Source: Ministry of Tourism, Census 2011, Aranca Research
Policy support
Fourth largest sector in terms of FDI
inflows
Rapid urbanisation bodes well for the
sector
India’s construction market is expected to
be the world’s third largest by 2020
FDI in the sector is estimated to grow to
USD25 billion in 10 years
The number of Indians living in urban
areas will increase from the current 377
million to about 600 million by 2031
India construction market is expected to
more than double to USD649.5 billion by
2020 from USD360 billion in 2010
4
25
FY2012 FY2022
FDI Inflows (USD billion)
CAGR: 20.1%
377
600
2011 2031
Urbanisation (in millions)
CAGR: 2.4%
360.0
649.5
2010 2020
Construction Market
CAGR: 6.1%
• The engineering sector is delicensed; 100 per cent FDI is allowed in the sector
• Due to policy support, there was cumulative FDI of USD14.0 billion into the sector over April 2000 – February 2012, making up 8.6 per cent of total FDI into the country in that period
Growing demand
Source: BMI (Business Monitor International), Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion, Aranca Research
Notes: FDI - Foreign Direct Investment; 2020E - Estimate for 2020
Growing demand
• Demand for residential properties has surged due to increased urbanisation and rising household income
• Growing economy driving demand for commercial and retail space
Attractive opportunities
• Growing requirements of space from sectors such as education and healthcare
• Growth in tourism providing opportunities in the hospitality sector
Policy support
• Allocation of USD2.8 billion for rural housing for FY14 budget
• The government has allowed FDI of up to 100 per cent in development projects for townships and settlements
Increasing Investments
• FDI in real estate of more than USD21.8 billion between April 2000 and November 2012
• During April 2012–January 2013, the real estate sector accounted for 8.8 per cent of total FDI inflows into India
2010–11
Market
size:
USD55.6
billion
2020E
Market
size:
USD180
billion
Advantage
India
• Fragmented market with few large players
• Absorption rate of new residential units across six key cities to increase at a CAGR of 7 per cent to 251 million sq ft in the next two years
Real estate sector
Commercial space
Retail space
Hospitality space
SEZs
• Few players with presence across India
• Of a total supply of 607 million sq ft of office space planned in 10 major cities, around 229 million sq ft would come up during 2012–14
• FDI in multi- brand retail to boost demand
• Fragmented market with few national players
• Of a total planned supply of 81 million sq ft across major cities, around 44 million sq ft would come up during 2012–14
• A competitive market with many players
• Over 121,000 hotel rooms in the country as of 2011
• The hotel industry grew 13 per cent during 2011–12
• The government has formally approved 577 SEZs*
• Majority of the SEZs are in the IT/ ITeS sector
Residential space
Source: Cushman and Wakefield, Knight Frank, CRISIL, Aranca Research
Notes: SEZ - Special Economic Zone. IT - Information Technology, ITeS - Information Technology Enabled Services, * - As of March 2013
Market size of real estate in India (USD billion) Real estate contributes about 5 per cent to India’s GDP
The total revenue generated in FY11 stood at USD66.8
billion
Source: BMI, Aranca Research
Note: CAGR - Compounded Annual Growth Rate
50.1 53.3
55.6
66.8
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11
CAGR: 10.0%
Source: Ministry of Housing and Urban Poverty Alleviation,
RBI, CRISIL, Aranca Research
Note: E - Estimates
Urban-rural housing shortage (million) The urban housing shortage is estimated at 18.8 million in
2012
The housing shortage in rural India stood at 47.4 million as
of 2012
The housing shortage in urban and rural India will be
around 21.7 and 19.7 million units respectively in 2014
Significant increase in real estate activity in cities like
Indore, Raipur, Ahmadabad, Jaipur and other two-tier cities;
this has opened new avenues of growth for the sector
15 18
25 19 21 19 22
34 30
27 27 26
47
20
2001 2005 2007 2008 2010 2012 2014E
Urban Rural
Scenario
Key drivers
Notable Trends
A localised, fragmented market presents
opportunities for consolidation
Few large, pan-India players such as DLF and
Unitech
Rapid urbanisation
Rise in the number of nuclear families
Easy availability of finance
Repatriation of NRIs and HNIs
Demand to grow at a CAGR of 19 per cent
between 2010 and 2014 - 40 per cent of this from
Tier 1 cities
At 3x to 4x, demand-supply gap is highest in the
low and mid income segments
Increase in real estate projects in two-tier and
three-tier cities
Scenario
Key drivers
Notable
Trends
Demand projections across top 7 cities (‘000 units)
350 410
500
600
710
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Demand analysis of top 7 cities (‘000 units) 2010-14
830 800
300
220 180 160 160
Mu
mba
i
NC
R
Pu
ne
Be
ng
alu
ru
Ch
enn
ai
Ko
lka
ta
Hyde
raba
d
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, Aranca Research
Notes: NRI - Non-resident Indian; HNI - High Net-worth Individual
Demand projections across top 7 cities (million sq ft)
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, Aranca Research
Notes: MNC - Multinational Corporation, BFSI - Banking, Financial and Insurance Services;
CBD - Central Business District, SBD - Special Business District, NCR - National Capital Region
Scenario
Key drivers
Notable Trends
Few large developers with a pan-India presence
dominate the market
Operating model has shifted from sales to a lease-
and-maintenance
Rapid growth in services sectors: IT/ITeS, BFSI
and Telecom
Rising demand from MNCs
Demand for office space in Tier 2 cities
Mumbai, NCR and Bengaluru account for 46 per
cent of total office space demand in India
Demand growth projected to be the highest in Tier
2 cities such as Kolkata and Chennai during 2010-
14
Business activity shifting from CBDs to SBDs, Tier
1 to Tier 2 cities
Scenario
Key drivers
Notable
Trends
33
36 39 42 44
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Demand analysis of top 7 cities (million sq ft) 2010-14
39 38 36 30
25 22
10
Be
ng
alu
ru
Mu
mba
i
NC
R
Che
nn
ai
Hyde
raba
d
Pu
ne
Ko
lka
ta
Demand projections across top 7 cities (million sq ft)
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, Aranca Research
Notable Trends
Currently, retail accounts for a small portion of the
Indian real estate market
Organised retailers are few, and the organised
retail space is mostly developed by
residential/office space developers
Booming consumerism in India
Organised retail sector growing 25-30 per cent
annually
Entry of MNC retailers
NCR accounts for about 30 per cent of the total
mall supply
About 53 per cent of demand for total mall space in
India expected to come from top seven cities
Demand for retail space on high streets is quite
high, as well Increase in FDI limit for multi-brand
retail will lead to significantly higher demand for
retail space
Scenario
Key drivers
Notable Trends
Scenario
Key drivers
Notable
Trends
3
4 5
7
10
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Demand analysis of top 7 cities (million sq ft) 2010-14
8 7
6
3 2 2 2
Be
ng
alu
ru
Mu
mba
i
NC
R
Ko
lka
ta
Pu
ne
Hyde
raba
d
Che
nn
ai
Source: Knight Frank India, Aranca Research
Notes: FSI - Floor Space Index
NCR and Mumbai are by far the biggest hospitality
markets in India, followed by Bengaluru,
Hyderabad and Chennai
Besides hotels, the hospitality market comprises
serviced apartments and convention centres
A robust domestic tourism industry
The increasingly global nature of Indian
businesses boosting business travel
Tax incentives for hotels and higher FSI
Serviced apartments appear particularly attractive
within the hospitality space
Government initiatives to promote tourism in Tier 2
and Tier 3 cities is generating significant demand
for hotels in such cities, especially for budget
hotels
Scenario
Key drivers
Notable Trends
Scenario
Key drivers
Notable
Trends
Demand projections (no of rooms)
Demand analysis of top 7 cities (no of rooms) 2010-14
32,660 35,503 38,789
43,828
2010 2011 2012 2013
10,519 10,519
4,821
3,945 3,506 2,630
1,315
NC
R
Mu
mba
i
Hyde
raba
d
Be
ng
alu
ru
Che
nn
ai
Pu
ne
Ko
lka
ta
Growth drivers
Growth in tourism
Epidemological
changes
Policy support Easier financing
Growing economy
Urbanisation
Real GDP growth rates of major economies The Indian economy experienced robust growth in the past
decade and is expected to be one of the fastest growing
economies in the coming years
Demand for commercial property is being driven by the
country’s economic growth
Source: IMF, Aranca Research
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F
China
India
Advanced economies
Emerging and developing economies
Population breakup of India (million) The increasing urban population is expected to cross 600
million by 2031
Urbanisation and growing household income is driving
demand for residential real estate and growth in the retail
sector
Source: Indian Census, Knight Frank,
Mckinsey estimates, Aranca Research
Note: E - Estimate
220 290
377
600
856 1,040
1,210
1,470
1991 2001 2011 2030E
Urban Population Total Population
Foreign tourists arriving in India (million) In 2012, 6.6 million foreign tourists are estimated to have
arrived in India
The number of foreign tourists arriving in India expanded at
a CAGR of 5.3 per cent during 2007–12
Source: Ministry of Tourism, Aranca Research
4.4 5.1 5.3 5.2
5.8 6.3
6.6
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
CAGR: 5.3%
Foreign exchange earnings from tourism in India
(USD billion)
India is estimated to have earned about USD17.7 billion
from the tourism sector in 2012
The growing inflows from tourists is expected to provide a
fillip to the hospitality sector
Source: Ministry of Tourism, Aranca Research
Note: H1 2012 - Figures up to 2012 (Jan-June )
8.6
10.7 11.7 11.4
14.2
16.6
17.7
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
CAGR: 10.6%
FDI in real estate as a per cent of total FDI in India Total FDI in the real estate sector during April 2000–
January 2013 stood at around USD22 billion
Currently, real estate and construction accounts for over 22
per cent of total FDI, up from less than 4 per cent in 2006
Source: Dept of Industrial Policy & Promotion, Aranca Research
2.7 %
6.3 % 7.1 %
7.4 %
11.1 %
0.7 %
3.0 %
8.9 %
10.3 % 11.0 %
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Construction activities Real estate
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, Venture Intelligence, Aranca Research
Major acquisitions in real sector in India There have been 110 deals in the real estate space
between 2001 and the first half of 2011
The biggest disclosed deal was the acquisition of DLF
Assets’ shares by Caraf Builders for USD696 million Target Acquirer
Value
(USD
million)
Year
Caraf Builders DLF Assets ltd 696.5 2009
Cowtown Land
Dvlp Pvt Ltd Lodha Group 513.6 2011
Compact Disc film
city Jeff Morgan 320 2011
Oceanus Real
Estate Warburg Pincus 318 2011
Indiabulls
Properties Pvt Ltd
Indiabulls Property
Invest Trust 223.1 2012
Embassy Property Blackstone 200 2012
Source: Grant Thornton, Venture Intelligence, Aranca Research
Top 5 PE deals in Indian real estate sector in 2012 Of the 43 private equity (PE) investments witnessed in the
sector during 2012, 35 had an announced value of USD1.14
billion
In terms of volume, residential projects accounted for 65 per
cent of overall investments in the sector during 2012, while
commercial projects accounted for 16 per cent
Foreign funds constituted almost 80 per cent of total
investments in the sector compared with 50 per cent in 2011
Mumbai continued to remain the hotspot for PE
investments, followed by Bengaluru and NCR
A shift in trend is evident from the fact that the maximum
number of PE deals in the year were executed through
Special Purpose Vehicles (SPV) as against via both entity
and SPV modes in the previous year
Another major trend evident in recent times is the increasing
focus of private PE players on high-end and luxury projects
Investor Investee Investment
(USD million)
Blackstone
Manyata
Embassy
Business Park
160.0
APG and Group of
investors
Godrej
Properties 140.8
Government of Singapore
Investment Corporation
(GIC)
Godrej
Properties 98.2
Morgan Stanley Real
Estate Investment Supertech 91.4
Baring Private Equity
Partners India
Bangalore-
based RMZ Corp 91.4
For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
Share of SEZ exports in total exports of India 100 per cent FDI permitted in real estate projects within
Special Economic Zone (SEZ)
100 per cent FDI permitted for developing townships within
SEZs with residential areas, markets, playgrounds, clubs,
recreation centers, etc.
Exports from SEZs registered a yoy growth of 15.39 per
cent in 2011–12 and accounted for 30.6 per cent of total
exports during April–December 2012
Industry players, including realtors and property analysts,
are rooting for the creation of "special residential zones"
(SRZs), along the lines of SEZs
Minimum land requirement has been brought down from
1000 hectares to 500 hectares for multi-product SEZ and for
sector-specific SEZs to 50 hectares Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Aranca Research
* - April 2012 to December 2012
10% 12% 26% 28% 25% 31%
90% 88% 74% 72% 75% 69%
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13*
SEZ Exports Other
For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
Ease in housing
finances
• Additional deduction of up to USD1,841 on interests payable on home loans of up to
USD46,032 announced in the Union Budget 2013–14
• To liberalise scheme of interest subversion of 1 per cent on home loan by including loans
of up to USD31,250 for houses that cost up to USD52,080
Housing for
economically weaker
sections
• Allocation of USD1.1 billion for Rural Housing Fund in FY14 budget
• Allocation of USD0.37 billion for Urban Housing Fund in FY14 budget to bridge the huge
shortage of housing in certain urban areas
FDI
• The government has allowed FDI of up to 100 per cent in development projects for
townships and settlements
• FDI of up to 100 per cent is allowed in the hotel and tourism sector through the automatic
route
Source: Company website, Aranca Research,
Notes: sq. ft. - Square Feet
1940 1950 1980 1990 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Development of 22 Urban
colonies
Developed 3000 acre
DLF City in Gurgaon
Focuses on IT Parks and
next generation malls
Building India’s largest mall
in Gurgaon
Market capitalisation of
USD7.2 billion
Largest real estate company
with revenues of
USD1.4 billion (FY13)
Ventures into
grade A office
spaces
Alliance with
Hilton
International
Commenced
development of
DLF Cyber City,
Gurgaon
FY13
USD1.4
billion
turnover
Net land bank of
348 million sq. feet
FY06
USD238
million
turnover
Founded by
Chaudhary
Raghavendra
Singh
Distribution of ongoing projects by area
(as of December 2012)
Key Facts
Started its first project in Mumbai in 1991
National real estate developer with presence across
12 cities
Differentiated joint development business model
resulted in a debt-equity ratio of less than one
The current potential developable area stands at
82.2* million sq ft
Ranked one of India’s top 10 builders by
Construction World Architect & Builder Awards,
2011
Consolidated total income of USD173.1 million in
FY13
Five new projects with 4.3 mn sqft of saleable area
added to portfolio in FY13 YTD
Source: Company website, Aranca Research
* As on December 31, 2012
81.6%
18.4%
Residential
Commercial
Profit before taxes (USD million) Revenues (USD million)
56.5
40.3 44.6
99.1
160.6 173.1
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
Source: Company website, Aranca Research
CAGR: 32.8%
28.6 26.0
18.1 22.2
32.1
51.8
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
CAGR: 19.6%
Real estate demand in education sector
(seven top cities)
The entry of major private players in the education sector
has created vast opportunities for the real estate sector
The top seven cities i.e. Hyderabad, Bengaluru, Mumbai,
Delhi, Pune, Chennai and Kolkata are likely to account for
70 per cent of total demand for real estate in the education
sector
Source: Cushman and Wakefiled, Aranca Research
14
14.5
15
15.5
16
2010
2011F
2012F
2013F
2014F
Area (million square feet)
Incremental demand across seven major cities
(million sq ft)
NCR is expected to have the highest incremental demand
from the education sector
The rising young population of India is expected to drive this
space
Source: Cushman and Wakefiled, Aranca Research
Notes: NCR - National Capital Region
0
1
2
3
4NCR
Mumbai
Pune
ChennaiKolkata
Bengaluru
Hyderabad
Healthcare
• The healthcare sector is estimated to grow at an annual rate of 15 per cent to USD100
billion by 2015
• India is expected to need additional 937,000 beds by 2015
• India still needs to add 3 million hospital beds to meet the global average of three for every
1,000 people
Senior citizen housing
• Emergence of nuclear families and growing urbanisation has given rise to several
townships that are developed to take care of the elderly
• A number of senior citizen housing projects have been planned; the segment is expected
to grow significantly in future
Service apartments
• Growth in the number of tourists has resulted in demand for service apartments
• This demand is likely to be on uptrend and presents opportunities for the unorganised
sector
Source: Fitch Ratings, Aranca Research
Source: Ministry of Tourism, BMI, Aranca Research
Forecasts of foreign tourists arriving in India
(million)
Foreign tourist arrivals are expected to increase at a CAGR
of 11.7 per cent during 2012–15
The number of foreign tourists arriving in India by 2015 is
anticipated to be over 9.2 million
6.6
7.9
8.5 9.2
2012 2013F 2014F 2015F
CAGR: 11.7%
Source: BMI, Aranca Research
Note: F stands for Forecasts
Forecasts of foreign exchange earnings from
tourism in India (USD billion)
Foreign exchange earnings from tourism is expected to rise
at a CAGR of 4.1 per cent during 2012–15
Foreign exchange earned is forecast to cross USD19 billion
in 2015
17.7
18.1
19.0
19.9
2012 2013F 2014F 2015F
CAGR: 4.1%
Source: BMI, Cushman & Wakefield, Aranca Research
Note: F - Forecast
Capacity of hotels in India (‘000) The number of hotel rooms in India as of 2011 stood at
121,000
50,000 new hotel rooms are expected to be added over the
next 4–5 years across India’s top six cities
The number of hotel beds in the country is expected to
increase to 443,000 by 2015
98 109 121
135 154
176 197
210 241
262 295
339
392
443
2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F
Number of hotel rooms Number of hotel beds
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Aranca Research
Office market in Southern India (in million sq ft) The Southern Indian States – Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu
and Karnataka – have been the major drivers of economic
growth in India over the last decade. The three states
together account for about 22 per cent of India’s GDP
Nearly 45 per cent of India’s office stock is represented by
these states; over 64 per cent of the country’s IT SEZs are
housed in this region
Office stock in the Southern cities is projected* to grow at a
CAGR of 8 per cent between 2012 and 2016
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
0
5
10
15
20
25
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012E 2014F 2016F
Supply Net absorption Vacancy Rate - RHS
Note: * - Projections by Jones Lang LaSalle
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Aranca Research
Net absorption rate in Southern India’s residential market is
once again climbing up to pre-crisis peaks; during 1Q12, net
absorption rate stood at 15.1 per cent, compared to 17.8 per
cent in 1Q08
A growing migrant population due to increasing job
opportunities, together with healthy infrastructure
development, is underpinning demand in the region’s
residential real estate market
Residential market in Southern India
(number of units)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1Q08 3Q08 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12
New launches Net absorption Absorption rate - RHS
The Confederation of Real Estate Developers’ Associations of India (CREDAI) National Secretariat, 703, Ansal Bhawan,
16, Kasturba Gandhi Marg, New Delhi – 110 001
Tel: (011) 43126262/43126200
Fax: 91 11 43126211
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.credai.org
Builders' Association of India (BAI) G-1/G-20, Commerce Centre, J. Dadajee Road,
Tardeo, Mumbai – 400034
Tel: 91 22 23514134, 23514802, 23520507
Fax : 91 22 23521328
E-mail: [email protected], [email protected]
Website: www.baionline.in
BFSI: Banking, Financial Services and Insurance
CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate
CBD: Central Business District
FDI: Foreign Direct Investment
FSI: Floor Space Index
HNI: High Net-worth Individual
GOI: Government of India
INR: Indian Rupee
IT/ITeS: Information Technology/Information Technology enabled Services
MNC: Multinational Corporation
NRI: Non Resident Indian
SBD: Special Business District
SEZ: Special Economic Zone
USD: US Dollar
Wherever applicable, numbers have been rounded off to the nearest whole number
Year INR equivalent of one US$
2004-05 44.95
2005-06 44.28
2006-07 45.28
2007-08 40.24
2008-09 45.91
2009-10 47.41
2010-11 45.57
2011-12 47.94
2012-13 54.31
Exchange Rates (Fiscal Year)
Year INR equivalent of one US$
2005 45.55
2006 44.34
2007 39.45
2008 49.21
2009 46.76
2010 45.32
2011 45.64
2012 54.69
2013 54.45
Exchange Rates (Calendar Year)
Average for the year
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