.
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Institute for Ecological Economics
View spatial data Attach to vis panels
Follows animation Export to Stat
packages.
Numerical Spreadsheet
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Institute for Ecological Economics
• Links components: – Circulation (OM3) – Ecology (SME)– Atmospheric coupling
Environmental Hydrology Applications Team
Chesapeake Bay Model
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Institute for Ecological EconomicsEnvironmental Hydrology Applications Team
Collaborative Virtual Environment
Chesapeake Bay data in CVE with Cave5D/Virtual Director
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Institute for Ecological Economics
Example Applications
• Everglades Landscape Model– http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/erd/esr/elm/intro/
welcome.htm
• Patuxent Landscape Model– http://iee.umces.edu/PLM
• Baltimore Ecosystem Study– http://baltimore.umbc.edu/lter
• Illinois TES Models– http://blizzard.gis.uiuc.edu/
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Institute for Ecological EconomicsEnvironmental Hydrology Applications Team
Environmental Hydrology
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Institute for Ecological Economics
SME Distribution
The SME home page:
http://iee.umces.edu/SME3
Includes:– Overview.– Technical documentation.– Publications.– Source code (C++ and java).– Links