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Initial Stakeholder WorkshopState Hazard Mitigation Plan
Hydrologic Impacts
Dr. Richard Palmer, Dr. Ridwan Siddique, and Christina Wu
August 2, 2017
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Objective• Determine impacts of climate change
on extreme hydrologic events throughout the Commonwealth
• Establish return periods of interest• Translate the anticipated changes for
future time periods centered around:– 2040 and 2080 compared to 2000 – Present results in easy to understand
framework1
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GLOBAL CIRUCLATION MODELS IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON EXTREMES
DOWNSCALED METEOROLOGIC DATAHYDROLOGY MODEL
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Watersheds in Massachusetts (HUC 10)
Connecticut CoastalConnecticut Merrimack
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Hydrological Modeling Using HL-RDHM
• Used by the National Weather Service River Forecast Center
• Made up of 2 modules:– Rainfall-runoff (SAC-HT)– Snow melting effect (Snow-17)
• Model runs at a resolution of:– 2x2 km2 or– 4x4 km2
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Hydrological Modeling Using HL-RDHM
• Inputs– ~ 15 Regionally downscaled climate projections (i.e. precipitation and
temperature) as previously presented at a daily time scale– Using these 15 different climate models will provide an estimate of uncertainty
on future flood and drought conditions under two changing climate scenarios (RCP4.5 & RCP8.5)
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Hydrological Modeling Using HL-RDHM• Outputs
– Hydrological model will be validated using historical observations
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Example Output
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Watersheds in Massachusetts (HUC 4)
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Watersheds in Massachusetts (HUC 8)
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GLOBAL CIRUCLATION MODELS WATER RESOURCES SYSTEMS MODEL
DOWNSCALED METEOROLOGIC DATAHYDROLOGY MODEL