High Resolution Forecasts at NCEP:2014 Efforts and Future Plans
Geoff DiMego et al.Mesoscale Modeling Branch EMC/NCEP301-683-3764 [email protected]
WoF/HIW 2 April 2014
T O P I C S• Sochi runs• HiResWindow upgrade (May)• Fire Wx runs• NAM upgrade (June)• View of the future
NMMB Model Forecasts for SochiWMO’s Frost-2014
• Matthew Pyle (high-res deterministic)• Dusan Jovic (ensemble system setup)• Steven Levine (processing XML obs)• NCEP Central Operations 9/3/1 km 7 member 7km Ens.
Deterministic NMMB Run Configuration• Triply nested 9/3/1km NMMB prediction system centered near Sochi• Used together with COSMO-RU2, INCA, GEM, Harmonie • Initialized off GFS, run 4 times per day, forecasts to hrs • GRIB2 grids provided every 30 minutes • BUFR/XML soundings at gaming venues• 50 vertical levels with model top of 50 hPa• Physics:
Microphysics Ferrier (w/ a little Aligo)
Convection Betts Miller Janjic (very slight)
PBL / turbulence Mellor Yamada Janjic
Land Surface NOAH
Radiation RRTM (SW & LW)
1 km deterministic run, total precip (mm) for 24 h ending 00Z 14 January
model (obs)
1 km deterministic run, total precip (mm) for 24 h ending 12Z 13 March
model (obs)
Getting the radar obs for verification has become problematic …
HiResWindow Upgrade OverviewMay 2014 Timeframe
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Current prod Planned upgradeModel code version ARW & NMM WRFv3.1+
(early 2010 version)ARW WRFv3.5
NMMB August 2013 version
Horizontal grid spacing
4 km WRF-NMM5.15 km WRF-ARW
3.0 - 3.6 km NMMB3.5 - 4.2 km WRF-ARW
Vertical levels 35 40 (finer resolution in pbl)
Initial conditions NAM/GFS RAP/GFS (retain diversity wrt NAM nest)
Microphysics (ARW) WSM3 WSM6 (more sophisticated and appropriate for sub-10 km grid spacing)
Microphysics (NMMB) Ferrier Ferrier/Aligo - special HiresW version (enhances convective storm performance)
Radiation (NMMB) GFDL RRTM (more physically realistic parameterization; NAM also making this
switch)
HiResWindow Upgrade Overview~May 2014 Timeframe
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8
18Z
06Z00Z,12Z 06Z,18Z
00Z,12Z
Domains and run times
+ Guam00Z,12Z
current future
06Z,18Z
00Z,12Z 06Z,18Z
00Z,12Z
+ Guam00Z,12Z
All Runs:4 km WRF-NMM5.15 km WRF-ARW
Alaska:3 km NMMB3.5 km WRF-ARW
CONUS:3.6 km NMMB4.2 km WRF-ARW
HI/Guam/PR : 3 km NMMB3.8 km WRF-ARW
NMMB Warm Season Retrospective QPF
Improved Bias
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June 1-19, 201324 h precip verificationover eastern CONUS
Para CONUS NMMB
Ops East CONUS WRF-NMM
8
bias=11
Equitable Threat Score
Frequency Bias
E. CONUS QPF: Combined Feb+Jun 2013 Retro Cases + Dec/13-Feb/14 Real Time00-24 hr + 12-36 hr + 24-48 hr Periods
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Para NMMBOpnl WRF-NMM
Equitable Threat Score
Frequency Bias
1
2
Equitable Threat Score
1
2Frequency Bias
Opnl WRF-ARW Para WRF-ARW
Diffuse convective signals in opnl WRF-NMM are a perennial complaint of SPC
NMMB Exhibits More Intense Convective Signals, More In Line With Observations
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operational WRF-NMM
parallelNMMB
Model and observed 1 km AGL radar, 09Z 27 April 2011
obs
para NMMB shows stronger, sharper line
ARW Too Exhibits More Intense Convective Signals, More In Line With
Observation
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para WRF-ARW better w/:
•linear convection in eastern KS•capturing isolated nature of cells over KS/NE.
operationalWRF-ARW
parallelWRF-ARW
obs
Modeled and observed 1 km AGL radar, 00Z 20 May 2011
Although seen in this case, diffuse convective signals NOT a consistent problem of WRF-ARW
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Model and observed 1 km AGL radar, 00Z 22 December 2013
BLIND TEST: Which is WRF-ARW and Which is NMMB
parallel?????
parallel?????
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Model and observed 1 km AGL radar, 00Z 22 December 2013
NMMB on the left and ARW on the right
parallelNMMB
parallelWRF-ARW
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Model and observed 1 km AGL radar, 00Z 22 December 2013
More intense convective signals, more in line with observations
operational WRF-NMM
parallelNMMB
Much sharper and more intense leading edge in para, position also better
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Model and observed 1 km AGL radar, 00Z 22 December 2013
More intense convective signals, more in line with observations
operational WRF-ARW
parallelWRF-ARW
Stronger radar signal (40+ dbZ, yellow/ orange/red) packed in a narrower band in para, more like obs.
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/
Subject: Re: [Owles_participants] Beautiful vortex now!Date: Wed, 18 Dec 2013 10:16:18 -0500From: David Zaff – NOAA Federal CC: <owles_participants@___.ucar.edu>
FYI this is the 2nd time the 1.3 WRF [sic] pickedup one of these features ... Attached is from the 36hr forecast from yesterdays 12Z run - note the mesolow over the east end of the lake.
It's about 3 hrs too slow, but it's there.
12z 17 Dec 2013 36hr 1.3km NMM Fire Wx NestWinds @ 10m & Simulated Composite Reflectivity
“VT 18z Wed: Flow becoming aligned”
12z 17 Dec 2013 36hr 1.3km NMM Fire Wx NestWinds @ 10m & Simulated Composite Reflectivity
“VT 18z Wed: Flow becoming aligned”
Subject: Fire weather [OWLes Runs of NAM FireWx]Date: Thu, 23 Jan 2014 08:19:53 -0700From: Jim Steenburgh [University of Utah]To: Geoff DiMego <[email protected]>
From today's call: "Kudos to the 1.3 km fire weather nest which does a nice job of picking up on mesolows. This model has been doing phenomenal for this winter." – Dave Zaff, NWS Buffalo.
Nice work!
NMMB Model ChangesFor NAM Upgrade
~June 2014 Timeframe
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• Replace legacy GFDL radiation with RRTM• Modified Gravity Wave Drag/Mountain Blocking
– More responsive to subgrid-scale terrain variability– Target : Improve synoptic performance without adversely
impacting 10-m wind forecasts• New version of Betts-Miller-Janjic convection
– Moister convective profiles, convection triggers less– Target : Improve QPF bias from 12-km parent
• Ferrier-Aligo microphysics• Modified treatment of snow cover/depth
– Use forecast rime factor in land-surface physics– Target : Reduce snow depth in marginal winter conditions
w/complex precipitation type• Reduce roughness length for 5 vegetation types
– Target : Improved 10-m wind in eastern CONUS
NMMB Model UpgradesTargeting NAM Nests
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• Current NAM nests – 4 km CONUS, 6 km Alaska, 3 km Hawaii/Puerto Rico,
“Placeable” FireWx 1.33 km (CONUS) or 1.5 km (Alaska) nest.– CONUS/AK/HI/PR nests used as input to NAM Downscaled
(NDFD) grids– All have “reduced” convective triggering– All run to 60-h except 36-h for fire weather nest
• Nests in NAM upgrade; no change in resolution– All nests, except Alaska, will run with explicit convection– Measures to improve severe storm signatures:
• Extensive modifications to microphysics (Ferrier-Aligo)• Reduce 2nd order diffusion in nests (improves vertical
storm structure in cases suggested by SPC)• Separate microphysics species advection for all nests
except 6 km Alaska
Seasonal QPF ETS (top)/Freq. Bias (bottom) : Ops (red) vs Pll (dashed blue) NAM 12 km over CONUS
25Green Line : Bias=1.0
Fall 20139/1 – 11/30/13
Winter 201312/1/13-2/28/14
Bias increased in Fall
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Ops NAM (solid), Parallel NAM(dashed line)24h,48h,72h forecast ETS at 0.25”/day
12 mo. Running Mean 2007-2013
April 2012
DC Derecho rerun: 18z cycle 28 June, 20124 km CONUS nest and 1.33 km Fire Wx nest
CFSv3
Convective Allowing Data Assimilation – ARW
Convective Allowing Data Assimilation – NMMB3D URMA / RUA / AoR
ARW HRRRE members CONUS and Alaska
NMMB HRRRE members CONUS, Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto RicoNMMB Storm Scale Ensemble members within CONUS and/or Alaska
GD
AS
GD
AS
GD
AS
GD
AS
GFS
GFS
GFS GFS
GEF
S
GEF
S
GEF
S
GEF
SHur
rican
e
Hur
rican
e
Hur
rican
e
Hur
rican
e
NAM
ext
NAM
ext
NAM
ext
NAM
ext
S R E F
S R E F
S R E F
S R E F
RTO
FS
RTO
FS
RTO
FS
RTO
FS
Projected End State of 2 petaflop WCOSS
T R A D E S P A C EDECISIONS MADE TO MAKE THINGS FIT
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Start of WCOSS Phase1 Current
End of WCOSS Phase 1 ~2015
End of WCOSS-era 2 petaflop Machine
SREF continental scale SREF continental scale SREF continental scale
WRF-ARW, WRF-NMM, NMMB WRF-ARW & NMMB WRF-ARW & NMMB
7 each = 21 members 16 km
13 each = 26 members ~15 km
13 each = 26 members ~15 km (parent)
35 levels 6 hourly to 84 hr
40-60 levelsNARRE-TL run hourly to 18 hr 6 hourly to 84 hr
50-60 levelsNARRE run hourly to 18 hr 6 hourly to 84 hr
Product streams for all scales will need to be added, consolidated, repurposed & renamed. Products may have later delivery times.
Convection-Allowing-Scale Convection-Allowing-Scale Convection-Allowing-Scale
Irregular suite of guidance 3-6km[HiResWindows & NAM nests]~6 hourly to 48/60 hr for CONUS, Alaska, HI, PR
Single hrly 3 km HRRR +NAM nestRun to 15 hr for CONUSUpgrade irregular suite to ~3 km 6 hrly to 48 hr + 6 hrly NCASE-TL run to 36 hr for CONUS, Alaska, HI, PR
HRRREMultiple hrly 3 km run to 24hr for: And 6 hrly 5 km ext. to 48 hr for:CONUS, Alaska, Hi, PR
Storm Scale Storm Scale Storm Scale
Single placeable sub-nest 1.33-1.5 km Run 6 hourly to 36 hr
Single placeable/movable sub-nest 1-1.5 kmRun 6 hourly to 36 hr
Multiple placeable/movable sub-nests ~1 km Run hourly to 18 hr
Mesoscale Ensembles Replace Regional Deterministic Guidance
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WILL BE A MAJOR CHALLENGE
3 km CONUSRun to 18 hr
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12 km parent*Run to 18 hr
3 km PR-HispRun to 18 hr
3 km Hawaii Run to 18 hr 1 km FireWx
Run to 18 hr
3 km AlaskaRun to 18 hr
1 km FireWxRun to 18 hr
Every NMMB-based member of the hourly HRRRE will have this makeupEvery ARW-based member of the hourly HRRRE will have this makeup
* Parent may be replaced by global or global ensembles if performance warrants
Every NMMB-based member of SREF (extensions of HRRRE members) will have this makeupEvery ARW-based member of SREF (extensions of HRRRE members) will have this makeup
5 km CONUSRun from 18 to 48 hr
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15 km parent*Run from 18 to 84 hr
5 km Hawaii Run from 18 to 48 hr
5 km PR-HispRun from 18 to 48 hr
5 km AlaskaRun from 18 to 48 hr
* Parent may be replaced by global ensembles if performance warrants
Besides the NAMRR, be looking for …
4D EnVar for the NCEP GFSDaryl Kleist
NOAA/NWS/NCEPEnvironmental Modeling Center
Global Climate and Weather Modeling BranchData Assimilation Team
With acknowledgements to John Derber (EMC), Dave Parrish (EMC), Jeff Whitaker (NOAA/ESRL), Kayo Ide (UMD), Ricardo Todling (NASA/GMAO), and many others
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/annualreviews/NCEPmodelReview-2013.html 32