DowntownSeattlefromtheSpaceNeedlewebcam,August3,2017,PM2.5 =57µg/m3
Impactsofthe2017WildfiresonO3aroundthePNWDanJaffe,CrystalMcClure,Honglian Gao,Claire
Buysse,AaronKaulfus (UAH)UniversityofWashington
FundingfromNOAA-FIREXprogram
NOAA-HMSFireandSmokeProductwithPM2.5Sept.6th,2017
<12ug/m3
12.1-35.5ug/m3
35.5-55.5ug/m3
55.5– 150.5ug/m3
>150.5ug/m3
Airnowtech toolwithHMSsmokeandPM2.5Aug3,2017
DailyO3 inEnumclaw,WA
HighestO3 inlast10years,Aug3,2017,103ppb
ObservedandAIRPACTfireimpactsforKennewick
ArehighPMlevelssuppressingO3formation?
ObservedPM2.5 ObservedO3
PM2.5 O3
ResultsfromBoise,Summer2017
6
Averages PM2.5µg/m3
COppb
MDA8ppb
NOyppbv
PANppb
PAN/NOyppb/ppb
Fireinfluenced
34.5 464 58.4* 17.3 0.90 0.0626
Non-fireinfluenced
9.2 261 41.5 14.1 0.61 0.0479
1. Experimentdates:Aug1-Oct1,2017;45dayswithsmoke!2. EnhancementinMDA8onsmokedays:~17ppb.3. Smokedayshad~3ppbmoreNOy,butonly~0.3ppbmorePAN.4. BothNOy andVOCslikelycontributedtotheenhancedO3.
(McClureandJaffe,2018)
ResultsfromBoise,Summer2017
7McClureandJaffe,2018(in-review)
8
HowdoO3 andPMrelateinurbansmokeevents?AfternoonO3 whenHMSshowssmokeoverhead.
Ø AfternoonO3(1-6pm)forMay-Sept2013-2017for7citiesinwesternU.S.(NorthBendWA,PortlandOR,St.Lukes IR,EugeneOR,ChicoCA,ArdenArcade/SacramentoCA.
Ø HMSsmokeproductisnotaperfectindicatorofboundarylayer smoke.PMandO3positivelycorrelatedupto~50µg/m3
, negativelycorrelatedoruncorrelatedathigherconcs.
Ø WorkofClaireBuysse (UW)
SinceEulerianmodelshavedifficultyinmodelingwildfireO3,howcanwefindthe“extraO3”duetothefires?
• WehavedevelopedastatisticalapproachthatmodelsO3 asafunctionofnumerousmeteorologicalvariables.
• WeuseGeneralizedAdditiveModeling(GAM),whichisaflexiblemethod,similartomachinelearningthatusesatrainingdatasettoidentifypatternsandrelationships.Thisapproachcanincorporatelinear,non-linearandcategoricalrelationships.
• GoodO3 predictorsaredailymaxtemp,RH,dailyavg vectorwindspeed,dailyaveragevectorwinddirection,back-trajectorydistanceanddirection,500mb heights,etc.
• Modelcancapturebetween50-80%ofthevarianceindailyMDA8s,dependingonthecity.
• Gongetal2017(EST). 9
StatisticalApproach:GeneralizedAdditiveModelØ Examinestherelationshipbetweentheobservedmaximumdaily8-
houraverage(MDA8)andmeteorologicalfactors.Thisisatypeof“machinelearning”usingatrainingdataset.
g(O3i)=f1(tempi)+f2 (WSi)+f3 (WDi)+…+residualiWheref1, f2,etc are“link”functionswhichareobtainedfromsplinefitsto
theobservations.The“i”referstoeachdailyobservation.Ø GAMscanincorporatenumerical,ordinalorcategoricalvariables.Ø Possiblefactorstoincludearetemp,WS,WD,RH,solarflux,trajectory
distance,etc.Ø Use“mgcv”packagein“R”software.Ø Outliers(highresiduals)representanadditionalO3 sourceandare
candidatesforfurtherinvestigation.Insomecases,statisticalmodelingcansupportexceptionaleventdesignations.
Jaffeetal2004;2013;Camalier etal2007;CARB2011;EPA2015;Sun2015;Gongetal2017
ImpactonO3 insmokeatEnumclaw:2008-2017data
Gongetal2017,Jaffeetal2018,Gaoetal2018
Aug.3rd,2017ExtraO3 duetofiresis27ppb
Enumclaw-August2017
• Aug.3rd:• PM2.556ug/m3• O3 residual=27ppb
• Aug.9th:• PM2.546ug/m3• O3 residual27ppb
MDA8vs DailyMaxTemp-Enumclaw
MDA8vs DailyMaxTemp-EnumclawNosmokeg.t.70F:MDA8=DMT*1.68– 84.86
Smokeg.t.70F:MDA8=DMT*1.93- 100.85
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40 50 60 70 80 90 100
GAMfito
zone
MDA
8resid
uals(ppb
v)
Dailymaximumambienttemperature(oF)
Enumclaw,WA
non-smokedays smoke
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110
GAMfito
zone
MDA
8resid
uals(ppb
v)
Dailymaximumambienttemperature(oF)
Kennewick,WA
"non-smokedays
smokedays
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
GAMfito
zone
MDA
8resid
uals(pp
bv)
Maximumdailyambienttemperature(oF)
Vancouver,WA
-30
-20
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0
10
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30
50 60 70 80 90 100 110
GAMfito
zone
MDA
8resid
uals
Dailymaximumambienttemperature(oF)
Eugene,OR
non-smokedays smokedays
-30
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10
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30
50 60 70 80 90 100 110
GAMfito
zone
MDA
8resid
uals(ppb
v)
Dailymaximumambienttemperature(oF)
Portland,OR
Series2 non-smoke
SomekeyConclusionsonsmoke• SmokeeffectsontheMDA8aregenerallysubtleadding,onaverage~5-8ppbtotheMDA8(range0-30ppb)
• SmokeimpactsonO3 aremostsignificantonwarmdays,whenO3 wouldhavebeenhighalready.
• AtveryhighPMlevels(>60ug/m3)smokeimpactsonO3arereduced.
Arefiresgettingworse?
Summer2017:Worstairqualityindecades
Summer2017:Worstairqualityindecades
Trendin98th percentileofPM2.5 for1988-2016
McClureandJaffe,PNAS,in-press.
Summary• Summer2017hadtheworstairqualityindecadesforbothPMand
O3 intheNWduetowildfires.• Satellitedataprovidecriticalinformationonfiresandsmoke
transport,butnotnecessarilysurfacelevelPM.WhenHMSsmokepresent,wefindanenhancementinsurfacePM40-70%ofthetimeinPNW.
• Wildfireemissionscan enhanceO3 inurbanareas.Weuseastatisticalmodeltoshowthatfirescontribute0-30ppb(8-houraverage),whichissufficienttoputmanysitesoverthe70ppbstandard.SmokeimpactsonO3 aregreatestonwarmdays.
• AthighPM2.5 (greaterthan~60ug/m3)O3 enhancementsarereduced.
• Overthelastseveraldecadestheannual98th percentileforPM2.5concentrationsareincreasingduetowildfires overlargepartsofthewesternU.S.
Spares
NOAAHMSFireandSmokeProduct(viaAirnowtech)Sept.8th,2017
Butsatellitesensorsonlyshowwhatisinthecolumnoverhead.NeedtocombinewithsurfacePMobservations.
HMSdays/HMSdayswithPM(2006-2017data)
LocationDays peryearwithHMSsmoke
FractionofHMSdayswithenhanced PM
Arden/Sacramento,CA 35.8 0.53Chico,CA 40.6 0.69
St.Lukes/Boise,ID 43.0 0.74NorthBend,WA 23.6 0.54Vancouver,WA 26.5 0.45Enumclaw,WA 24.8 0.40Eugene,OR 31.7 0.53Portland,OR 26.5 0.42ElPaso,TX 11.9 0.19Houston,TX 32.4 0.28
*0.39forMay-Sept.
EnhancedPMisdefinedasmean+1SDofnon-HMSsmokedays.