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in in Environmental Environmental
ModelingModelingandand
IndicatorsIndicators
ManagingManaging
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As far as … As far as … mathematics refer mathematics refer to reality, they are to reality, they are not certain; and as not certain; and as far as they are far as they are certain, they do certain, they do not refer to not refer to reality.reality.Einstein’s remarks to the Prussian Academy of Sciences
Einstein gotEinstein gotit rightit right
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Why does uncertainty Why does uncertainty matter?matter?
10.6 million tons of SOx emitted in 2003 in the U.S.
14.4 ug m2 Hg dry deposited in Lake Waccamaw, NC per year
0.131 IQ loss per ppm increase in Hg
U.S. EPA’s Mercury Rule
Credible Credible metrics metrics Credible Credible decisionsdecisions
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Consideration of Uncertainty in
Some Air Quality Examples
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Current AQI - Ozone
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Current AQI - Particle Pollution(PM2.5)
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Current AQI – Particle Pollution(PM2.5)
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Current AQI - Particle Pollution(PM2.5)
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Current AQI - Particle Pollution(PM2.5)
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Current: 1-day forecast guidance for ozone Developed and deployed initially for
Northeastern US, September 2004 Deploy Nationwide by 2009
Intermediate (5-7 years): Develop and test capability to forecast particulate matter
concentration • Particulate size < 2.5 microns
Longer range (within 10 years): Extend air quality forecast range to 48-72 hours Include broader range of significant pollutants
National Air Quality ForecastingPlanned Capabilities
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EnviroFlash
• EnviroFlash gives individuals instant information that they can customize for their own needs, allowing them to protect their health and their family’s.
• Air quality information allows them to adjust your lifestyle when necessary on unhealthy air quality days.
• EnviroFlash is especially helpful for people with sensitivities, such as the young, people with asthma, and the elderly.
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Satellite Data
• Emerging source of data(1-10 km grids)
• Spatial and Temporal Gaps
• Algorithm uncertainties(clouds)
• Routinely available data
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Can Satellite Data help assess influences of large wildfires on surface PM2.5 for public health assessments?
Data source: NASA MODIS-Aqua
Alaskan Fire Complexes
June 30, 2004
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18 July 2004 Smoke from Alaskan/Yukon Fires Over U.S.
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19 July 2004 Smoke from Alaskan/Yukon Fires Impact U.S.
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12 September 2002
MODIS AODLinear Interpolation Surface PM2.5 Monitors
Satellite measurements capture important spatial gradients and meteorology influences, extremely important for public health side of air quality.
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“Real-Time” Fire and Smoke
Information
Two Different User
Perspectives
Of Uncertainty
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CMAQ Uncertainty
Forecastingversus
Environmental Decision Making(i.e. Developing AQ Implementation Plans
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CMAQ Modeling System
SMOKE
Anthro and Biogenic Emissions processing
Fifth Generation Mesoscale Model (MM5)
(WRF in 2005)
CMAQ AQ Model-
Chemical-Transport Computations
Met-Chem Interface Processor (MCIP)
Met. data prep
NOAA Weather Observations
EPA Emissions Inventory
Hourly 3-D Gridded Chemical Concentrations
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Observed Forecast
7/21/04: 8-hour Peak Ozone
7/22/04: 8-hour Peak Ozone
ForecastObserved
Forecast and Observed Surface Ozone Distributions
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June 9th Peak Ozone Forecast
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-125 -120 -115 -110 -105 -100 -95 -90 -85 -80 -75 -70 -65
25
30
35
40
45
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SO 4 from C astnet and STNLM 8, Ju ly 17 - Aug 13, 2001
CMAQ
REMSAD
Observed Data
Sulfate PM July 17- Aug. 13 Average
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Monthly Average SO4 for Ohio River Valley (2001)
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
[SO
4 ] u
g/m
3
Observations(CASTNET)
CMAQ
REMSAD
CMAQ’s predictions are much closer to the observations than REMSAD’s
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Models in Environmental RegulatoryDecision Making
Committee on Models in the Regulatory Decision Process
Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology
Division on Earth and Life Studies
June 2007
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Life-Cycle of a Model
Problem Formulation
Conceptual Model
Constructed Model
Model Use
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Life-Cycle Model Evaluation
All models should have a life-cycle evaluation plan of a size and complexity commensurate with its regulatory significance
Plan should address how model evaluation will occur throughout a model’s life cycle
The committee did not make organizational recommendations of how EPA should achieve this
A conceptual commitment to life cycle model evaluation is needed
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Two ApproachesRepresent uncertainties probabilistically and calculate the probability distribution of any model result
difficult to carry out obscures the sensitivities of the outcome to
individual sources of uncertainty
Scenario assessment and/or sensitivity analysis often more transparent may ignore important information corresponding to
other scenarios not included in assessment and whatever is known about their relative likelihoods
Assessing/Communicating Uncertainty
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Assessing/Communicating Uncertainty
Many instances require probabilistic methods to properly characterize uncertainties, propagate them through the modeling exercise, and clearly communicate the overall uncertainties
Recommend the use of case-specific hybrid approaches in which some unknown quantities are treated probabilistically, and others can be manipulated in a scenario-assessment mode by the decision makers
Requires communication between modelers and decision-makers
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Examples of TransAtlantic Examples of TransAtlantic Activity on Uncertainty Activity on Uncertainty AnalysesAnalyses• Harmoni-CA guidance on Harmoni-CA guidance on uncertainty for Water Framework uncertainty for Water Framework DirectiveDirective
• Dutch National Institute for Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) work on Environment (RIVM) work on uncertainty in environmental uncertainty in environmental informationinformation
• TransAtlantic Uncertainty TransAtlantic Uncertainty Colloquium (TAUC) in 2006 in Colloquium (TAUC) in 2006 in Washington, DCWashington, DC
• US EPA call for research in US EPA call for research in uncertainty in integrated models uncertainty in integrated models
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Harmoni-CA guidance on Harmoni-CA guidance on uncertainty for Water uncertainty for Water Framework DirectiveFramework Directive““Estimates of … level of Estimates of … level of confidence and precision of … confidence and precision of … results provided by … monitoring results provided by … monitoring programmes shall be given ..”programmes shall be given ..”Water Framework
Directive
Asked to estimate Asked to estimate vulnerability to vulnerability to pollution in a pollution in a Copenhagen Copenhagen catchment, 5 catchment, 5 consultants gave 5 consultants gave 5 different estimatesdifferent estimates
Refsgaard et al, 2005. Harmoni-CA Guidance to Uncertainty Analysis
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Present value of Present value of income loss/child income loss/child = $= $8,8008,800 * d(IQ) * d(IQ)
d(IQ) = d(IQ) = 0.1310.131 * c(Hg) * c(Hg) in maternal hairin maternal hair
c(Hg) = c(Hg) = f f ((
))
• c(MeHg) in fishc(MeHg) in fish• fish consumption ratefish consumption rate• no. of pregnant women no. of pregnant women
who consume fish who consume fish
Eulerian air Eulerian air model (36 x model (36 x 36 km grid)36 km grid)
Hg depositionHg deposition
US EPA call for research in US EPA call for research in uncertainty in integrated uncertainty in integrated models models How does How does
uncertainty uncertainty propagate propagate withinwithin and and acrossacross models models used to develop used to develop metrics?metrics?
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US EPA call for research in US EPA call for research in uncertainty in integrated modelsuncertainty in integrated models
Examples of proposed research
• using Sensitivity Analysis for air quality models,
• using Bayesian approaches to deal with discount rates to analyze the economic impacts of climate change, and
• using Monte Carlo to look at probability distributions in mercury regulation.
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2006 TransAtlantic Uncertainty 2006 TransAtlantic Uncertainty Colloquium (TAUC) in Washington, Colloquium (TAUC) in Washington, DCDC
To discuss the legal, To discuss the legal, scientific, and political scientific, and political consequences of consequences of uncertainty in uncertainty in environmental models and environmental models and metrics from the metrics from the perspective of the EC and perspective of the EC and the USthe US
See http://www.modeling.uga.edu/tauc/
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EC-US EPA EC-US EPA Implementing Implementing ArrangementArrangementCooperation may focus on Cooperation may focus on methods to:methods to:
• formally analyze and manage formally analyze and manage uncertainty; anduncertainty; and
• provide stakeholders with provide stakeholders with uncertainty information so uncertainty information so they may engage fully in they may engage fully in environmental policy-makingenvironmental policy-making
Adapted from 2007 EC-EPA Implementing Arrangement
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Opportunities for Opportunities for continued collaborationcontinued collaborationJoint call for research on Uncertainty Joint call for research on Uncertainty AnalysesAnalyses Funding institutions across US and EU could Funding institutions across US and EU could collaborate on similar language (encouraging collaborate on similar language (encouraging TransAtlantic investigation), jointly review TransAtlantic investigation), jointly review proposals, and co-host workshopsproposals, and co-host workshops
Staff ExchangeStaff Exchange Institutionalize program to allow Institutionalize program to allow environmental agency staff to conduct environmental agency staff to conduct discrete, short-term projects in uncertainty discrete, short-term projects in uncertainty analyses and indicator developmentanalyses and indicator development