How well can we predict the unpredictable climate?Environment and security seminar, Oslo, 8 Dec. 2004
Prof. Olav Orheim, Director, Norwegian Polar Institute
How well can we predict the unpredictable climate?Environment and security seminar, Oslo, 8 Dec. 2004
Prof. Olav Orheim, Director, Norwegian Polar Institute
Content of this presentation
The overall climate picture–Uncertainty - the ”loaded dice” and
can we insure against the risk?– Lack of knowledge and IPY 2007-2008
We are the first generation that influences global climate and the last generation to escape the
consequences
Norwegian Glacier Museum, 1991
JTH 17-07-2001 9 COP6bis /SBSTA
SPM 1b
Variations of the Earth’s surface temperature for the past 1,000 years
Predicting the unpredictable climate
The greenhouse effect is certain - without it no humans!
Uncertainties for the future include:
• Balance between natural and human effects, including variations in output of the sun.
• Feedbacks, including clouds, albedo, snow and ice, vegetation, carbon storage, atmosphere/ocean interaction
Averages can be predicted – not single events.
This is the ”loaded dice”
Comparing observed and projected changes
Comparing observed and projected changes
1954-2003 Winter (D,J,F)
1954-2003 Winter (D,J,F)
1990’s -2090’s Winter (D,J,F)
1990’s -2090’s Winter (D,J,F)
Southern Europe July/August temperatures, as deviation from 1961-1990 mean.
* below is 2003 summer
Observed (black) and climate models (colour) Source: Stott, Stone, Allen. Nature, 2. Dec. 2004
Daily mortality, B-W, GermanyPer 100 000 people. Note 2003 heatwave
Source: Schär and Jendritzky, Nature 2 December 2004.B-W = Baden-Wurttemberg, Sozialministerium
The Greenland Ice SheetThe Greenland Ice Sheet
Satellite Data Documents the Changes
Satellite Data Documents the Changes
Insuring against climate change?
Association of British Insurers in October 2004:• ”Global economic losses caused by natural weather catastrophies have increased 10-fold over past 40 years.”
• ”Damage now increasing 2-4%/year from changing climate.”
Mainly floods, storms,avalanches
Sea level now rising 2 mm/year, Holland sinks 2 cm/year
The Pentagon weather nightmare (“Abrupt climate change”)
“The day after tomorrow”
Understanding and Projecting the Changes in the Oceanic Conveyor Belt is a Critical Question for Science
Understanding and Projecting the Changes in the Oceanic Conveyor Belt is a Critical Question for Science
Geophysical InstituteUniversity of Bergen
Nansen Environmental andRemote Sensing Center
Hansen, Turrell and Osterhus (2001), updated by Hansen et al. (2004)
Observed overflow through the Faroe-Bank Channel
No trend – but the time series is short
Observations so far show no weakening of the ocean transport
International Polar Year 2007-2008
• An intense burst of activity combining, ground observations and satellites, to give a data set for improving climate models and predictions
• A permanent legacy of improved Arctic cooperation
• Arctic/Antarctic ocean teleconnections – thermohaline circulation and the climate of lower latitudes